The Risk Takers Podcast

A Sustainable Approach to Downswings (+RFQ IDs) | Ep 146

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 06:00:00 -0400

We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A.

0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting

41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown?

1:01:00 Rest of News

1:12:50 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Why Some Stats Predict Better Than Others & Kalshi "Death Markets" | Ep 145

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 06:00:00 -0500

NERD ALERT!!

We get back to our roots today and talk about how to go about finding stats that are predictive in sports modelling. The episode includes a deep dive into how Kalshi settled & communicated their "Khamenei out as leader" market. We touch on the issues w/ "last traded price" settlement and the similarities to the Cardi B. rules debacle.

0:00 Predictive Sports Stats

31:45 Iran Leader Kalshi Market

45:50 Rest of News.

54:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

(Rebroadcast) How to Build a Simple Sports Betting Model | Ep 144

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 06:00:00 -0500

*This is a re-broadcast episode because of being unable to record because of travel. MANY FAMOUS PODCASTS DO THIS SO IT MUST BE OKAY. This episode is a good listen for those who are looking to build a basic sports model that spits out a useful number.

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

RFQ Lesson from Top Kalshi "Combo" Market Marker w/ Egzee | Ep 143

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 06:00:00 -0500

Today we have on college junior & top prediction market trader Eric (Egzee). Egzee started on OddsJam and quickly worked his way up to the top of Kalshi leaderboards as one of the biggest RFQ market makers in sports. He defends his decision to take an internship at a respected quant firm, and walks us through how he manages one of the biggest Kalshi MM operations as a solo-operator in college. Really mind blowing stuff here - must listen, we learned a lot from Eric.

0:00 Intro & Sports Betting Start

18:00 Transition to Kalshi

55:00 RFQs and Advanced Automation

1:21:00 School & Deciding to do an Internship

1:38:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Super Bowl Recap, Cardi B-gate & Insider Trading Galore | Ep 142

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:00:00 -0500

The boys start to think insider trading MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM when thousands of minimum wage employees already know the resolution of 50 million contract markets. SP & GP also recap their superbowl betting experience on Kalshi and take questions.

0:00 Intro

1:45 GP & SP's Super Bowl betting

27:15 Cardi B's Epic Performance

47:00 Insider Trading on PMs

1:01:14 Rest of News

13:40 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Small Data Problems & Gambling Twitter Actuaries w/ Mr. PeanutBettor | Ep 141

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 05:00:00 -0500

IN THIS EPISODE WE ARE JOINED BY ESTEEMED GAMBLING TWITTER POSTER AND ORIGINATOR MR PEANUTBETTOR. LISTEN TO HEAR MANY SMART THINGS AND SOME FUNNY JOKES.

0:00 Intro

10:15 Trading at Deck Prism

27:00 Originating

57:00 Prediction Markets

1:18:00 Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Best Monetize Great Projections in 2026 (ETR Debate) | Ep 140

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 07:00:00 -0500

A heated debate broke out on Twitter between sharp bettors. On one end Establish the Run, a well respected business that sells information to bettors. On the other - sharp sports bettors who either use or have to deal with that information in their market.

This debate highlights the fundamental issues that come with selling good information in sports betting, and more broadly the best way to monetize sharp information (JUST BET IT BRO v. Selling)

0:00 Intro

2:15 ETR & The Challenge of Sharp Touting

43:45 News

1:00:15 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

A Gambling Man and a Family Man w/ Adam aka TheBeagleBets | Ep 139

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 05:00:00 -0500

This week we interview long-time professional gambler Adam aka BeagleBets (https://x.com/thebeaglebets).

Adam quickly rose to the top of the Heads Up SNG ladder, playing $5k buy-ins before dropping out of college to pursue poker full time. From there his career spanned many eras, which got him to where he is today: betting NBA Player Props and betting live sports. Adam is a very kind to share an honest account of the ups and downs of life as a professional bettor, along with advice to those who want to do this full-time but maintain a family and personal life. So much fun to record this one.

0:00 Intro

2:30 Start with advantage play

5:00 Full-time poker

13:15 Adding sports when poker got tougher

22:30 Building sims & scaling sports betting

30:15 Manually betting NBA player props

50:30 Transition to live betting

1:04:20 How to have a long betting career

1:21:40 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

What Props & Derivatives You Should Bet & DK Pick6 Scandal | Ep 138

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 08:00:00 -0500

In this episode the boys talk about how to go about selecting props & derivatives markets to focus on and how to get started w/ modeling these. The Pick6 past-post scandal takes up a good chunk of the news and the Q&A is very meaty!

0:00 How to Pick Props to Bet

27:00 DK Pick6 Past-post

45:45 Other News

1:01:45 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Sports Betting Legend Turned Sports Market Maker Rufus Peabody Joins | Ep 137

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 08:00:00 -0500

You may know him from Bet The Process. You may know him as Dogname atop the Kalshi leaderboard. You may know him as the best golf bettor (RIP GP) around...

Rufus Peabody joins the show this week to talk about his betting philosophy and his recent adventure into prediction markets. He's been winning at sports betting since 2008, and is still at the very top of the betting ecosystem today. Must listen!

0:00 Intro

2:00 Starting in Betting

17:00 Going out on Own

23:00 Getting Started w/ Golf

28:30 Exploring New Sports

43:00 What is Rufus' edge?

1:101:15 Prediction Markets

1:32:55 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

2025 Recap and 2026 Predictions + "Ins & Outs"| Ep 136

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 05:00:00 -0500

We cap off the year with a fun episode where SP and GP recap their 2025 betting year before setting some 2026 goals. The episode ends with 2026 industry predictions and some sappy feelings.

0:00 Intro

6:00 2025 Recap

22:10 2026 "Ins & Outs"

1:07:30 2026 Predictions

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Internal Market Making & Simulation Elitism w/ Louie from NoVig | Ep 135

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 05:00:00 -0500

We did it. We bagged another big guest's first ever podcast appearance. You may know Louie from Twitter (https://x.com/LMastro99) - but if you don't, he has had great success on both sides of the counter as a sportsbook trader and NBA originator. He started at FanDuel before being one of the first people to join NoVig and growing their trading team w/ former guest BigBuckHunter.

0:00

1:30 Getting started with FanDuel

22:30 Leaving FD for NoVig

30:50 Internal Market Making

46:45 Modeling Philosophy

1:13:00 The 3 P's Of Betting

1:17:00 Tout Thoughts

1:32:20 Biggest Exchange Money Makers

1:41:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Hot Takes: Is "Directionally Correct" dead + Aging Curve in Betting? | Ep 134

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 07:00:00 -0500

Today we rip a hot takes episode and talk about how Kalshi has just invented the Parlay. Tons of great questions at the end - thanks for all those who asked a question!

0:00 Intro

2:20 Hot Takes

35:00 News

58:30 Questions

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Riggery & F*ckery in the Early Prediction Market Days w/ CSP Trading | Ep 133

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 05:00:00 -0500

This could be consider our first full Prediction Market focused guest. CSP Trading was an early MM on prediction markets before we had even heard of them. He walks us through the history of PMs through his experience trading on them and growing with the space to where they are now.

0:00 Getting Started in PMs

13:24 Early Prediction Market War Stories

37:45 Insider Trading in PMs

45:00 Getting Into Sports

56:30 Market Making Strategies

1:33:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

When Manual > Automated & All Old Pick6 Strategies Revealed | Ep 132

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 07:00:00 -0500

SP and GP talk about times being manual has made them more money than being automated and have a huge post-mortem on the old version of Pick6 where they both lay out most of their strategies. News is crazy as always - Poly US coming, Kalshi & Robinhood breakup, Prime plays it straight w/ winning bettors.

Then a big Q&A!

0:00 Intro

1:15 Why Being Manual is Sometimes Better Than Being Automated

22:20 Pick6 Tell-All

44:00 News

1:23:15 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Devig To Ball Knowledge While Live Betting w/ Pads | Ep 131

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 05:00:00 -0500

Huge day - we get Pads (https://x.com/padadiso) to come on his first podcast ever! Pads is one of the most successful bettors of the post-PASPA era, making most of his money live betting on sportsbooks and now exchanges.

