• US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.
• And there’s a reason for that.

On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack:

• How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in export controls it’s known about for ages
• Why renting chips sits completely outside the rules that govern buying them, even when the end result is identical
• Why closing this gap risks a “double win” for Beijing: 1) marketing material to court the Global South with China’s AI stack and 2) and potential leverage to retaliate with rare earths, ultimately causing the US to back down
• Why cutting off compute access could undermine trust in the US AI stack, like sanctions have eroded trust in the US dollar – and why that risk may be exactly what’s keeping policymakers’ finger off the trigger

But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about.

• Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.

On this episode, host Andrew Polk sits down with Gerard, Dinny, and Cory to dive into:

• Why rare earths are a uniquely cheap and low-cost weapon for Beijing, and why other chokepoints like batteries carry far higher stakes
• How China’s licensing regime doubles as a surveillance system, giving Beijing visibility into global supply chains it can use to ratchet pressure up or down at will
• The “shoe that hasn’t dropped yet”: China’s shelved extraterritorial rule that could restrict any product containing Chinese-origin content, anywhere in the world
• Why intermediate goods are the next frontier to watch, and why China’s reaction function gets a lot murkier once controls move further down the production chain – into products with real commercial value to Chinese firms themselves

It’s another great discussion – so enjoy!

• And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.

On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:

• What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’s first ever foreign-trade national security investigation
• Why this round of retaliation was aimed squarely at the FCC and DHS, and how it traces back to actions on robotics, drones, and forced-labor sanctions
• Whether Beijing’s unusually direct language about the Busan detente is a warning shot or a sign the deal is really at risk
• Why neither side seems ready to blow up the agreement just yet, even as both keep testing its edges

• Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.

In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China.

On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:

• Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that "multi-modal" strategy reveals about how it actually innovates
• How brutal domestic competition, not central planning, is driving some of China's biggest technological breakthroughs
• Why Beijing tolerates crushing margin pressure on its own battery makers, and what it's betting that pain buys
• The uncomfortable case for the US actually licensing "second-best" Chinese tech, rather than racing to rebuild it from scratch

• There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.

On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack:

• The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too far
• Why Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involution” 18 months ago, and what that rhetorical swap is designed to do
• How China frames itself as both free trade’s champion and its victim, and why that framing leaves little room for compromise
• Why the US may have the least at stake here economically, and why Europe is where this fight actually gets decided

As always, we hope you enjoy the discussion – reach out and let us know any thoughts or feedback.

• In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.

Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.

• Let us know what you think about the new format!

On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:

• How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what form
• What "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidies
• Why Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cuts
• Why none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up

• His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.

Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.

On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Trivium Tech Analyst Bao Linghao (Shanghai) to unpack:

• Why DeepSeek's "no KPIs, no organization" culture is likely genuine rather than an investor pitch, and how a market-based valuation helps retain talent
• Whether DeepSeek's open-source commitment survives once – or if – it actually leads the frontier, given the pull to cash in once you get there
• What Liang's "restraint" framing on pricing really means, and how DeepSeek's infrastructure edge lets it stay cheap without bleeding margin
• Why Kimi K3's release upended assumptions about the US-China compute gap, and how "bench-maxxing" has muddied claims about how close Chinese models really are
• Whether China's crowded field of base-model labs is finally headed for real consolidation

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

• Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.

Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.

• Look for more of these in your feed soon.

On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:

• Why MOFCOM's reported talks with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zhipu on export controls could reshape how Chinese model weights get released
• The three priorities Beijing is trying to balance: model competitiveness, security risk, and controllability
• How Kimi K3's release has intensified US anxiety, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floating possible sanctions over model distillation
• What Xi's WAIC speech signals about China staying committed to open source while tightening the regulatory leash

Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

• Coincidence? We don't think so.

On this week's Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:

• Why the "national team" bought A-shares after last month's selloff, and why this intervention was smaller than last year’s
• What SAFE's move to regularize QDII quotas signals about RMB internationalization
• The quiet PBOC move to curb bankers' acceptances, and what it tells us about Beijing's deleveraging playbook
• What the latest GDP and trade data say about China's widening "K-shaped" economy

Tune in for the full breakdown.

And while you're at it, make sure to check out Dinny's latest note on the pivot to deleveraging here. You won't regret it!

