We have the NATO-Russia-Ukraine situation, including the possibility of the “release” in a Russian Bio-Weapons Lab, of the PNEUMONIC PLAGUE!

Latvia and Lithuania, also under attack!

Within the context of a new “Hybrid War” unleashed on NATO countries, including both Germany and France, along with Poland, all to test NATO’s resolve and unity, as Putin wants Riga, in Latvia, a major Baltic Sea shipping port.

In the core of the EU, we see Germany with a widening political divide, while France faces a fiscal implosion.

In Asia you have Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia all facing down the manifest destiny of Chairman XI. In the meantime, the Middle East situation is a MESS, ala the ongoing and expanding WAR, supply-chain disruptions, Iran, the Houthis, and high-rising Oil prices.

In the US – it’s ICE, DSA, Public Debt, soaring Bond yields and Mortgage Rates, polarized politics, final demand growth risk, a choking Consumer, and AI’s NARROWING upside price leadership, while the rest of the stock market WOBBLES and the Russell-2000 is on the verge of breaking the six-year uptrend.

Bottom line, since DJT took office Global Central Banks are tightening policy, inflation rages on, Putin is at War, NATO is in disarray, China controls global trade (and still, no deal on REE’s/REOs), and an upcoming election that is likely to provide the catalyst for even MORE INTENSE socio-political conflict in the US.

Indeed, all that and yet global stock markets have not felt the impact...but it’s COMING, as the volatility is SPREADING and INTENSIFYING as the critical US elections lurk on the horizon, holding the potential to completely BLOW OUT the socio-political scene in the US.

Indeed...CHAOS has arrived, and protection is the name of the game, as it relates to participating in the markets over the next ninety-days!

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In August of 2008 when Jerome Powell assumed the "Chair" of the US Federal Reserve Bank the FOMC published eleven "White Papers", over 300 words, hundreds of formulas, theories, historical, testing. I read every single word, within which the Powell-Fed laid out their "New Policy Paradigm".

The new Policy Paradigm in 2018 was a pledge to LIFT inflation to a level ABOVE 2%, after years of sub-par rates.

Thus the "two step", as Kevin Warsh dances away from that policy to his own new policy paradigm, or at least a Policy PLEDGE...to bring inflation DOWN to BELOW 2%.

We have come full circle.

The PROBLEM with Warsh's speech, long on words, short on meaning or definitions, lies within the White House, because raising rates is NOT helpful to Bessent's task of bringing Bond yields down.

You CAN NOT HAVE BOTH...not without losing ALL credibility and likely losing the Bond market and US Dollar at the same time.

But "they" may want BOTH, and when Trump tells Warsh to "get smart", it makes me think of Maxwell Smart, the bumbling spy (Bessent), working for the clueless "Chief" (DJT), with the sharp and cerebral sidekick "Agent 99" (Warsh)...being in CAHOOTS.

If that does turn out to be the case, be short the US Dollar, long Gold, long Energy, long Agricultural Commodities, long Strategic Metals.

Indeed, the XLE Energy Sector ETF is now THE UPSIDE LEADER in the US stock market, after violating a two-decade long downtrend line, relative to the S+P 500.

The new paradigm for investors...buying STUFF "over" PAPER IOUs!

Get the details on ALL these things, in Season Four, Episode #8...of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. 

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Bad beats come in Poker and in the Markets, but it is only about the MATH and the probabilities RULE over time.

Markets have taken a bad beat from the constant all-in bluff shoves from DJT...but the end is near, Trump has folded after Iran and Oman sort out a deal on the Strait of Hormuz that does NOT involve the US, and thus the FOCUS of the markets will RETURN to the macro-data, which offers much more clarity, than has this debacle of a "war".

Yes, the focus is back to playing the high probability outcomes, and Friday's Labor market data changes the game. I have been saying since LAST YEAR that the Labor market was HOLLOWING OUT, DEFLATING from within, and it would FORCE the Fed to choose between fighting still rising inflation or protecting consumer final demand growth. Bessent gave us the best clue as to what the choice will be when, out of FEAR about a Bond market crisis, he chose to use US taxpayer money to bail out the Japanese Yen.

As I have also said since last year, STAGFLATION is the REAL force in the economy and would force the Fed to acquiesce to higher inflation rates, to save the consumer, so that we can continue to finance our $40 trillion in Public Debt without generating a debt deflation event.

As such the USDX is increasingly at risk...and Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium and the Chinese Renminbi are in the process of breaking out and resuming their long-term SECULAR BULL MARKETS, with new record highs in sight over the next 12-24 months.

Get my SPECIFIC recommendations as per the positions to start accumulating now, in today's episode of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing.” 

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The talking heads in the pop-media covering both the financial markets and political scene are CELEBRATING an (alleged) victory in the Iran War with the signing of the MOU and talking about Gasoline prices collapsing back to $2 a gallon.

Politicians and market pundits are suggesting that the upside acceleration in Gasoline prices is DEAD…thus, the upside acceleration in US CPI/PCE/PPI inflation is also… DEAD.

Yes, on social media and in the pop-financial and political rah-rah TV…the song rings out…Ding Dong the Witch is Dead!

The Witch…being Iran’s sponsored terror…Iran’s nuclear program…and, thus…US inflation…ALL DEAD, right?

Yeah, not so fast! The Strait is NOT free-and-clear, Iran just got 60 days to prolong the Uranium supply negotiations, the agreement states that the MOU could be extended INDEFINITLEY…and…the terms have already been VIOLATED. 

And EVEN if the War is OVER, and the Strait OPENED, the fundamental supply-demand situation in both Crude Oil and Gasoline REMAINS BULLISH…and is most likely to STAY that way through the summer and into the November US election period.

Thus, as I stated previously, a decline in prices down to $65-$75 in WTI Crude Oil…and the $2.40-$2.60 level in Gasoline, would be viewed as a BUYING opportunity, particularly with LOW Open Interest in both contracts, removing the threat of a prolonged and deep price decline predicted by a massive liquidation of long positions.

Moreover, the US PPI data offered EYE-POPPING levels of pipeline inflation in most sectors, particularly, again, SERVICES. This just days after the CPI data revealed ANOTHER upside acceleration in…Service CPI inflation!

You NEED to HEAR these numbers! The Inflation Witch is not only NOT DEAD…she is STRONGER THAN EVER!

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In today's podcast, Greg tackles the GLOBE, from Europe to the US to Asia, to show how stagflation is intensifying amid a further tightening in global monetary conditions, and an appreciation in the US Dollar, as Central Banks are lining up to hike official short-term interest rates, and credit conditions are becoming dangerously "tight". Against this backdrop sustained high US price inflation in services, and a fractured labor market has pushed Consumer Confidence to new all-time lows, while Retail Sales growth is dominated by rising Sales (AKA prices) at Gasoline Stations, while spending at Eating and Drinking Establishments and Vehicle Sales are DISINFLATING at an alarming pace.

Yes, CAPEX spending on AI data center build-outs is skyrocketing and output of Semiconductors-Computer Peripheral Equipment SOARS, the FACT is that these three things account for only 16% of GDP, while Consumer Spending and the Service sector still accounts for 71% of GDP. The disconnect between Consumer final demand disinflation, and new all-time high in US stock indexes has NEVER been greater. Moreover, the current long-term momentum driving the US stock market higher is as stretched and extended as it has EVER BEEN. Throw in the fact that Gold is now breaking down versus nearly every paper currency on the planet...

...and the stage is all but set for an all-out "asset price deflation event"!

This IS..."The Great Divide; the Stock Market vs the Economy”

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Stagflation Reigns!