He talks live betting, joining discords, doing terrible things to Fliff and why it's almost impossible to replicate his edge.

Thank you to Pads for coming on and thank you all for your questions!

0:00 Intro to Advantage Play

9:10 Joining Discords, Buying Tools and Content

15:15 Crushing Live Betting

44:00 Joining BookieBeats

53:30 Prediction Market Taking isn't Dead

1:16:15 Going Public on Twitter

1:21:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Lessons We Learned "Booking Bets" & FD/DK Defect | Ep 130

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 06:00:00 -0500

Today we share the biggest lessons we have learned from posting liquidity on exchanges and taking bets. GP has some more empathy for sportsbooks in some spots and none in others while SP is shocked with how few people have an opinion in today's sharp betting ecosystem.

0:00 Things We Learned Posting Liquidity

39:10 DK/FD Go for it on PMs

50:00 Kalshi on PrizePicks & other news

1:08:00 Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

What Sports Bettors Can Learn From Casino APs w/ Richard Munchkin | Ep 129

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 06:00:00 -0500

AP of 50+ years, host of Gambling with an Edge and author of Gambling Wizards - Richard Munchkin (https://x.com/RWM21) joins the show. From his start as an AP in old Las Vegas to the end where he shares the most...interesting(?) Bayesian update, this episode is a ride. Richard's story telling is unmatched in the industry - and he has a career of professional gambling to draw content from. We talk about his early days, and what he's doing now with regards to sports betting and other casino games. Can't miss episode!

0:00 Intro

2:45 How Richard Started w/ AP play

12:00 Lost Skill of Being Willing to Battle

22:00 Best Disguise Stories

28:15 Networking & Working w/ Teams

33:15 Traveling the World as an AP

46:45 Getting the Money Out is King

56:30 How to Scout Games

1:18:00 Why Richard Does Content

1:39:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

You're Probably Underbetting...Here's How You Bet More | Ep 128

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 05:00:00 -0500

We talk about why good gamblers bet too little in big spots, plus Polymarket coming to the US with low fees & why GP is on an anti-courtsiding tirade.

We also give our take on why dating sites are like betting markets - and how to avoid adverse selection there.

0:00 Intro

1:15 Sizing Up

32:00 News/Scandals/Fees

1:00:45 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Betting Huge on Madden Sims & The LLWS w/ Isaac | Ep 127

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Today we are joined by Isaac (https://x.com/Ias0801) to talk about his path to pro betting right out of college. He shares stories about how he cracked the madden sim betting market during covid, texted correlated parlays to his bookie (that got accepted) and his work now in the MLB and CBB. Enjoy!

0:00 Intro/ Early Advantage Play

8:00 Finding a Holy Grail Spot to Start Sports Betting

21:45 How to Start Betting your Own Numbers

38:20 Specializing in MLB & CBB

57:00 Decision to Go Pro (telling your parents)

1:05:30 Networking is Like Betting

1:12:45 Future Plans & Prediction Markets

1:21:00 Q&A and Final Thoughts

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Not Lose on Prediction Markets & Kalshi Outage | Ep 126

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 05:00:00 -0400

We had so many good questions we had to pivot from our main topic to do a multi-part Q&A/News episode. The first part of the podcast is questions that involve strategy around winning (and not getting crushed) on exchanges. Then news with the Kalshi outage and some other noteworthy items. And finally a mixed bag of questions at the end.

0:00 Intro

2:00 Prediction Market Power Hour

56:20 News

1:27:20 Mega Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

$400k PointsBet Heist & Exchange Warfare w/ Maple | Ep 125

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 05:00:00 -0400

You heard about him in Shippers episode. The person who leveraged a friendly VIP host and square looking action into a $400k win at PointsBet - a notoriously tight-fisted book.

This week we welcome on the man, the myth, the legend Maple (https://x.com/maple420069) onto the podcast to talk about soft-book war stories and his evolution onto exchanges. Can't miss episode!

0:00 Intro

1:45 Intro to Advantage Play

11:20 SGPs Before They Were Cool

20:50 The PointsBet Story

42:10 $2M MMA SGP Bad Beat

58:58 Shift to Exchanges

1:33:00 News, Questions & Hot Takes

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Failed Betting Projects & Kalshi Parlays | Ep 124

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 06:00:00 -0400

This episode SP and GP go over a few of the betting projects they started building that never came to fruition. The news is dominated by prediction markets - with a breakdown of the parlay product that Kalshi is offering. And we hit a few listener questions at the end!

0:00 Intro

4:00 Failed betting projects

38:00 News

1:26:00 Listener Questions

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Beat Big Markets & Bottom Up Live Betting w/ Ant DeRosa | Ep 123

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 06:00:00 -0400

This episode we have on a true legend in the space, Ant DeRosa. Ant worked as a trader at some of the sharpest offshore books before switching sides of the counter and building one of the most successful betting groups currently operating. From dealing with line manipulation to the details behind finding alpha live that you won't see on an odds screen, this has it all. We even get dragged into talking about the ethics around angle shooting and where the line is at the end! This is a can't miss episode if you have any aspirations of betting at the highest levels. Follow Ant on Twitter: https://x.com/DeRosa_Antonino

0:00 Intro

2:30 Magic the Gathering & Start w/ Pinnacle

17:30 Trading at a Sharp Book

42:15 Switching to Betting

47:15 Bottom Up Live Betting

1:05:00 Scaling a Betting Group

1:44:00 Q&A and Hot Takes

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Most Important Lessons from Our Recent Guests | Ep 122

Wed, 24 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This week we debrief on some of the most important, common threads that ran through our interviews with our recent guests. Why are the vibes based approaches not that far from the data driven? Is anyone really a specialist? Why did three guests say no one can get more out of an account than them?

All of this plus news and Q&A - Enjoy!

0:00 Intro

2:30 Account Maxxing as a Superpower

10:20 Operations Over Everything

18:30 Specialist or Generalist?

25:00 Model Doesn't Need to Be Complicated

37:30 No Main Markets

41:00 News

1:01:50 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Building an Unexploitable Betting & Trolling Strategy w/ The Shipper | Ep 121

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Today we have on at times one of our harshest critics and at other times our biggest cheerleader, The Shipper (@shipthejustice on Twitter)

Shipper is that rare person who was successful as a trader at a book and then as a professional bettor. This experience makes him one of the go to experts on the topics of account longevity, priming, and maxing account value. This episode he presents a compelling case for why you should have a poker-style bluffing strategy for betting, talks on why the retweet is the perfect troll, and explains why everything sucks now and it was better before.

00:00:00 Intro

00:02:40 Tales from the PointsBet Trading Floor

00:23:50 Priming and Max Account Value

00:41:45 Why it's Better to Have a Partner

00:49:10 Build Your Own Models

01:00:30 Rorts!

01:11:00 Twitter Trolling & Sharp Content

01:22:00 PMs, Exchanges & State of the Industry

01:45:00 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Why Tracking Bets the Right Way Makes You Money & Some Great Q&A | Ep 120

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

SP says that there may be nothing more predictive of whether someone is a winning bettor than how diligently they track their bets.

Is tracking your bets a magic pill that makes anyone profitable? It's not magic - but there are a lot of alpha generating benefits of tracking that go along with the important accounting hygiene and performance measuring.

00:00 – Why Track Your Bets?
05:00 – Taxes & Record Keeping
07:00 – Performance Measurement
16:00 – Alpha Generation & Model Insights
33:00 – Exchanges & DFS Use Cases
44:00 – News Roundup
1:09:00 – Listener Questions

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Vibes-Based Tennis Betting & CNN Stardom w/ Isaac Rose-Berman | Ep 119

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This week we interview a man who wears many hats. TV Star, Tennis Bettor, and Author Isaac Rose-Berman.

You may know him from the CNN gambling documentary, you may know him as roundrobin42 on twitter, or you may have seen him on Circle Back. But on this show we go deep into his betting first - learning a lot about betting tennis on the way. After that we have a discussion on news/ industry topics where one person (Isaac) actually knows what he's talking about.

