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🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82

🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations

🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure

💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio
🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target)

📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week

🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep up
No Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week.

📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video.

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!

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🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.

🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west.

🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies.

💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply.

⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August.

🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara.

📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide.

🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex.

🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.

🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.

📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.

💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.

🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace. 

🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.

🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.

🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽

📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱

🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽

📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.

🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains.

🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week.

⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive.

🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower.

📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.

🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.

💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.

🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.

🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff
Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.

🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt
Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.

📊 USDA Report Day
USDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.

🌱 Crop Conditions Update
Corn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.

🚢 Export Inspections
Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.

💰 Flash Sale Alert
USDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.

🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.

⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.

📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.

🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.

💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.

📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.

🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.

🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.

🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.

⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.

⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions.

🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably.

📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex.

🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves.

🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade.

⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too.

🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support.

💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large.

🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%.

⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace.

⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy.

🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling over 2% to settle near $75/barrel, its lowest since early March. Progress in US-Iran talks and reports of Iran getting approval to sell petroleum products pressured the market, with traders looking ahead to a potentially reopened Strait of Hormuz.

🌽🌱 Corn and soybeans moved lower Monday, with Dec26 corn down ~4 cents to $4.40 and Nov26 soybeans down a penny to $11.42. Falling crude, a firmer dollar, and favorable Corn Belt conditions weighed on prices, though excess rain in some areas is raising minor concern.

🌧️🚜 Weekend storms brought rain to Nebraska but also hail and wind damage in spots. Coverage was uneven across the state, and despite the moisture, much of Nebraska remains in drought with more rain and cooler temps expected this week.

✅📊 Crop conditions held mostly steady, with corn at 68% good/excellent and soybeans at 66%, both above their averages. Winter wheat slipped to 26% good/excellent (well below average) while harvest is moving at its fastest pace since 2012.

💰📑 The CFTC's COT report showed funds turning more bearish on corn and soybeans last week. Managed money grew its corn net short to 49k contracts (largest since early Feb) and cut soybean net longs to 54k (smallest since early Feb), while adding modestly to SRW wheat longs.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage is set to hit a record high, per AgRural, up 0.9% to 121.09 million acres. It'd be the 20th straight annual increase but the smallest gain in two decades, as high input costs and tighter credit slow expansion.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years.

⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures, arguing the products should be regulated as swaps under Dodd-Frank rather than futures. CME shares have dropped ~9% since the approval as the new contracts have already generated over $5 billion in trading activity.

🌧️ Widespread rain (and some flooding) improved drought conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with just 13% of the region now in drought versus 36% at the start of the year. The High Plains, however, remains largely dry and continues to struggle.

🛢️ US-Iran peace talks made progress over the weekend with a 60-day roadmap and a new direct communication line, even as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. CENTCOM says the strait remains open, and WTI crude is trading lower near $75/bbl despite the back-and-forth.

🌾 Fertilizer prices are sliding as the Middle East war premium fades, with benchmark urea prices down ~50% from their April peak. Weak farmer demand and China's plan to resume exports are adding further pressure, though phosphate prices stay elevated on a sulfur shortage.

📦 Corn export sales rose 16% week-over-week with Spain as the top buyer, while soybean sales beat expectations at 424,900mt behind strong Egyptian demand. New-crop wheat sales came in softer, down 40% from the prior week, with Japan leading purchases.

🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral, with on-feed totals up 2% year-over-year even as placements and marketings ran below last year's levels. The bigger story remains the historically low US cattle herd, setting up for tighter supplies until rebuilding eventually kicks in.

🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame.

⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May.

📊🌾 S&P Global Energy completed the study, and one US farmer summed it up simply: too much supply chasing too little demand. See graphics from the report below, and click the link to view the full report.

🌪️⚠️ Severe weather moved through parts of the Midwest last night, with tornadoes confirmed near Harpers Ferry, IA and Charleston, IL. Surrounding areas also experienced heavy winds and hail.

🌧️🗺️ A band stretching from central Iowa through central Illinois and into Indiana picked up 1"–3" of rain in the 24 hours ended at midnight. See rain maps below.

🫘🦠 Excessive rainfall across the Midwest and Delta has led to soybean disease pressure, including Rhizoctonia and Pythium. Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and other states have seen over 8" of rain in the last 30 days.

📈🌾 Grain markets finished higher on Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge. The Jul26 HRW contract gained nearly 19 cents to close near $6.53/bu, while Dec26 corn gained more than 6 cents to close near $4.49/bu.

🇨🇳🫘 Rumors of Chinese interest in US grains helped support Wednesday's rally. USDA confirmed a flash sale of 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, which many see as a possible confirmation of that Chinese demand.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism
Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short-covering and technical buying; Kansas City wheat slipped.

🌎 USMCA talks add uncertainty to trade outlook
U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington this week to negotiate the future of USMCA, focusing on agriculture and energy. Tensions rose after President Trump संकेत he may not renew the deal. Mexico and Canada accounted for $58.6B in U.S. ag exports in 2025 (over one-third of the total), making the outcome critical—especially as China remains an inconsistent buyer. Another round of talks is set for mid-July in Mexico City.

🌧️ Weather mostly favorable, with storm risks
The Corn Belt is expected to see widespread rainfall over the next 5–7 days, supporting crop development. However, heavier totals in parts of MO, IL, KY, IA, and IN could cause localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today (damaging winds, hail, tornado risk), while cooler-than-normal temps are expected over the next 6–10 days.

⛽ Biofuels seen as key to demand growth
A study from S&P Global Energy highlights ethanol demand as the primary driver of corn usage growth (≈83% since 2000). Expanding E15 nationwide is viewed as the easiest path to boost demand, though Senate resistance remains. Without stronger biofuel demand, the report warns of a long-term oversupply in U.S. agriculture.

🌽 Acreage outlook edges higher
S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its 2026 acreage forecasts: corn at 96M acres (+800K vs. prior) and soybeans at 85.3M (+300K). That compares to 95.2M corn and 83.4M soybean acres last year. USDA last pegged 2026 acreage at 95.3M (corn) and 84.7M (beans), with updated figures due June 30.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress
US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace.

📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes
Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping.

🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained
Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year.

🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong
NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply.

🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid
US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year.

🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle
The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌍 Geopolitics
🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons.
🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday.

🌽 Grain Markets
🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude.
🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations.
🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies.

🌦️ Weather
⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding.
🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains.

📊 Funds (CFTC)
🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25.
🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February.
🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts).