Six days of horrifically WEAK macro-economic data in the US, particularly in the Labor Market report from the BLS, and ISM Service Sector Survey, in tandem with a new and broadening upside acceleration in CPI price inflation, offers HARD EVIDENCE that price inflation will be a dagger in the back of Consumer final demand growth, which will lead to a cocooning consumer and deflation in consumption...

and...to a LOWER US DOLLAR.

This in turn means Gold and Silver are likely "back in play", and the coming El Nino would team up with a depreciating US currency, to send Agricultural Commodities higher, while posing a deflation risk to the equity market!

Get the "gory data details" in The Six Day War; Stagflation Reigns!

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The US FOMC is playing the ole Shell Game with this past week's "SEP"!

Where is the Pea? (AKA US Consumer Final Demand Growth)

Shell One:  Inflation NO HIGHER than 3% this year, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028.

Shell Two:  Nominal GDP Growth of +5.2% in 2027.

Shell Three:  NO Change in Unemployment Rate 4.4%, same in 2027 and 2028 (but maybe on tick higher to 4.5%), either way reflects virtually NO impact from AI.

Wild Card:  Fed envisions a top-end Fed Funds Rate of FOUR PERCENT (3.9%) next year, based on growth in “real” GDP to 3% or higher!

There is NO PEA to be found…The Fed’s narrative is overly optimistic, an expert misdirection, yes. But one that flirts with the realm of being a “con”!

Either way…the Fed only wants, and needs, you to believe that the PEA IS THERE to be FOUND!

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Last year was a HIGHLY profitable year for us...in my CTA performance, the results from following the recommendations in the Global-Macro Strategy Report, my market research business...and in terms of the advice I offered YOU, right here, in my podcast.

But in this business the ONLY question is...what is next? What are you going to do for me now?

Indeed, I have answers, and start 2026 with a top-down, big-picture macro-economic, global FX-Debt, currency-commodity overview, in today's episode (S4 E2) "The Two-Penny Dollar", within which I show you how today's "dollar" buys ONLY TWO-CENTS worth of goods-services, relative to the purchasing power of $1.00 in 1973...and how $58 trillion in Household-and-Public Debt...and...a renewed rise in inflation...is a MAJOR headwind going forward, as per US consumer final demand. Further, the implosion in the Japanese Government Bond market, and secular long-term bullish breakout in the Chinese Renminbi, all combine to put the USD on its heels.

What is next? A secular decline in the US Dollar, and the resultant impact on Stocks, Bonds and Commodities, globally.

I discuss and offer details as to...what is coming next, thanks to "The Two-Penny Dollar".

AND I offer the 145 Chart Pack that offers a visual, to my words, FREE. You are going to WANT TO SEE THIS, and EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THIS!

Email me directly to request it:   gregweldon@weldononline.com 

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The premiere episode for season FOUR of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing” is a MUST LISTEN!

Greg notes FIVE KEY "tipping points" that have ALL pushed past their "stabilization angle". The tipping points are now TIPPED!

The Age of Polarization is continuing to intensify, and 2025 is just a PREVIEW of what's to come in 2026. Today, Greg shares his insights and vision as to what the future holds, as he has personally experienced this macro-market-monetary evolution for the last four decades! 

And remember to follow the Podcast on Instagram, NOT Instacart, as Greg mistakenly calls it in a funny mis-speak, type in the title of the podcast to find it or simply use the link below, also on X @money_podcast, and follow Greg personally @WeldonLIVE. All of our updated links are available below.

And to get Greg's just published 145 page Special Report, full of easy to read (and really "cool") charts that offer details on US Debt-Deficits, the US Consumer, the Housing market, Employment, Inflation, Stagflation, Fed Policy, the USD...and the Metals-Mining markets, with their superior performance this year, as was presciently "called" by Greg, email him directly at gregweldon@weldononline.com 

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The world's most important EVER, highest stakes EVER, poker match is set to take place this coming week, between China's Xi and Trump from the US. These two shrewd operators, sharks both, have been playing back at one another for weeks, months in fact, and recently the stakes went up.

Trump, holding a strong hand defined by Chips-AI-Quantum-Tech bet big earlier this month, splashing the threat of 150% tariffs onto the felt, "floating" the hand, on a bluff...(since he understands the US does NOT hold the best hand).

Xi responded by pushing "all-in" with the October 9th release of “Announcement No. 61/2025: Decision in Implementing Export Controls on Foreign Related Rare Earth Items, Rare-Earth-Related Technologies, Lithium Batteries and Artificial Graphite Anode Material Related Items".

Poker is a game of "I know that you know, that I know, that you know, that I know AND you know I'm bluffing, but you know that I know you can't "call". Trump tried to pull off a bluff, and Xi "came-over-the-top" and raised "all in". The question is, how will Trump respond?

Understanding just HOW IMPORTANT these elements, oxides, metals, and even manufactured products are, is to understand HOW FAR BEHIND the US truly is, and how DOMINANT China has become, with a four-decade long game plan that has left the US "reliant", held "hostage”...to China on Rare Earths! We are waiting to hear what Xi wants...and you know, that I know, that you know, EXACTLY what Xi wants.

It is NOT Chips-AI build out, NO! 

Xi wants Taiwan, which has ALL of the above, already in place, thanks to the US.

What happens next week will be historic, one way or the other. A deal that placates the US...or Xi sticking with the "long game", and leaving Export Restrictions in place, possibly driving US equity indexes sharply lower, helping lift unemployment, at a time when social unrest, outright violence, and politicians "declaring independence from the Federal Government”, has created total chaos, domestically. We are already at war with ourselves, divided from within, while also battling drug cartels, Venezuela, Colombia, and Chinese interests in Peru!! Are we really prepared to, or even willing to, "fight" China right now?

Xi's Maoist vision of Asian "manifest destiny", groomed by the CCP since 1959, for THIS MOMENT, his father was killed during an assassination attempt on Chairman Mao...and...the demise of the US currency...both... could be in sight, lying in wait, and the repercussions for global markets would be Earth-shaking.

Learn EXACTLY why I say this, all the gory details, history, data, stats and FACTS as to why this is SO important, and what the possible outcomes might be, by listening to the most important podcast I have produced to date 

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In my view, Jay Powell has become "a problem", though NOT because he’s a bad guy with evil intent. I do not believe that. In fact, he seems like a genuinely “nice guy”!

BUT, having said that, he IS an “egghead, an overthinking, theoretical, no action, no skin in the game, no blood-no foul, ACADEMIC.

Jerome Powell is a monetary PURIST and thus, beyond Employment and Inflation…NOTHING ELSE MATTERS!

The Consumer Cocoon…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.

The Credit Crunch and Delinquency Epidemic…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.

The DEFLATION in “real” Retail final demand…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.

The Housing Crisis…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.

The Economy, DEFLATION in the Service sector in particular…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.

Well, guess what, there IS ALREADY a RECESSION underway in ALL the above!

But it matters NOT, because the ECONOMY and the CONSUMER…matter NOT…not to eggheaded monetary purists like Jerome Powell, who FAIL when it comes to having vision, having the “stones” to be AHEAD of the curve!

Powell has MISSED EVERY “TURN” in his entire tenure as the Fed Chair, sorry, that is the SIMPLE FACT!

His Fed has been BEHIND THE MONETARY CURVE at every key turning point!

And he is MISSING it again, WAY behind the curve this time, and for just ONE reason, in his mind there are not enough LAYOFFS yet to tilt the scales towards getting to a NEUTRAL POLICY as quickly as feasible. He believes this even though there are ample signs that layoffs are EXACTLY what is coming next.