0:00 Intro to Advantage Gambling

9:00 Tennis Betting for Fun and Profit

27:30 How to Track Your Subjective Adjustments

36:45 Finding Good Non-Major Markets

41:30 What's Next in Betting for Isaac?

48:00 Isaac's Writing/ Consulting

1:02:30 News

1:20:40 Q&A

Isaac's Newsletter: https://howgamblingworks.substack.com/

Isaac's Twitter: https://x.com/roundrobin42

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Sports Betting Simulations, CNN Gambling Doc & TSwift Engagement Insider Trading | Ep 118

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Regardless of if you think we are in a simulation or not - there is no denying that simulations can make you money sports betting. GP & SP breakdown what a simulation model is, when you should use it, and how you can get started with your own sim this sports season.

We get a little technical early - but don't worry, we get really un-technical in the news and Q&A (ending with an actual discussion about sports).

00:00: Intro
02:00: Simulations vs. Models in Sports Betting
50:00: The CNN Gambling Documentary
01:08:00: Prediction Market Rundown w/ TSwift Inside Trading
01:26:00: DraftKings Stops Credit Card Deposits & More News
01:29:30: Q&A + Bayesian Updates

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Building a "Scheme Team" w/ Dr. Plop | Ep 117

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 05:00:00 -0400

We are joined by Casino AP turned Sports Bettor Dan aka Dr. Plop. Dan talks to us about getting into advantage play by multi-accounting Instacart signup bonuses. Then his journey continues through blackjack, slots, churn plays and finally ends up at "about 70%" sports betting.

Dan now runs a team of 4 that at any moment could be sitting at an electronic horse racing machine or betting six-figures on sports. Like a degen Oceans 11!

Follow Dan on Twitter: https://x.com/DrPL0P

00:00:45 – Instacart Advantage Play
00:13:40 – AP Lessons Applied to Sportsbooks
00:30:31 – Making the Switch to Sports
00:52:27 – Logistics & Scaling
01:15:45 – News
01:47:19 – Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Scaling an Edge, NoVig Raises $18 Million & Polymarket Taps the Glass | Ep 116

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 13:00:00 -0400

Find an amazing edge yet still poor? If so - this episode aims to help you correct that. Along with advice on scaling an edge (including SP's vertical v. horizontal scaling lesson) - we break down a big week of industry news and field some questions regarding Kalshi, working with a group and GPs return to twitter.

00:00 Live from Las Vegas – First Impressions
02:15 Scaling an Edge: The Most Valuable Skill in Betting
04:33 Vertical vs. Horizontal Scaling – Two Paths to Growth
08:45 Operational Efficiency & The Big Spot Decision
17:09 Applying Skills Across Sports & Markets
29:05 Industry News – Ohio Micro-Bet Ban & Pinnacle API Shutdown
1:17:49 Venmo “Gambling” Scandal & Rule vs. Integrity Violations
1:22:50 Illinois Surcharge Tax, No-Vig Launch & Exchange Betting
1:32:20 Listener Q&A & Book Recommendations
2:04:15 Closing Thoughts – Staying Ahead of the Next Edge

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

"I predict the injury report" - Pro NBA Bettor CalvinAndHobo Joins | Ep 115

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 05:00:00 -0400

NBA prop crusher Calvin (CalvinandHobo) joins the show this week to talk about what it takes to win as a ball-knower who doesn't have a model.

Calvin had an interesting journey into professional betting that included becoming a cult hero on JuiceReel before he had to stop posting picks once he won too much and gained too many followers. (He explains why this is a big problem)

Calvin doesn't model - but puts in insane hours of research to understand rotations, coach speak and injury predictions. While some bettors rush to bet the injury report - he predicts it.

Calvin on Twitter: https://x.com/CalvinAndHobo

0:00 - Intro/ Calvin's start betting

9:35 – Inside Calvin’s NBA Prop Betting Process
14:00 – Coach Honesty Rankings & Rotation Intel
20:00 – Why Player Props > Sides & Totals
32:00 – Scaling Up, Quitting the Job & Betting Partnerships
41:00 – Turning Down Tout Life & Ethics of Selling Picks
52:00 – Future of NBA Props & Growth via Volume + SGPs
59:30 – Gambling Legislation, Kalshi & Tax Debate
1:20:30 – Listener Q&A, Dead Edges & Final Reflections

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Networking w/ Winning Sports Bettors (it's not as bad as it sounds) | Ep 114

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Unfortunately...talking to other people and being social can be really +EV

In this episode we help by giving a dive deep into the how and why of building strong partnerships in the sports betting world. From meeting the right people and forming a core team, to scaling through network effects, online presence, and industry events like BetBash — we cover the strategies, pitfalls, and real-world experiences behind successful collaboration.

Plus, we form opinions on key headlines around betting scandals and gambling laws that are very loosely researched then answer your questions. One of the questions involves how to get your wife to like you - so if you need help there it's covered.

03:00 Origin Story & Starting the Betting Partnership
09:45 Going Solo vs. Teaming Up Early
16:00 Expanding the Team & Building a Network
21:00 Growing an Online Presence
30:00 Best Practices for Networking & Outreach
44:00 Plans for BetBash & Guest Recruiting
49:30 News (You can get limited in PvP)
1:20:00 – Listener Questions: Strategy, Partnerships, Music & More

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Krushing Kalshi w/ Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes (and Edge Graveyard) | Ep 113

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots.

Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some of the biggest bets that hit the exchanges.

If you don't listen to this episode you must not like putting down big money on huge edges!

Chris on Twitter: https://x.com/flupnolide

0:00 Intro & Start of Betting
11:30 Rundown of Flup's Operation
22:00 Flup's Superpower: Account Priming
39:00 Benefit of Winning Circa Survivor
44:45 Why do content?
53:45 $300k Sinner Bet
1:00:00 Gambling Twitter 0 Poker IQ
1:06:00 Edge Graveyard
1:29:00 Everything Prediction Markets
2:05:00 Hot Takes & Bayesian Updates

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Blow Your Offseason? Pay the Price!! & DK Prediction Market Move | Ep 112

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports. With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking around new betting markets, they share how smart time use now sets you up for a stronger fall.

00:00 – Offseason Mindset
06:30 – Cut, Clean, Optimize
14:00 – Big Projects That Pay Off
22:00 – Poking Around New Markets
33:30 – Learning, Documentation & Skill Building
48:00 – Industry News & What’s Next

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

90% Trouble: How the New Tax Law Hits Gamblers w/ Gary Kondler | Ep 111

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB?

In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill.

From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and DFS grinders, Gary walks us through exactly what’s changing, who’s most at risk, and how to protect yourself. Whether you're a solo bettor, a casual casino-goer, or part of a syndicate, this episode could save you thousands—and a major audit headache.

Kondler & Associates: https://kondlercpa.com/

00:00 – The Big Change: Understanding the BBB Bill
09:00 – Real Tax Impact: Examples That Hurt
21:00 – Filing as a Pro vs. Amateur
36:00 – Sessions Method, W2Gs & Audit Risk
51:00 – State-Level Chaos & Planning for 2026

1:12:00 - GP & SP React & Speculate Wildly

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Gambling State of the Union (Be like bugs and SURVIVE) | Ep 110

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen.

0:00 – Opening Thoughts & Why This Episode Exists
5:30 – New Jersey Proxy Betting Bill
20:30 – The Sweeps Crackdown
29:30 – Prediction Markets: The New Gray Market Darling
38:30 – Underdog vs. California?
55:30 – The Federal Tax Bomb That Could Kill Sports Betting
1:08:30 – Malik Beasley’s Sketchy Rebounds Line Movement
1:15:30 – Fanatics Passes on Illinois Tax Hike (to You)
1:18:30 – SP’s “Bug” Speech
1:20:30 – Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Flaming Hot Sharp Betting Takes II & News We Got Wrong | Ep 109

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on:

Why executing an edge beats finding one
Embracing high-hold markets and "one-way" bets
The value of betting first, asking questions later
Why hating touts is no longer cool
Whether being a pro bettor is a legit data science career
Why going public with your gambling identity can pay off
And… how much money it would take for us to quit betting forever?