🥩 Cattle
🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere.
🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses.
⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About
The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐

📉 Grain Markets Slip
Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices.

🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag
Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵

🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes
Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈

🚢 Export Snapshot
Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀

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📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates? 

⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week. 

🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts. 

📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act. 

⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data. 

🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.

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⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️
Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵

🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉
Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊

🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥
WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢

🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋
The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀

🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂
The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪

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🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986.

📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand.

🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks.

💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure.

🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers.

🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.

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🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices.

🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Temperatures will stay above normal near-term before cooling in the extended period.

🇺🇸 President Trump visited Wisconsin Friday to address farmer concerns over rising input costs and limited market access. He expressed confidence that export conditions and overall farm economics will improve within the next three months.

📊 The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers were heavy sellers across the grain complex for the week ending June 2. Funds have shed 225k corn contracts since early May, while also selling 28k beans and 38k SRW wheat contracts.

💣 US-Iran tensions escalated further Sunday as Iran launched missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike since the early April ceasefire. Peace talks remain stalled over disputes surrounding frozen assets and broader regional conflicts.

🛢️ Oil prices have stayed surprisingly contained despite the Strait of Hormuz closure now entering its fourth month, removing over 10 million barrels per day from the global supply. Record US exports, weaker Chinese demand, and SPR releases have offset much of the shock—though the situation remains fragile.

🐛 A second New World screwworm case was confirmed in Texas Friday, just 5.6 miles from the initial detection near the US-Mexico border. Canada announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from affected regions, though cattle futures pushed higher on the week.

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🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market.

🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest level since late January. Wheat futures also finished lower, pressured by ample global supplies.

🌧️🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor—Hot and dry conditions across the Corn Belt worsened drought in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and NE Missouri last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw improvement, and thunderstorms brought some relief to parts of the High Plains. 📄 See USDA's drought PDF linked below.

🌾🌏 China Wheat Quality Concerns—Heavy late-May rains caused an estimated 4.8–10mmt of wheat to sprout in China's key growing regions, rendering it unfit for milling and redirecting it to livestock feed. China may ramp up imports of higher-grade milling wheat to compensate, while persistent wet weather is also slowing Russia's spring wheat planting to its slowest pace since 2018.

📦🚢 US Export Sales—Corn export sales came in at 883,300mt for the week ending May 28, down 13% week-over-week and 32% below the prior four-week average, with Japan as the top buyer. Soybean sales totaled 276,900mt — down slightly week-over-week but up 24% from the four-week average, led by China, though China has yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.

🐄🪲 Cattle Futures & Screwworm—Cattle futures rallied sharply on Thursday despite confirmation of New World screwworm in the US, with live cattle gaining up to $4.80/cwt and most feeder cattle contracts hitting the new $10.75/cwt daily limit. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence the case—the first in Texas since 1966—can be contained, though the risk of spread through wildlife remains a concern.

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🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex.

🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow through on its commitment to purchase 25mmt of US soybeans annually for three years. However, China has officially purchased zero bushels of US soybeans for 26/27 delivery so far.

📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the recent rise in inflation transitory, attributing it to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. April CPI came in at 3.8% — the highest since 2023 — while most economists expect the federal deficit to widen above 6% this year.

⛽ The Iran war has driven diesel prices to nearly double last year's levels in some regions, compounding elevated fertilizer and chemical costs for farmers. Rabobank estimates food prices could rise 4–6% over the next 12–18 months as input costs work their way through the supply chain.

🏭 US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive at 20–55 cents based on spot prices of corn, DDGs, and other inputs.

🐄 The USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf near La Pryor, Texas — the first detection in the US cattle herd. The USDA has implemented quarantines and a 12-mile surveillance zone, though questions remain about containment capacity heading into summer.

🚢 USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. The sale offers a modest bright spot amid an otherwise bearish week for grain markets.

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Corn futures fell for a third straight session with the Dec26 contract settling near $4.67/bu—its lowest since late February—pressured by favorable Corn Belt weather and no Chinese buying since the mid-May summit. 🌽📉 Soybeans lost 11 cents to close near $11.78/bu and wheat followed lower, with Chicago July settling at $6.03 and KC July at $6.35. 🌾

The White House is cutting tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8 through end of 2027, with a possible 10% rate for equipment using 85%+ US steel or aluminum. 🚜 Separately, the administration is proposing at least 10% tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor concerns, largely replacing the current 10% global tariff expiring July 24th. 🌍
US farmer sentiment slipped for the second straight month, with the 

Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falling to 119 in May—well below last year's high of 158. 😟 A record 51% of producers cited high input costs as their top concern, and only 37% expect good times over the next five years. 💸

China issued lodging warnings for its wheat crop as harvest begins, mobilizing thousands of combines to limit losses. 🇨🇳🌾 The main worry is reduced milling-quality wheat, which could nudge the world's top wheat producer toward increased imports. ⚠️

CHS is closing or selling three grain elevators in southern Minnesota as farmers increasingly deliver directly to processors and river terminals. 🏗️ Expanded on-farm storage and more competitive pricing at larger facilities are accelerating the shift away from local elevators. 📦

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🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986.

📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Belt weather outlook and ample global supplies.

☀️ A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop by late July, with an 82% probability of formation according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Historically, strong El Niño years have been associated with record or near-record corn and soybean yields.

🛢️ Middle East tensions escalated after Iran suspended peace talks with the US, sending WTI crude surging 5.5% to just above $92 per barrel. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled military operations in southern Lebanon would continue despite calls for a ceasefire.

🚢 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.7 million metric tons last week, up over 5% from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were near the lower end of expectations but jumped 64% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of inspections.

🥛 A whey protein shortage is emerging as food companies aggressively add protein to a wide range of products, pushing prices up 30–40% in recent months. Because whey is a byproduct of cheese production, supply can't easily expand, forcing manufacturers to explore alternatives like soy and pea protein.

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🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms.

⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the national average for regular unleaded gasoline remained elevated at $4.34 per gallon. WTI crude posted its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.

🌽 Corn futures fell roughly 7 cents Friday, with the Dec26 contract settling at $4.75—its lowest since mid-April—pressured by weak crude oil and favorable Corn Belt growing conditions. Soybeans edged lower while wheat took a sharp hit on ample global supplies despite ongoing Plains drought damage.

🌧️ Weekend rains hit the western Corn Belt, Plains, and Southeast, but the central Corn Belt saw little to no moisture. The 7-day forecast calls for widespread Plains rainfall and decent coverage in the western and central Corn Belt, though the eastern Corn Belt may stay dry for another week.