• But while US policymakers tend to view data primarily through a national security lens, Beijing is pursuing a much broader strategy aimed at unlocking data’s economic value.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to explore why China has formally designated data as a “factor of production” – and how that idea is reshaping the country’s technology and economic policies.

The two discuss:

• Why low-cost Chinese open-source AI models are increasingly attractive to Western companies
• How restricting access to those models could undermine US competitiveness
• What Beijing means when it describes data as the economy’s fifth factor of production
• China’s efforts to make data easier to find, price, trade, and use as collateral
• Why Beijing views data security rules as necessary guardrails for a functioning data market
• How China’s approach could strengthen its AI ecosystem by increasing the supply of high-quality data

Andrew and Kendra also examine the absence of a coherent, pro-growth US data strategy – and why Washington’s overwhelming focus on security risks may be leaving significant economic gains on the table.

Overall, the discussion reveals that China’s seemingly disparate data policies are part of a much larger project: building the infrastructure needed to turn data into a more productive and widely traded economic asset.

• But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?

Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly embarking on its first genuine economy-wide deleveraging effort in years, and what that could mean for China’s growth model.

The two discuss:

• Why recent weakness in investment, consumption, and the property sector won’t trigger a major stimulus package
• Whether Beijing’s annual fiscal "stimulus" has become more theater than meaningful economic support
• How slowing credit growth could signal a deliberate shift in macroeconomic strategy
• Why strong exports and rising inflation may have created a rare opportunity to reduce leverage
• Why policymakers appear to be prioritizing future borrowing capacity over stronger short-term growth

Andrew and Dinny also explore what slower credit growth means for businesses and investors and how Beijing's evolving priorities could complicate trade negotiations with Europe and other major trade partners.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story.

The two discuss:

• Why China’s economy is increasingly operating on “two tracks”
• The continued boom in AI, semiconductors, clean energy, and export-oriented manufacturing
• Why much of the rest of the manufacturing sector is struggling
• The first year-on-year decline in retail sales since the pandemic
• What collapsing auto sales reveal about the limits of Beijing’s trade-in subsidy program
• Why consumer confidence continues to deteriorate despite policy support

Andrew and Joe also examine the growing constraints on policymakers as fiscal pressures mount across the country.

Overall, the discussion reveals an economy that remains remarkably strong in a handful of strategic industries – but increasingly fragile everywhere else.

• On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Cosimo Ries to unpack these two critically important developments in China’s external relations.

First, Andrew and Joe break down Xi’s first trip to North Korea in nearly seven years and what it reveals about Beijing’s priorities amid shifting regional dynamics.

The two discuss:

• Why Xi chose North Korea for his first foreign trip of 2026
• China’s complicated relationship with its only formal treaty ally
• How North Korea’s growing ties with Russia are reshaping Beijing’s calculations
• What practical outcomes may emerge from the visit

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew, Joe, and Cosimo turn to Europe, where concerns about Chinese industrial competition are fueling calls for tougher trade and investment measures.

The conversation covers:

• Whether “China Shock 2.0” is the right way to think about Europe’s challenges
• Growing tensions between the EU and China over trade imbalances and industrial policy
• Why clean energy, EVs, and advanced manufacturing sit at the center of the dispute
• How Chinese companies are responding through localization and investment in Europe
• Whether Europe and China are headed toward a full-blown trade war – or a prolonged period of managed friction

As always, the guys cover a lot of ground, so sit back and enjoy!

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss one of the most important – and least understood – developments in China’s fiscal landscape: asset revitalization.

The two unpack how local governments are increasingly turning underutilized state-owned assets into new revenue streams, and why the strategy may become a key pillar of Beijing’s broader effort to stabilize local finances.

Their conversation covers:

• Why local governments remain under severe fiscal pressure after the collapse of the property market
• What “asset revitalization” actually means in practice
• How provinces are monetizing everything from mining rights and industrial land to transport hubs and public facilities
• How several local governments are already generating meaningful new revenue from the strategy
• The role asset revitalization could play in easing local government austerity and supporting domestic demand
• The risks of self-dealing, hidden leverage, and unsustainable one-off transactions
• Whether asset revitalization can become a durable solution to China’s local government debt and revenue challenges

While asset revitalization is unlikely to solve China’s fiscal problems on its own, Andrew and Dinny argue it may be emerging as one of the most important pieces of the local government finance puzzle – and a development investors and China watchers should be following closely.