00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Hot Take: Execution > Finding Edges
12:00 – Hot Take: High Hold = High Opportunity
21:00 – Hot Take: Bet First, Ask Questions Later
32:00 – Hot Take: Hating Touts Isn’t Cool Anymore
40:00 – Hot Take: Pro Betting is Good Data Science Job
44:00 – Hot Take: Why Being Public Helps
58:00 – News Roundup (Poker Scandal, FanDuel, CA Ban)
01:16:00 – Q&A: Working with Mules
01:36:00 – Q&A: How Much to Quit Betting Forever?
01:43:00 – Q&A: Model Graveyard + Project Ideas
02:01:00 – Teaser: Bayesian Update of the Week

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Bet Like a Bayesian & SP's DraftKings Beef | Ep 108

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.

His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).

This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds!

Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon

0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro
10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting
51:23 News
1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick6
1:18:45 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

From the Yankees and Google to a Pro Gambler w/ Akash | Ep 107

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.

This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.

You can find Akash in the GP Discord under the name joshroyale

00:00 Show Intro
01:50 Yankees Front Office
11:05 Transition from Sports Analytics to Betting
23:30 Data Pipelines, Friction Reduction and Useful Features
39:45 AI vs. Pro Sports Bettor
49:50 Modeling Philosophy: Transparency vs. Black Boxes
1:11:35 Handling Downswings and Model Validation
1:17:00 News Roundup: IL Tax, FanDuel Ban, Polymarket x Twitter
1:30:50 Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Turn Your Projections into Probabilities (Distributions) & Poker Cheating Scandal | Ep 106

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?

The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!

This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.

0:00 Intro
3:50 Distributions
1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike
1:18:44 Poker Scandal
1:39:33 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Start Modeling Sports & Are OddsJam Customers -EV? | Ep 105

Wed, 28 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

DFS School for Sports Bettors & Every Winning Bettor is a Cheater? | Ep 104

Wed, 21 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa)

SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater.

Questions range from how did the hosts learn to model to if SPs DraftKings VIP vacation is real?

0:00 How to Win at DFS
41:50 Underdog/ ETR RTA 2.0
1:00:27 Wyoming says you're a cheater
1:08:27 Q&A
1:11:15 Big liquidity on exchanges means...?
1:22:00 How did we learn how to model sports?
1:39:54 Is market efficiency inevitable?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP Origin Story, Underdog Allows RTA & Why No Sponsors | Ep 103

Thu, 15 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

GP flies solo this week and takes the opportunity to ramble on about his journey from mediocre poker player to pretty good sports bettor. (This includes a quick double-up on the signing bonus he got in business school)

The news is dominated by the Real Time Assistance tool ETR released for Underdog best ball drafts. If you think that's the story - you're wrong. Because Underdog comes out and says they ALLOW this type of RTA in a move that blows the mind of anyone who's ever played online poker.

Q&A then goes into why GP doesn't plug GP Picks+ on the pod and some other odds and ends.

Remember - all things related to the podcast stem from the free discord at goldenpants.com

0:00 GP Origin Story
31:40 Key moments & lifestyle changes that lead to success
42:05 Underdog allows ETR's real-time assistance tool
1:04:00 Penn boardroom drama
1:09:00 What do you say you do for a living?
1:12:05 Why do you not plug GP Picks+?
1:26:40 How to find balance without set hours

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Day in the Life of a Pro Degen & Making $50k a Year Without Scaling | Ep 102

Thu, 08 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

This episode has it all. GP's childish morning routine, what music you should listen to while modeling, and some hot takes based on a cursory glance at the news.

The Q&A is dominated by a great question at the end regarding how achievable year-over-year profits are by someone who never models or scales a betting group.

Remember to join the discord (link below) if you want your question on a future episode. The discord is free and we answer almost every question - so hop and it participate in the show!

0:00 Day/ Week in Life of a Pro/Semi-Pro Bettor
39:39 AI beats Sean Perry, are we doomed?
48:07 Sweeps & prediction market update
1:09:00 Mass gaming wants to void Russia
1:18:35 Biggest leak of good bettors?
1:31:15 How to calc a middle?
1:37:37 Will Fliff pay & bet more to increase limits?
1:45:00 Can you make long-term money w/o model or betting group?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Account Longevity Band-Aids & Long-Term Solutions + McPeek's McPicks | Ep 101

Thu, 01 May 2025 05:00:00 -0400

"How can I make my accounts last longer?"

This is the question de jour - and in this episode, we discuss both answers to this question AND if this is even the right question to be asking...

We also spend a lot of time discussing Caesers stiffing Josk McPeek $800k. This leads to interesting discussions on "when is a bet a bet", kiosk jamming, slow cashouts, and more.

Then some great Q&A that tries to get us to stir the pot. Did we take the bait?

0:00 Intro
3:18 Account Limits & Increasing Longevity
35:15 Caesars $800k Stiff
1:12:30 Kalshi Taking State Gaming Scalps
1:16:50 Why did Sanders fall in the draft?
1:21:35 What is a good partnership split?
1:27:23 Is GP coming back to Twitter?
1:31:50 Outlook on betting & surprises looking back
1:50:42 Overrated and underrated sports bettors

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

100th Episode Special! Sports Betting Content Breakdown & Mega Q&A | Ep 100

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Very special 100th episode where GP and SP reflect on the current sports betting ecosystem, the goal of the podcast and the best way to incorporate sports betting content into your process.

News includes a game-changing CFTC chair nomination, debate over a void at ProphetX, and the SAFE act keeps marching us towards our eventual doom.

To cap it off - the longest Q&A in podcast history. We took all the questions this week in honor of the 100th episode. If you want to join the discord and ask questions next week - join for free at goldenpants.com

0:00 Intro
2:33 Lessons from GPs content evolution
17:40 How to best consume gambling content
39:11 News
1:03:05 Longest listener Q&A of all-time

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Heated Backtesting Debate & Gambling GOAT Wins $60M in Texas Lotto | Ep 99

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

0:00 Intro
1:20 Backtesting - All you need to know
40:08 News
1:09:00 Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Betting Big Events feat. The Masters & Why SGPs are an RG Solution? | Ep 98

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

0:00 Intro
3:00 Betting Big Events
56:38 News
1:20:32 Listener Q&A
1:44:10 Masters Locks (after the Masters started)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Edge Graveyard #1 w/ MetroPassMike + Squeezing Every Penny Out of an Account | Ep 97

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

Today we have a very special episode. The first "edge graveyard" where we bring on a guest, talk about their betting strategies - and most importantly all share some of our favorite dead edges.

Today's guest is Mike, aka @MetroPassMike on Twitter. He's a very sharp bettor who was able to squeeze a quarter million dollars out of his PERSONAL LIMITED REC ACCOUNTS in 2024. Crazy stuff - tune in!

0:00 Intro
2:40 Who really IS MetroPassMike?
9:40 Leaking edges - is it good, and what constitutes a "leaked edge"?
17:00 How does Mike organize his betting w/ his job?
22:10 How to poke around sportsbooks like a pro
33:00 THE EDGE GRAVEYARD
1:02:30 Getting max value from a betting account
1:10:45 How to find others to work with in betting
1:18:38 Mike's hot take on sweeps + prediction markets
1:27:25 Listener Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Be Confident in an Edge & GP Outs Guy Who Stole $50k From Him | Ep 96

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 05:00:00 -0400

0:00 Intro
1:30 How to Determine Confidence in Edges
38:12 Robinhood under fire & sweeps updates
55:36 Florida regulator "hit & runs" Prizepicks & Underdog
1:06:48 What to do when exchanges show huge liquidity?
1:16:41 Should there be minimum bet requirements? (No)
1:26:30 Making life easier for P2s
1:40:10 What to do when you get stiffed?
1:52:45 How to increase your skills through learning/ networking?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Don't Bet at Exchanges Like You do at DraftKings & Future of Pushup Bets | Ep 95

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 08:00:00 -0400

0:00 Intro
3:00 What are exchanges and how do they work?
28:34 Strategies for Profiting at Exchanges
49:15 Robinhood Sports Betting
55:36 Novelty Markets on Sweeps
1:10:38 John Oliver on Sports Betting
1:31:00 Q&A: Account Priming
1:55:20 Q&A: PPH
2:06:38 Q&A: Best time spent/ money made ratio and future episode topics