Worse yet, from the political side, the Fed actually REVISED their Labor market projections to reflect STRENGTHENING job gains over the NEXT TWO YEARS, offering a vision that includes NO MORE RATE CUTS AT ALL!

For sure, several “dots” reflected that exact projection, and Powell went so far as to SAY SO, during his press-conference (I discuss within the podcast).

And, at the end of the day, with the onerous Public and Household Debt, $55 trillion in total, INFLATION is here to stay, as “reflating” is the only way to maintain growth, which is necessary to facilitate the SERVICING of debt, now “priced” at over $1 trillion per year in Public Debt interest expense alone!

The time for academic solutions, the time for eggheads to spend hours discussing the nuances of nothingness…are far behind us.

The Fed has “lost it", and Jay Powell is “flipping off” every hardworking American, and more so, those who CAN'T FIND WORK!

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In today's podcast Greg rewinds to review his January 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook, his major macro-market trading/investment "themes":

-- Consumer Cocoon/Credit Crunch

-- Fed Acquiescing to Higher Rates of Inflation

-- Yield Curve Steepening

-- US Dollar Depreciation and Geo-Political Realignment

-- Rotation of Wall Street Money into Precious Metals Mining Shares

Indeed, as of September 5th these themes have been DOMINANT as per their influence on the global markets, particularly when it comes to the stellar outperformance by Gold & Silver Mining Shares/ETFs.

Greg takes a look at how his top picks in the Mining sector have performed over the last fifty-two weeks, most with TRIPLE-DIGIT rates-of-return!!!

Hopefully listeners and followers took full advantage of Greg's keen and prescient insights, instincts, and investment recommendations!!! 

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In this episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg puts forth a new macro-thematic thought process as a way to answer what has become THE MOST asked question of the year…"why now, why after decades of worry, does the US Public Debt MATTER???"

The answer is simply physics, and a study of "stabilization" and "rotational angles", and the physics behind how a seesaw "works".

Just like Greg's "Debt Black Hole" analogy...the "see-saw", Pete Seger's "Teaspoons of Sand" theory, and the dynamics linked to mass, weight, and angles...to suggest that see-saw has FLIPPED, away from GDP growth, Income growth, Discretionary Spending growth...and the see-saw is now weighed-down by TRILLIONS of spoonful's of sand, which now FAR "outweighs" the economy's capacity to produce growth, without relying on even MORE DEBT.

The Fed remains behind-the-monetary-policy-curve, and the Mortgage REITS, Property Developer's shares, the Dow Transportation Average, and Consumer Discretionary sectors got WHACKED last week, as the Fed is facing a Housing market CRISIS, Deflation in the Labor market, a Consumer Credit contraction, and NOW HIGHER INFLATION thanks to Trump's tariffs.

The Consumer has reached the tipping point.

The Mortgage market has reached the tipping point.

The Housing market has reached the tipping point.

The Labor market has reached the tipping point.

And without the Fed, the Stock-Bond Ratio stands directly in HARM'S WAY, at its most over-valued level EVER, by a factor of more than 2:1, beyond the high in 2000, the high in 2007, and the high in 2018, all of which preceded a MAJOR decline in equity indexes.

Yes, the Stock market has also reached...a tipping point...particularly when stock indexes are compared to Bonds and/or Gold.

What to do???

Start by listening to today's episode, and for Greg's recent US Macro-Market Special Focus, 47 pages of mega-cool charts and thoughts...email Greg directly at gregweldon@weldononline.com 

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The current macro-economic “narrative” is as follows:

1.      The Consumer remains "strong", with a "healthy" Balance Sheet

2.      The Labor Market remains "solid." 

In today's podcast I use FACTS, data and simple mathematics to COMPLETELY blow up that narrative and debunk the greatest macro-economic myth out there right now, that the Consumer remains in a "strong" position, with a "healthy" balance sheet, and that the Labor market remains "solid". 

The macro-economic data is SOLID, in suggesting the complete OPPOSITE is true, that the Consumer is CHOKING, their Balance Sheet imploding, and a Consumer Cocoon and Credit Crunch is now well underway, more so as the Labor market gets a whiff of outright DEFLATION in the June Employment Situation Report for June. Throw in the New York Federal Reserve Bank's June Consumer Survey, revealing that Consumers fully expect that "real" (inflation-adjusted) Wage-Earnings-Income will DEFLATE by anywhere from (-) 0.7% to as much as (-) 2.1%, depending on Income Level, with those Earning $50,000 per year or less getting CRUSHED!!! 

As for the Labor market, if not for a +329,000 increase in the Number of People NOT in the Labor Force (AKA dropouts) the Unemployment Rate would have RISEN, as 8 of 19 industries tracked by the BLS posted OUTRIGHT JOB LOSSES, the most in four years ... while Average Weekly Earnings DEFLATED in June, as 14 of 19 industries reported LESS Hours Worked, with the Aggregate Hours Index, used by economists as a proxy for GDP, posted a (-) 3.6% annualized contraction!!!

And, Revolving Credit has been DEFLATING on a monthly, and year-year basis, something seen only two other times in US History, in 2008-09 global financial crisis, and the 2020 global health crisis ... thanks in part to a RARE DECLINE in PCE Personal Income, which fell (-) $125 billion in June, leading to an across-the-board decline in Spending!!!

Strong??? Yeah, NOT

Healthy??? Yeah, NOT 

Weak??? Hell Yes!!!

ILL??? Hell Yes!!! 

So, what to do, investment wise??
I answer that by asking YOU, Got Metals??  Got Crypto??

If not, get some NOW!!! 

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As a tsunami of "supply" rolls towards the shores of the US Treasury market ... it’s hard to envision how US Bond yields don't rise further unless, or more realistically until, the Fed takes action, taking the 30-Year T- Bond above 5% and calling into question the underlying "credibility" of the US Bond market.

Indeed, the top-down secular fundamentals for both the US Treasury market and the value of the US currency is DECIDELY BEARISH, as it pertains to the Debt Black Hole the US has entered.

Oddly enough, Greg has noted a "tight" and intensifying positive correlation between the yield on the US 30-Year T-Bond and the price of Bitcoin.

In fact, the ONLY time BTC (spot futures) has been above $100,000 has correlated with a move in the US 30-Year T-Bond yield above 5%.

Moreover, BTC is breaking out on a long-term trend basis versus the 30-Year T-Bond (price) and has reached a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH versus the Treasury market AND the US stock market, on a Ratio Spread basis.

ONLY Gold is holding firm WITH Bitcoin...precisely as Greg has been highlighting for months.

Find out WHY Greg asks the question, Is Bitcoin the "new" T-Bond, and is Gold the new "US Dollar"?

And find out WHY Greg believes the simple "math" is MORE than the Bond market can handle and could be THE "cause" that drives the Fed into acquiescing to higher inflation, to protect growth and the Bond market. 

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At the risk of aging myself, I vividly remember Mad Magazine as a kid, and the goofy, enigmatic, care-free character Alfred E. Neuman.

Alfred was famous for being care-free with the buzz phrase..."What, Me Worry?"

As the Trade War intensifies, I ask, who is "worried" out there?

Well Donald Trump is hoping China is worried. The Donald is hoping that Fed Chair Powell is worried.

But both of these individuals are giving us their BEST "Alfred E. Neuman" imitation.

What? Me, Worry?

Powell can "wait", he is NOT worried.

Xi Jinping can "wait", as he just secured a $400 billion trade surplus windfall, thanks to a pre-tariff BOOM in Exports. There is NO inflation in China. Retail Sales are growing at a near +6% year-year rate. Industrial Production is surging, the Labor market has stabilized, the stock market is NOT plunging like it is in the US, leaving only the deflated Property market (and maybe the Banks) as a potential source of worry.

