The Americas Quarterly Podcast

Javier Milei’s Ups and Downs

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:00:00 -0400

Until recently, things seemed to be going well for Argentina's President Javier Milei. In October, his party won the midterm elections in a contest many polls predicted would swing the other way. Since then, he passed an important labor reform, poverty fell to its lowest level since 2018, and the economy is expected to grow around 4 percent this year. Yet suddenly, a few warning signs began to flash. One poll showed a substantial drop in Milei's popularity. Another, by Poliarquía, recorded the sharpest single month drop in public optimism of his presidency to date. Today on the podcast: What's affecting Milei's numbers? What does the broader political landscape look like? And what does that mean for public sentiment around the Argentine economy? Our guest is Alejandro Catterberg, president and co-founder of Poliarquía Consultores.

Understanding Delcy Rodríguez

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 18:00:00 -0400

Nearly three months after the fall of Nicolás Maduro, Delcy Rodríguez is still standing as interim president of Venezuela. The broad feeling, at least for now, is that Rodríguez and the chavista regime are not going anywhere. Since she took office on January 5th, Rodríguez has signed an amnesty law, reformed the hydrocarbon law, and restored diplomatic relations with the U.S. for the first time since 2019. Yet she has done this while keeping most of the chavista regime entrenched in power. Diosdado Cabello remains her Interior Minister, her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, runs the National Assembly, and the new Defense Minister is the former head of Venezuela's feared intelligence service, accused of overseeing torture and human rights abuses. What do her actions ultimately mean for the future of Venezuela? Our guest is Juan Forero, Bureau Chief for South America at the Wall Street Journal.

Brazil, Colombia and a Regional Case for Optimism

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 16:00:00 -0400

After seven years covering Latin America for the Financial Times, and a previous post in the 1990s, Michael Stott is leaving the region as an optimist. His argument: that Latin America's strengths have been systematically underappreciated, and that in an increasingly dangerous and unstable world, what the region has going for it is about to matter more than it has in the past. In this episode, we take stock of the unique moment across the hemisphere: the tightening race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's October election, the fragmented right in Colombia and the outlook for their presidential election in May, the uncertain futures of Cuba and Venezuela, and how this White House is likely to continue influencing events in years to come. Our guest is Michael Stott, now the South Asia bureau chief for the Financial Times.

Cuba on the Brink

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 17:00:00 -0500

For 67 years, many people have been waiting for change in Cuba — and for 67 years, the communist regime has endured. It survived the fall of the Soviet Union, the death of Fidel Castro, economic sanctions, and political pressure from 13 different U.S. presidents. But the Trump Administration, fresh off its military operation in Venezuela, is now applying unprecedented economic pressure on the island, effectively cutting off its oil supply, and pushing basic services to the point of collapse. This follows years of a deepening crisis that has driven as much as a fifth of Cuba’s population to leave since 2020. Is this the moment when change might finally come to Cuba? Our guest is Patrick Oppmann, Havana bureau chief for CNN.

Rodrigo Paz’s Overhaul of Bolivia

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 15:00:00 -0500

When Rodrigo Paz was inaugurated in early November 2025, he vowed to implement “capitalism for all.” He inherited an economy in rough shape after 20 years of rule by the MAS party: Inflation was above 20%, foreign currency reserves were nearly exhausted, and fuel lines stretched for blocks. In many ways, Bolivia was also isolated in its relationships abroad, aligned more with Russia and Venezuela than with its South American neighbors or the United States. Now, almost 100 days into his new government, President Paz has had mixed success in pushing through early changes. So, what's next for Bolivia? And in a country with a long history of instability, what are the odds of Paz maintaining power and successfully getting his agenda passed?

Our guest is Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, a Bolivian strategic policy adviser. Gabriela has previously served as Senior Foreign Policy Adviser to the Vice-President of the European Parliament for Human Rights and Democracy, and as Director of Global Public Affairs for a network of think tanks.

A Defining Moment for Latin America

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 16:00:00 -0500

Latin America has been at the center of the world’s attention in 2026—and not only because of Venezuela. This week, we take a step back to understand the current moment and its implications for the region’s long-term outlook, from the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, to the future of USMCA, and upcoming elections in Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. What do recent events mean for Latin America’s political and economic future?

Our guest is Michael Reid, journalist, author and former Latin America editor for The Economist.

A Realistic Look at Venezuelan Oil

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 16:00:00 -0500

The fate of Venezuela hinges on the country’s once-proud energy sector. Since Maduro’s capture two weeks ago, questions about how the industry could be recovered have become critically important: What’s the real state of the Venezuelan oil industry today? Under what conditions might U.S. companies be able to deliver on the $100 billion in investment that President Trump says is needed? Can the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez deliver those conditions? Today on the podcast, we take a realistic look at what political and economic steps are necessary for the Venezuelan oil industry to begin its long recovery. Our guest is Luis Pacheco, a nonresident fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and former president of the ad hoc PDVSA board.

After Maduro: Risks in Venezuela and Beyond

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 09:00:00 -0500

The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela was one of the most dramatic developments in U.S.-Latin America relations in more than 30 years. In Venezuela, a country that has suffered for more than a decade from repression, economic depression and an exodus of more than 8 million people, it opened the door for change. Yet, days after the arrest, the Chavista government is still in charge, led by Maduro’s former vice president Delcy Rodríguez. The Chavista regime has been a master at appearing to negotiate while stalling and hoping for their counterparts to lose focus or support. Will President Trump be able to influence Rodríguez, and the remaining Venezuelan power structure, in the manner he claims possible? What leverage does he have in Caracas?

In this episode, we speak with Andrés Martínez-Fernández, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for National Security, about what’s next for Venezuela and the impact it will have on other countries in the region, such as Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba.

Risks and Strengths of Latin America’s Economies in 2026

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Despite trade tensions and political uncertainty, 2025 was not a bad year for Latin America's economies, with growth of around 2.4 percent, broadly in line with post-pandemic trends. In this episode we look ahead to 2026 and analyze the outlook for the region, from fiscal pressures and a pivotal election in Brazil to uncertainty around Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei and the evolving trade relationship between Mexico and the United States. To unpack which countries and sectors look strongest, and where the biggest risks lie, we’re joined by Nur Cristiani, head of LATAM investment strategy at J.P. Morgan’s Private Bank.

What the Trump Doctrine Means for Latin America

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0500

2025 has been an extraordinarily active year for U.S. policy in Latin America. With the release of President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy, which places the Western Hemisphere first and promises to “reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine,” along with a new “Trump Corollary” aimed at countering China’s influence, the trend has become even clearer. We discuss the defining features of this assertive approach and what it means for governments, businesses, and regional stability. Our guest os Ricardo Zúniga, former principal advisor for the Americas to President Barack Obama and now founding partner at Dinámica Americas.

A New Rightward Wave in Latin America?

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 11:00:00 -0500

Right-wing candidates are gaining victories across Latin America. Chile will likely turn right in the upcoming second round of elections, Javier Milei made legislative gains in Argentina and in Bolivia recent elections ended 20 years of Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party leadership. With key races ahead in 2026, some analysts say the right could become the region’s dominant political force, echoing the sweeping “pink tide” of the early 2000s, but in the opposite ideological direction. Is this a historic turn, or are voters simply rejecting whoever is in power? In this episode, we debate this question with Oliver Stuenkel, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and ask what it could mean for the years ahead.

A Right Turn in Chile?

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 16:00:00 -0500

Chileans head to the polls this Sunday, November 16. In the last election cycle, Gabriel Boric won following the massive 2019 protests that shook the nation to its core. At the time, it seemed Chile was set for sweeping structural change: the classic poster child for neoliberal economic policy in Latin America appeared ready to build a stronger welfare state and elect leaders from the left. Six years later, some change has occurred, but not nearly as dramatic as many expected. Efforts to rewrite the constitution were aborted twice, and the young leftist president, Gabriel Boric, is leaving office with an approval rating of just 30%. Chileans have turned their attention to other issues, especially crime, which has worsened notably over the past decade. The widespread expectation is that voters will opt for a change in power, and that Chile will join several other Latin American countries swinging to the right.

In this episode, we speak with Patricio Navia, a Chilean political scientist, about what this could mean for Chile’s economy and strategic alliances. Navia is a professor at both New York University and Universidad Diego Portales.

Understanding Trump’s Military Buildup in Latin America

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 12:00:00 -0400

The recent deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, has intensified speculation about Washington’s true objectives in the Southern Caribbean. In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, we examine what’s really behind the Trump administration’s escalating military activity. Is it a hardline campaign against drug cartels, or the opening moves of a broader effort to pressure Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro? What do we know about dynamics within the Venezuelan military? And to what extent could this impact Washington’s relations with Colombia and other countries in the region? Our guest is Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Claudia Sheinbaum's First Year

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 11:00:00 -0400

Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum has hit the one-year mark of her presidency. In that time she has had to balance three key relationships: with President Donald Trump, with her still-powerful predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador and with the Mexican public. She faced skepticism, but has surprised many. Sheinbaum’s approval rating is at 73%, and a plurality of Mexicans said in a recent poll that her government is off to a better start than AMLO’s. Challenges loom, from fragile security gains and economic uncertainty to political dispute within her party and the ever-volatile dynamic with Washington. To assess her first year in office and what lies ahead we speak with Brenda Estefan, professor at IPADE Business School and columnist for Reforma and Americas Quarterly.

Argentina: A Potential Lifeline for Javier Milei

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 19:00:00 -0400

Argentina’s President Javier Milei just got a much-needed boost from his ally, U.S. President Donald Trump. The White House has signaled plans for a $20 billion swap line to contribute to Argentina’s fragile reserves—a lifeline coming just as Milei faces market turmoil, political setbacks and a corruption scandal close to home. With midterm elections set for the end of the month, the big question is whether this support can keep Milei’s project on track—or whether he’s already peaked. Our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Díaz of Cefeidas Group and AS/COA, joins us to break it all down.

How Crime Is Affecting Latin American Politics

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 12:00:00 -0400

Latin America is entering a packed election season, with Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and Brazil all set to elect presidents in the next 13 months. This is happening just as organized crime reaches unprecedented power. In several of these countries, crime is showing up in polls as the number one political issue. Security expert Lucía Dammert explains how booming cocaine production, money laundering and criminal infiltration of formal economies are reshaping politics across the region. Dammert has a unique perspective as someone who has worked in both academia and government across the region. She has a new book out, Anatomía del poder ilegal: Violencia, crimen organizado y corrupción en América Latina.