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Keep Going When Hit With Sportsbook Limits and a ROUGH News Week for the Industry | Ep 94

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 05:00:00 -0400

0:00 Intro
2:49 How to go from top down to bottom up betting
48:13 SAFE Act
1:01:38 Catastrophic week for Sweepstakes
1:13:17 Hardrock somehow not biggest sportsbook in Florida
1:18:44 DK to enter prediction markets
1:24:21 Should I be a bookmaker?
1:29:27 What to do with limited accounts?
1:43:15 Is peer-to-peer betting a good next step after getting hit with limits?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Adverse Selection Scares the Sh*t Out of Us and a Gambling Therapy Session | Ep 93

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 05:00:00 -0500

0:00 Intro
2:25 Adverse Selection Deep Dive
40:35 Betting News
1:14:35 How to Tell your Friends & Family You are a Pro Degen
1:27:11 Live EV Betting v. Live Arbing
1:34:25 Dealing with Downswings
1:52:37 Why GP NO MORE PICKS?!?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Flaming Hot Sharp Betting Takes, Day in the Betting Life & Why Exchanges are Scary | Ep 92

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 08:00:00 -0500

0:00 Intro
2:25 Kelly is flat out wrong
11:50 Odds screens are useless
19:00 Account priming is astrology for dudes
31:55 You need to be technical to be a great originator
39:00 Buy more picks, subscribe to more discords
45:50 Sharp books - not as sharp as we think?
52:40 Hot takes that missed the cut
59:00 NASCAR Parimutuel
1:20:40 Sweeps update/ WPT Gold
1:28:20 How to get betting to fit into your life
1:36:30 Logistics on betting partnerships
1:42:25 Best ways to evaluate new sports/ markets
1:52:15 Exchanges - can you win top down?
1:57:35 Edge grow / diminish over a season?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Specialist v. Generalist, Putting Your $ to Work, and Can a "Dunce" Win Betting? | Ep 91

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 05:00:00 -0500

0:00 Intro
1:33 Is it more profitable to be a "Specialist" or "Generalist" in sports betting?
42:16 iGaming legal blows a bad thing for sports betting?
53:51 How can sports betting skills transfer to other ventures / life?
1:04:55 Should you bonus churn with a $200k bankroll?
1:14:50 When should you take your bankroll and invest it elsewhere?
1:32:26 Does 1-click bet burn your accounts?
1:44:25 How do you win at betting if you are a "dunce"?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Live Betting, Picking Markets, and Why Gamblers are Black Sheep | Ep 90

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 07:00:00 -0500

0:00 Intro
0:33 What Sports Betting Market Should YOU Attack?
26:45 Super Bowl Betting
29:00 Health of Industry
35:45 Sweeps Trouble
45:40 Listener Q &A
46:15 Live Betting Tips
57:45 Are Futures Worth it?
1:09:15 How to Betsize for Parlays
1:16:40 Automation v. Hand Adjustments - How to Balance
1:32:06 Will Perception of Sports Betting & Sports Bettors Get Less Negative?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

New Co-Host, Where Alpha Comes From & Prediction Markets in Sports Betting | Ep 89

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 21:00:00 -0500

Wow - very important and historic episode. My good friend SportsProjections joins the podcast as a permanent co-host and we start to actually have structure to our episodes.

Each week we will bring you the same educational deep-dives as always, but now we will be addressing any news that's relevant to someone looking to make money betting and answering audience Q&A.

If you want your questions on the show - join the discord at: https://www.goldenpants.com/

0:00 Intro
4:05 Education: Where Does Alpha Come From?
31:27 Current Events: Prediction Markets in Sports Betting?
53:00 Audience Q&A

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Small Sample Sizes DO Matter - Here's Why | Ep 88

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 06:00:00 -0500

You are losing but being told it's "just variance". Is that true? Is there anything you can do to prove or disprove that? And is there anything you can do to snap a losing streak?

All of your questions answered in this episode on how to interpret small samples of extreme results!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Big Mistakes to Avoid When Making a Sports Betting Model | Ep 87

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 06:00:00 -0500

Today is for the nerds! Let's talk about the pre-model checklist you need to avoid some of the biggest mistakes I have made in my sports betting career.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

So You Want to be a Part-Time Gambler? | Ep 86

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 06:00:00 -0500

Did my last episode make you think being a full-time bettor sucks? Then this episode may be for you!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

So You Want to be a Professional Gambler? | Ep 85

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 06:00:00 -0500

In this episode, John breaks down what it takes to be a professional gambler (and if it's even something you want to do)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Working with Others in Betting Part 3 (Accounting, Taxes, and Operational Support) | Ep 84

Thu, 02 Jan 2025 05:00:00 -0500

The last episode of my working with others in betting series. This focuses on how to find and work with people who can take key operational items off your plate. Very VERY important for scaling and getting yourself squared away come tax season.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Working with Others in Betting Part 2: (Building a Group) | Ep 83

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Today we break down how/why to team up with other bettors. Also - I am releasing my full course for free on YouTube! Link here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiskTakersPodcast

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Working with Others in Betting Part 1: (Partners & Movers) | Ep 82

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 05:00:00 -0500

3-Part Series ALERT

I have been trying to put together a podcast sharing what I have learned from working with others in betting (betting partners, movers, syndicate betting).

It turned out trying to squeeze it into one episode wasn't working - so I broke it into three logical parts that represent steps of the journey from "lone wolf" bettor to Billy Walters wannabe.

Hope you enjoy - please subscribe and rate the podcast, it does help!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Where is your Money Coming From? | Ep. 81

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 05:00:00 -0500

For the best hourly in sports betting, start playing with GP Picks+ : https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Today I explain a question we all need to be asking ourselves everyday when it comes to betting.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Betting "Special" Events (Election / Paul v. Tyson) | Ep 80

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 05:00:00 -0500

A couple of spicy takes Trojan Horse an important lesson in choosing the right betting markets.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Billy Beane v. Bill James - Who do you want to be? | Ep 79

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 05:00:00 -0500

In this episode I discuss a few of the main characters from the Sabermetrics movement (and what we can learn from them to make money betting)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Biggest Mistakes are Made BEFORE You Bet | Ep 78

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 05:00:00 -0400

We are so BACK!!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The HIDDEN Psychology of Sports Betting w/ Joseph | Ep 74

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 15:00:00 -0400

Want to join the best sports betting discord server for FREE? Go here: https://discord.gg/goldenpants

For this podcast I'm joined by my friend Joseph to discuss betting goals, ethics of sports books, and why psychology is key to making money.

0:00 Intro
1:10 Joseph's Start
6:12 Keep Learning
10:42 Winning Makes You A Good Gambler
14:45 Different Gambling Goals
21:16 Psychology In Sportsbetting
28:33 Ethics of Sportsbooks
32:27 Finding Good Information
36:52 Beginner Betting Strategies
48:26 You Don't Need To Be A Genius
56:29 Not All Bonuses Are The Same
59:32 How To Not Look Sharp
1:09:10 Core Of Gambling
1:19:30 Human Aspect Of Betting
1:26:30 Outro

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Small Originator at a Crossroads | Ep 77

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:00:00 -0400

Someone in my discord asked me a question about whether it was worth it for them to work with a mover or not. When I looked at the proposed deal - it didn't seem like the mover was providing any value.

In this episode I share my thoughts on what makes a productive professional relationship in the betting space.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Price Movement v. Weighted Market Avg. & GP Picks+ Launch | Ep 76

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 11:00:00 -0400

Want to get the September promotion for GP Picks+? Check it out here: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

In this episode I talk about launching an automated bet feed - GP Picks+, and everything I learned about top down betting in the process. (Note - there is value for originators in learning top down)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

If They Are Offering, I Don't Want It | Ep 75

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 06:00:00 -0400

Learn why clicking the cashout button is similar to betting into a sharp book in this episode!

Big announcement - I have gone live with the most robust automated bet feed on the market in my discord.