📦 Weekly corn export sales came in at 40 million bushels, down 52% from the prior week, while soybean sales totaled 11 million bushels and wheat posted a marketing year low. Notably, China has yet to book any new-crop US soybean purchases.

📊 Money managers were heavy sellers last week, offloading 82k corn contracts, 14k soybean contracts, and 13k SRW wheat contracts. Since early May, funds have shed a total of 133k corn contracts.

🐛 A New World screwworm case was detected just 31 miles from the US border in a sheep, marking the closest confirmed detection yet. If the parasite enters the US cattle supply, it could further tighten already historically low herd numbers and push beef prices even higher.

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🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉

🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, potentially increasing the likelihood of US purchases. A White House fact sheet from May 17th indicated China could buy $17 billion in US non-soybean ag products annually, and Bloomberg previously reported discussions around possible corn purchases. 💵🤝

📈🫘 Soybean futures rallied Thursday, with the Nov26 contract gaining nearly 13 cents to settle at $11.94/bu, while the Dec26 corn contract rose roughly 5 cents to settle near $4.82/bu. Wheat futures were narrowly mixed, as traders appear to have largely priced in poor US winter wheat conditions and are shifting focus toward ample global supplies. 🌍⚖️

🕊️💣 The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though President Trump has yet to approve the deal. Key US demands include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to Iran's nuclear program, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. 🛢️📜

🛢️📊 Crude oil prices edged higher early Thursday following overnight clashes but faded during the session, with WTI rising just 0.3% to around $89/barrel. Ongoing military exchanges between the US and Iran continue to highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ⚔️😬

🌵🗺️ The USDA's weekly drought monitor showed improvements in Kentucky, southern Ohio, and southern Indiana following heavy Ohio Valley rainfall, while conditions worsened across northern Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Iowa. Severe drought continues to grip much of the High Plains, with roughly 90% of Nebraska experiencing some level of drought. 🌾😰

⛽📉 US ethanol production dipped last week but remained at a seasonal high, with weekly output at 1.09 million barrels per day — up 5.1% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.97 million barrels, and margins across the Corn Belt remain robust at 10 to 45 cents positive. 💪🌽

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🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.

☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range.

🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower.
🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs.

⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.

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🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions.

🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning.

🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress.

🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn.

📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year.

⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.

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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled Monday as Trump teased a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian officials quickly pumped the brakes on the optimism. Hours later, US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the strait, yet crude stayed lower while equities pushed higher.

🌽 Grain futures dipped overnight on the oil selloff but clawed back some gains, with the Dec26 corn contract notably holding key trend support. Keep an eye on the central Corn Belt — extended models show it staying bone dry well into the 15-16 day forecast period.

📊 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of corn and beans last week, offloading 2k and 10k contracts, respectively. Funds did flip to buyers in SRW wheat, picking up 15k contracts on the week.

🚜 Some farmers are calling for more financial aid as fuel and fertilizer costssurge,e tied to the Middle East conflict—though the real pain may not hit until fall input-buying season for 2027. Year-round E15 legislation is also back on the table as producers look for any relief they can get.

📦 USDA flashed some bullish export news Friday, with nearly 20 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico and 4 million more to unknown destinations. Soybean meal also moved, with 252,000mt sold split across the current and next marketing year.

🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report leaned bearish, with May 1 inventories up 2% year-over-year and April placements coming in 6% above last year. Drought across the Plains is forcing early cattle sales, even as the domestic cowherd sits at its lowest level in 75 years.

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🌱 Brazil's Agricultural Crisis – Soaring fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war are squeezing Brazilian farmers, with fertilizer use expected to drop nearly 4% by year-end. Soybean acreage growth is set to hit its slowest pace in nearly 20 years, while corn and cotton acreage may actually decline.

🚜 John Deere Feeling the Pain – Deere's ag segment saw a 14% drop in Q2 sales, with US/Canada sales forecast to fall 15-20% this year. South America's outlook has also worsened dramatically, with sales now expected to slide 15% versus a prior forecast of just 5%.

🌽 Grain Futures Under Pressure – Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed lower Thursday, weighed down by a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases and favorable Corn Belt weather. Grain markets are tracking crude oil closely, with futures ticking slightly higher this morning alongside a $2-3/bbl rise in WTI.

🌧️ Drought Monitor Update – USDA's latest data shows wildly uneven precipitation across the Corn Belt and Plains, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas. A staggering 70% of winter wheat acres remain under drought stress nationwide.

📦 Strong US Export Sales – Corn export sales crushed expectations at 2.1 MMT for the week ending May 14, up 71% from the prior four-week average. Soybean and wheat sales also came in near the top of expectations, though China has still yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.

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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House.

🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts.

⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive.

🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.

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🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock.

🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt.

🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say.

📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03.

🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices.

📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them.

🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.

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Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board.

US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days.

Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%.

US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations.

President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.

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🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳
China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet.
💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full.

🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔

🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week.

📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀

🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬

🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥

⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽

📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈

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🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag Markets
Trump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned.

🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just Beginning
The House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle.

🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough Picture
Yield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it.

🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt
1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development.

🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer Crisis
Nitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season.

🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56%
Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs.

⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal High
Weekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.

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🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report.

🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto.

🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data.

🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable.

🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm.

📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.

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🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.

📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.

⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.

🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.

💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.

🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.

🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.

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🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️

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📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)

🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long. 

🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.

🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.

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📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP

🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.

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📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST

USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. 

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🏦 FED & MACRO

Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.

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⛽ FUEL PRICES

National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.

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🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields.

☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex.

🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu.

⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.

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Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor.

In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage.

Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.

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Crude oil prices surged more than 4% Monday after Iran targeted US vessels and struck the UAE, reigniting fears that the four-week ceasefire could collapse. The move sent soybeans up 14 cents to near $11.97/bu and corn up roughly 6 cents to near $5.05/bu, with wheat also advancing on expected Plains rainfall.

US winter wheat conditions remain historically poor—the top 5 HRW states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE) are rated just 14% good-excellent with 52% poor-to-very-poor. Nationally, 37% of the crop is rated poor-to-very-poor, well above the 5-year average of 27%. Corn planting reached 38% complete, ahead of the 34% average, while soybean planting hit 33%, well above the 23% average.

On the export front, corn inspections came in strong at 80 million bushels — up 22% week-over-week and 25% vs. last year. Soybean and wheat shipments came in near the low end of expectations. China accounted for roughly 45% of weekly inspections.