Brazil: Bolsonaro's Trial

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 21:00:00 -0400

A landmark trial is underway in Brazil: former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, stands accused of trying to overturn the 2022 election. Alongside military officials and ex-ministers, Bolsonaro faces charges that could reshape Brazil’s political future — and reverberate globally. The U.S. has recently launched a campaign against Brazil’s judiciary in a show of support for Bolsonaro. Journalist Patricia Campos Mello joins us to unpack the case, the international stakes, and how both the right and left in Brazil are reacting to this pivotal moment.

Bolivia’s Game-Changing Election

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 14:00:00 -0400

Bolivia's long-dominant MAS party has suffered a historic defeat, with its presidential candidate winning just 3% of the vote. The result reflects deep frustration over the country’s economic crisis and political infighting. In a surprise outcome, Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira led the first round, followed by former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. The two will be in a runoff on October 19. In this episode, we speak with Bolivian journalist Raúl Peñaranda about what sets these candidates apart, the future of the MAS, and whether the next president can revive the economy while navigating the country’s deep social and regional divisions.

Resilience Amid Chaos: An Overview of LatAm Economies in 2025

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 13:00:00 -0400

In this special mid-year episode, we take a step back for a look at where the region’s economies stand, and the picture is better than many expected. We evaluate the impact of Trump’s new tariffs, the short- and medium-term prospects for Mexico's economy, as well as positive indicators like falling inflation in Argentina and resilient growth in Brazil. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, Chief Economist for Latin America at Citigroup, who returns to share insights on what to watch in the months ahead.

Brazil vs USA: Risks and Possible Ways Out

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 15:00:00 -0400

A major confrontation is brewing between the United States and Brazil, driven by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the deepening legal troubles of his close Brazilian ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro. As Brazil’s judiciary pursues charges against the former president for attempting to overturn the 2022 election, Trump has retaliated with threats of steep tariffs and revoked visas for Brazilian Supreme Court justices. Meanwhile, the U.S. has launched an investigation into Brazil’s trade practices and electronic payment services, further straining relations. In this episode, we speak with Chris Garman, managing director for the Americas at the Eurasia Group, to unpack what’s at stake for both countries, why tensions are escalating, and what a way forward might look like.

Colombia Enters a Turbulent Election Season

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 07:00:00 -0400

As Gustavo Petro spars with Donald Trump, violence is surging in Colombia ahead of next year’s elections. The attempted assassination of conservative presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June set off alarm bells all over Latin America. Since then, there have been other causes for concern, including a series of car bombs in Cali and news of a plot against another right-wing candidate. In this episode, political analyst Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, joins us to explore why the security situation in Colombia has deteriorated, what’s ahead for the country’s economy and its relationship with the U.S., and which candidates seem best positioned ahead of the elections.

BRICS and China’s Influence in Latin America

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 11:00:00 -0400

As Brazil prepares to host the 2025 BRICS Summit, questions are swirling about the future of the group, as well as China’s growing presence in Latin America. In this episode, we explore the shifting dynamics of global influence with Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, in São Paulo, and a visiting scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We discuss Brazil’s evolving role within BRICS, Lula’s foreign policy choices—including his skepticism toward BRICS expansion and the Belt and Road Initiative—and what it all means for U.S.-Latin America relations.

Bukele’s Latest Crackdown

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 13:00:00 -0400

The recent arrests of two prominent critics of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele have sparked renewed concerns about the country's democratic backsliding. In this episode we discuss the detentions of attorney Ruth López and constitutional lawyer Enrique Anaya, both vocal opponents of Bukele, and what these developments might signal about the president’s tightening grip on power. We also talk about challenges on the economic front and a slight dip in Bukele's sky-high approval ratings. Our guest is The Economist’s Mexico and Central America bureau chief, Sarah Birke. Sarah shares insights from her recent reporting trip to El Salvador, unpacking what’s happening on the ground and what to watch for in the months ahead.

A Crossroads for Mexico’s Security

Thu, 29 May 2025 11:00:00 -0400

On May 20, two top aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were shot dead in a rare daytime attack, raising questions about security under Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Known for her tougher stance on organized crime, Sheinbaum has overseen a drop in homicides and taken bold steps like extraditing cartel leaders. In this episode we speak with security expert Eduardo Guerrero to unpack the recent violence, what has defined the Sheinbaum era of security policy and what we can expect moving forward.

Javier Milei’s Next Big Challenges

Fri, 16 May 2025 08:00:00 -0400

President Javier Milei has made global headlines with his radical economic reforms and bold rhetoric, earning praise from figures like Donald Trump and Silicon Valley elites. At home, his record is mixed: inflation has dropped dramatically and a major IMF deal has been secured, but poverty remains high and economic imbalances persist. With his approval rating holding steady below 50%, Argentina stands at a crossroads. Will Milei deliver transformational change, or will discontent shift momentum to other political forces? To unpack what’s happening on the ground, we’re joined by political consultant Ana Iparraguirre.

Guatemala: Arévalo’s Tumultuous First Year

Fri, 02 May 2025 09:00:00 -0400

Just over a year after Bernardo Arévalo’s tense but ultimately successful inauguration as president of Guatemala, his administration faces a complex mix of progress and mounting challenges. Elected on an anti-corruption platform, Arévalo has delivered key reforms and economic growth—but his popularity is waning, and governability remains uncertain amid fierce opposition. In this episode, part of AQ’s special report on Guatemala, we dive into the country’s political, social, and economic landscape. Guests Claudia Méndez Arriaza, a veteran investigative journalist, and Juan Carlos Zapata of FUNDESA, join us to discuss political tensions, public expectations and development challenges.

Cuba’s Unprecedented Crisis

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 12:00:00 -0400

Cuba is facing its worst crisis in decades, with blackouts and a mass exodus that has seen 20% of the population flee in five years. In this episode, we shed light on everyday life amid ongoing economic hardship, explore the durability of the Cuban regime and assess whether its grip on power is at risk. The conversation expands to Cuba’s evolving relationships with key international allies, including Russia, China, and Venezuela. Finally, we turn to U.S. foreign policy, focusing on the implications of Trump's return to the White House. Our guest is Patrick Oppmann, CNN's Havana bureau chief.

Brazil: Bolsonaro on Trial, Lula Under Pressure

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 11:00:00 -0400

With Brazil about a year and a half away from the 2026 elections, political dynamics are shifting once again. The economy is growing at 3%, and employment remains high, yet President Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—the lowest of any of his three terms. Meanwhile, the right may be gaining momentum, fueled by the Supreme Court’s decision to put former President Jair Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged 2022 coup attempt. Bolsonaro has appealed to conservative global figures, comparing his legal battles to those of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. In this episode, Guilherme Casarões analyzes Brazil’s evolving political and economic landscape. Casarões is a professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas’s São Paulo School of Business Administration and a contributor to AQ.

Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Moment

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 11:00:00 -0400

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying remarkable popularity, garnering over 80% approval, while Mexico navigates shifting demands from U.S. President Donald Trump, economic uncertainty and security concerns. In this episode we delve into how she differs from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her evolving approach to the Trump administration, how she is handling Mexico's security challenges and whether her popularity can endure. Our guest is Viri Ríos, a writer, political scientist and an analyst of Mexican politics and public policy. Ríos is a close observer of Morena, President Sheinbaum's party, and its overall political project.

How Organized Crime Is Evolving in Latin America: 2025 Edition

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 11:00:00 -0500

Organized crime is a persistent and evolving challenge in Latin America. At the moment crime syndicates are seeing unprecedented financial gains, fueled not only by a surge in cocaine production—more than doubling in the past decade, according to the UN—but also by profits from illegal gold mining and human trafficking. As security concerns rise, these issues are set to play a crucial role in elections in Ecuador, Honduras, Chile, and Colombia. Meanwhile, the U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, has been pressuring Mexico to curb drug and migrant trafficking, going so far as to impose tariffs on its neighbor. In this episode, we look at how organized crime is shifting in Latin America in 2025. Our guest, Jeremy McDermott, co-founder of InSight Crime.

Trump’s Impact So Far on Latin America

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 12:00:00 -0500

A month into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Latin America has become a key focus of his administration. From high-stakes negotiations with Mexico to his stated goal of reclaiming the Panama Canal, Trump’s policies have already had concrete consequences for the region. While leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele welcome his return, others question the reliability of the U.S. as an ally compared to China and Europe. To unpack these developments, this episode features journalist and writer Michael Reid, a former Latin America correspondent for The Economist and the author of Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America.

The Panama Canal: Past, Present and Future

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 09:00:00 -0500

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, much focus was expected on Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba, but Panama has surprisingly taken center stage, even becoming the site of Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad as Secretary of State. President Trump has said the U.S. should take the Panama Canal back. Are his true goals reducing China’s influence in key infrastructure projects and securing greater Panamanian cooperation on migration and trade, or is he serious about the threats? While China’s role has grown, they don’t control the canal. Meanwhile, Panama’s deep historical and economic ties to the U.S. remain strong, fueling confusion in Panama about Trump’s intentions. In this episode we talk to Panamanian political analyst Rodrigo Noriega about Panama’s past, present and future, assessing how the country's political class, public opinion the canal authorities are processing this delicate moment.

A Critical Election in Ecuador

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Nearly a year ago, Ecuador faced a surge of violence when drug gangs took over a TV station and kidnapped police, marking the country's worst security crisis. Since then, President Daniel Noboa has made modest progress, with homicides down 16%, but 2024 still ranked as Ecuador's second most violent year. Noboa also faced a severe energy crisis, with droughts leading to planned blackouts that hurt his previously strong public support. Despite economic challenges, including a potential recession, Noboa remains a leading candidate in the upcoming February 9 elections, narrowly ahead of correísta candidate Luisa González. As Ecuador prepares to vote, we analyze the fight against organized crime, the economic situation and how either Noboa or González might handle a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. Our guest is Sebastián Hurtado, the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.

Chancay Port and the China-U.S. Battle in Latin America

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 14:00:00 -0500

Peru quickly became one of the first countries in the cross hairs of the incoming Trump administration because of the recently-inaugurated Chancay port, which is run by the Chinese company Cosco Shipping. In this episode, we ask Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister of Peru, what is special about the Chancay port, what this project tells us about China's plans in Latin America and how Peru is likely to navigate the tension between the U.S. in China for which the country has become a lightning rod.