Bottom line, Xi is NOT "worried".

Trump has tried to bully both Xi and Powell...but neither are worried, and neither has flinched (nor is likely to anytime soon).

The ONLY people who are WORRIED right now...US Consumers, and US Equity market bulls.

This has been bearish for the USD and Stock Indexes...and wildly bullish for Gold and Canadian Gold Mining shares, JUST LIKE I'VE SAID IT WOULD BE since January, and more specifically in the last several episodes of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. 

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Stagflation, Supermassive Debt Black Holes, Consumer Cocoons, FOMC Policy, Trump Tariffs, the Financial pop-media, the Stock Market, US Dollar and Gold...Greg "talks" all these topics in this recent interview, hosted by an industry legend, the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, Peter Grandich, one-time agent and money manager to some of New York's most iconic professional athletes, now retired.

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A multitude of macro-monetary storm fronts are converging on the US Dollar and are coming from a variety of directions, putting the US currency on the defensive, and opening the door for a technically significant violation of the multi-year bull market trend.

Indeed, the US Dollar is on the verge of executing a major long-term, secular-trend-reversal to the downside, one that would (will) carry serious, game-changing consequences for ALL major markets, particularly as Germany and France move towards fiscal loosening, debt expansion, and money printing to pay for increased defense spending, driving the EUR sharply higher, and as Eastern European currencies soar on hopes for an end to the Russo-Ukraine War.

Throw in a US consumer who remains in the chokehold of inflation and is ready to "tap out", as Tariff Wars pushes inflation expectations dramatically higher, AND mix-in a mini-meltdown in asset prices linked to Semiconductor sector and Crypto...and BAM, the Perfect Storm is forming!

In today’s episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing, "The Perfect Storm". I will share with you where you might seek "cover" from the storm!

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In this episode Greg discusses:

The two biggest macro-economic dislocations in US history, as the main secular "themes" for 2025 (and beyond).

The micro-details in the form of the simple mathematics that clearly illustrate and define those two macro-dislocations.

And the markets...what to do! Two specific strategies that anyone can deploy within the stock market to help protect the purchasing power of your money, income and wealth.

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Among several macro-themes I pushed during last January's 2024 Outlook, I note three that are intertwined with the US Consumer:

One) US Consumer cocoon would “harden” amid deflation in “real” Retail Sales.

Two) Consumers would RELY on Credit Cards to “make ends meet,” thus Delinquencies would soar under intensifying financial pressure, thanks to dangerously LOW savings and ZERO “real” wage growth.

Three) A consumer credit crunch would evolve.

BAM, we entered the final phase, so to speak, as the Fed's Consumer Credit data this week revealed a RARE monthly decline in Revolving Credit, which was inevitable, and an “event” I’ve been “anticipating” ALL YEAR!

Throw in some “hawkish” commentary drawn from the FOMC December Meeting Minutes, a stunning mis-read of the ISM Service Sector Survey results, horrific Retail Sales data, and a less-than-met-the-eye Employment Report…not to mention the second largest monthly Import total EVER and resultant BLOW OUT Trade Deficit, at a time when Tariff threats escalate...

...and my “call” for 2025 becomes crystal clear >>> the US has “crossed over” the “Macro-Event Horizon Line” and we are now captive to the inescapable gravitational pull of a Debt Black Hole. This means STAGFLATION and ultimately, more money printing/QE. AKA "monetary debasement in the purchasing power of paper currencies, wealth and income.

In that vein, the bull market in US equity indexes stands directly "in harm's way", as I stated in my most recent podcast (S3 - Ep2). Indeed, this past Friday the market CRACKED.

I discuss ALL of this, in today's podcast.

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By deciding to cut their Fed Funds Policy Rate this past week, amid a renewed rise in CPI price indexes is a clear sign that the FOMC is "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation.

Subsequently the US Dollar has broken out to the upside in a big way, which in turn is weighing on US Stock Indexes, Gold along with the entire Metals complex, and even Bitcoin.

What's next for the US economy, the Federal Reserve, the Dollar, and US asset prices?

Greg lays out his outlook, in today's episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing.

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In Episode One of Season Three of Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg Weldon defines the new "D.E.I." for the next four years in the US under Donald Trump.

The new D.E.I. is...

...DEBT

...EASY-MONEY

...INFLATION 

Hear all about the NEW AGE "trends" and find out what Greg envisions for the markets over the next few months, in Season Three, Episode One, of Money, Markets & New Age Investing! 

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Vladimir Lenin once said...

 "The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."

While there is controversy as to whether it was in fact Lenin who said that, or the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who attributed that line to Lenin following an interview he conducted with the Russian leader...the fact is simple, the US Consumer is being CRUSHED, ground up between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

Here is what Keynes wrote, quoting Lenin...

"As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery."

We have bubbles all over, especially in Consumer Credit, and specifically Credit Card Debt. In fact, the total of US Credit Card Debt has risen ABOVE the level of Household Savings for the first time since 2008, while the Seriously Delinquent Rate rose to 10.83%, the highest since 2008.

With no savings and "real" wage growth that is less than one percent year-year, the Consumer is being ground up and crushed by the "millstone". The Fed WILL be FORCED to respond in the not-so-distant future, a dynamic that will meld into HUGE Trade and Budget Deficits, MASSIVE Government, Consumer and Household Debt, and the onset of the BRICs Unit to replace the USD as the means of "settling" global trade ... ALL point to a LOWER USD, which means HIGHER Commodity prices, and a STAGFLATION defined macro-economic environment ...

and...bullish breakouts in Silver and Bitcoin, in the wake of the push in Gold prices to new all-time highs.

Indeed, Vladimir would be bullish here, on Silver and BTC! Find out why in Season Two, Episode 12 of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing!" 

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The "Twin Towers" are gone, but never forgotten. Greg worked in Four WTC for several years, and in the adjacent World Financial Center as well, so it is with all humility and respect that he discusses the macro-economic version of the "Twin Towers", because they are back, standing taller than ever, and putting the US Dollar in harm's way. Greg speaks to the records being set within BOTH the US Federal Budget data, and the US Trade data, as the Twin Tower DEFICITS are a BIG problem, again.

Throw in a discussion of how the Fed is behind the "monetary curve", and how the stock market faces an "economic reality check", let alone detailing the RAPID evolution of a viable and wholly credible BRICs Unit as an alternative to the USD as the "currency" used to transact/facilitate global trade ...

... and the greenback is about to be exposed, as the "Emperor Has No Clothes".
So, what to do, investment wise, to protect yourself? 

Greg answers that question, in today's episode of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing". 

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It's Season Two, Episode Ten and Greg reviews the dramatic shift in the monetary policy narrative from the Federal Reserve this past week, away from "fighting inflation" to "protecting the economy", following yet another in a string of EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK economic data, culminating in a nightmarish Employment Situation Report on Friday from the BLS.

Greg dissects the data, not only in the US, but also in China, who published equally WEAK macro-economic in the last two weeks, as the two largest economies on the planet are suddenly in a downward race towards a "recession".

As such markets have reacted precisely as Greg has been expecting since the first week of July, and dating back to late-March/early-April when he stated that by the August-October period the market would suffer from an "economic reality check". Bonds prices SOARED, boosting his Podcast picks in the SHY Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF, the MBB Mortgage Bond ETF and the XLE Real-Estate ETF, all of which rallied last week in the face of a deep decline in the indexes.