The US is urging China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted China buys ~90% of Iran's energy exports. Trump and Xi are expected to meet May 14th. Meanwhile, China ordered its companies to disregard US sanctions on private refiners tied to Iranian oil purchases.

Tyson Foods posted $260M in net income last quarter, up sharply from $7M a year ago, despite a $240M loss in its beef segment driven by tight cattle supplies. Chicken profit hit $505M. Ag Secretary Rollins flagged the administration's ongoing investigation into the big four meatpackers.

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🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential. 

📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher. 

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil.

🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes. 

🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn.

🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged.

The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes.

The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately.

Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report.

Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week.

The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.

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Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now.

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board.

Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise.

Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher.

Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns.

US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

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🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options.

🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway.

🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time.

🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies.

🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.

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Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells.

US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace.

Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight.

The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle 
East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security.
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging.

US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.

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🌾 A 128-acre Iowa farm in Louisa County sold for $2.1 million at auction — roughly 35% above statewide and county per-acre averages — drawing 46 registered bidders from 12 states. A 79-acre tract of highly productive cropland led the way at $21,050/acre, reflecting strong demand driven by scarcity and farmland's track record of ~12.7% average annual returns from 1970–2021.

🌵 Severe drought is tightening its grip on the US High Plains, with 70% of the winter wheat crop now drought-stressed — the highest coverage since December 2022. Poor pasture conditions and wildfire losses are also forcing cattle producers to liquidate herds, with El Niño rains expected too late to help winter wheat or summer grazing.

🏛️ The USDA is doubling disaster aid payments this week, increasing the SDRP payment factor from 35% to 70% for approved 2023–2024 claims. The application deadline has also been extended to August 12, and the Trump administration is expected to announce measures to address surging fertilizer prices in the coming weeks.

📊 Large money managers were net buyers of 30k corn contracts and 19k soybean contracts for the week ending April 21, per the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Funds were net sellers of 3k SRW wheat contracts on the week.

🇮🇷 US-Iran negotiations were called off over the weekend after President Trump canceled talks that were set to take place in Pakistan. Iran is demanding the US lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade before talks resume, while the White House says the blockade will remain in place as maximum economic pressure.

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🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.

🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.

🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated.

🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.

🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

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🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction.

🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt.

🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive.

💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war.

⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels.

📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher
✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels
✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming?
✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war
✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets?
✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN
✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.

🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.

💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.

🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.

🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.

🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

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🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.

⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.

🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.

📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.

🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict.

🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022.

🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year.

💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production.

📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations.

🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.

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Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week.

The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector. 

Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike.

On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week.

Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year).

NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever.

All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.

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Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges.

Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days.

Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments.

On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt.

Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days.

The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.

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In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.

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🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨
The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈

💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over.

🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict.

📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7):
Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀

🌽 Friday Futures Recap:

Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss)
Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!)
Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand

🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned.

⚡ Flash Sales Friday:
125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations
100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy

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🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control.

🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing.

🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer.

🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins.

📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.

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Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨
Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens.

The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end.

Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains.

Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure.

USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after!

Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive.
Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇

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🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for Farmers

Just hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥

We break down everything you need to know:
🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated?

🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate?

📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news.

💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover.

🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country.

🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports.

🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming.

📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔

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🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle Markets
Winter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉

🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help.
🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings.

⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely.

📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.

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Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳

In today's update we cover:
🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices
🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs
🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying
🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022!
🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming?
🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief
📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW
🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely
💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of Azov
CPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊

👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!

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🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks Plunging
President Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio.

📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWED
Wheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines.


🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVE
For the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward?

🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDS
StoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need.

⛽ ETHANOL UPDATE
Weekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.

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🌽 US farmers are slashing corn plantings by 3.5% as the Iran war chokes off fertilizer supplies — but the USDA's own data may be nearly worthless with a record-low survey response rate of just 37.6%! Soybean acres are actually rising 4.3%, and grain stocks are up big—so the full picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

🌾 US wheat acreage is crashing to its lowest level since 1919, with spring wheat hitting a shocking 56-year low! Dry weather hammering Kansas HRW wheat regions and tightening supply forecasts are sending futures flying—watch this space closely.

🛢️ Oil had a wild March, surging a massive 51%—its biggest monthly gain since 2020—but pulled back 1.5% Tuesday as Trump hinted at a US withdrawal from Iran within weeks! Even if peace comes fast, experts warn it could take months for oil shipments to normalize due to heavy infrastructure damage.

🤝 The high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is still happening, now locked in for May 14–15 in Beijing despite the Iran conflict throwing a wrench in global diplomacy! China has been buying US soybeans at a modest pace this year but has yet to commit to the massive new-crop purchases that were rumored.

🚢 The world is scrambling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer shipments in a humanitarian deal modeled after the famous Black Sea grain corridor! With fertilizer flows blocked, global food prices are under serious pressure — and the stakes for food security worldwide couldn't be higher.

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🌱 Farmers Ditch Corn for Soybeans — Here's Why It Matters
The Iran war is reshaping American agriculture. With urea prices up 40% and fuel costs surging, US farmers are pivoting—corn acreage is set to fall 4.5% while soybeans climb 5.2%. Spring wheat? On track for its lowest plantings since 1970. 📉
Meanwhile, soybean oil is surging 🛢️, crude oil hit $102/barrel for the first time since 2022, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is keeping energy markets on edge.
All eyes are on today's USDA Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11am CST—the stocks numbers could be the real market mover. 👀📊
#Farming #Commodities #CornMarket #Soybeans #CrudeOil #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets

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Welcome back! Let’s break down the biggest ag market movers right now 🌽📉

🌱 Biofuel Mandates Jump

EPA sets record 25.82B gallons
70% of waived volumes reassigned
Foreign feedstocks penalized after 2028
Supportive long-term, not bullish today

🏛️ Trump’s Farmer Push

Pushing additional aid 💰
New SBA loan guarantees
Targeting DEF rollback + lower equipment costs
Trade talk strong… but soybean exports lag

📊 Funds Get Active

Corn: +49k contracts (big long build)
Beans: slight selling
Wheat: shorts trimmed significantly

🌧️ Weather Watch

Heavy Corn Belt rains incoming
Could slow early planting progress
HRW wheat may miss key moisture

🌽➡️🌱 Acreage Shift Brewing

Corn acres seen down ~4–5%
Soybeans up ~5%
Fertilizer costs exploding (urea +40%)
War impact not fully in USDA data yet

🚢 Export Check

Flash sale: 105k mt soybeans
Total sales still down ~18% YoY

👉 Bottom line: supportive policy + tighter inputs, but market already priced it in.