What to Expect from Latin America’s Economies in 2025

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 07:00:00 -0500

In this episode we look at what to expect from Latin America’s economies in 2025. Ernesto Revilla, chief economist for Latin America at Citigroup, evaluates the impact of Donald Trump’s return on the region’s economic outlook, his predictions regarding trade tensions, and how ideological affinities between presidents could affect economic policy. He also analyses the health of Latin America’s economies independently of Trump’s decisions, focusing on Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, but also commenting on Andean nations, as well as Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.

Mexico Under Pressure, Not Only from Trump

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 13:00:00 -0500

Since Donald Trump’s election there have been fireworks between him and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent as two leaders embark on what are likely to be contentious negotiations over migration, border control and trade. In this episode we discuss the potential consequences for Mexico and what is Sheinbaum’s strategy. We also assess the current health of the Mexican economy as the president marks two months in office. Our guest is Valeria Moy, director of director of the Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad, a think tank based in Mexico City.

Latin America Prepares for Trump 2.0

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 12:00:00 -0500

Donald Trump’s second presidency will likely bring an even stronger focus on Latin America than his first term did. Trump talked often about Latin America in the campaign, mainly through the lens of immigration and trade. In this episode we explore the possible consequences of his administration for the region. What could happen to Mexico-U.S. relations, as the two countries prepare to review the USMCA trade deal? How is Trump likely to act regarding Venezuela? What does his election mean for the right in the region? And how will the U.S. address China's growing presence in the region? Mauricio Cárdenas is a former finance minister of Colombia and a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.

Lula and Brazil’s “Big Center”

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 15:00:00 -0400

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has an approval rating of about 50%. Unemployment in the country is at its lowest level in a decade and the economy is expected to grow about 3% this year, beating forecasts from just a few months ago. But despite all that, in recent mayoral elections across the country, Lula's Workers’ Party (PT) finished ninth in the number of mayors elected. The big winners were politicians from the centrão, the so-called big center, a coalition of parties that range on the ideological spectrum from the center to the center right and right. These are also the parties that wield control in Brazil’s Congress. In this episode, an analysis of what these results suggest about Brazilian politics today, why the economy is seeing improvement and what is impacting growth potential. Our guest is Christopher Garman, managing director for the Americas, Eurasia Group.

Latin America’s “Food Paradox”

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 13:00:00 -0400

Latin America is the world's breadbasket. The region is now the source of more than 60% of the world’s soy, almost half its corn and more than a quarter of its beef. At the same time, about 28% of people in Latin America and the Caribbean don’t have enough food for themselves. On today’s podcast, we’ll explore Latin America’s so-called “food paradox.” Why is it that as the region produces and exports more food than ever, it’s also having trouble feeding its own people? Our guest is Brandee Mchale, Head of Community Investing and Development at Citi and President of the Citi Foundation. She discusses what is causing this paradox and how the private sector is implicated in solving it.

The Conservative Shift in U.S. Latinos

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 12:00:00 -0400

Although Democrats still lead among Latinos, Republicans have grown their share of support among that community in the last two elections. Looking ahead to the upcoming contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we discuss some of the reasons for that shift, the long and little-known history of the Latino population in the United States and how economic and social issues shapes their political views. Marie Arana, author of LatinoLand: A Portrait of America's Largest and Least Understood Minority, argues that Democrats and politicians of all stripes are just beginning to understand them.

Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum and the Shadow of AMLO

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 13:00:00 -0400

Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico's new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO's more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what she expects from Sheinbaum's government. Rubio argues her administration will take shape as a new blend—one that could be deemed “techno-populist.”

An X-Ray of Javier Milei's Argentina

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:00 -0400

Javier Milei has so far succeeded in making drastic changes to Argentina's economic policies. In this episode we evaluate what has worked and what hasn't, and who have been the winners and losers. Milei's deep spending cuts have produced in the first 5 months of 2024 a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP and inflation is down to about 4% a month. Poverty however continues to rise and the IMF projects an economic contraction of 3,5% for 2024. What do these results amount to in terms of real improvement to the economy? What challenges remain? And what are the most likely political and economic outcomes of Milei's policies? Our guest is Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a former chief economist of the Central Bank of Argentina, and currently a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires. He also discusses the need for a revival of centrist politics in Latin America.

What Kamala Harris Would Mean for Latin America Policy

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 14:00:00 -0400

The entry of Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race has completely transformed the election. In this episode we ask what we can expect from her Latin America policy were she to win in November. How do leaders in the region perceive her? What are her views on migration? What can we learn from her record as Vice-President, tasked with the challenging issue of addressing the factors that make people from Central America migrate to the U.S.? What is her stance on trade, and how might she handle the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)? Our guest is Roberta S. Jacobson, a former State Department official.

Venezuela: Possible Paths Forward

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 15:00:00 -0400

Since the election on July 28 Nicolás Maduro has unleashed a wave of repression not seen in Venezuela before. The question on everyone's mind is, what now? Will Venezuela move further down the path of a dictatorship, or is there some chance of a negotiated solution that might lead to a democratic transition? In this episode, Roberto Patiño, a civil society leader and a member of one of the opposition parties, discusses the opposition's strategies, evaluates the positions taken by Brazil, Colombia, the U.S. and Mexico and describes what he sees as cracks in the Maduro regime.

Ecuador’s Difficult Battle with Organized Crime

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:00:00 -0400

Ecuador’s young president Daniel Noboa is engaged in a tough battle with organized crime groups that paralyzed the country earlier this year. It’s been six months since that dramatic series of events. In this episode we take stock of what has happened since. How successfully has the government dealt with the security crisis? How valid are comparisons between Ecuador’s crackdown and that of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador? What has happened to Noboa’s popularity after it spiked following those attacks in January? And is Noboa considered the favorite to be reelected in Ecuador’s next presidential election, scheduled for February 2025? Or guest is Sebastian Hurtado, a political risk consultant based in Quito.

Gustavo Petro: The Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 15:00:00 -0400

Gustavo Petro is halfway through his presidential term in Colombia. The first leftist president in the country's modern history faced suspicion from the political and economic establishment from day 1. He’s used sweeping rhetoric to describe his plans for an economic overhaul, as well as his security initatives But in practice, Petro has struggled to translate his speeches into reality. In this episode we do a broad overview of Petro’s government so far, trying to separate rhetoric from reality, understand areas where his government has been successful and identify challenges and risks in his remaining two years in office. Our guest is Laura Lizarazo, Senior Analyst for the Andean region in Control Risks' Global Risk Analysis.

The Bukele Model: Why It’s Hard to Replicate

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 16:00:00 -0400

Voters throughout Latin America are craving solutions to the spread of organized crime. In today's episode, we’ll look in detail at how Nayib Bukele executed the crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, analyze the extent to which the model has been adopted by some politicians around the region and evaluate why that is more difficult than it seems. Our guest is Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a doctoral candidate in government at Harvard University. He just co-authored with Alberto Vergara, professor of political and social sciences at the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, a piece entitled "The Bukele Model: Will It Spread?", published in the Journal of Democracy.

Brazil: A Tough Moment for Lula 3

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 12:00:00 -0400

In Brazil, unemployment is at a record low, inflation is under control and growth projections are being revised up. However, the Lula administration is having a hard time moving forward with expected reforms, and financial markets are reacting negatively. This episode dissects the forces behind these trends. Why is Lula facing resistance in Congress? What are the economic debates under way inside the administration, and who is winning? How is Lula himself handling the challenges of a third term? Our guest is political analyst Celso Rocha de Barros, a sociologist, an analyst for Brazil's Central Bank, a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo, a podcaster at Revista Piauí and the author of PT, Uma História, a book about the history of Lula's Worker's Party.

Our Mid-Year Update on Latin America’s Economies

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 12:00:00 -0400

Twice a year the AQ Podcast takes stock of Latin America’s economies — what the region is doing well and where the challenges are. There is good news — inflation below OECD levels, for example, but growth is still below potential, according to our guest, William F. Maloney, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank. He argues that more competition within countries could be a motor for change. William also provides some clarity on the trend that’s been at the top of everyones minds when it comes to investment in the region, nearshoring, and the extent to which it is actually happening.

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Guest:

William F. Maloney is Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank

Host:

Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly

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Venezuela’s Election: How It Could Play Out

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 12:00:00 -0400

Venezuelans are scheduled to vote for president on July 28th. In today’s episode, we look at the state of the negotiations between the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition, assess how inclined Maduro is to accept a possible defeat and if there’s any chance for a transition to democracy. The opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat and academic, has about 60% support in polls, compared to support of just 9% support for President Maduro. Our guest is Michael Penfold, Professor at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and author of El país que se muerde la cola (2023).

What To Expect From Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 16:00:00 -0400

Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in the Mexican elections was expected, but the 30-point margin surprised many and gave her and the Morena coalition a mandate like few others in Latin America’s recent political history. In this episode, Viri Ríos, a scholar and one of Mexico's most prominent intellectual personalities, discusses how the country got here and looks ahead to what she thinks Sheinbaum and Morena do with that power, as well as to what extent Sheinbaum’s six-year term be a continuation of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

A Surprising Case for Optimism in Peru

Thu, 30 May 2024 14:00:00 -0400

Peru's story in the past 20 years has gone from fast growth and poverty reduction to fractious politics and a dwindling economy. In this episode, Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister (2016-2017), makes the case for how the country could get back on track to restore growth and distribute it more fairly between rich and poor, Lima and the rest of the country. In his view, high copper prices and new ports expected to be inaugurated soon provide that opportunity, despite the risks associated with a dependency on commodities for development.

Panama: New President, Global Challenges

Thu, 23 May 2024 11:00:00 -0400

Panama’s president-elect José Raúl Mulino assumes control of a country struggling with challenges that pertain not only to its population but to many other countries as well. Climate change is affecting the Panama canal and there is rising migration through the Darien Gap. Panama is also a theater for the U.S.-China competition. In today's episode we explore what to expect from Mulino's term in office regarding these and other issues, such as the copper mine that has been a center of controversy in the past year and what's next for Ricardo Martinelli, the former president who helped put Mulino in office while simultaneously hiding in the Nicaraguan embassy to escape a conviction for money laundering. Our guest is Mat Youkee, a journalist who has covered Latin America for many years and Panama since 2018.