If you want to save time, increase volume, and make money during the betting busy season - head over to https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks and check out what we have cooked up!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Hedging, Over Betting, and a Phil Ivey Story w/ Dr. Razz | Ep 73

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 06:00:00 -0400

Want to WIN sports betting? Go here: https://academy.goldenpants.com/

Want to START learning for free? Go here: https://discord.gg/goldenpants

For this podcast I'm joined by Dan aka Doctor Razz, and we discuss hedging bets, overbetting possibly being good, and an epic Phil Ivey story.

Use Dan's code 'SG20' at checkout for GP Academy to support Dan and get 20% off your first month!

Dan on Twitter-
https://x.com/DoctorRazzWSOP

0:00 Intro
0:40 Dan's Start
11:55 Two Plus Two Was Great
13:09 The Switch to Sportsbetting
32:53 Hedging in Golf
39:48 Scaling Golf Bets
45:12 How He Got The Name, Dr. Razz
50:37 Gambling & Sportsbetting Content
55:18 Overbetting/Bankroll Management
1:07:47 Emotions in Gambling
1:11:26 Laddering Explained
1:20:22 Randomness in Sportsbetting
1:24:33 Advantages Poker Players Have in Sportsbetting
1:32:04 Game Selection/Phil Ivey Story
1:42:44 Realizing Your Edge
1:57:34 Poker Stories
2:01:18 Outro

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Bottom Up Betting Made Easy (Free GP Academy Class) | Ep 72

Fri, 05 Jul 2024 09:00:00 -0400

Want to WIN sports betting? Go here: https://academy.goldenpants.com/

Want to START learning for free? Go here: https://discord.gg/goldenpants

Check out this free GP Academy class on one of the most requested topics - "Bottom-up betting". This is a taste for what we are offering within the Academy. If you want to learn how to implement these strategies with practical code and database walkthroughs - sign up today: https://academy.goldenpants.com/

2:40 Why?
13:15 Scouting The Market
22:10 Building
25:10 Craft A Hypothesis
27:40 Find Your Sources
31:50 Gather The Data
33:30 Build The Database
37:00 Build The Model
38:55 Maintain The Model
40:10 Execute
43:00 Summary
44:35 QnA

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The 5 Income Streams of a Modern Sports Bettor | Ep 71

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 07:00:00 -0400

Want to WIN sports betting? Go here: https://academy.goldenpants.com/
Want to START learning for free? Go here: https://discord.gg/goldenpants

Today I break down the five different income streams that I have under the broader category of "Sports Betting"

Timestamps:
0:01 Intro
2:01 Bonuses
6:56 Top-down Betting
12:22 Bottom-up Betting
16:38 Partner w/ Sharps
18:28 Soft PVP

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Poker, Emotions, and Why You May Need to Get Stolen From w/ Sheets | Ep 70

Wed, 19 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0400

** Want to beat a game they say can't be beaten? Learn sports betting at GP Academy: https://academy.goldenpants.com/ **

I'm joined by Eric Haber aka Sheets and we dive into a collection of topics including his time in poker, emotions when gambling, and a great Chris Moneymaker story.

Sheets on Twitter:
https://x.com/sheetspwns?lang=en

Learn from Sheets:
https://truedfs.com/

Timestamps:
0:08 Intro
2:36 Sheets' Time in Poker
15:48 DFS Start
18:42 Scaling in Gambling
24:02 Emotions in Gambling
32:20 Getting Action
35:53 Getting Stiffed Story/Chris Moneymaker
42:51 Content in Sports Betting
54:01 Outro

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Live Arbitrage, "Sweepstake" sportsbooks and is GRP Sharp? w/ SportsBetsGuy | Ep. 69

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 19:00:00 -0400

** Want to learn how to bet on sports profitably? 14-day free trial for my sports betting education discord: https://academy.goldenpants.com/ **

Tips on live arbitrage betting along with diving into the sweepstakes model gaining traction as of late. Today I am joined by Brock aka SportsBetsGuy on Twitter. He talks about adjusting to live arbing from the changing landscape, the sweepstakes model, and how it is affecting the rest of the sports betting world.

Brock on Twitter: https://x.com/SportsBetsGuy__

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
5:50 Why Arb Is Not Dead
8:55 WNBA Arb Advantages
16:40 Originating vs Arbs
22:50 Business Models of Different Sportsbooks
29:45 Gambling Laws
32:00 Sweeps Model
39:00 Problem With New Sportsbooks/Sweeps Model
41:20 Books Late Adjustments
47:35 Using Obscure Betting Features
53:40 Is GRP Sharp? (YES)
1:10:55 Biggest Bad Beat Story
1:20:20 Total Size of Sports Betting
1:26:35 Which Rec Would You Want Playing Against You?
1:30:40 Outro

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Choose the Game you Play | Ep. 68

Thu, 09 May 2024 14:00:00 -0400

I was a good poker player, but after years of playing professionally I had essentially $0 to show for my skill.

This episode explains how I left a mediocre poker career behind and found success in sports betting.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

What the Sportsbook SEES when you BET w/ BigBuckHunter | Ep 67

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 07:00:00 -0400

*** Want to learn how to bet on sports profitably? 14-day free trial for my sports betting education discord: https://academy.goldenpants.com/ ***

YOU SEE A SPORTSBOOK'S trading software in this episode! Today I am joined by Henry from NoVig aka BigBuckHunter on twitter. He talks about market making, how to conceptualize risk as an operator, and walks us through NoVig's trading software at the end. Unprecedented episode - must watch.

Henry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BigBuckHunterrr

NoVig: https://www.novig.us/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Broke to Bezos in Pro Gambling w/ Chinamaniac | Ep 66

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 09:00:00 -0400

Poker-pro Mark aka "Chinamaniac" gives the most comprehensive breakdown of what it takes to be a professional gambler today.

I always tell you to follow my guests on Twitter - but I implore you to follow Mark because he writes the most useful long-form content on Twitter (think Mr. Liiiimited)

Mark's Twitter: https://twitter.com/chinamaniac

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Emergency March Madness / PGA Special Episode w/ Ben Rasa | Ep 64

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 09:00:00 -0400

Like everyone, I very quickly need to learn about college basketball. We host a special episode where I have Ben Rasa explain March Madness to me in golf terms. (Along with a in-depth discussion into golf betting - our shared interest)

Ben's Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OddsShopper
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JazzrazDFS/with_replies
Stokastic: https://www.stokastic.com/ (Ben's betting software)

Intro: (0:00)
Ben's Background: (1:45)
Long Discussion on Golf Betting: (6:00)
Twitter/ +EV Betting crowd: (32:00)
March Madness: (37:00)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Pulling Back the Curtain on Sportsbooks & VIP Programs w/ Dillon Borgida | Ep 63

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 05:00:00 -0400

Dillon is a rare industry insider who speaks openly about what goes on at an online sportsbook - invaluable information in this episode for bettors and aspiring industry employees!

Follow Dillon on X: https://twitter.com/dillonborg3

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

P2 Deep Dive, Why You Should WANT to Get Stolen From + more Q&A | Ep 62

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:00:00 -0500

We are back with a Twitter Q&A! If you are interested in the GP Academy as mentioned - here is the link: https://academy.goldenpants.com/

It comes with a 14 day free trial - hope to see you in there!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Plug into the Player Prop Market w/ Drew Morgan | Ep 61

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

I am pumped to welcome back my good friend DMProps to the show. We get to check in on how Drew is doing, take a deep dive into NBA player prop markets, and EVEN make some Masters picks. Check it out!

Follow Drew on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DMProps

Join Drew's Discord: https://whop.com/tce/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Why the NFL Market ISN'T as Efficient as You Think w/ Sharp Clarke | Ep 60

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 07:00:00 -0500

Today we are joined by NFL Originator and overall great guy - Sharp Clarke.

Clarke gives us some tips on how to get started originating, shares with us why the NFL market isn't as efficient as we think, and at the end shares an edge with the listeners who make it that far.

Follow Sharp Clarke on twitter: https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFL
Check out his website: https://sharpclarke.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Making the Sportsbooks Pay w/ Spanky | Ep 59

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Spanky needs no introduction.

He is one of the top professional sports bettors in the world. Founder of SpankOdds, BetBash, and the Sports Betting Hall of fame. His podcast, Be Better Bettors, inspired this very podcast.