🌎 Markets & Macro
Grains, oil, and global headlines all moving fast—stay sharp.

🌽 Grain Update
Corn, soybeans, and wheat action you need to know.

⛽ Energy & Biofuels
Ethanol, crude oil, and policy shifts impacting demand.

📈 What It Means
Key takeaways to help you stay ahead of the market.

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President Trump is headed to China 🇨🇳 for a high-stakes meeting with Xi, and markets are already reacting. Soybeans surged on the news, while corn and wheat followed higher amid fertilizer and acreage concerns.

The EPA also issued another E15 summer waiver ⛽🌽, keeping ethanol demand supported—for now. But with plants already running near capacity, how much more corn can actually be used?

Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are rising fast 💥, USDA funding is being cut 💰, and ethanol production/margins are improving 📈.

👉 Plenty to unpack across energy, policy, and grain markets.

Subscribe for daily updates 👍 and drop your thoughts in the comments!

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🌽 E15 Decision Coming?
Another summer waiver may drop today, allowing E15 sales and supporting ethanol demand—not permanent, but still bullish short-term.

🛢️ Oil Still Wild
Crude jumped, then pulled back as war headlines flip hourly. No real clarity yet—volatility remains high ⚡

🌾 Fertilizer Concerns Growing
Prices are surging, and many farmers haven’t locked supply. Washington is scrambling for solutions ahead of Friday’s ag event.

🌍 Global Supply Tightening
Russia just restricted exports, and Australia is cutting wheat acres—potential supply issues ahead.

👉 Energy + fertilizer + policy = big market risk (and opportunity)

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re seeing locally!

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Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down a wild mix of geopolitics 🌍, energy markets 🛢️, biofuels policy 🌽, and key ag fundamentals 🌾👇

🛢️ Oil Market Whiplash

Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could cool off. WTI crude plunged more than 10%, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks after President Trump signaled progress in talks and ordered a temporary pause on strikes. That said, the situation remains volatile—Iran denies direct talks, and attacks in the region continue. Bottom line: headlines are still driving massive swings in energy and commodity markets.

🌽 Biofuels Policy Incoming

The Trump administration is expected to roll out new biofuel blending quotas by month-end, likely tied to Friday’s White House agriculture event. EPA head Lee Zeldin confirmed updated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements are coming soon, with more rulemaking to follow. Key issues include diesel volumes, RIN values, and blending mandates—plus ongoing debate over year-round E15. This is a big one for corn demand and ethanol margins.

🌾 Wheat Weather Watch

HRW wheat areas across the Plains remain dry, with little relief expected over the next 10 days. Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and the southern Plains are all under pressure, though longer-range models hint at rain returning. Current Kansas ratings sit at 46% good/excellent and 19% poor/very poor. Weather risk is building—but forecasts beyond a week are always shaky.

🚢 Strong Export Demand

US export activity was solid last week:

Corn shipments hit 1.7 mmt (strong vs. last year)
Soybeans came in at 1.1 mmt, with China taking 60%
Wheat exceeded expectations at 458k mt

Demand continues to hold up well, especially on the corn and soybean side.

🐖 China Demand Concerns

China’s hog sector is under serious pressure. Pork prices have collapsed to multi-year lows, and producer margins are shrinking fast. Weak consumer demand and rising feed costs are forcing Beijing to step in—cutting herd sizes and buying pork for reserves. This has major implications for global feed demand, especially soymeal.

🇧🇷 Brazil Harvest Update

Brazil’s soybean harvest is lagging, now at 68% complete vs. 80% last year. Dry weather helped recently, but rains are coming back into the forecast. Meanwhile, second crop corn planting is nearly finished at 97%. Timing and logistics here remain critical for global supply flows.

⚡ Flash Sales

USDA confirmed fresh demand:

102,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico (new crop)
161,120 mt of soybeans sold to Mexico (new crop)

Steady demand continues to show up on the daily wire.

👍 If you’re in agriculture, these moving pieces matter—energy, policy, weather, and global demand are all tightly connected right now.

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⚠️ Middle East tensions are escalating fast… and markets are watching closely.

🌍 Geopolitics
Trump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz—threatening strikes on power infrastructure if it’s not reopened. Iran pushes back, raising fears of broader conflict and long-term shipping disruptions.

🛢️ Energy vs. Grains
Crude oil holding firm despite the headlines, while grain markets slipped Friday. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pressured by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and improving US weather outlooks.

📊 Fund Positioning
Funds keep piling into corn (largest net long since Feb ‘25), trimming soybeans, and reducing wheat shorts. Positioning remains a key driver heading into spring.

🌱 Global Ag Developments
China eases restrictions on Brazilian soybeans after recent trade tensions—potentially smoothing export flows during peak shipment season.

⛽ Diesel & Inflation
Diesel prices surge above $5—fueling inflation concerns across agriculture, trucking, and the broader economy.

🐄 Cattle Market
Cattle on Feed report leans bearish with larger-than-expected placements, though context matters vs. last year’s low numbers.

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are grain markets too cheap here?

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🌍 War & Bullish Setup
Bank of America says ag markets may be underpricing the Iran war. Prolonged conflict could tighten fertilizer supplies and spark a new grain bull cycle 🌽📈

⛽ Energy Shock = Fertilizer Risk
Damage to Qatar LNG + soaring nat gas prices = major nitrogen concerns. Urea futures hit multi-year highs… big implications for crop costs ⚠️

🌽 Grains Higher
Corn, beans, and wheat all pushed higher Thursday on energy + fertilizer fears. New calendar-year highs in corn contracts 🚜

💰 Funds Still Long
Funds were net buyers again—holding large long positions in both corn and soybeans 👀

🛢️ Oil Surge
Crude spiked sharply this week amid Middle East attacks. Higher energy = higher input costs + biofuel support 🔥

🏛️ Fertilizer Bill
New bipartisan “Fertilizer Transparency Act” aims to improve pricing visibility and boost domestic production 🇺🇸

🌧️ Weather Update
Better moisture in the Corn Belt, but worsening drought in the Plains. Mixed outlook heading into planting season 🌦️

👉 If you’re watching inputs, energy, and geopolitics… this could get interesting fast.

👍 Like & subscribe for more daily grain market updates
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—bull market coming?

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🌾 Wheat Leads the Rally
Wheat futures surged on weather concerns across the Plains—winter damage risk + hot/dry forecasts gave bulls a reason to step in.