AQ Podcast Will Return on May 23

Thu, 02 May 2024 12:00:00 -0400

What Biden 2.0 Would Mean for Latin America Policy

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 18:00:00 -0400

In an attempt to gauge what another Joe Biden or Donald Trump administration would mean for policy toward Latin America, the AQ Podcast is bringing in people with intimate knowledge of both camps. In this episode, Ricardo Zúniga, a major figure on Latin America policy under the Barack Obama and Biden administrations, reviews the major events on the past fours years and looks ahead to what could change if Biden is reelected in November. He discusses overarching policy strategies towards the region, how the U.S. has addressed China’s growing presence there, migration and trade, as well as the specific dynamics of the relationships with Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Cuba and Argentina.

Why Argentines Seem to Be Sticking With Milei

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 15:00:00 -0400

Since Javier Milei took office in December, life has become even more difficult in Argentina. Real salaries have fallen by more than 20% since December. Inflation has lowered, but is still running high, above 270% on an annual basis. Yet Milei’s approval rating is still around 50%. In today's episode we discuss with pollster and political strategist Ana Iparraguirre why that is. We also talk about the state of his pro-market agenda, what he is likely to achieve in the near future and what to make of his search for prominence in the global stage. Iparraguirre is a partner at GBAO, a Washington-based political strategy consultancy.

Warning Lights for Brazil’s Economy?

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 13:00:00 -0400

Brazil's economy performed better than expected last year, expanding almost 3%. But in 2024 the outlook is more complex, as last year's sources of growth are not expected to perform in the same way. There is also a tug of war inside the Lula administration about public spending and government oversight in national oil company Petrobras. In this episode we assess Latin America's largest economy from an investment perspective and look at the politics behind recent government decisions and what is to come. Our guest is Mário Braga, a senior analyst for Brazil at Control Risks consultancy firm.

Venezuela: Maduro's and the Opposition’s Strategies

Thu, 04 Apr 2024 14:00:00 -0400

The Venezuelan dictatorship is preparing to hold an election on July 28th. Despite signs that the race will not be free or fair, the opposition is willing to participate. In this episode, we dive into the motives and tactics on both sides. What is Maduro looking for, and is there a real chance he could lose? What is going on behind the curtains with the opposition – why are they willing to participate, how divided is this, and who are the members likely to support? Our guest is Jose Vicente Carrasquero, a mathematician and political scientist who teaches at Miami Dade College.

The Shifting Sands of Organized Crime in Latin America

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 11:00:00 -0400

Organized crime has in recent years begun to affect formerly calm countries like Chile and Ecuador, while remaining strong in places such as Mexico and Brazil. In this episode, an analysis of recent crime trends in the region. We’ll also assess how governments have been responding – some choose to disengage altogether, while others toughen their approach. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publication that produces in-depth reports and analysis on international crime in Latin America.

Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum's Election to Lose?

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 14:00:00 -0400

Less than three months away from Mexico's elections, many analysts see it as a given that Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner, is likely to win. Sheinbaum’s biggest asset is the endorsement of the current president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, who seems to be transferring his popularity to her candidacy. But there are still a lot of questions about this race and about the candidates. Is there any chance that the opposition candidate Xochitl Gálvez could still pull this off? What defines these two candidates? How might Claudia Sheinbaum be different from López Obrador once she’s elected, in style, and in areas such as energy and security? How is Mexico’s next president likely to interact with the United States, especially given Donald Trump’s past and current rhetoric about Mexico? In this episode, political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor takes the temperature of the political climate in Mexico.

South-South Ties: Hype And Reality

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 16:00:00 -0400

The goal of building ties between global south countries has driven foreign policy in Latin America and elsewhere in recent years. In this episode we dive into what that has amounted to. What have been the most successful examples of cooperation between Latin America and other global south countries? Which presidents have prioritized this, and what's their motivation? What are the challenges or barriers hindering effective cooperation between Latin America and other global south countries? And what does this agenda mean for countries of the global north? Our guest is Andrea Ordóñez, Senior Research Fellow at Southern Voice.

An X-Ray of Peru’s Tinderbox

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 13:00:00 -0500

Political instability persists in Peru. This week, Prime Minister Alberto Otarola resigned and Congress is expected to decide if it will remove the members of the Junta Nacional de Justicia, a body that helps select the composition of the judiciary. This is just the latest in a crisis that has been running for years – Peru famously has had six presidents in seven years. Some Peruvians say their democracy is under threat. What’s the best framework to think about the kind of democratic backsliding we are witnessing there? What are the forces driving this? And what are the real risks of such instability’s for Peru’s economy? This week we take a broad look at these trends with Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Brazil’s Big Year on the Global Stage

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 15:00:00 -0500

Since he took office in January 2023 Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been extremely active on the global stage, traveling frequently and offering himself as a mediator on big issues like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. At times he has stirred controversy, as was the case with recent remarks on the war in Gaza. On today’s podcast, an analysis of Brazil’s foreign policy as the country prepares to host the G20 summit later this year. What are the country's goals, to what extent has it achieved them and what can we expect moving forward? Our guest is Fernanda Magnotta, a Senior Fellow at the Brazilian Center for International Relations and a professor and coordinator of the International Relations Program at Fundação Armando Alvares Penteado in São Paulo.

Today’s LGBTQ+ Politics in Latin America

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 16:00:00 -0500

LGBTQ+ rights have been a political battleground between social conservatives and progressives throughout Latin America. While some countries set the standards for greater freedoms at the beginning of the century, a backlash has recently been gaining ground in some portions of the Western Hemisphere. No doubt, the situation is complex. Today, in our podcast, we will give an overview of LGBTQ+ issues in the region, how they intersect with politics, and where they’re headed in years to come.

Argentina: Javier Milei Runs into Resistance

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 15:00:00 -0500

Javier Milei came into office in Argentina promising radical changes. Once there, Milei moved quickly and aggressively – through decrees and an “omnibus” bill sent to Congress he pushed changes to more than 300 laws. While the decrees are still valid, the omnibus bill failed to get approved. On today’s podcast we’ll try to take stock of where Argentina stands now. What is the future of Milei's proposed reforms? What is the status of his political support after a little more than 2 months in office? How is the opposition organizing? And where have these past couple of months left the Argentine economy? Our guest is political risk analyst Juan Cruz Díaz.

What Trump Would Mean for Latin America Policy

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0500

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, and polls show him with a chance of winning the election in November. With that in mind, in this episode we try to gauge what Trump 2.0 would entail for U.S. policy toward Latin America. Our guest is the former U.S. ambassador to the OAS (Organization of American States) under Trump, Carlos Trujillo. Trujillo continues to speak to the former president and is seen in Washington as an insightful voice on what might happen in Latin America should Trump be elected to another term.

Ecuador’s Crossroads: Can Noboa Succeed?

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:00:00 -0500

Ecuador has become a critical front in the battle against criminal groups in Latin America. The country's 36-year-old president, Daniel Noboa, has tried to exert authority by arresting thousands of people, pushing for a 'war tax' and calling for a referendum on security matters. Can he succeed? And how is the political landscape likely to evolve in the coming months? Our guest today is Maria Teresa Escobar, a journalist based in Quito. Currently a freelancer, she is one of the founders of the Ecuadorean news website Primicias.

Guyana, Oil and the Resource Curse

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 15:00:00 -0500

Eight years ago, a consortium led by ExxonMobil discovered offshore oil in Guyana now believed to total at least 11 billion barrels. As a result, Guyana now has more oil reserves per capita than any other country in the world — almost three times as much as Saudi Arabia. This colossal find has led to difficult questions about whether the country can avoid the so-called resource curse – and the effects on climate change. On today’s podcast, an overview of Guyana's economy and how it is handling the challenges of abundance. Our guest is Jay Mandle, professor emeritus of economics at Colgate University and a member of the University of Guyana Green Institute Advisory Board.

How to Think About Latin America's Security Crisis

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0500

The images coming out of Ecuador in the past week were just the latest reminder of the extraordinary power of drug cartels in Latin America. Despite efforts by many governments, the production of cocaine in the region continues to soar, and criminal groups have diversified their practices. In this episode, a look at how leaders around Latin America are responding to this crisis. We’ll discuss whether legalization of some drugs might be politically viable and how drug violence is likely to impact politics in years to come. Our guest is Lucía Dammert, a researcher in the fields of security, criminal organizations and criminal justice reform. Dammert was a presidential adviser to Chile's Gabriel Boric and has also advised governments in Argentina, México and Perú. She's currently a Professor at the Universidad de Santiago de Chile.

LatAm’s Economies in 2024: What to Expect

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 14:00:00 -0500

In 2023 Latin America’s economies performed better than analysts expected. 2024 also promises growth, although the picture will vary a lot by country. On today’s podcast, we’ll look at which may perform better, which will do worse, what factors could determine success or failure and what may be the impact of elections, which are set to take place in six Latin American nations this year. Our guest is Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer for Latin America Credit Strategy and Research, at Moody’s Investors Service.

Lula 3 One Year On

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 16:00:00 -0500

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, the challenges ahead of him loomed large. A year on, the economy has grown more than expected, at 3%, and his administration has passed a historic tax reform. Nevertheless, the executive's relationship with Brazil's conservative, transactional congress remains a reason for concern. In this episode, one of Brazil's best-sourced political journalists discusses the ups and downs of Lula's first year, the strength of Brazil's conservative movement and former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the main challenges expected for 2024.

Guatemala, Guyana and Other Crises: A View From the OAS

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 14:00:00 -0500

Post-electoral tensions in Guatemala and the territorial spat between Guyana and Venezuela have the Western Hemisphere on alert. We speak to someone uniquely positioned to provide insight into these crises and reflect on how the international community is reacting. Frank Mora is the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), the Washington-based institution that brings together countries in the Americas. Before assuming his current position, Mora was a Pentagon official in the Barack Obama administration.

Peru’s Perpetual Crisis

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 15:00:00 -0500

One year on from the political crisis that engulfed Peru in December 2022, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima, the country is still facing a staggering number of risks in both politics and the economy. 12 months after then-President Pedro Castillo tried to illegally dissolve Congress and was removed from office, his replacement, Dina Boluarte, is now facing potential charges related to her government’s heavy-handed repression of protests. On the economic front, most analysts say Peru is in recession. In this episode, we try to understand what is happening and explore if things will improve soon. Our guest is Luis Miguel Castilla, a political consultant, a former finance minister between 2011 and 2014, and a former ambassador to the United States.