The reality check Greg has expected became more of an epiphany, as the market is realizing what Greg talked about in Episode Nine in mid-July, that the Fed and other global Central Banks have fallen "behind the policy curve" and need to act more aggressively amid a DEFLATION in economic activity. Greg has discussed that deflation since May, highlighting the crash in Home Building, a vicious contraction in the Mortgage market, a plunge in Home Sales, a Consumer who is being choked by continued, sticky, price inflation, and now a Service Sector into a mini-melt-down, and a Labor market that has turned to the downside, with 1.3 million more people unemployed in July, versus July of last year.

What is next for the markets? Greg ponders that question too. 

And finally, Greg examines a pertinent lesson to be learned from a Market Wizard, as he continues his review of (his former colleague, and boss) Jack Schwager's must-read classic book, "Market Wizards". This week Greg "talks to" legendary Commodity-Currency trader Bruce Kovner of the famed "Caxton Corporation" (formerly a client of Greg's, to be fully transparent.) 

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In Episode 9, Greg introduces his new Three Podcast Special Series, "interviews" with a handful of the greatest money managers/traders of all-time, thanks to his colleague of many years, the legendary Jack Schwager, author of the must-read and top-ten all-time financial market book, "Market Wizards".

Yes, Greg has received permission from Jack to share excerpts from this classic book, an abundance of real world blood, sweat and tears lessons from the greatest of all time, several of whom Greg has worked with or for during his long-tenured career. Of course, Greg's color commentary is priceless unto itself, given his status as a tenacious trader and money manager with four decades of hands-on experience.

And there's more, as Greg shares his current macro-monetary view on the latest US economic data, Fed policy, key comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the volatile price action in US stock indexes at the end of the week...and...a preview of his new MASSIVE Special Report on the BRICS currency and its implications for the US Dollar, and most specifically, for Gold and Silver sector, replete with an overview of his top ranked bullish trends among the individual mining shares.

Listen for details on how to get a copy of this landmark report, at the end of today's Podcast. 

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There was a mind-numbing Presidential debate this week on national TV, but there is NO "debating" the facts:

Fact -- the US consumer is cocooning, cutting back discretionary spending amid a depletion of savings, maxed-out credit cards, and "real" wages that barely keep pace with (still high) inflation. "Real" (inflation adjusted, in dollar terms) Retail Sales have been NEGATIVE for five consecutive months, in 19 of the last 20 months, and in 24 of the last 27 months. That is a FACT.

Fact -- the US housing market is CRUMBLING, as New and Existing Home Sales PLUNGE and violate multi-decade uptrend lines as prices hit new record highs and mortgage rates remain high. Moreover, Sales crash while Starts, Permits and Completions all are plummeting and reaching recession-like levels, setting up the next great home price inflation when the Fed does eventually cut rates.

Fact -- excluding the 2Q of 2020 and $3.2 trillion in COVID relief, Joe Biden has created more debt than ANY other President, BY a factor of +50%, and he still has three more quarters to continue his policy of using taxpayer money to try and buy this election. Oh, and as of the end-1Q Public Debt hit another record high of $35.586 trillion, up by +$6.839 trillion since Biden took office.

Fact -- inflation remains HIGH, and is set to re-accelerate to the UPSIDE, after posting a Gasoline price decline induced unchanged reading for the month of May. Over half of the (16) major US cities still post a year-year CPI rate of +4%, or higher.

Greg discusses all of the above, and offers specific investment strategy thoughts on Energy, Crude Oil in particular, the high-flying Information-Technology shares, the Communication Services sector, the XLRE Real Estate ETF, and the Mortgage Backed Securities market, in today's Money, Markets & New Age Investing podcast.

And, for the charts mentioned within, or for any other information pertaining to the topics discussed in this podcast, please feel free to email directly sales@weldononline.com

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First, don't miss the offer of a FREE Chart Book that accompanies this Episode, with dozens of cool charts on Consumer Credit, Delinquencies, Household Finances, Inflation, Retail Sales, and, ALL the markets we are currently involved with, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Utilities along with the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Base Metals, Uranium, Natural Gas, Bitcoin, Ethereum and more!  Email us at sales@weldononline.com to request this FREE Chart Book.

 As for "Powell Taps Out", Greg notes that at the May FOMC meeting, as he did in March, Jerome Powell offered subtle yet significant "signals" that the Fed has no interest in raising rates again, and that eventually there will be rate cuts. But nuance speaks more loudly, as the Fed is increasingly signaling that they are willing to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation, and inflation expectations, as long as the labor market remains relatively "tight" and the Consumer continues to spend. 

 But the latter point is coming under attack, even as Powell's "downshift" in the policy narrative is causing ALL asset prices to appreciate, primarily because as US interest rates fall, again, the US-EU (German) Rate Spreads are narrowing, among others, meaning a lower premium is being paid to holders of Dollars, versus other currencies. A lower US Dollar is bullish for stocks, but in times of inflation a lower USD is MORE bullish for commodities, especially Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum) and commodities in short supply (Copper, Cocoa, Coffee, Wheat, Energy). Indeed, increasingly hard assets are outperforming paper assets, specifically over the last two weeks since our last podcast.

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The S+P 500 has risen by +50.8% since the October 2022 low.  The XLK S+P Information-Technology ETF has risen by +88.0% since the October 2022 low.   And since just last October the NASDAQ-100 Index has risen by +31.2% .

The last six-months of this massive bull move in US stocks has been driven by three themes: 

·       Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024 

·       AI and chip stocks 

·       The perception that the Consumer is "strong" 

Two of these themes have IMPLODED, and the other has run its near-term course, leaving the US stock market VERY VULNERABLE to profit-taking and an economic-reality-check sell-off. Get the inside scoop and prepare to take some "protective" and "defensive" moves. 

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Twenty-two global Central Banks held meetings this past week to decide what, if any, changes they would make to their monetary policy stance. More than one-third of those Central Banks (8) voted to CUT their official short-term Policy Rate, TWICE as many as voted to raise rates (4), while 10 of 22 left policy unchanged.

Of those Central Banks that left rates unchanged, the majority of them communicated belief that they would be cutting rates this summer or fall, as global monetary officialdom is starting to ease policy before inflation actually declines to their target rate, thereby "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation, via higher lows to be set in year over year inflation rates. 

Greg discusses all of this and then some, particularly as it relates to the US FOMC and how their move this week to prepare markets for EASING of "Quantitative Tightening" is the first step towards a full-blown policy reversal, which in turn is supporting asset prices, specifically stock indexes and commodity markets, like Energy. Listen to find out which specific markets to which Greg is allocating his client's money. 

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You have heard me warning about a coming crisis in US Commercial Real-Estate and how it would link to Small Banks, not only here in the US, but around the world. Moreover, I warned in December about Small Bank Balance Sheets, and cited that as the likely REASON WHY the Fed abandoned their hawkish rhetoric at the year-end meeting. 
 
You have heard me warning about a coming Consumer credit problem, particularly as it relates to out of control borrowing via Credit Cards, and how this would link to the global economy in a way that would force the "dovish" hands of Central Banks, particularly the US Fed. 

Please welcome to the stage that infamous pirate..."Captain Crunch", here to lead us into the next big macro-economic phase, a Credit Crunch and Consumer Cocoon, here in the US, in the UK and across much of Europe.

In today's episode Greg will detail the data, explain the dynamic, explore the possible macro-scenarios, and talk end-game as it relates to where specifically to invest your money (including Info-Tech, Healthcare, Uranium, Food Commodities and Bitcoin or Ethereum) in order to stay out of harm's way, and out of the reach of...Captain Crunch!