🌽 Corn & Beans Follow + Funds Active
Corn and soybeans moved higher alongside crude oil 📈
Funds were aggressive buyers again—corn and beans both sitting with big net long positions.

📊 Acreage Debate Heating Up
Private estimates are creeping higher on corn acres, but fertilizer costs could throw a wrench into everything.
March 31 numbers? Probably noisy. June will matter more.

🚢 Jones Act Waived
The administration temporarily lifted shipping restrictions to ease fertilizer and fuel logistics—but it may be too late to impact spring costs.

🌍 China Trip Delayed
Trump’s China visit pushed back amid geopolitical tensions—trade talks (and ag demand expectations) remain in limbo.

⛽ Ethanol Slips
Production dipped, stocks rose, and margins are hovering around breakeven across the Corn Belt.

💵 Fed Holds Rates Steady
No rate change. Markets slid after the announcement as uncertainty tied to global conflict remains high.

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🌽 White House Biofuels Event & RVO Decision
President Trump is hosting a major ag event next week with farmers and biofuel producers 🇺🇸
Comes just ahead of the 2026–2027 blending mandate decision
Potential increase in mandates = stronger demand for ethanol & biodiesel
⚠️ Refiners pushing back, warning of higher fuel prices
Timing matters with Middle East conflict already pressuring energy markets

💸 Rising Farm Costs Becoming Political
War-driven input inflation is hitting farmers hard 🚜
Fertilizer + fuel costs surging right before planting
Margins already tight due to weak grain prices
Could impact rural sentiment ahead of midterms 🗳️
Higher farm costs = potential food inflation pressure 🍔

🌾 Wheat Market Update
Wheat futures slipped Tuesday 📉
Chicago wheat ~ $5.90, KC wheat ~ $6.07
Cold temps + ongoing dryness in the Plains
Forecast: hot + dry → then cooldown
Russia still undercutting U.S. on price 🌍

🌍 Trump Delays China Trip
Trade tensions stay in focus 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Visit pushed back 5–6 weeks
Trump ties trip to China helping reopen Hormuz
Treasury says delay is logistical

⏳ Delays progress on ag trade talks (soybeans!)
Meanwhile:
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed 🚢
Iranian attacks continue across the region
Energy markets remain on edge

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Export Problems
Brazil facing fresh export disruptions 🚫
China tightening inspection standards
Issues: insects, damage, treated beans
Cargill paused some shipments
Local soybean bids have collapsed in some areas

Officials heading to China to try and fix it 🤝
👉 This could shift demand back toward the U.S. if it drags on

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🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead.

🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina.

🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story.

🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load.

🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.

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🌾 Grain Markets & Policy Update

President Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.”

📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close.

🌾 Wheat Weather Concerns
Chicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Harvest
Brazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather.

🧪 Fertilizer Market Developments
The U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply.

🏛️ Policy & Farmer Relief
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen.

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🌱 Brazil Soybean Export Disruption
Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil.

🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer Concerns
Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices.

📈 Grain Futures Rally
Soybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions.

🤝 US-China Trade Talks Ahead
US and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow.

🏭 Ethanol Production Jumps
US ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand.

🛢️ Record Strategic Oil Release
The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions.

📊 Inflation Holds Steady
US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.

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🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity Boom
Agricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets. 

🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War Headlines
Crude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure.

🧪 Fertilizer Supply at Risk
The Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses. 

⛽ Oil Traders Secure Credit
Major commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector.

🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast Asia
Shipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt.

📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-Event
Tuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced.

📉 Bond Traders Turn Bearish
Investors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.

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🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽

🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices.

🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower.

• Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).
• Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.
• Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu.
  The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.

📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations:

• Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽
• Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾
• Global stocks mostly unchanged
  Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.

🚢🌽 Export shipments:

• Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.
• Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳
• Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete.

🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants.

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🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments.

🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns.

🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities.

🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week.

📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts.

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🌽 Grains Higher as Oil Surges
Rising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈

🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price Measures
The Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽

🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Raised
Agroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷

🚢 Strong Corn Export Sales
US corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎

🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn Belt
About 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains.
Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾

🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker Structure
Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.

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🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn Belt
Rain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio.

📉 Grain Futures Slip
Grain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices.

⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer Companies
The US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices.

🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapses
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher.

✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to Hedge
Airlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022.

🌽 Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents.

📦 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.

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🌍 Iran Conflict & Fertilizer Markets
The war in Iran has led to a partial pause in fertilizer bidding as production curtailments and Gulf shipping disruptions slow movement. The Middle East accounts for about 25% of global urea exports, and US inventories were already tight. If nitrogen equals 10–20% of a corn grower’s costs, a 40% price spike could raise total production costs by 4–8%, which has sparked talk of aggressive acreage switching away from corn.

🚢 US Insurance Backstop for Gulf Shipping
The US will help insure ships traveling through the Gulf as war-risk premiums surge. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to assist with insurance costs and said the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Officials are also prepared to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply disruptions continue.

💵 US Dollar Surges
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped sharply since the conflict began, marking its strongest two-day rally in nearly a year. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and could delay Fed rate cuts. Unlike past oil shocks, the US is now a major energy exporter, which has helped support the dollar.

🥩 Brazilian Beef Trade at Risk
A prolonged conflict could disrupt Brazilian beef exports through Middle Eastern shipping routes. About 10% of Brazil’s beef exports go directly to the Middle East, while 30–40% pass through the region en route to Asia and China. If flows are disrupted, the US could become an alternative market.

📊 Farmer Sentiment Improves Slightly
The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, up slightly from January as current conditions improved. However, expectations for the future weakened, and 44% of farmers said their operations are worse off than a year ago.

🌽 USDA Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a flash sale of 196,000 mt (about 8 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.

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The war in Iran poses risks to global fertilizer production and supply chains 🌍. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and roughly one-third of global crop nutrients pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US imports little fertilizer directly from Iran, it relies heavily on supplies from other Gulf countries shipping through the strait. Fertilizer prices—especially urea—have already risen amid disruption fears. Natural gas prices also moved higher after Qatar temporarily shut down a major facility Monday, adding pressure since gas is a key input for nitrogen fertilizer. Roughly 25% of global anhydrous ammonia exports and 20-25% of global urea exports move through the Strait of Hormuz. Many US fertilizer retailers pulled their offers yesterday due to the uncertainty.

The conflict is also influencing ag markets 🌽🫘. Soybean oil gained as much as 3.9% Monday as higher crude prices boosted biofuel demand. Soybean futures moved lower amid uncertainty regarding Chinese purchases and whether President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping later this month will occur as scheduled. Corn futures declined on concerns that disruptions to Brazilian shipments to Iran could reduce demand. Wheat futures were also lower as traders gave back last week’s gains while watching whether global grain shipments could be affected.