Javier Milei's Challenges

Wed, 29 Nov 2023 14:00:00 -0500

Since being elected on November 19, Javier Milei has changed the tone of some of the more radical policy proposals he campaigned on. He has backtracked on his aggressive rhetoric toward some of Argentina’s largest trading partners, such as Brazil. He has suggested that dollarization may occur not soon. And he had a cordial conversation with Pope Francis, whom he had described as the devil's man on earth. What does this about-face mean? Is a more pragmatic Milei emerging? And if that is the case, what are the circumstances he will face once in office -- what are his key tests ahead? In this episode, a conversation with Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires, on near-term political scenarios as well as a big-picture view of Argentina's structural challenges.

Mexico's Elections Begin to Take Shape

Thu, 16 Nov 2023 16:00:00 -0500

This past week, we started to get a sense of what Mexico's June 2024 general elections will look like. Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico's industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, how might it affect the campaigns of the current favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the governing Morena coalition, and Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate from the opposition Frente Amplio por México? What does this electoral cycle reveal about the current state of Mexican politics? And what are the factors that could shape the race going forward? Political consultant Carlos Ramírez joins us to explore these and other questions.

Chile: Gabriel Boric's Conundrum

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 19:00:00 -0500

Chile’s new constitutional proposal is ready and will be put to a plebiscite on Dec. 17. The document was received earlier week by President Gabriel Boric after a mostly right-wing Constitutional Council drafted the text. This episode does a political overview of the country. We discuss what this new constitution would change, if approved, and look more broadly at the status of the left and the right, at Gabriel Boric’s political future and the state of the economy. Our guest in Claudia Heiss, Head of Political Science at Universidad de Chile.

Brazil: The Big Picture

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 15:00:00 -0400

After a decade of negative or meager economic expansion, Brazil's GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2023. Significant reforms, such as tax reform, are being discussed, and a modern, green economy could take hold. How successfully is the Lula government handling the economic challenges, and which areas will benefit the most? In this episode, Arminio Fraga, one of Brazil's top policy minds, analyzes the structural dysfunctions at the root of Brazil's economy and suggests ways forward. Fraga, a former president of Brazil’s central bank, is now the chair of the Institute for Health Policy Studies (IEPS).

Massa vs. Milei: Who Is the Favorite in Argentina?

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Amid Argentina's worst economic crisis in more than 20 years, the self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei will now face Economy Minister Sergio Massa in a December 19 runoff to become Argentina’s next president. Both are fighting to attract voters from other candidates’ camps. Can Milei win over moderate voters? Can the governing coalition put Massa over the top with inflation nearing 140%? In this episode, Brian Winter and Ana Iparraguirre explore what’s ahead for Massa and Milei, who might have the upper hand, and how each candidate would govern if elected. Iparraguirre is senior vice president at GBAO, a political strategy consultancy based in Washington.

The White House’s Juan Gonzalez on the Venezuela-U.S. Deal

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 15:00:00 -0400

In this special edition of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, an interview with Juan S. Gonzalez, the White House's top Latin America official, about the potentially transformative deal announced this week between the U.S. and Venezuela. The U.S. is partially lifting economic sanctions that have been in place for several years on Nicolás Maduro's regime. In return, Maduro has committed to holding free and fair elections in the second half of 2024. What happens if the Maduro government doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain? Will the opposition's likely candidate, María Corina Machado, be allowed to run? Will these changes improve conditions on the ground in Venezuela? Gonzalez answers these and other questions. He is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council.

Is Latin America’s Lost Decade Ending?

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 17:00:00 -0400

After a “lost decade” that saw economies stagnate across Latin America and the Caribbean, a new optimism appears to take hold in some areas. 2023 will be the third consecutive year the IMF and other multilateral institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the region after they proved too pessimistic. Foreign direct investment soared 55% last year to $224 billion, its highest value on record. But the region’s growth rate remains below its potential, trailing other emerging markets in Africa and East Asia. In this episode, former Colombian finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas joins us with an overview of where the potential for growth lies and what are the obstacles to achieving that.

Making Sense of Venezuela's Elections

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 14:00:00 -0400

Venezuela is reaching a critical moment as the country's opposition prepares to choose its candidate in primaries on October 22. The winner will run against Nicolás Maduro in a general election next year. On this week's episode, AQ'S Brian Winter speaks to Ana Vanessa Herrero, The Washington Post correspondent in Caracas, about what the opposition and Maduro's endgame could be and how talks with the U.S. on conditions for free and fair elections are playing out as Venezuelans endure an uncertain environment, a recessive economy and an annual inflation above 400%.

Bolivia: The Return of Evo Morales?

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales has announced he will run again in 2025, likely competing with the current head of the executive, Luis Arce, whom Morales helped elect. The decision is splitting their party. In this episode, we take a big-picture look at the Andean country, how its economy and politics have changed since Morales was forced out of office in 2019, how he has changed and what political consequences his return could bring. We also discuss what to expect from Bolivia's efforts at lithium exploration. Our guest is Raul Peñaranda, an award-winning journalist, the director of the news website Brújula Digital and the president of the La Paz Association of Journalists.

Who's Who in Ecuador's Election

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Ecuador is facing many of the same issues we see across Latin America today. Long one of the region’s most peaceful countries, it has recently seen a daunting increase in violence, as international drug cartels use the country as a transit point. It is also immersed in a debate about how and whether to exploit its oil and minerals, during an era of rapid climate change. Politics have been unstable this year. In October there will be a runoff for a new president to serve out the rest of Guillermo Lasso’s term, after he invoked a constitutional mechanism that triggered fresh elections for both the presidency and the legislature. In this episode, Brian Winter and Will Freeman discuss the two candidates, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, and how Ecuador might fit into wider regional trends when it comes to ideological tendencies and environmental issues. Freeman, a columnist for Americas Quarterly, is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a political scientist.

Mexico’s Moment?

Wed, 20 Sep 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Mexico’s economy is shifting into a higher gear in 2023, thanks in part to stronger than expected investment from nearshoring. This July, we saw a historic moment as Mexico passed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, reclaiming that title for the first time in 20 years. What does this transformation mean in practice for Mexico's industrial hubs? Is the country taking full advantage of the nearshoring trend, or could it be doing more? What is the relevance of politics and the 2024 elections to investors' decisions? Our guests today are two Bloomberg journalists who recently reported from the industrial hub of Monterey, in the north of Mexico: Maya Averbuch, an Economy and Government Reporter based in Mexico City, and Leda Alvim, Markets Reporter at Bloomberg News, based in São Paulo.

Chile: What the 50th Coup Anniversary Tells Us About Politics Today

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 18:00:00 -0400

This month will mark the 50th anniversary of Augusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile. President Gabriel Boric has made the commemoration of that tragic chapter in Latin American history a major moment in his government, taking several initiatives to atone for the past, but the right is pushing back, at a moment when public opinion about the coup is changing. In 2005, an average of 24% thought that the military was right in carrying out the coup. In 2023, that number has risen to 36%. In the background is Chile's turbulent recent history: the massive protests that took place in 2019, the pandemic, an economic downturn, a security crisis, the rejection of last year’s proposed constitution and the ongoing attempt at drafting a new one. In such a context, how are we to interpret such poll numbers? What do discussions about the coup say about the state of politics in Chile today? And what does this moment mean for the country's future? Robert Funk, assistant professor of political science at the University of Chile, joins the podcast to discuss.

Is Bolsonaro Done? New Dynamics in Brasília

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 15:00:00 -0400

Recent scandals involving former President Jair Bolsonaro have left Brazil’s conservative movement in a state of flux. Meanwhile, the Lula administration is off to a relatively calm and successful start, with a 60% approval rating, the economy expected to grow more than predicted and inflation under control. What does that mean for the country’s politics going forward? In this episode, Brian Winter is joined by Fábio Zanini, editor of the “Painel” political column at Folha de S. Paulo, who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power. They discuss what to expect from the opposition and what the current political climate in Brasília means for President Lula's economic agenda.

A Turning Point for Latin America’s Economies

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 16:00:00 -0400

This is a critical moment for Latin America’s economies, with analysts foreseeing better than expected GDP growth this year in countries like Brazil and Mexico. The outlook, however, is uneven. In Argentina, Peru and Chile, there are big questions about where economies are headed, largely because of politics. In today’s episode, an overview of what to expect in upcoming months — where the risks lie, where there might be reasons for optimism and how external factors, like China’s growing economic problems, could affect the region. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup.

Argentina: Javier Milei’s Moment?

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 14:00:00 -0400

The radical libertarian economist Javier Milei placed first in Argentina’s primary election, upsetting the two-party system of the past 20 years. Milei describes climate change as a socialist lie, advocates for closing the central bank and chastises Argentina’s political class as a self-dealing 'caste'. Milei's success echoes that of recent outsiders on the right like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom Milei has said he admires. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst and professor Ignacio Labaqui examine what explains his rise and if he actually has a chance to win when the real voting takes place in October. They also discuss the possible paths forward for the other candidates, Sergio Massa, of the governing Peronist coalition, and Patricia Bullrich, of the center-right party of former president Mauricio Macri.

Why Latin America Is So Vulnerable to Cyberattacks

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0400

Latin America is the world’s most vulnerable region to cyberattacks, according to one study, and has suffered several dramatic hacks recently in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere. In this episode, Randy Pestana, Associate Director of Cyber Policy Program at Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, Florida International University, tells the stories of some of the region's biggest attacks in recent years and explains why some countries are particularly vulnerable, who is responsible for the attacks and what governments, companies and individuals can and should do to protect themselves.

Guatemalan Democracy on the Brink, and the U.S. Response

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 14:00:00 -0400

Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the 'pacto de corruptos' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former ambassador Stephen McFarland discusses how power operates in the country where he lived and worked for years and an election he describes as the most surprising in recent Central American history.