While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trump may signal a meaningful shift in how the White House approaches Taiwan – one that could introduce greater uncertainty into an already delicate cross-strait equilibrium.

The conversation explores:

• Why Trump's comments on Taiwan have generated concern despite official claims of policy continuity
• Whether the administration is beginning to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a broader negotiating tool in US-China relations
• How Beijing may interpret Trump's increasingly transactional approach to Taiwan
• Why even a simple phone call between Trump and Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te could trigger a major response from China
• The key signals analysts should watch for to determine whether Beijing's Taiwan policy is truly changing

Then, in the second half of the episode, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine an emerging priority in Beijing's economic strategy: "producer services." While the term may sound obscure, Dinny argues it sits at the heart of China's effort to move up the global value chain and build world-leading companies.

Their discussion covers:

• What producer services are and why Chinese policymakers are suddenly focused on them
• How Beijing hopes to create more Chinese versions of companies like Apple and NVIDIA
• Why Xi Jinping increasingly sees services as a way to strengthen – rather than replace – manufacturing
• The role of design, engineering, R&D, logistics, and branding in China's next stage of industrial development
• How producer services could help address China's youth unemployment challenge
• Whether AI will undermine Beijing's plans to create more high-value white-collar jobs

Taken together, the two conversations offer a window into how China's leaders are thinking about both the country's most sensitive geopolitical challenge and the next phase of its economic transformation.

On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accomplish, and where the relationship may go next.

Jon gets into:

• Why the current US-China situation is more temporary stalemate than budding stability  
• China’s evolving strategy for managing Trump and the broader bilateral relationship
• The significance of Beijing’s proposed framework for “Constructive Strategic Stability”
• How China views US leverage – and its own leverage – in trade, critical minerals, and supply chains
• How the Iran war is shaping the broader geopolitical context for US-China diplomacy

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macroeconomic analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest batch of Chinese macro data, which showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity in April.

The two discuss:

• How the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are weighing on China’s industrial sector
• Why investment activity weakened more than expected last month
• The hidden policy changes dragging on infrastructure investment
• Continued weakness in Chinese consumption and consumer confidence
• What the latest data means for Beijing’s broader economic outlook

On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.

The two discuss:

• Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light on concrete outcomes 
• The significance of China’s high-level diplomatic treatment of Trump 
• What to watch for on export controls and a possible extension of the Busan agreement 
• The prospects for a future “board of investment” mechanism governing US-China capital flows 
• How Iran and the Strait of Hormuz factored into the talks 

Andrew and Cory also assess why both sides appear eager to stabilize relations – even if major structural tensions remain unresolved.

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to break down the PBoC’s latest quarterly monetary policy report and what it reveals about Beijing’s economic priorities.

The two discuss:

• Why the PBoC is signaling greater concern about currency stability 
• How the Iran war is reshaping China’s monetary policy calculus 
• Why interest rate cuts may now be less likely in 2026 
• Potential reforms to how mortgages are priced in China 
• Beijing’s intellectual defense of its export-led growth model 

On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.

The two discuss:

• China’s first-ever use of its blocking rules
• Why Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refiners
• The growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systems
• How China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolving
• Why uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategy

Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.

The three discuss:

• Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the year
• How the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costs
• Beijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investment
• Why consumption remains the economy’s weakest link
• Whether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026

Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.

The two discuss:

• Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwound
• How Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new ways
• The role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech deals
• China’s growing concerns around technology outflow
• What this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competition

Andrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:

• The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responses
• China's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policies
• The US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controls
• US-China strategy as the leadership meeting approaches
• And more!

With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.

To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:

• Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy Stevens
• And Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel

The three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss where key vulnerabilities are lurking, and look ahead to how the Iran situation may upend things, if and as it drags on.

Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.

• China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.

To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined on this week’s episode by two of Trivium’s lead analysts on all things geopolitics, trade, and commodities – Joe Mazur and Even Pay.

The trio gets into:

• China’s most immediate concerns – largely revolving around resource security
• How Beijing’s patient buildup of commodity reserves over the past decade has now been vindicated
• Whether Xi Jinping and company see any strategic upside from the confrontation
• What, if anything, Beijing can do to influence the outcome
• And what it all means – in China’s view – for the longer-term evolution of the geopolitical system

It’s another banger folks – you won’t want to miss it.