The conflict is beginning to impact gasoline prices ⛽. WTI crude surged 8.4% Monday to $72.74 per barrel after President Trump suggested the conflict could last longer than a few weeks. According to GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price rose 5 cents Sunday to $2.99 per gallon. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tankers avoiding the region as insurers cancel vessel coverage. Shipping rates for oil and gas have surged, and continued disruptions could contribute to broader inflation pressures.

Brazil soybean production estimates were trimmed 🌱. AgRural lowered its forecast to 178mmt from 181mmt and reported harvest progress at 39% as of last week, well behind last year’s 50%. StoneX also cut its estimate to 177.8mmt from 181.6mmt. Both revisions were tied to drought conditions in Rio Grande do Sul. 

US ethanol production reached a new all-time high last year ⛽🌽. Output climbed to 16.5 billion gallons in 2025, up 1.7% from the prior year, supported by strong domestic demand and record exports. The national average blend rate hit 10.5%, while domestic consumption increased to 14.3 billion gallons. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, growth reflects expanded E15 sales and could increase further if Congress approves year-round nationwide E15. US ethanol exports jumped 13% year over year to 2.2 billion gallons.

US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the fourth straight week 🚢. USDA reported 1.9mmt (73m bu) of corn inspected for export during the week ending February 26—down 8% from the prior week but up 37% year over year. Soybean shipments totaled 1.1mmt (42m bu), up 67% vs. the previous week and 62% above last year. China accounted for about 65% of inspections. Wheat shipments totaled 344,272mt (13m bu), down 39% week over week and 12% below last year. Roughly 12 cargoes of US soybeans were shipped to China last week—2 from the PNW and 10 from the Gulf—totaling about 30m bushels.

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🌍 Geopolitics & Middle East Developments
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed over the weekend following a US-Israeli strike on Saturday that also eliminated several senior Iranian officials. Authorities reported that the attacks killed and wounded hundreds of civilians. The strike came after US-Iran negotiations aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program ultimately failed. In retaliation, Iran launched attacks against US and Israeli bases across the Middle East and vowed to continue further strikes. 

🛢️ Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz Closure
Oil prices surged Sunday following the US and Israeli strikes. WTI crude oil futures opened more than $8 per barrel higher and were trading about $4.60 per barrel, or roughly 7%, higher early this morning. The rally is being driven primarily by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following Saturday’s attacks, Iran announced the waterway would be closed to navigation, halting the flow of oil shipments. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies typically move through the strait. 

🇨🇳 China, Energy Security & Trump–Xi Summit
The strike could complicate President Trump’s upcoming visit to China. Beijing publicly condemned the attack and warned it could further destabilize the Middle East. Despite its strong rhetoric, China is not expected to intervene militarily. The Trump–Xi summit scheduled for later this month is still expected to proceed, though major breakthroughs appear unlikely. China imports about 14% of its crude oil needs from Iran and accounts for roughly 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports, as sanctions limit purchases from other countries.

🌾 Grain Markets React to Geopolitical Risk
Wheat futures surged on Friday. The Chicago May 2026 contract rose 17 cents to close near $5.92 per bushel, its highest level since July 2025. The rally was fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions that triggered short covering by the funds. Corn and soybean futures also moved higher, with May corn gaining about 5 cents to settle near $4.49 per bushel and May soybeans rising roughly 7 cents to close near $11.71 per bushel. Traders were clearly anticipating a potential weekend escalation on Friday. Grains showed some early strength overnight but were mostly steady early this morning.

📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
The CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday. For the week ending February 24, large money managers were net buyers of 29,000 corn contracts and net buyers of 12,000 soybean contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 52,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week. The net short position in SRW wheat shrank to 18,000 contracts, the smallest since October 2022. Private estimates suggested funds held a net long of about 25,000 wheat contracts at Friday’s close, along with a net long of roughly 180,000 soybean contracts and a reduced SRW wheat net short of about 10,000 contracts. 

🌽 Crop Insurance Prices & Acreage Outlook
This year’s crop insurance pricing provides improved coverage for soybeans, while corn faces greater downside risk. The spring projected soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, up 55 cents from last year. The corn projected price declined 8 cents to $4.62 per bushel. Spring wheat’s projected price stands at $6.19 per bushel, also 55 cents higher year over year.

🇺🇸🇧🇷 US vs Brazil Soybean Profitability
This week, the University of Illinois farmdoc team broke down a critical difference between US and Brazilian soybean economics. Brazil’s costs are heavily tied to direct inputs like fertilizer, while US producers face far larger overhead expenses driven by elevated farmland values. Brazilian production costs surged from 2020–2024 due to fertilizer inflation and currency weakness, yet profitability held up thanks to strong prices and export demand. US margins were far less stable, contributing to losses in multiple years.

📈 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures pushed higher Tuesday, with strength linked to easing fears surrounding US tariff policy and China demand. The market continues to weigh the potential impact of evolving trade policy, while rumors of Chinese PNW business circulated. Traders remain cautious but attentive to any confirmation of export activity.

🌽 Corn & Wheat Trade
Corn futures were slightly lower. Chicago wheat was mostly steady as traders monitored persistent dryness across key HRW regions. Weather remains the dominant driver, with warm and windy conditions stressing parts of the Southern Plains, though rain chances loom further out.

🌦️ Weather Watch
Forecast models keep much of Kansas and surrounding wheat areas dry near-term, while temperatures run well above normal. Moisture prospects in the extended window remain a focal point for price direction.

🧪 Fertilizer & Tariff Policy
Most fertilizer imports remain exempt under the latest tariff framework. Key products like ammonia, sulfur, and sulfuric acid face minimal disruption, largely due to Canadian dominance in US import flows.

₿ Bitcoin Sentiment
Investor confidence remains fragile. A large share of supply is now underwater, reinforcing a pattern where rallies encounter selling pressure. Despite price weakness, ETF positioning suggests longer-term holders have not fully exited.

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Trade drama is back in the headlines. President Trump is threatening higher tariffs on countries that fail to honor trade agreements. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, the EU announced it would pause ratification of its agreement, while India is deferring talks on its own deal. Despite the legal setback, the White House says it remains committed to its trade agenda and is exploring alternative tools to implement tariffs. Markets clearly reacted to the renewed uncertainty, with stocks under pressure to start the week.