Argentina’s Election: It’s (Finally) On

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 15:00:00 -0400

Argentina's presidential elections will take place in October, but the country is now fully in campaign mode. In this episode, AQ's Brian Winter and María Esperanza Casullo discuss surprising recent developments, such as the ruling coalition's decision to back Economy Minister Sergio Massa as their candidate, and the apparent decline in support for the right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. They dissect the chances for the main contestants, and whether any of them would be able to rescue Argentina from its long stretch of economic troubles and take advantage of the country’s potential as a source of oil and gas, lithium, and other commodities. Casullo, who is based in the southern province of Neuquén, also describes what the election looks like outside the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.

What Happened To Anti-Corruption Efforts In Latin America

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 14:00:00 -0400

In the 2010s, corruption investigations dominated news headlines in Latin America, from Lava Jato in Brazil to La Línea in Guatemala. Nowadays, prosecutors, activists and journalists across the region continue their work of holding powerful politicians and business leaders to account, but they face a more difficult environment. That's the conclusion of the fifth edition of the Capacity to Combat Corruption (CCC) Index, produced by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Control Risks. In this episode, Geert Aalbers, a partner at Control Risks, explores some of the reasons behind these challenges and discusses the delicate status of anti-corruption efforts in places like Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala. Aalbers also explains why countries like Uruguay, Chile and Costa continue to rank high on the index and describes how Panama and the Dominican Republic improved their scores.

The Ups And Downs Of Lula's First Six Months

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 16:00:00 -0400

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after six months back in office, with a better than expected economy, but a tough relationship with the conservative Congress. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Thomas Traumann discuss why economists have increased their Brazil GDP growth forecasts since the year started, what to expect from economic policy moving forward and why, in Traumann's opinion, environmental policy will be the key battleground for the Lula administration. Traumann is a journalist and independent consultant. He worked as a minister in the Dilma Rousseff government (2011-2016) and maintains contacts with a variety of political voices across the ideological spectrum.

Nearshoring In The Americas: Hype And Reality

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 15:00:00 -0400

Global supply chains have become much more fluid in the past year, and some of this itinerant money is making its way to Latin America. Mexico has benefitted, but how have other countries, such as Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil fared? In this episode, Shannon K. O'Neil, author of The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter, discusses Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies, what industries and countries hold most potential when it comes to trade and nearshoring, what the challenges are for further progress and what the U.S. could do to encourage more investments.

A Sober Look at Colombia

Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:00:00 -0400

The Colombian political world has been shaken by the eruption of a scandal that led the country's attorney general to launch an investigation into reports of alleged illegal financing of President Gustavo Petro's election campaign. In this episode, Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst at Control Risks, evaluates the consequences of this to Petro's leadership and his proposed reforms to healthcare, labor laws and more. She also takes stock of changes to Colombia's energy sector, discusses the challenges to paz total and assesses the state of Colombia's economy more broadly.

Election Fever in Mexico

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:00:00 -0400

The race to replace President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico is starting to heat up. While his party, Morena, is in good position to win, a competition has begun for who its candidate will be. In this episode, political scientist Carlos Bravo Regidor analyzes the stakes, the favorites, the state of the opposition and what it all mean for Latin America’s second-largest economy. He also discusses what he expects from AMLO, as the president in known, in his last 18 months in office.

China's Learning Process In Latin America

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 14:00:00 -0400

It’s been two decades since China started to trade and invest heavily in Latin America, and in that time, the terms of the relationship have changed. There has been a move into clean energy and more long-term investments in infrastructure, including electrical grids. In this episode, Brian Winter and Rebecca Ray look at where the relationship is at and where it’s headed. They discuss Chinese and Latin American goals, what the latest numbers on trade and investment mean, as well as potential stumbling blocks for the development of the partnership. Ray is Senior Academic Researcher at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. She produces the annual China-Latin America Economic Bulletin series and the China’s Overseas Development Finance Database.

The Politics Of Migration In Latin America

Thu, 25 May 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Migration in the Americas is not a new story, but it is evolving fast. Countries that used to be senders of migrants are now also becoming recipients – Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil. Traditionally Latin America has had mostly welcoming policies towards migrants, but there are signs that could change in some countries. In the episode, AQ's Brian Winter speaks with Andrew Seele, President of the Migration Policy Institute, about migration trends and the countries where this has become a politically salient issue. Seele argues that there has been a hardening of positions, but there have also been successful attempts at integration.

Venezuela: A View From The Ground

Thu, 18 May 2023 15:00:00 -0400

From the outside looking in, it’s hard to understand what is happening in Venezuela these days. On the one hand Nicolás Maduro seems stronger than he’s been in years. The Venezuelan economy seems to have bottomed out, after years of terrible crisis. And the opposition is divided and struggling to connect with the Venezuelan people. On the other, the opposition and the Maduro government are back at the negotiating table and there is a sense that elections scheduled for 2024 might improve the political climate, even if those involved know that those elections won’t be free and fair. On this week's episode, AQ's Brian Winter spoke to The Washington Post's Ana Vanessa Herrero about how Venezuelans are faring economically, how most people see the Maduro regime and the latest developments in the Venezuelan opposition as they prepare for primaries and elections.

Explaining Chile’s U-Turn

Thu, 11 May 2023 15:00:00 -0400

Chile’s politics have been turned upside down once again, as an election last Sunday gave the political right almost full control over the writing of a new Constitution. A little more than a year ago, the country seemed to be undergoing a progressive transformation, after waves of protests, the arrival of a left-wing, young president, Gabriel Boric, and plans for what was supposed to be an expansive new Constitution. In this episode, political scientist Patricio Navia explains why the electorate’s mood seems to have shifted and what these developments mean for the political and economic future of Chile. Navia is a professor at both New York University and at Universidad Diego Portales, and a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.

The Importance of Paraguay

Thu, 04 May 2023 15:00:00 -0400

What happens in Paraguayan politics matters not only to people who live there, but for the rest of the region and the world. It’s a member of Mercosur, at a time when that bloc’s future is in flux, and a key part of the rising strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the region — Paraguay remains one of a few nations who still recognize Taiwan. In recent elections, the country went against a regional wave of anti-incumbency sentiment by choosing a candidate of the ruling Colorado party, which has been in power for almost all of the past seven decades. In this episode, we do an overview of Paraguay, looking at the consequences of elections to the rest of Latin America, how it fits into the growing U.S.-China competition, and why Paraguayan voters bucked a 5-year-long regional trend by voting for more of the same. Our guest is Julieta Heduvan, a Paraguayan foreign policy analyst and author of Paraguay, Política Exterior e Integración Regional.

Lula’s Foreign Policy and What It Means for Latin America

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 15:00:00 -0400

The return of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region is as experienced and has such a large global profile. Lula is in a position to lead on key issues such as climate, regional trade integration and the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. However, the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. In this episode, Brian Winter and Oliver Stuenkel discuss what to expect on foreign policy from Lula's third term as president. In the process, they analyze the meaning and the consequences of Lula's recent comments about the war in Ukraine.

Guatemala’s Suspiciously Status Quo Election

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 15:00:00 -0400

In Guatemala, economic growth has done little to improve poverty and inequality. Violence continues to drive people to leave the country. Democracy is also in decline, as successive governments have undermined institutions, jailed journalists and forced independent prosecutors and judges into exile. In these conditions, one might expect candidates in upcoming presidential elections to stand for change. Yet the leading ones share similarities with the current president. What explains this? In this episode, investigative journalist Claudia Méndez Arriaza describes how elites control the political and judicial systems in order to maintain power in their own hands. She also talks about hopes for change. Méndez Arriaza currently works with ConCriterio.

Bukelismo Rising: Security Versus Freedom In Latin America

Thu, 13 Apr 2023 16:00:00 -0400

El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele's hard-line security policies have contributed to a decline in homicides and extortion in El Salvador, but at a very high cost to human rights and democratic freedoms. Despite that, many in the region see this as a model to emulate and are vowing to implement similar policies. Is Bukelismo the wave of the future throughout the region? How should those who disagree with Bukele's strategy react and provide an antidote within the boundaries of the rule of law? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, deputy Americas director at Human Rights Watch, answers these and other questions in this week's episode.

Argentina’s Elections and Reasons for Hope

Wed, 05 Apr 2023 16:00:00 -0400

Argentina is approaching October elections with an annual inflation above 100%, poverty levels at around 40% and the possibility of tipping into recession again. However, the political class is mostly united in trying to avoid the worst, according to our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Diaz. Juan also argues that there is a sense of opportunity for the medium term, as a gas pipeline comes online probably sometime this year and interesting energy projects move forward.

Latin America's Green Energy Opportunities

Wed, 29 Mar 2023 14:00:00 -0400

Latin America’s transition away from fossil fuels is well underway, with an average 60% of renewables in its power mix. If the region can continue down this road, and incorporate new technology in areas like green hydrogen, it can become a true leader in the global energy transition and unlock a new era of green jobs and economic growth. But there are barriers, and politics can get in the way. In this episode, we get an overview of the status of different countries in the energy transition and where the challenges and best opportunities are. Our guest, energy analyst Luisa Palacios, argues that investing in clean energy is important for environmental reasons, but it is also a crucial tool for economic development.

Lula 3 So Far

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 15:00:00 -0400

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term as president of Brazil will soon reach its 100-day mark. The specters of Jair Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on institutions and the insurrection in Brasília on January 8 still loom. The economy is fragile. And there are disputes inside Lula’s party regarding how to address these and other issues. In this episode, we take a long view to try to understand Lula’s recent actions and what they mean for Brazil. Our guest is Celso Rocha de Barros, author of PT, uma história, a history of Lula’s Workers' Party. Rocha de Barros is a sociologist and a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo. The book is yet to be translated into English.

Changing U.S. Policy Toward Venezuela

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 14:00:00 -0400

At a moment when Nicolás Maduro commemorates 10 years in power in Venezuela, the opposition has agreed to participate in presidential elections in 2024, marking a change to their previous strategy of boycotting them. The United States has spent the past decade trying different measures to remove the Maduro dictatorship for office, most notably in 2019 recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president, a tactic that did not succeed. Now that the opposition is united, the U.S. should support their decision to move forward with elections, even if they are not ultimately free and fair. That’s what this week’s guests argue, and they call for a bipartisan approach to this support. Juan Cruz was the top official on Latin America at the White House at the beginning of the Trump administration and Mark Feierstein held that same job at the end of the Obama years.