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In Episode #3 of Season Two Greg offers an in depth look at three countries which reflect the three primary and dominant macro-economic "backdrops" - Stagflation, Inflation and Deflation.

Each of these locations offer crystal clear evidence within the data and the market positioning and thus gives us clues as to how these scenarios may emerge in other countries, including the Anglo-nations (AKA USA, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia).

Subsequently we can use these three examples to provide a roadmap to aid in deploying risk capital, depending on which of the three primary macro-economic themes becomes dominant.

Greg also digs into the latest US macro-data, and more importantly offers his thoughts on investment "themes" for 2024, focusing on global equity markets, US industry-sectors, and commodities, including Gold, Uranium, and Ethereum-Bitcoin.

Moreover, if you wish to receive a FREE copy of Greg's "Gold Guru 2024 Year-Ahead Outlook Special" (as he offers at the end of today's episode) shoot us an email at "sales@weldononline.com" 

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What Does the FOMC Know, That the Markets Don't? 

Alternative Title: "Jerome Powell goes Mandelbaum on the Market!"
 
Indeed, Jerome Powell and the FOMC stunned markets last week as the US Central Bank did NOT verbally "protest" the uber-dovish Fed Funds Rates "priced into" the futures market for end-2024 (roughly 4.50%, down from 5.00% in October), but rather went DEEPER and MORE DOVISH, with projections that put the FF Policy Rate BELOW 4% by the end of next year. 

The Fed went "Mandelbaum" on the markets..."taking it up a notch", like the famed supporting character in the US sitcom "Seinfeld", an 80-year-old workout guru and Jerry's personal trainer Izzy Mandelbaum.

But WHY?
 

With inflation at 3% to 4%, the 5.5% FF Policy Rate is "sufficiently restrictive", and thus right where they want it to be. Moreover, inflation remains sticky in many staples and embedded in housing and services. So WHY the DRAMATIC and abrupt 180-degree about-face in monetary policy?
 

Does the Fed know something the markets don't?

Perhaps, The Fed is moving to protect something other than the economy...maybe there is an issue with credit conditions and the BANKS?

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What began as the smallest of dovish comments among a broad range of hawkish “Fedspeak” from Chairman Powell in his post-FOMC press conference earlier this month, became a rallying cry for many market participants wanting to celebrate their belief that Fed is positioning itself to REFILL the proverbial monetary "punch bowl“… 
 
 ...and...that the risk-on PARTY has started again, after eighteen months of inflation-induced sobriety. 
 
Already the forward short-term interest rate contracts in the EU, UK, and US, are "pricing-in" CUTS in Policy Rates next year. In the US there is now a chance, small as it may be, that the Fed will cut rates in March. Naturally, this is ludicrous. In fact, the Fed might view the market's thirst for the punch bowl to be refilled as RISK to their fight to tame inflation. The market itself could be the risk point that keeps the Fed tighter, longer, at least until the economy cracks wide open, the odds of which are rising dramatically given the recent macro-data deluge (CPI, Retail Sales, NY Fed). 
 
Plowing back into US equities may not be the optimum play here. The Fed IS likely done hiking, but the focus around the world is NOT on the Fed, as MANY global Central Banks are already cutting rates and easing monetary policy, many of them in Emerging Markets. In terms of investment there are several favorable markets, all are commodity and natural resource producer/exporters who have a trade relationship with China and a currency that has stabilized, and/or broken out to the upside versus the USD. 
 
So rather than be passive and indexed to the US stock market. I would rather focus on non-USD currencies, specific global Bond markets, Emerging market stock indexes, Commodities...and...the Real Estate sector! 

Indeed, I ask, could Real Estate be THE hottest "sector" in 2024? The answer could very well be a resounding YES! 
 
Listen to Episode One of Season Two to learn why I say all this, with the knowledge that ALL of the above alternatives to the US stock market are outperforming the US S+P 500 Index right now, and all of them stand to benefit if the Fed does in fact lighten the pressure on the monetary brakes, “Fedspeak” wise.

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I asked rhetorically in a research piece I wrote last week...is Jerome Powell a "con man"?
 
Of course the answer is a resounding NO. Jay Powell has talked the talk and then walked the walk. He has told us what he thinks, he has told us what he will do, and then he does it, ever since 2018 and the publication of eleven Fed White Papers defining the "new monetary paradigm", which proposed to let inflation rise to whatever level it wanted to without "tolerance bands", to rise high enough to lift the eight-year average rate  above 2%, and then if needed apply the Volcker playbook with draconian monetary tightening to bring inflation back down to their target. 

I say, "con man" not because Powell has tried to "play us". Rather, he has been fully transparent. But now that is kind of the problem, because he has NO "confidence" that the Fed has tightened policy to a degree where it IS "restrictive enough to finish the job". The word CONFIDENCE was used in a negative way repeatedly during Powell’s most recent post-FOMC meeting press conference. Thus, my play on words, and "con man". 

And rather than a dovish stance, he in fact clearly stated that IF the economy continued to grow at a rate above trend, it "could cause the Fed to tighten further". 
 
But what if the economy is already IN a recession...AND...inflation rises again?

And if "stagflation" becomes the dominant macro-trend, what action should investors take to protect their money and wealth?

I discuss this, and SO MUCH MORE, in today's episode of "Money, Markets, and New Age Investing.”

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Just as inflation has retreated and it at least appears that a soft landing is not such a far-fetched thought as we once might have believed, BAM, the "perfect storm" is unleashed on the markets in the Middle East, in what could become a worst-case-scenario. 

We start with China, where the PBOC has remains TIGHT even as the economic data erodes as is best evidenced by a multi-month decline in the year-year rate of change in both Export and Imports. The Chinese Central Bank has been reluctant to cut their Policy Rate even in light of six-months of ZERO inflation. It leaves one wondering if China, after a prolonged period of COVID-lockdowns, isn't using a restrictive policy to slow the economy on purpose, squelching growth in the country that has been THE engine of global growth for a decade. Is China purposefully trying to weaken Western economies? 

And in terms of the horrific situation unfolding in the Middle East, is there a chance China is the ultimate puppet master here, like they are behind the scenes in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine? 

Is this a coordinated effort driven by China, "out of" Iran, one that will bring ALL of Israel's enemies together as a means to draw the West into a messy war in the Middle East. And would this provide "cover", especially as the US enters what promises to be a CIRCUS in 2024, politically speaking, for China to make moves in the South China Sea.

What if...inflation rises again, amid continued move higher in Energy prices? 

And most importantly, what should one be doing with their Portfolios at this point, to maintain wealth appreciation while protecting against a Fed that is likely to remain restrictive for MONTHS to come. For sure Greg has already given you some fantastic ideas that have paid off nicely over the last couple of months, so make sure to check out his latest thoughts on this topic.

Indeed, Greg discusses ALL of the above, and then some, in Episode 15 of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. 

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Irresponsible money printing and out-of-control deficit spending, exacerbated by (ongoing) supply-demand fundamentals that are increasingly skewed towards supply side issues (AKA shortages relative to demand) leads to inflation (AKA more money chasing fewer goods). 

Inflation leads to a decline in the purchasing power of paper currencies (globally), which in turn leads to an overtly and unrelentingly hawkish monetary policy from Central Banks, in our case the Federal Reserve Bank. A "restrictive" monetary policy leads to rising Bond yields (which is now turning into a global Bond market mini-melt-down), an exponentially higher cost to carry debt or borrow money and a rising US Dollar (given the fact that US interest rates have, and are, rising faster than most any other G-20 country).