The group covers a broad range of issues including:

• Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goals
• The plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream industries
• The nexus of technological and industrial ambition
• How climate goals and industrial policy interact
• China’s latest efforts to solve its compute problem
• How innovation factors into goals for the healthcare and agriculture sectors

Just like the FYP itself, this conversation is wide-ranging and hits on a bunch of key policy themes that matter – both now and in the years ahead.

• There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by six different Trivium policy specialists to walk through their initial takes on what matters most in latest releases.

Then on the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss all the latest in the China electric vehicle (EV) space. Ilaria gets into:

• Successes and failures of Chinese industrial policy in supporting EVs
• The role of the private sector in realizing China’s EV dominance
• How countries throughout the world are responding to the Chinese EV juggernaut – from the US, to the EU, to a range of emerging markets – as they seek to protect or grow their own advanced manufacturing capabilities
• How it all plays into various national conceptions of economic security – in both China and the West

The conversation is a must listen for anyone who cares about the future of global electrification, as well as issues of economic security.

• All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China will automatically benefit by easily positioning itself as a stabilizing global force. 

But reality is more complicated: Chinese leaders are likely just as befuddled by the rapidly changing landscape as their counterparts in NATO.

On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, to unpack how China actually sees “The Rupture” in global politics.

• This is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

But wait, there’s more! Before talking with Jude, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss Beijing‘s recent focus on the need to “invest in people,” and the step-change that might signal for the buildout of China’s welfare state during the next five-year plan period.

In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.

After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:

• Where there might be some potential for investment growth this year
• Why the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recovery

This one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod. 

And a note to listeners: 

• The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.
• But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

• And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.

To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research).

The trio discuss:

• The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward China
• The latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this week
• The upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for April
• Whether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the region

Then Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year.

They touch on:

• Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leaders
• The shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive Forces
• Recent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

The two discuss:

• What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026
• How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faring
• Whether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026

Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.

They get into:

• Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)
• Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energy
• How government policy might address the investment slide
• And where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State Grid

It’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

• On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.
• The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.
• Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.

What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.

They look at:

• How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulators
• Why authorities have settled on this particular combination of policies
• And what signals Beijing is trying to send markets

But wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:

• Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up Manus
• The specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the deal
• The wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystem

The gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

• Fixed asset investment declined by double digits
• Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 months
• Retail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three years

But things aren’t as bad as they seem.

This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:

• China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-driven
• Why China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggest
• The reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correction

Andrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:

1. What's going on with China's general licenses and export trends
2. Trends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiative
3. How the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactively
4. How China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and why

Putting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.

• We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical minerals
• But this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)
• Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.

Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.

• Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.

And that's exactly what the gents do!

They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).

Then they get into:

• Where we might expect extra government spending
• Whether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in program
• How Beijing intends to boost consumption

And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:

• How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacity
• Why Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free market
• What Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look like
• And what it all means for the rest of the world

Then, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systems
• Xi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behavior
• China’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkit

The gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.

Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:

• The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026

Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.

They discuss:

• How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensions
• Whether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China Shock
• And how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods

Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.

• Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:

• The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pause
• How political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businesses
• And whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full year

Andrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:

• What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look like
• The reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first place
• Benchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build out
• The highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failure

It’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!

Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production

• On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decade
• Then on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade war

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.

That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.

Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:

• The details of the trade agreement, as we know them
• What China thinks it got out of the deal
• The pros and cons of the one-year timeframe
• Future tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiral

Kendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:

• The headline macro takeaways from the FYP Proposals
• Chinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five years
• How policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economy
• China’s more assertive position on the world stage

It’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:

• The most recent China macro data
• Economic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026
• Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year Plan

Andrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:

• How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China relationship
• How the fentanyl issue offers the most promising path toward building trust
• The impact of the BIS’ new 50% rule on corporate compliance
• Why US companies still value the China market (The reasons might surprise you!)

It’s so good you’ll want to listen to it twice.

By the by: The fellas mention this report in the pod, which is very much worth checking out, as well: China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035

After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.

• At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.

To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.

The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.

• The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.

Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:

• The key details of China’s export control expansion
• What’s new, and what’s not in these controls
• Beijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiations
• How the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are huge
• Whether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdiction
• What all this means for ongoing US-China talks

The gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.

• For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.

• Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.

The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."

The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.

• Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.

Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.

• Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.
• And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.

In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.