Gustavo Petro's Challenging Moment

Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:00:00 -0500

Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro, is going through a rocky period in his administration. There have been challenges on the security front. The handling of a proposed healthcare reform has created fissures in his cabinet, most significantly the departure of Alejandro Gaviria, a minister for education, who represented the technocratic faction of the cabinet. In the meantime, Petro's family members are being accused of corruption. A slower economy and inflation of above 13% a year are not helping – Petro’s popularity levels have fallen below 50%. Critics say the president could turn more intolerant of dissent moving forward. What Petro should we expect to see from now on? In this episode, we discuss this with journalist and policy analyst Mariana Palau. Palau also shares her analysis of the government’s paz total program and changes to energy policy.

Luis Rubio on Why Mexico’s AMLO Is More Vulnerable Than You Think

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 16:00:00 -0500

More than 100,000 Mexicans protested last weekend against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposed changes to the country's electoral institute. The marches highlight the leader's relative vulnerability, despite his enduring approval ratings above 60%. Indeed, while the path may seem open for AMLO, as the president is known, to overhaul the country's electoral institute and bring to power a candidate of his choosing in the 2024 elections, there are judicial and political obstacles to AMLO's plans, argues this week's guest. In this episode, Luis Rubio, chairman of the think tank México Evalúa, discusses AMLO’s current situation and the consequences for Mexico’s economy, 2024 presidential elections, and its relationship with the United States.

How Organized Crime Is Changing In Latin America

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 15:00:00 -0500

Organized crime has shaped people's lives in places like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for decades. Recently, historically calmer places like Chile, Ecuador and even Uruguay have started seeing a rise in violence. What is driving this trend? In this episode, we do a broad overview of what's happening in transnational crime in the region and look at the individual dynamics in a number of countries. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publication that produces in-depth reports and analysis on international crime in Latin America.

Ecuador: President Lasso in Trouble?

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 14:00:00 -0500

Ecuador's conservative president Guillermo Lasso had his work cut out for him when he came into office in 2021. Elected partly because of a split in the Ecuadorean left, he had a weak mandate from the start. Last year, Lasso's government survived a major challenge from protests across the country. Now, another blow: voters defeated a referendum of constitutional amendments proposed by Lasso. Also, opposition candidates won municipal elections in key cities. Will Lasso finish his term? What does the crisis mean for Ecuador's economy? What do Ecuadorians want from their government? In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Sebastián Hurtado assess the outlook in Ecuador and how it relates to events elsewhere in the region.

Uruguay’s Lessons for the World

Thu, 09 Feb 2023 13:00:00 -0500

In many ways, Uruguay is in a class of its own in Latin America. The country has the region's highest per capita income, its lowest poverty rate and among its lowest levels of inequality. Uruguay’s energy matrix is the region’s greenest and its economy is forecast to grow a healthy 3.6%. In a time of extreme polarization in Latin America and the rest of the world, its political culture is marked by civility. The new issue of Americas Quarterly is about Uruguay and what we can all learn from what is arguably Latin America’s greatest modern success story. In this episode, Brian Winter and journalist Martín Aguirre, head of El País, discuss how Uruguay got there, the limitations of this success and where the country is headed.

Ways Forward for the Amazon

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 23:00:00 -0500

With the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a third term in Brazil, the international community expects the country to curb the aggressive deforestation and criminal activity seen in the Amazon in recent years. The path ahead will require astute political negotiations, argues this week's guest, Ilona Szabó, the founder of Instituto Igarapé, a think tank focused on security and development. Ilona talks to us about her expectations for Brazil's incoming government, prospects for cooperation with other Amazon nations, such as Peru and Venezuela, and how the private sector should navigate investment in the region moving forward.

Peru’s Crossroads

Thu, 26 Jan 2023 07:00:00 -0500

Peru's crisis continues to rage, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima. A long history of issues explains the current situation. Peru’s economic model brought growth and reduced poverty, but fell short of truly enfranchising the country’s most marginalized; the country’s political parties are considered by many to be dysfunctional. In this episode, Brian Winter and Luis Miguel Castilla, a former finance minister of Peru between 2011 and 2014, analyze what brought the country here and assess what might come next. Castilla argues for a middle ground that addresses the legitimate demands of Peruvian society for greater social protections and rights without throwing out the economic framework that allowed Peru to grow almost uninterruptedly for decades.

Lula’s Challenging Path Forward in Brazil

Thu, 19 Jan 2023 15:00:00 -0500

Following attacks on Brazil’s capital, the focus is on putting the country back together. The challenges are immense and wide-ranging: how to deal with security forces, parts of which supported insurrectionists, and how to handle Brazil’s growing radicalized groups, without overreacting and deepening division in an already polarized public. In this episode, Brian Winter and Patricia Campos Mello analyze the current political scenario, taking stock of the insurrection and looking ahead to what it means for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's governability, as well as the challenges he will face in other areas. Patricia, a journalist at Folha de S.Paulo, Brazil’s leading newspaper, is one of the country’s most respected reporters and an expert on the intersection of social media and politics, as well as Brazilian foreign affairs.

The White House’s Juan Gonzalez on Mexico Relationship, Venezuela and More

Mon, 09 Jan 2023 16:00:00 -0500

U.S. President Joe Biden is in Mexico this week, at a time when the administration is facing a host of issues around Latin America. In this special episode, Brian Winter and the White House's Juan Gonzalez discuss a number of them: disputes with the Mexican government over energy policy; changes in the Venezuelan opposition; new developments in the relationship with Cuba; expectations for Brazil's incoming government and what, if anything, defines Biden's approach to Latin America today.

How China’s Presence In Latin America Is Changing

Thu, 05 Jan 2023 16:00:00 -0500

In the last two decades, China has been a fundamental part of Latin America's economies. But the relationship is far from static. In today’s episode, we’ll look at how trade and investment flows changed in recent years and explore Beijing’s goals in the region. Our guest, Felipe Larraín, is a former two-time finance minister of Chile and a professor of economics at Universidad Católica de Chile. He evaluates recent trends and future trajectories for direct investment, official lending, trade and infrastructure; analyzes how the region's countries should, in his opinion, position themselves in the China-U.S. dispute; and discusses what has surprised him the most about Sino-Latin America ties.

Bonus Edition: What Victory Means for Argentina

Mon, 19 Dec 2022 16:00:00 -0500

After over 30 years, Argentines can finally say, once again, that they are the world's football champions. The victory brought millions to the streets in celebration, at a time when the country is going through economic and political troubles. What does it feel like to be there this week? What consequences, if any, could this have for the economy and for politics? Will the atmosphere of national unity witnessed in recent days soothe tensions in a highly polarized society? In this episode, Argentine political scientist and football fan María Esperanza Casullo, a professor at the National University of Río Negro, shares her reflections after her country's third World Cup win.

What Does 2023 Hold for Latin American Economies?

Thu, 15 Dec 2022 16:00:00 -0500

In this episode, Brian Winter and Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at Goldman Sachs, assess the state of the region's economies as we head into 2023. Why were numbers for 2022 better than expected, and why didn’t it feel that way for many? What should governments do to avoid headwinds in 2023? How might external factors, such as the war in Ukraine, economic activity in China and U.S. interest rates impact Latin American finances? Hear Ramos’ expectations for Latin America as a whole and specific analysis on Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Chile.

Moisés Naím on Latin America’s Bright Spots and Challenges

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 16:00:00 -0500

It’s been a difficult decade for much of Latin America, but there are also some causes for optimism. As 2022 draws to a close, Moisés Naím, one of the region’s most respected and followed political commentators, provides an overview of where things stand. In a conversation with Brian Winter, Naím discusses the struggles of democracy, as well as recent developments in Venezuela, his home country. Naím is the author of the book The Revenge of Power, which chronicles the rise of autocratic leaders in recent years and was recently named by the New Yorker magazine as one of the best books of 2022. He is a Distinguished Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a columnist for El País and a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.

"A Make-or-Break Moment For Mexican Democracy"

Wed, 30 Nov 2022 14:00:00 -0500

Recent protests have illuminated a political divide in Mexico. First, thousands took to the streets to protest against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's plan to overhaul the country's elections authority, the INE, or Instituto Nacional Electoral. Two weeks later, AMLO himself called a march to celebrate his four years in office, a move read by many as an attempt to showcase political strength. Why are some critics calling this a "make-or-break" moment for Mexican democracy? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter and political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor discuss what is at stake in the confrontation over the INE, what to expect from the 2024 elections and Mexico’s relationship with the United States.

Argentina: Trying to Avoid Another 2001

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 16:00:00 -0500

Memories of the December 2001 protests in Argentina arise whenever the country's social, economic and political crises deepen. Now, conditions are ripe for restlessness: inflation is nearing 100%, there are protests in the streets and the political scenario is convoluted. Could Argentina be close to another moment of social upheaval, similar to what happened in December 2001? In this episode, Brian Winter discusses popular discontent, the 2023 elections and Argentine foreign relations with Benjamin Gedan, deputy director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center, the director of its Argentina Project and a former South America director on the White House National Security Council during the Obama administration.

Lula’s Plans for a Divided Brazil

Thu, 10 Nov 2022 14:00:00 -0500

The election in Brazil is over, but the country remains divided and there are considerable challenges ahead for President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In this episode, Brian Winter speaks with political reporter and columnist for O Globo newspaper Malu Gaspar about how a possible institutional rupture was averted, what Lula's priorities will be and what he will face while trying to reunite Brazil's political class and address the country's economic, social and environmental problems.

Is Bukele or Boric the Future of Latin American Politics?

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0400

Millennials account for 23% of Latin America’s population, or roughly 155 million people. Two of them are already at the helm of their countries, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. They represent starkly different political projects - the latter more authoritarian, the former, democratic. Which vision is more likely to prevail in the coming years? How is this generation changing politics in the region? In this episode, Andrea Moncada, a millennial Peruvian journalist and the author of a piece that tries to answer that question joins Brian Winter to discuss who are millennials in politics, how their priorities differ from that of previous generations and what their ascendancy means for the future of the region.

How Evangelicals Are Transforming Politics in Latin America

Thu, 27 Oct 2022 08:00:00 -0400

The spread of evangelical Christianity is changing politics in Brazil, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and elsewhere in Latin America. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, we do an examination of how far this has gone in a number of countries, from Brazil to Guatemala, and what it means for future elections in the region. Our guest, Professor Taylor Boas, is the author of Evangelicals and Electoral Politics in Latin America: A Kingdom of This World, which is expected to be published in February. Professor Boas argues that we are likely to see a stronger alliance between evangelicals and Catholics, and that while there have been electoral successes, evangelicals may actually be losing the culture wars in the region.