This is the most excited I have been to host a guest - and Spanky delivers. You will leave this a "Better Bettor".

Follow Spanky on Twitter: https://twitter.com/spanky
Sign up for BetBash: https://betbash.co/
Check out Spankodds: https://spankodds.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Accounts Can Be TOO Healthy | Ep 58

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

I can't believe I am saying this....

But yes, you can overfocus on account health. In this episode I dissect when you should be laying the cover and when you should be taking the money.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Future of Sports Betting w/ Alex Kane | Ep 57

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Today we are joined by Alex Kane, founder and CEO of Sporttrade.

Alex is at the forefront of bringing betting exchanges to the United States. We talk about letting winning bettors play, challenging DraftKings, FanDuel and the other big players, and why Sporttrade is as much a mission as a business venture to Alex.

Follow Alex on Twitter: @a_kane47

Check out Sporttrade for yourself: https://getsporttrade.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Sports Betting Lessons From the Blackjack Felt | Ep 56

Tue, 06 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

In this episode, GP13 draws inspiration from his brief stint at the blackjack tables. The strategies used by top blackjack players to find good games are highly applicable to sports bettors looking for markets to bet.

The newsletter is back with a vengeance this week - DO NOT MISS THIS ONE:
https://newsletter.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Scaling, Good Data v. Good Modeling, and Why Math People Don't Trust Math w/ Sports Projections | Ep 55

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 05:00:00 -0500

SP meets GP in the most jam-packed episode ever! Together, we dissect the intricacies of trading time for money within the gambling sphere, emphasizing the necessity of scalable skills over the fleeting tactics that may offer immediate gains but lack sustainable growth.

Follow Sports Projections on Twitter: https://twitter.com/sports__proj

Read Articles from Sports Projections: https://sports-projections.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Someone Who Wins a Different Way than You IS A GOLDMINE | Ep 54

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Our gut instinct when we see someone making more money than us is to explain away their success.

Don't do this. If they are making more money than you, they are better at at least one aspect of betting. Learn from them!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Not Get BANNED from Sportsbooks w/ Mr. Liiiimited | Ep 53

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 05:00:00 -0500

We are joined by the resident expert in Account Health - Mr. Liiiimited.

We talk about:

How to avoid falling out of favor w/ sportsbooks
Originating 101
Why a basic understanding of stats is a CHEAT CODE
Winning $150k in the DraftKings NFL contest
And much more!

Follow Mr. Liiiimited on twitter: https://twitter.com/MrLiimited

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Looking Stupid Sometimes is +EV | Ep 52

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 15:00:00 -0500

This episode is a rally cry to bettors: break from the pack, embrace profitable, albeit unpopular strategies, and remember that success often means standing alone.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Bottoms Up ft. GP13 (Originating 101) | Ep 51

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 13:00:00 -0500

I break bottom-up betting down w/ a focus on the two different types: Modeling and Angles

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Combining Math and Common Sense for Uncommon Profit w/ JFar | Ep 50

Thu, 04 Jan 2024 05:00:00 -0500

Episode 50! And this episode DELIVERS on the milestone.

We talk JFar taking on all of gambling Twitter (and being right?), the $40k bet no one knew about, and why people need to understand humans to truly "get" the math of sports betting.

Follow JFar on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JFar2Nice

Join JFar's Discord: https://whop.com/beat-the-books/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Live Arb While Taking a Bath w/ SportsBetsGuy | Ep 49

Thu, 28 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Prepare to unlock the secrets of live arbitrage betting as we sit down with Brock from Odds Pulse, aka SportBetsGuy on Twitter.

Step into the murky waters of live arbitrage, where the predator-prey dynamic between bettors and sportsbooks is as thrilling as the sports themselves.

Give Brock a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SportBetsGuy

Check out OddsPulse: https://oddspulse.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

"+EV Betting" is a Dangerous Term... | Ep 48

Tue, 26 Dec 2023 08:00:00 -0500

"+EV Betting" is a popular term that can hinder you as a bettor if you don't understand it. This episode explores how EV differs from spot to spot - and how creating frameworks for that difference can lead to big profits.

Please subscribe to the new TRTP YouTube Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQMTxtsE3ymQdqM7usZHRAg

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Best Betting Tools, Figuring out "Why", and Bet-sizing Hacks w/ MetroMike | Ep 47

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 15:00:00 -0500

Chillest guy in sports betting, MetroMike, walks us through his process start to finish. There is tons of actionable advice in this episode - and we even talk about golf!

Follow Mike on Twitter: @MetroPassMike

Join Mike's Discord: https://whop.com/swt/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

When You Should Bet (Easiest way to Increase Hourly) | Ep 46

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

We delve into the crucial role timing plays in sports betting. As we dissect the two pivotal approaches—originating and market-based—you'll learn why savvy handicappers pay close attention to betting limits and market information as game time approaches.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Man Who BROKE DFS Pick'em (interview w/ PickEm Expert) | Ep 45

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

The undisputed champ of DFS Pick'em correlation joins us. If this episode doesn't fire you up to go hunt for some edges, then I don't know what will!

Please Follow Pick'em Expert on X: @PickEmExpert

Also, if you are looking to sign up for Pick'em Expert's product, below is the link (use the code GOLDENPANTS for 30% off)
https://www.pickemexpert.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Learning 7-Figure Life Skills While Gambling | Ep 44

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

In this episode, we delve into the contrarian mindset and how it can benefit various aspects of our lives. Discover the value of taking an unpopular stance and training your brain to embrace discomfort.

Also check out the Risk Takers Podcast on YouTube!!
https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiskTakersPodcast

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

ROI Doesn't Matter? | Ep 43

Sat, 09 Dec 2023 09:00:00 -0500

ROI is out as a metric for measuring success in sports betting. Tune in to find out what I like better!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Build a 7-figure Gambler | Ep 42

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 05:00:00 -0500

In this episode, I talk about the traits I would give someone to turn them into a 7-figure sports bettor!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Bet Sizing Guide for an Optimized Life | Ep 41

Sat, 02 Dec 2023 09:00:00 -0500

Get set to discover the subtle balance between formulas and human behavior for successful bankroll management.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Hunting for Edges w/ Dylan Garber | Ep 40

Thu, 30 Nov 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Ever wonder how a college junior manages to beat Vegas for over six-figures? Listen to this episode w/ Dylan Garber.

We discuss:
- The importance of sports knowledge
- Manually doing "cross platform analysis"
- Specialization v. multi-sport focus

And more!

Get your notepad out and follow Dylan at: @dylan_garber

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Q&A: Death of Correlation, Quitting Your Job, Account Health & More! | Ep 39

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

First ever Risk Takers Podcast Q&A!

Thanks everyone for the questions - will do another of these in a couple of months.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Treat Your Sports Betting Like a Business | Ep 38

Sat, 25 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Are you ready to transform your sports betting game? Tune in as we unpack the concept of treating your sports betting like a business, inspired by a game-changing book I read during my online poker days, "Treat Your Poker Like a Business" by Dusty Schmidt.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The 5 BEST Ways to Make Money Betting Right Now | Ep 37

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Five best ways to make money betting that you can learn within a month.

Ranked 5-1...and #1 will BLOW your mind (jk it's easy to guess)

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

When an Edge Dies | Ep 36

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 21:00:00 -0500

Frustrated with the decision of Underdog to limit correlation and its impact on your betting strategy? This episode is for you and anyone else who has seen one of their edges get nerfed.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The 6 Things You MUST Know About Your Market | Ep 34

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

In this episode, we analyze the impacts of public tout services, book limits, and the most influential betters in your market.

This information is MUST know for extracting max value from your market.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Find Better Bettors | Ep 33

Sat, 11 Nov 2023 09:00:00 -0500

First Saturday episode - plan for these is to be a little more casual and focus more on off the table / mental game stuff.

This episode spawned from a conversation I recently had w/ my betting partner on learning from those higher up the ladder from us.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Hunting for Edges w/ Dylan Garber | Ep 40

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Ever wondered how a college kid can beat Vegas in sports betting? Tune into my interview with Dylan Garber.