They delve into:

• The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in China
• The six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusion
• What to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months ahead
• China’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ vision
• How officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talent

The gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.

• The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.

You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!

• But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.

The key parts of that new model are well known: 

• Industrial upgrading
• Aggressive export growth
• Technological innovation 

What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.

For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization. 

CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.

In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.

That’s not supposed to happen:

• Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.

• They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.

• Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.
• Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global South leaders – the one-on-ones with India and Russia (again), alongside Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea stood out as particularly notable.
• And of course, on Wednesday, many of those same leaders joined Xi in Beijing for a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the ending of the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression” – or what most of the world refers to as World War II.

The big question: Was all this pageantry simply good optics for the Chinese?

• Or will the past week mark a major turning point in China’s hoped-for shift to a New World Order?

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver hash it all out.

• They also talk through how to make small talk when a fellow authoritarian leader floats the idea of immortality.

• Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. 
• China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.

But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.

In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. 

They also explore Beijing's:

• Concept of a "slow bull market"
• And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.

• The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.

They break down:

• What China is doing to bolster its leverage
• Where the US side's response is succeeding and failing
• What a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.

• Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.

They discuss:

• Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investment
• Why consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward services
• And why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

• Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. 

The gents get into China's:

• Latest export miracle
• Persistently weak household consumption
• Efforts to deal with overcapacity

Then they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.

The two discuss:

• The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI plan
• The conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issue
• How the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI plan
• The competing visions around open-source AI development
• China’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI plan
• And which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approaches

It’s good to be back!

• After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!

Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. 

• Enjoy!

Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.

• Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.

The two discuss:

• The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issues
• Other signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approach
• The ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would face
• Parallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled out

The gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.

Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. 

It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.

But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.

• That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.

In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

The three discuss a variety of topics including:

• China’s improving consumer data
• The current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock in
• The latest on US-China trade talks
• The latest on EU-China trade talks
• How China issues played into the G7 meetings in Canada

Come for the macro-econ data, stay for the geopolitical hot takes!

The two discuss:

• The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeks
• What we know about the Xi-Trump call, and what needs to happen next to keep things on track
• China’s perspective on its rare earth export controls – and how the slow-moving approval process is upending global manufacturing
• Potential paths forward to a lasting agreement around US-China trade
• The EU perspective on all this – and how US-China negotiations may leave Europe out in the cold

The upshot: US-China trade talks are currently in a much better place after the call than they were just a few days ago – but whether that will last is anyone’s guess. 

The three discuss:

• The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to China
• The EDA landscape in China and whether Chinese tech firms can step in to fill this void in the semiconductor supply chain
• A spate of other US restrictions on chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipment
• How the Chinese will react to these moves, and what they suggest about the Trump administration’s internal coordination on China (or lack thereof)
• What it all means for the 90-day trade truce – and the prospects for wider tech and trade negotiations

This stuff is pretty wild – and pretty depressing – but stick with us to the end, because we at least try to close on an upbeat note. 

The gents discuss:

• The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet export licenses
• Whether China would consider removing rare earths from its dual-use export control list – spoiler alert: it won’t
• Reactions to supply chain disruptions from electronics companies, defense manufacturers, and the US national security realm
• China’s most recent threat to retaliate against companies that comply with US rules targeting Huawei chips via the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law
• The fragile nature of the 90-day US-China de-escalation, and what developments might derail the détente

Strap in, we go deep in the weeds in this one.

• They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve.
• And finally, the gents discussed where Beijing was really focused this week – deepening ties with Latin America.

You definitely won’t want to miss this one!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday.

• The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC relending facilities, provident fund mortgages, and insurance companies’ capital requirements – to explain just what officials hope to achieve.

They then round things off with a chat about the latest developments in the US-China trade war, and touch on China’s plan to double down on exports in the years ahead.

Enjoy!

• Whether Beijing has Trump’s number
• The shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilities
• Conflicting reports as to whether China and the US are actively negotiating
• China’s patient approach to stimulus – with the recent Politburo meeting opting not to provide additional domestic economic support
• The Politburo study session on AI – and how China is trying to position itself globally

As always, there’s lots to chew on!

• Friday’s pause in the tariff escalation
• China’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate further
• Whether the pause has staying power
• Why a painful stalemate is still far better than some of the alternatives

The two then examine China’s latest export controls on rare earth elements.

• Cory breaks down the key dynamics, implications for companies, and what to expect next.