Higher interest rates AND an appreciation in the currency leads to...tightening monetary conditions...less willingness and ability to borrow or lend, by companies, households, and banks...raising of cash and selling of securities by banks...emerging market currencies plunging in value, many to new multi-year or all-time lows...a crack in Gold and other commodities aside from Energy...and (seemingly) suddenly the specter of a sell-off in stocks appears, causing equity indexes to shudder and shiver a little. 

One thing leads to another ... and ALL of this likely leads to a global recession. 

Have we seen this before?? Does this "look" and "feel" like...1987? 
Or maybe it sounds a little like 1990?
Or, perhaps it feels more like 2007-08?
Indeed, it sure seems like 1978-79? 

Greg Weldon has been a professional trader-advisor and research provider through ALL of those time frames, and he says it feels, looks like, and seems like ALL of those times, and then some. 

Find out why in "One Thing Leads to Another", as Greg takes you "back to the future" once again, to get a glimpse of what the future is most likely to bring. 

ALSO, make sure to sign up on YouTube /user/GregoryWeldon to get "In a Macro-Market Minute", a free, daily, sixty-second video covering the topic Du jour, to see ALL the charts and overlay comparisons Greg mentions in today's podcast.

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In this business one must put ego aside and be willing to be wrong, a lot. Success comes down to unearthing the facts, digging deep into the data-details, connecting the dots globally, and putting ALL the little pieces together to build a picture that reflects the FACTS as they relate to the current situation. 

From there we must be open minded to changes in the macro-monetary environment while conjuring up and contemplating ALL the possible scenarios the current FACTS might portend for the future. As I conjoin the puzzle pieces offered by the latest deluge of FACTS, we can easily envision a recession, one that I see heading straight at us here in the US, not to mention the global economy. 

 I construct the puzzle from scratch in today's podcast, AND, more importantly, offer my thoughts on what to do with these facts, strategically speaking (AKA the preferred optimum investment focus). From US Government handouts (Transfer Payments) to the impact on Food inflation from El Nino, from the crash in the US Mortgage market to the souring sentiment among US Consumers linked to their financial situation, from the upside breakout  in the share price of International Business Machines (IBM) to the intensifying erosion in the Labor market, from the bullish fundamental FACTS behind the rise in Crude Oil and Uranium prices down to how to best "play" those markets...Money, Markets & New Age Investing has YOU COVERED!

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Is it Mark William Calaway? … or Jerome Powell? … will the REAL "Undertaker" please stand up!

Indeed, the modern-day version of legendary WWF superstar and World Champion "The Undertaker" is none other than the current Chair of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell ... who continued his Steel Cage Death Match this past Friday while on tour in Jackson Hole. Powell has spent the last year wrestling with, grappling with, and battling the great "Inflation Genie", and ultimately only the victor will be allowed out of then cage to hoist the World Championship Belt. 

Jerome "The Undertaker" WANTS that Championship Belt BADLY!

Unfortunately, he is not seven feet tall weighing 310 pounds.

Moreover, just like in professional wrestling there are side characters who intervene to try and take out The Undertaker. You are already familiar with "The Base Effect", which is set to reverse into high gear as an upside influence on inflation data as Gasoline prices are now rising on a month-month basis, and are above prices seen last year. Further, there is a SURPRISE "guest" who shows up in today's coverage and threatens to unleash mayhem in the steel cage. Entering the cage please welcome "The Nuclear Reactor" .

And if that wasn't enough drama...another superstar from the past is set to make a return to the steel cage to blow EVERYONE away and leave the fans with mouths to the floor. Welcome back the legendary "Currency Crisis", who has been busy in 2023 touring the globe and leaving a lengthening list of Emerging Market currencies flat out on the mat, at record lows versus the USD. 

The action is now FAST and FURIOUS...with the financial health of the audience members hanging in the balance...it is..."The Undertaker" in the Steel Cage, body slamming the labor market, pile-driving credit conditions, paralyzing the mortgage market, crippling the consumer, hoping to suffocate asset price appreciation, and looking to break some bones in the US economy … all in his drive to PIN the "Inflation Genie", and retain the Championship Belt!

This match is going to be very interesting to watch. 

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The average Consumer in the US has been forced to borrow money just to pay the monthly bills, and while Consumers have exhaled a sigh-of-relief as inflation spiraled back "down" to 3%...little do they realize the WAR is not over. No, the war has only just begun, as the "base effect" in Energy, THE primary force that drove inflation lower, is done, finished, over, GONE! ...to be replaced next month by a sharp year-year INFLATION in Gasoline, which will could well drive the rate of CPI inflation back above 4%. 

Worse yet, the supply-demand fundamantals in Crude Oil and Gasoline are decidedly BULLISH for prices thru the end of the year, with Saudi output cuts resulting in fast-and-furious declines in inventories, resulting in the largest single week of US Crude Oil Imports in DECADES, this past week. The daily supply deficit is anywhere from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day, and without a sharp decline in consumption (not likely) prices will rise, and could soar, with Crude Oil above $100 per barrel, and Gasoline clearing $4 gallon. 

In the meantime, China's trade surplus hit $80 billion, and is tracking at greater than $1 trillion for the year, while at the same time they are hoarding supplies of Crude Oil, Copper, Wheat, and Soybeans, much of that sourced from Russia and Saudi Arabia. 

The US consumer, not to mention equity market investors are already "at war", as is the US, in a financial asset and natural resource WAR with the new Axis-of-Power, China-Russia-OPEC. For investors it is time to take action and have exposure to specific key commodities and currencies, as the task of keeping pace with the debasement of paper money is about to intensify.  Greg details some of the Energy linked ETFs that individual investors should consider, and offers a FREE special report on the entire sector, including the individual Petro-patch shares. 

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The infamous "line" from the Hollywood classic "Animal House", when freshman Delta pledge "Flounder" walks into a smokey room with frat brothers sitting around several poker tables and cluelessly asks … "Are you guys playing cards?" 

Today, Greg asks that question of the Fed … using the Fed meeting Minutes from the June Central Bank pow-wow as the likely answer, and then delves into the intricacies and nuance of high stakes poker, the kind of game global Central Banks are now "playing" in terms of when to "fold" their hawkish rate-hiking "hand". Indeed, an end to tightening campaigns AND a move back to CUTS in Policy Rates is a trend that is already emerging in Asia where inflation has COLLAPSED in several key countries. 

 Moreover, the US labor market data last Friday revealed forward "tells" that suggest the END is NEAR for employment growth … and this puts the US Dollar back "into play" … which in turn puts the Commodities, Bonds, and even the Stock market back on the table, in terms of owning non-dollar assets. This approach would also include having "long exposure" to Gold, the Mining Share ETFs, and, though Greg forgot to mention it, Bitcoin and Ethereum too. 

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In Episode #9, before Greg gets to the intensifying and already vicious El Nino that has become dominant in the Pacific Ocean...he discusses the Fed and monetary policy, the disinflation in the year over year rate of change in CPI inflation to just 4%, and the polarized price action in the US Dollar. 

Then Greg takes on the US Federal Budget numbers for May, and breaks down what this NIGHTMARE is really all about...enabling an insolvent, and debt addicted government, who must print ever more money on “our dime”, with US Public Debt set to reach $40 trillion by the end of the next fiscal year. Moreover, with another $240 billion deficit in May, four times last May’s shortfall and pumping out debt at a $2.9 trillion per year pace...the US Federal Government must “borrow” ONE BILLION DOLLARS AN HOUR, just to keep operating.

Greg examines the El Nino phenomenon in depth, noting how this is likely to spark another round of inflation, specifically in Food commodities, GLOBALLY, and the dramatic impact it is ALREADY having on the weather around the world...before finishing with a look at Turkey, as a prelude to what other countries, including the US, may “look like” in years to come, financially speaking.