Dylan opens up about the nuances of leveraging sports knowledge along with "cross-platform analysis" to create edges that last.

Grab your notepad for this one and make sure to follow Dylan on twitter at: @dylan_garber

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Turning $100 into $100,000 at 19 w/ HalosPicks | Ep 32

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Today I have on HalosPicks, a good friend and amazing bettor. Halo has been crushing the DFS Pick'em apps while balancing life as a full time college student.

He recently cracked the $100k mark on the year - and breaks down how he got there from his initial $100 deposit onto Sleeper.

Follow Halo at @HalosPicks on twitter!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Who is the Sharpest Book? | Ep 31

Tue, 07 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0500

Ever wondered why some betters lean towards one bookmaker over another or how to identify the sharpest book? In this episode, we shed light on the role of market-making books and the importance of analyzing the flow of information behind the scenes.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The 3 Levels of Sharp Bonus Play | Ep 30

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Bonuses are part of every sharp sports bettors arsenal. They way you utilize them changes as you grow your bankroll and your skillset.

This episodes hits on important bonus topics like traveling for deposit bonuses, thinking about promos in terms of hourly, and VIP programs.

Enjoy!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

"Be the One Other People Want to Tail" w/ Shiesty Picks | Ep 29

Wed, 01 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0400

This week we are joined by Jason aka "Shiesty Picks" - and it's an amazing episode

Shiesty walks us through his betting origin story, how to balance full time job w/ betting, breaking free of the optimizer dependence and more!

Follow Shiesty on twitter at: @shiestypicks23
Join Shiesty's discord at: shorturl.at/apKZ2

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Choo-choo! (Intro to Steam Chasing) | Ep 28

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode we cover:

Why steam chasing is really a fancy form of tailing
How understanding steam chasing can improve other styles of betting
Potential pitfalls of steam chasing
And much more!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Talking to Models (in Sports Betting) | Ep 27

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Today I try to give you a 20-minute primer on how to not epically screw up your model

I discuss getting crushed by sharp books, where I think you should plan your first attack on the sports book, and of course...me pumping Billy Walter's tires more.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Mamba Mentality w/ Drew Morgan | Ep 26

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Today we talk with DFS Pick'em crusher Drew Morgan about his journey from $500 to $90,000+ profit in under a year betting.

This is a must-listen for anyone who wants to learn what it takes to become a consistent winner.

Follow Drew on Twitter: @dmprops

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

5 Signs You Are About to Take the Sportsbook's Money | Ep 25

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Building on my conversation yesterday with Ed Miller, I highlight five indicators that a bet might be a weak spot for a sportsbook

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Finding the Sportsbook's Weak Spot w/ Ed Miller | Ep 24

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

The first interview of The Risk Takers Podcast is a big one!

Today I sit down with gambling legend Ed Miller to talk sports betting, DFS, Poker and his new book "Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting"

Please Buy Ed's Book at the link below - it's at least $100,000 underpriced...
https://www.amazon.com/Interception-Secrets-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B0CKS8GGX4

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Problem with +EV Betting | Ep 23

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

+EV betting has taken over social media - but do people actually know what it is they are doing?

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Only Way to Get Rich Sports Betting | Episode 22

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Today l discuss the significance of a bankroll, and the power it holds in providing exponential returns. By the end of this conversation, you'll appreciate why sports betting has an edge over poker when it comes to quick scaling and higher returns, and why splurging on big wins can be a strategic blunder.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Redefining Success in Sports Betting | Episode 21

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Who is the best sports bettor in the world? How do we define success in sports betting? Why do I sports bet?

These are the questions that I try to answer in this episode.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

7 Uncomfortable Truths of Sports Betting | Ep 20

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Seven TOUGH truths about sports betting. Make sure you go through the list before committing to the grind.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

"I have no clue how much we should bet" | Ep 19

Tue, 03 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode we try to answer the question, "How tf much should I be betting in this spot?"

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Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

What's My Edge Again? | Ep 18

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Have you ever questioned your ability to win gambling during an extended losing period?

If so, this episode is for you. In this episode I discuss how to divorce your skill from the results and determine if you are making winning bets.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Do You Actually WANT to Win? | Ep 17

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

On this episode, we take a deeper look at the following tweet that I posted last week:

"It’s hard to be a losing bettor when you pretend the following:

Pretend someone has a gun to your head and says you have to make $10k+ this year sports betting

Price shopping, promos and arbs suddenly become more attractive

Punting on your gut feelings gets scarier

Use this"

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Build a Winning Bet | Ep 16

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

This episode we break down the different ways you can arrive at a winning sports bet - if you aren't doing all four you are probably leaving money on the table!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

1 Simple Concept That Made Us $100k in a Weekend | Ep 15

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 09:00:00 -0400

This episode breaks down the biggest weakness of the DFS pick'em sites...and how to exploit it

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Think Like a Sportsbook | Ep 14

Thu, 14 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Ever wonder why a sportsbook is holding tight on a line, even when the bets are flooding in from one side? This episode challenges you to step into the sportsbook's shoes and discover the strategic game that occurs off the field.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Every "Capper" is Doing THIS Wrong | Ep 13

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode we dive into the number one way DFS sites use our psychology to turbo charge their profits - and how to counter it

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

BIG Money in Big Markets | Ep 12

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 08:00:00 -0400

In honor of the NFL kicking off today - we are taking a dive into how we should handle big betting markets

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This Simple Concept Made us $100k in a Weekend | Episode 15

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

This episode highlights the most important weakness of the DFS Pick'em sites...and how to exploit it

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The ONE Thing Sportsbooks Can't Stand | Ep 11

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0400

Ever struggle to determine if your sports betting results are based on luck or skill? Curious to know how sports books view you as a customer? This episode will break it all down.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Why your gut is making you POOR | Ep 10

Tue, 29 Aug 2023 17:00:00 -0400

Do you trust your gut instinct when it comes to gambling and risk-taking? Well, today we're going to pull the curtains back on this highly-requested topic and share our personal experiences and observations on the role of gut reactions in decision-making, especially in gambling, poker, and trading.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

My 6 Commandments on Betsizing for Promos | Ep 9

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 07:00:00 -0400

Unsure if you are taking too much risk on promos? This episode will lay out some simple rules that will give you confidence the next time you type your bet size in on a juicy promotional offer.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

NEVER go broke gambling | Ep 8

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0400

"When a gambler loses their money, they lose their tools." In this episode, we discuss the keys to never going broke gambling.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Embracing Losses and Managing Emotions | Ep 7

Fri, 18 Aug 2023 22:00:00 -0400

What if I told you the key to winning big was becoming good at losing? Sounds odd, right? Join us on this episode of Risk Takers, where we explore why the greatest winners in gambling are paradoxically the biggest losers. Unveiling my personal framework, I lay bare how to manage losses effectively, without them obstructing your path to making money.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

How to Get Paid $2,025 by the DFS Pick'em sites | Ep 6

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 12:00:00 -0400

We examine the lowest risk path you can take when taking advantage of all the free money flowing through the DFS Pick'em space right now.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Make Money Gambling Without "Being the Best" | Ep 5

Sat, 12 Aug 2023 09:00:00 -0400

Why being the "best gambler" is ultimately irrelevant - get the money instead!

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The 5 Best Ways to Lose All Your Money Gambling | Ep 4

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 09:00:00 -0400

Let's lose all our money! In this episode we hope to reverse engineer good betting habits by figuring out how to light money on fire as fast as possible in gambling.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

3 Advantages Small Bettors Have | Ep 3

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 09:00:00 -0400

"It takes money to make money" still holds true in sports betting, but in this episode we explore some advantages the small bettor has over their larger counterpart.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

4 random habits all great gamblers have | Ep 2

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 08:00:00 -0400

Today we take a look inward at some common personal traits that the most consistent professional gamblers have.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The Only Equation You NEED to Know to Profit Sports Betting | Ep 1

Tue, 08 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0400

In the inaugural episode of The Risk Takers Podcast, host GoldenPants13 breaks down the golden equation of sports betting, helps you decide what areas of your sports betting you need to focus on, and gives you a few pieces of low hanging fruit you can start with.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013