The two discuss:

• Whether we are now locked in an unstoppable escalatory spiral
• Possible off-ramps for de-escalation
• How each side is misreading the other
• The best- and worst-case scenarios from here
• China’s likely policy support for the domestic economy amid sky-high tariffs

Buckle up!

• Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on Friday
• Discuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK Hutchison
• Preview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs

Then Andrew speaks with Trivium’s Head of China Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to get into Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying car technology.

• This one covers a lot of ground – and you won’t want to miss any of it.

• Global businesses in Beijing for the China Development Forum
• The messages Chinese leaders are sending to the business community
• The stark contrast in mood between domestic and foreign businesses in China
• Whether consumer sentiment is finally turning a corner
• Beijing’s latest updates to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law

The two first discuss the biggest policy move out of China over the last week:

·       Beijing’s big new plan to boost consumption this year

Spoiler alert: There’s a lot in the plan, but we’re still skeptical it will be enough to get consumers to pull out their wallets any time soon. 

Andrew and Even then discuss how all the latest moves in the US-China trade war are impacting China’s ag sector – and Xi Jinping’s view of food security. 

·       They also touch on what may be coming next on the ag, food security, and trade fronts. 

Enjoy!

To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary.

• Spoiler alert: It’s pretty much all about innovation.

But wait, there’s more! We round out the pod with a special discussion of the evolving critical minerals race with Lewis Black, co-founder and CEO of Almonty Industries, the world’s largest non-Chinese tungsten miner.

• Lewis joins Andrew and Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research, to examine supply chain geopolitics and its impacts on economic and national security.

Needless to say, Lewis has some unique insights to share on:

• How the West became "addicted to the simplicity" of Chinese supply chains
• Why the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wake-up call in the crit-min space
• Why disparities between commercial and national interests mean the US simply can’t build out critical supply chains in the same way China has
• How he would advise the US to approach diversification

You won’t want to miss a minute.

In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report.

• Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an escalating trade war with the US – the stakes are high for getting the policy settings right.

The gents kick things off by analyzing the implications of the 2025 GDP, inflation, and budget deficit targets for China’s economic prospects.

• They then dig into the spending and borrowing targets for the year ahead.

Spoiler alert: There are some big numbers, but there’s less here than meets the eye.

Finally, they wrap up with a quick discussion of China’s rapid-fire response to the second round of Trump tariffs.

And this BIG: With this podcast episode, we are officially joining the Sinica Podcast Network. 

• Following Dinny and Andrew's conversation, stay tuned for a follow up conversation between Trivium China Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, and the man behind Sinica, Kaiser Kuo.
• It's a great discussion, and we're all excited about the new pod partnership!

• And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss:

• Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executives
• What the meeting portends for private companies’ future role in advancing China’s tech ambitions
• The recent bevy of AI infrastructure investment announcements out of China
• How the recent DeepSeek revelation is driving it all
• China’s likely response to Trump’s America First Investment Policy

They also touch on whether “another DeepSeek” is lurking somewhere in China’s AI ecosystem, just waiting to be discovered – and how to find it.

If we do say so ourselves: This one is a can’t-miss, folks.

• We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did.
• We’ll have a lot more on all these topics in future episodes.

• So how’s that going?

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including:

• How Beijing has been using calls for climate action to drive industrial production up the value chain
• Where China’s painfully overcrowded new energy vehicle (NEV) market goes from here
• What recent renewable energy reforms in the world’s largest electricity system mean for the future of both energy and manufacturing in China

In looking at the issues, the gents draw from some of our less publicly visible research – providing snapshots of a much bigger (and messier) picture.

• Which is to say, there’s much more to come.

• Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.
• Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%.

In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025.

They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

After an extended hiatus from the pod, your friendly Trivium China team is back in the saddle to keep you up to date on all the latest happenings.

This episode features a discussion on the week’s back-and-forth between China and the US on the econ and tech fronts, featuring:

• Your loyal pod host, Andrew Polk, Trivium Co-founder
• Trey McArver, Trivium Co-founder
• Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research

After setting the scene with a quick rundown of the bevy of back-and-forth punches between the two countries since the start of the year, the gents dig into China’s response to the latest Trump tariffs, discussing:

• The multi-faceted nature of the response – and the message Beijing is trying to send the Trump administration
• What these moves mean for China’s future approach to economic and tech competition with the US
• The disparity between Trump’s across-the-board tariffs versus Xi’s moves to inflict more targeted pain
• What lies ahead in China’s evolving use of its export control regime

There was a lot of ground to cover – and we suspect this is only the beginning.