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While all focus is on the “Debt Ceiling” buffoonery...the Retail Sales report revealed DEEP and DEEPENING contraction in Sales within nearly EVERY type of Discretionary sector-industry…particularly the heretofore resilient Building Material and Garden Supply stores.  At the same time the Fed continues to turn apathetic and complacent phrase when asked about the banking system, saying they EXPECT further tightening in “credit conditions”, and they continue to verbally “attack” the labor market.  How far will the Fed go to fight off thoughts, already priced into the markets, of Fed rate cuts by year end, a lower dollar, Gold above $2000 and stocks breaking out towards new highs??  How MUCH PAIN is Powell willing to inflict??  Is it possible he could bring the guillotine down on CREDIT GROWTH just as growth SOARS to newer-new record highs??  Is Powell willing to release the guillotine over the neck of the consumer, and thus the economy??  And if so, what should we as investors do about it??

All this and much more, in Episode #8 of “Money, Markets & New Age Investing”

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Ahead of the May 3rd meeting of the US Federal Reserve Bank's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) the debate is raging ... will and should the Fed hike their official short-term interest (policy) rate again, or not. 

 The year-year rate-of-change in the US Consumer Price Index has disinflated to "only" +5.0% amid a massive single-month decline posted for March as the Energy "Base Effect" started to impact the data. This is a phenomenon that becomes much more intense, and potentially disinflationary, over the next three months, with the potential to bring the PCE inflation rate down to a "three-handle" (AKA three-something percent on a year-year basis). 

 If that happens, and it will unless Gasoline prices SOAR in the next 6-8 weeks (certainly possible, but  not likely, even in the face of a deep year-year deficit in US inventories) ... then at the Fed's CURRENT Fed Funds Rate of 5% (top end of the range) monetary policy would  finally reach the Fed's objective, by becoming "restrictive". 

 Consider that the three most used words in the Fed's own Beige Book were "soft", "softer", and "softened" ... and ... that the CB noted that the US consumer is in retreat, demand is softening, and even the labor market is loosening. Within that context I must ask WHY??? WHY in The Charmin Soft Economy" does the Fed need to raise rates again, and risk causing a FURTHER tightening in "credit conditions", the VERY LAST thing the Fed, or anyone else, wants right now. 

There is A LOT going on, but there are ways to benefit from the market action, within the context of what is coming next. Greg discusses ALL of this, and then some, in Episode 007 of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing." 

 And make sure to take advantage of the offer for some free material at the end of this podcast. 

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Over the last fifty-two weeks Bitcoin has outperformed the US Stock market (S+P 500 Index) by +42.9%, while Ethereum has outperformed the S+P 500 by +27.2%, and Gold has outperformed by +17.0% despite a +4% appreciation in the US Dollar Index over the last year.

The FOMC’s about-face on Balance Sheet “shrinkage” (AKA QT) and expansion of $297 billion in a single week, THE LARGEST EVER (excluding three consecutive weeks at the height of the pandemic), has shaken markets … and is the final piece of a bigger picture dynamic that is BULLISH for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver … and even the Precious Metals Mining ETFs and individual shares. Greg walks through ALL the macro-math, the economic data, and dives deep into the price action in Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, Stocks and Commodities … not to mention Crypto.

Make sure to hit the last half of Episode Six for some detailed market dissection, key price levels, and information on how YOU can get a free PDF detailing the technical set up in BTC, EHTR, Gold, Silver and the top picks in the individual mining shares.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has summoned the ghost of Paul Volcker, circa 1978, with a monetary regime that is hell-bent on generating PAIN, economic pain, as a means to "defeating" inflation. Powell has pledged to use the Volcker "playbook", draconian rate hikes that squelches final demand to bring it into line with lower supply, even if it means sparking a recession. But it goes further, as Powell cannot justify pausing the monetary tightening until there is DISINFLATION in ASSET PRICES too! Pain in stocks, and a Gold price that is NOT threatening to bust through $2000 and reach record highs. 

But there's more … MUCH MORE … the ECB, European inflation, money supply deflation, and shrinkage in the demand for credit … not to mention one of the MOST VICIOUS debasements of the purchasing power of a currency we've seen in years, taking place in Turkey, with the deepest ever trade deficits, a CB that is cutting rates into a Lira depreciation, where it takes five times as many Lira to buy an ounce of Gold as it did in 2019, and Food inflation running at +70% year over year. A crisis in the making?
 
And then there's Pakistan, where the CB raised their Policy Rate by +300 bp on Friday, after the Rupee plunged to a new record low, following TAX HIKES and fiscal tightening by the government. A crisis in the making here too?

Greg discusses ALL of this, and the Crude Oil market too … because to him EVERYTHING matters. 

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Greg discusses the UNPRECEDENTED growth in debt during 2022, both public debt and private debt, with the understanding that reliance on printing exponentially more and more money, as a means of economic survival, is ultimately a losing hand. This is especially true when Global Debt holds an unbeatable hand, an Ace-High Royal Flush, suited in Diamonds (for the obvious irony) … 10 of Diamonds is Private Debt (Consumer, Corporate, Unfunded Pensions) … Jack of Diamonds is CB Balance Sheets … Queen of Diamonds, International USD Debt … the King of Diamonds is "Public" Debt (AKA Government Debt) … and the Ace of Diamonds is the INSANE amount of Derivatives carried by global Commercial and Central Banks, which now totals … well, you have to listen to get that shocking figure!!!!! NOW more than EVER, it is paramount that you protect the purchasing power of your wealth, as onerous debt levels will demand additional debasement of paper currencies, everywhere. 

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Wow, SO much to talk about in Episode #3. Greg starts with a discussion of US Household sentiment as it pertains to their current/future financial "situation", for better, or worse. Further, he looks back at inflation in 2022, linking it to depleted Household Savings, record consumer credit creation, and outright deflation in "real" wages-income, along with a massive "liquidity drain" in the monetary system and Bond markets, with the latter becoming unstable at times. Then he looks ahead to 2023 to note a broad range of intensifying risk factors, specifically as it applies to ever-more-acute RISK to all paper assets. And finally Greg continues to tackle the question, "what to do", as keeping pace with officialdom's perpetual debasement of the purchasing power of paper currencies becomes increasingly difficult. As such Greg opens the discussion to the world of Foreign Exchange, Agricultural Commodities, Metals, and Energy. 

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**Please excuse the sound quality, our new audio set up will be in place for Episode 3, thanks for your patience**

In Episode 2, Greg discusses this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee amid the expectation that the US Central Bank will raise their official policy rate, again.  Greg talks about inflation rates receding and what happens as the US Dollar begins to retreat, and Gold begins to rally.  Moreover, Greg gets more in-depth with the actual execution of a specific trading recommendation and how to approach the all-important risk management consideration.

And finally, Greg asks (and answers)... is Silver “dirt cheap” relative to the US stock market???

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You see it in the weather, extremes at both ends of the spectrum, record heat, record cold, record floods, record drought and for sure you see it in politics, the far right and far left are both increasingly loud and militant, there is little middle ground anymore.  I am talking about polarization...you see it in human behavior all over the place, on the road, in the stores, in your neighborhoods, and it is acutely and significantly impacting the economy and markets.  It is a NEW AGE and never before has it been more important to protect the purchasing power of your paper wealth.  In our premier episode Greg Weldon lays the groundwork for how he is going to help you do just that!

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Your introduction to the new podcast, launching this month...Money, Markets & New Age Investing with your host Greg Weldon.  We are excited to have you on this journey with us!

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