Grain markets felt the ripple effects. Soybean and wheat futures moved lower Monday as traders weighed the potential impact of trade disruptions and retaliation tied to the newly announced 15% global tariff. Corn futures, meanwhile, managed to hold steady. When policy uncertainty rises, volatility often follows — and that theme remains firmly in play.

Export data offered a few surprises. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the third straight week, posting a very strong year-over-year gain. Wheat inspections also came in above trade guesses. Soybean shipments, however, disappointed and continue to reflect uneven demand patterns. China remained a major buyer, accounting for roughly half of weekly inspections.

USDA also reported a fresh flash sale of corn to Colombia, adding to an already solid sales pace this marketing year. Demand for US corn has been a notable bright spot recently, especially when compared to other segments of the export complex.

Weather and field conditions remain a major talking point in South America. Brazil’s soybean harvest is advancing at its slowest pace in several years, with rains and longer crop cycles creating delays. Planting progress for Brazil’s second corn crop is also lagging last year’s pace, which could become increasingly important for global feed grain supply expectations.

Outside of grains, US consumers continue to show remarkable resilience in the face of high beef prices. Despite record price levels, demand remains strong as buyers adapt by shifting toward more affordable cuts and smaller portions. The protein story remains a powerful force across the broader agricultural landscape.

As always, volatility, policy, and global production trends remain key market drivers.

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Soybean markets started the week wrestling with fresh tariff drama. The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s prior global tariffs, ruling that the use of emergency powers was unlawful. Shortly afterward, the White House announced a new blanket tariff approach, creating another wave of uncertainty across financial and commodity markets. The key question for agriculture remains unchanged: how will this impact trade flows and demand, particularly from China? Earlier signals pointed toward stronger soybean buying interest, but policy volatility continues to cloud the outlook.

Meanwhile, USDA is preparing to roll out a major round of farm assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The application window opens today, with payments expected to move quickly. Market participants will be watching closely to see how the agency handles what could be a surge in producer enrollment. The program arrives at a time when farm margins remain under pressure and policy uncertainty is elevated.

Export demand signals were mixed in the latest weekly data. Corn demand continues to hold up relatively well despite some week-to-week variability, while soybean and wheat sales showed uneven momentum. Traders remain highly sensitive to shifts in global demand and competitiveness.

The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to positions across the grain complex, with soybeans drawing particular attention. Positioning trends remain an important driver of short-term price movement, especially in an environment dominated by macro headlines.

In livestock, the latest Cattle on Feed report landed near expectations and was generally viewed as neutral. While placements data offered some supportive elements, the overall numbers did not point to a major shift in supply outlook.

Lots to unpack this week as markets digest policy developments, demand signals, and fund activity. Stay tuned.

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Welcome back 🌾

Wheat futures pushed sharply higher on Thursday, fueled largely by short covering as traders reacted to drought and high winds across the US Southern Plains. Weather risks remain front and center, with ongoing concerns about potential crop stress in key HRW regions. There was also chatter surrounding possible issues with Ukraine’s wheat crop. Chicago and Kansas City contracts both posted solid gains. The Climate Prediction Center added another layer of support with updated seasonal outlooks calling for a warm and dry pattern across much of wheat country. While long-range forecasts always deserve some skepticism, the market clearly paid attention.

🌱 USDA Acreage & Production Outlook
USDA projects an increase in soybean acreage this season, while corn acres are expected to decline. Soybeans are viewed as offering stronger relative profitability, helping drive the shift. Despite fewer corn acres, production is still forecast to be massive. Wheat acreage is seen slipping slightly.

⛽ Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol production moved higher last week, and stocks also increased. Margins reportedly strengthened across much of the Corn Belt, a supportive signal for corn demand. We’ll take a look at what’s driving profitability and why this matters.

🚢 Ethanol & DDGS Trade
Ethanol exports surged to one of the highest monthly totals on record, capping off a year of very strong international demand. DDGS shipments also remained robust. Trade flows continue to play a critical role in demand dynamics.

🚜 John Deere Shares Surge
John Deere shares posted a stunning rally following earnings. The company exceeded expectations and raised its income outlook. Management commentary hinted at stabilizing farm economics and potential improvement in equipment demand.

🛢️ Crude Oil & Geopolitics
Crude oil climbed to multi-month highs amid escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.

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🌽 Ag Outlook Forum – Acreage & Yield Estimates
USDA will release its first look at 2026 acreage and yield projections this morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. Analysts expect corn acreage near 94.9 million acres with production around 15.9 billion bushels. Soybean acreage is forecast near 84.9 million acres with production pegged at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is projected at 44.8 million acres with production near 1.9 billion bushels. These numbers often set the tone for new-crop expectations and market psychology.

🚜 NCGA Warns of Farm Financial Stress
The National Corn Growers Association released a report emphasizing mounting financial pressure across US agriculture. The group argues that many corn farmers are facing multiple years of negative margins amid rising costs and increased volatility. Long-term consolidation trends continue as productivity gains fail to consistently translate into profitability. Off-farm income remains critical for many operations. Demand growth and supportive policy remain central themes.

🌾 Wheat Strength – Weather Concerns
Kansas City wheat futures posted fresh multi-month highs overnight, with nearby contracts reaching their best levels since late summer. Comments from Ukraine’s farmers union regarding winter wheat risks following a thaw and cold snap helped support prices. Wheat continues to show relative strength compared to corn.

📊 Corn & Soybean Price Action
Soybeans briefly traded into fresh multi-month highs, while corn futures remain sluggish ahead of First Notice Day. Spreads, positioning, and technical flows are all in focus as traders manage delivery risk and roll activity.

⛽ E15 Policy Push Continues
Ag groups continue pressing for year-round nationwide E15 sales despite missed legislative deadlines. Advocates argue expanded blends would boost corn demand and potentially reduce fuel costs. Market participants continue to monitor Washington for movement.

🌧️ South American Weather Update
Recent rains improved soybean conditions in southern Brazil and brought relief to dry Argentine areas. Additional precipitation could disrupt harvest pace and second-crop corn planting. Brazilian production estimates remain historically large.

🚢 Argentina Strikes & Logistics
Labor strikes are temporarily disrupting Argentine grain shipments. While these events frequently generate headlines, they historically produce limited lasting impact on global price trends.

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🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength
The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March.

Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years.

Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest.

🌽 Corn Market Pressure
Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets.

🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds
Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market.

🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows
U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year.

The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows.

📦 Export Inspections Update
U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor.

🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks
NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes.

Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

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🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035)
USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment.

🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches
A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets.

📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress
Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals
Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes.

🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback
Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.