In this podcast, our last for 2024, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what we learned from this year’s CEWC.

We didn’t have high hopes for the readout from the CEWC.

• The summary typically gives away very little.

But the document was a little meatier than usual this year.

Andrew and Dinny discuss:

• How authorities will try to boost consumption
• Fiscal and monetary policy plans for the year ahead
• Their thoughts on the leaked GDP growth and budget deficit targets for 2025

This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs to go through all the latest.

The gents discuss:

• The details of China’s latest export controls on critical minerals
• China’s evolving approach to economic retaliation against the US
• Why we all should have seen this coming
• The most likely minerals next on China’s export control list
• China’s new long-arm jurisdiction approach to enforcement of export controls
• The anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia – and the likely options moving forward

One key takeaway: The timing of these most recent moves by China – as the Biden administration winds down and the Trump administration gears up – seems particularly canny.

• Biden can do little to respond.
• And Trump has no incentive to respond, at least not at this point.

The upshot: China appears to be signaling to Trump that it is better prepared to fight back on the trade and tech war fronts this time around.

• So your move, Mr. Trump!

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025.

• To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top economic policymakers, expected to take place next week.

The gents discuss their predictions for what the CEWC will decide regarding key policy settings for 2025, including:

• Interest rates
• The exchange rate
• Fiscal spending

Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:

• Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategy
• China’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protectionism
• The remarkably creative approach that Chinese officials seem to be prepping as a second US-China trade war looms
• What to watch as China's approach to the US unfolds in the years ahead

• It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disappointed them and what they think comes next.

They delve into:

• What the package means for financial stability and local government austerity policies
• What additional fiscal support we can expect in the new year
• Why the package undershot expectations

They also spend some time discussing Beijing's uninspired response to weak household spending, and whether authorities have misdiagnosed a structural problem as cyclical.

Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver to examine how Chinese officials have steadily built up robust countersanctions and export control regimes to hit back against perceived US economic aggression.

They start by looking at the latest restrictions on US drone maker Skydio under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and also discuss recent moves to:

• Undertake an Unreliable Entity List investigation into PVH Group, the US parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, for complying with the US Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act
• Potentially begin a cybersecurity review of Intel’s products in China
• Conduct a cybersecurity review of US chipmaker Micron’s products in China
• Bolster the wider export control regime

The upshot: Chinese officials appear to be going on the offensive with their countersanctions and export control regimes.

Andrew and Trey discuss what it all means for foreign companies in China, US-China relations under a second Trump administration, and the broader securitization of the global economy.

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what’s likely to be in the stimulus package and where it might prove surprising.

They also discuss how the upcoming US Presidential election factors into Beijing’s policy making, and whether it might influence the stimulus package.

• But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers.

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data.

They then discuss a recent essay by Liu Yuanchun, China’s most influential economic advisor, about the rationale behind recent support measures, and why the support amounts to more than just stimulus.

The gents also discuss:

• Why it’s taken Beijing so long to commit to providing stimulus
• What can we expect from monetary policy in the year ahead

• Yet none of them have delivered what everyone’s waiting for: stimulus.

Of course, as is always the case, the devils in the detail – and the regulators left out a lot of detail.

In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what was announced at the MoF and MoHURD press conferences.

• They then get into the potential shape of what the stimulus package will look like, and what they’re hoping for.

• The likely timing of the much-anticipated fiscal stimulus
• How much might be rolled out
• And how it will be used

Finally, they get into the constraints holding Beijing back from doing more.

• On September 24, the central bank (PBoC) rolled out a range of monetary support measures to bolster the economy, boost share prices, and provide property developers with financial relief.
• On September 26, the Politburo surprised everyone by dedicating its September meeting to the economy, with the meeting readout strongly hinting that more fiscal support is coming.

In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Head of China Markets Research Dinny McMahon discuss:

• Why rates were cut, even after the PBoC said cuts are increasingly difficult
• The implications of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and why PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng took the unusual step of providing forward guidance about a potential additional cut
• Why the PBoC is prepared to throw up to RMB 2.4 trillion in central bank funding into the stock market
• What a fiscal stimulus from Beijing might look like