Former President Solís on Central America: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0400

The backsliding of democracy is a reality in many parts of the world, and Central America has been no exception. Nicaragua is under an authoritarian regime. El Salvador’s President has announced he will run for reelection despite his country’s constitution forbidding it. And even in Costa Rica, once seen as a bastion of stability, there have been worrying signs. What is pushing this trend in the region, and what are the efforts to reverse it? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter and former President of Costa Rica Luis Guillermo Solís analyze the political scenario in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Guatemala.

New Unrest in Cuba: What it Means

Thu, 13 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0400

Cuba is facing a mixture of short-term and long-term problems. Hurricane Ian has devastated the island. This came amid a long period of setbacks, including a deep economic contraction and a severe migration crisis. In recent weeks, Cubans have taken to the streets. Is the country headed for even greater instability? How, if at all, could the relationship with the United States change? And is there an existential risk to the Cuban government itself? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to political scientist Javier Corrales about the island's predicament and what might happen next.

Brazil’s Surprising Election: What’s Next?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 11:34:31 -0400

Brazil's election results were much tighter than many predicted and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 30. Although Lula is still a slight favorite, Bolsonaro has received key endorsements and bolsonarismo showed its strength, winning majorities in the House and the Senate as well as key governorships. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economist, about what explains the results and what we can expect from the campaign moving forward.

Gustavo Petro: What We’ve Learned So Far

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 13:49:15 -0400

Colombian President Gustavo Petro was elected promising huge reforms. But since taking office, he has given mixed signals regarding how far, and how fast, his government might change Colombia’s economy, society and role in the world. Will the country’s class structure be significantly altered? Will there be a shift in drug policy? Will Colombia drop oil and coal from its energy matrix? And how much support do his proposals have? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Ricardo Ávila, senior analyst for the newspaper El Tiempo, takes stock of Petro’s first months as head of state and assesses how transformative his presidency could be.

A Reset for Chile and Gabriel Boric

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 16:57:03 -0400

As the dust begins to settle on Chileans’ emphatic rejection of their proposed new constitution, the political class has started negotiations for a new process. What provisions is the new charter likely to contain? Who might write it? Where does the rejection leave the young leftist president Gabriel Boric, and what will happen to Chile’s troubled economy amid such uncertainty? Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Adolfo Ibáñez University, answers these and other questions on this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Brazil’s Election and the Risk of an Institutional Standoff

Thu, 01 Sep 2022 13:37:40 -0400

Brazil’s election is now entering its final stage, and President Jair Bolsonaro is consistently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If the trend prevails, will Bolsonaro concede? Many in Brazil think he will not. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, veteran political analyst Thomas Traumman examines the final weeks of the campaign and what could happen next. He discusses the latest poll numbers, Bolsonaro's narrowing options for victory, the crucial roles of gender and religion in the race, as well as what to expect from the military if Bolsonaro contests the results.

Latin America’s New Pink Tide and a Look at Brazil

Thu, 18 Aug 2022 14:15:30 -0400

There is an unmistakable trend in Latin American politics today: the left is in charge in some of the region’s largest countries — Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Brazil, the biggest economy, could soon join this cohort if former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the October election. This in many ways recalls the original pink tide of the 2000s. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel discusses what he expects from this new wave of leaders and what they represent for the region’s major economies and diplomatic relationships. He also gives his assessment of the presidential campaign in Brazil and what a Lula victory could mean for the region and for the new pink tide.

Denise Dresser on Mexico-US Relations and What AMLO Really Wants

Thu, 04 Aug 2022 13:00:45 -0400

It has surprised many that there have been more disagreements between the US and Mexico under a Democratic presidency than under a Republican one. What explains this? Is the relationship, so critical to both countries, at risk of a genuine deterioration? What can we expect from Andrés Manuel López Obrador as he tries to navigate a weakened economy, rising violence and the upcoming 2024 elections? Professor, political analyst, writer and activist Denise Dresser takes on these and others questions in this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Colombia's Petro Prepares for Government

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:02:11 -0400

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro will take office on August 7 with a lot on his plate. The country’s first ever leftist president has promised substantial reforms to Colombia’s economy and society. Polls show Colombians are optimistic and expectations are high. How much will it be possible to achieve? How pragmatic will a Petro government be and what are his odds of success? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly podcast, journalist Mariana Palau discusses the incoming government’s situation in Congress, as well as plans for the economy and peace in Colombia. Palau is a reporter with BluRadio and a Master of Public Policy candidate at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government.

Crisis in Argentina & the Road to 2023 Elections

Thu, 07 Jul 2022 12:56:26 -0400

The surprise resignation of Argentina’s economy minister has raised concerns of an even deeper political and economic crisis. Where is the country headed? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, María Esperanza Casullo, a political scientist and professor at the National University of Río Negro, explores what is behind the resignation, what can be expected from the new minister and from next year's presidential election, as well as why Argentina is not ripe for “outsider” candidates like much of the western world.

What a Global Recession Might Mean for Latin America

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 17:13:57 -0400

Across Latin America, talk is turning to the possibility of a global recession. How vulnerable is the region, and which countries might do better than others? In this AQ Podcast, Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup, gives us an overview of the region’s economies, challenges like inflation and rising interest rates, and what the impact might be on politics, especially in countries with new governments like Colombia, Chile and Peru.

Luis Alberto Moreno on Colombia’s Elections and Latin America’s Upside

Thu, 09 Jun 2022 14:01:06 -0400

Colombia’s June 19 runoff between two strongly anti-establishment candidates tells us a lot about what’s happening in today’s Latin America, says Luis Alberto Moreno, a veteran observer of the region’s politics and former president of the Inter-American Development Bank. In this conversation, Moreno takes a long view of political developments, analyzing recent progress and setbacks. He discusses populism, inequality, economic growth and challenges to cooperation and trade between Latin American countries. Moreno does nevertheless have a glass-half-full perspective on the region, as outlined in a recent book. Moreno shares with the AQ podcast his reasons for optimism.

Changes in Venezuela

Thu, 26 May 2022 15:44:24 -0400

A modest degree of change appears to be underway in Venezuela. There are signs that a years-long economic crisis may finally have bottomed out. And the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro looks set to return to negotiations with opposition leaders after calling off talks last October. How much if any hope should these developments generate for a potential political and economic opening? What do they mean for Venezuela's relationships with the U.S. and other international actors? And what's the long game for chavismo as Maduro's government faces pressure at home and abroad? Raúl Stolk, director of the news site Caracas Chronicles, joins the AQ podcast for an in-depth conversation on Venezuela's future.

Haiti's Political Crisis: An Overview and Ways Forward

Thu, 12 May 2022 11:17:28 -0400

In the past year Haiti has lived through the assassination of a president, multiple natural disasters and an exodus of people. Now, a simmering political crisis has put pressure on the country's leadership and raised questions about how it will chart a path toward new elections. What role should the international community play in helping Haiti find a way forward? What are the limitations of U.S. involvement? Monique Clesca, a journalist and member of the Commission to Search for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis, joins the AQ Podcast to provide an overview of where the country stands today.

Could Jair Bolsonaro Still Win in Brazil?

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 11:13:31 -0400

Despite a host of challenges, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro appears to be in a stronger position to win re-election in October than many expected. Though still trailing in polls to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro has started to close the gap in recent weeks. What's behind this shift, and how might Lula respond as the campaign progresses? Joining the AQ podcast is Fábio Zanini, a columnist at Folha de S. Paulo who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power.

From El Salvador to Mexico and Brazil, Democracies Under Pressure

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 15:45:11 -0400

It's shaping up as another difficult year in Latin America for freedom of the press, judicial independence and separation of powers. From El Salvador to Peru to Mexico and beyond, fundamental rights are under pressure. What's behind the backsliding, and what can be done to push the region's democracies in the right direction? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, acting Americas director at Human Rights Watch, joins the AQ podcast for a tour of trouble spots around the region.

Petro's Race to Lose in Colombia?

Thu, 31 Mar 2022 16:04:18 -0400

Gustavo Petro is polling well in the run-up to Colombia's first-round presidential election on May 29. But recent events suggest the former mayor of Bogotá might struggle to bring more moderate voters to his side. What concessions is he willing to make to build bridges to the center and center-left? And which of his competitors is best positioned to close the gap in the weeks ahead? Joining the AQ podcast this week to offer an unvarnished look at the race and how the frontrunners might govern is Miguel Silva, the founder of Galileo 6, a strategic communications, political and crisis management firm based in Bogotá, Colombia.

Gabriel Boric Gets to Work in Chile

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 17:07:14 -0400

Expectations are sky-high in Chile following Gabriel Boric's inauguration as president on March 11. But challenges abound, from tensions with Mapuche indigenous groups and anti-immigrant protests to the uncertain impact of rising commodities prices. All this as the country rewrites its constitution – a messy process with the potential to upend public policy and politics. How will Chile's young leader navigate these obstacles? Isabel Aninat, dean of the law school at Adolfo Ibáñez University, joins the AQ podcast to offer her realistic expectations for Boric's first months in office.

The White House's Juan Gonzalez on the Americas Summit, Ukraine and More

Thu, 03 Mar 2022 10:38:52 -0500

The war in Ukraine has become a litmus test for how governments in Latin America view the changing global order. How is Washington positioning itself as the region's preferred partner for development and economic growth? How have the Biden administration's relationships with countries like Mexico, Brazil and El Salvador evolved since taking office last year? Ahead of June's Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, the White House's top aide on Latin America, Juan Gonzalez, joins the AQ podcast for a special extended edition.Guests:Juan Gonzalez is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council. Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chiefSupplemental readingHow Biden Can Get the Summit of the Americas Right by Oliver Stuenkel (https://americasquarterly.org/article/how-biden-can-get-the-summit-of-the-americas-right)Latin America Looks East by Brian Winter (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2022-02-24/latin-america-looks-east)

Mexico's AMLO on the Defensive

Thu, 17 Feb 2022 13:11:24 -0500

Entering the second half of his six-year term, Andrés Manuel López Obrador's presidency has taken a contentious turn. What's behind the Mexican president's recent war of words with the media and other critics? Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. and career diplomat for more than 20 years, joins AQ to discuss the key issues driving Mexico's current political debate.Guests:Arturo Sarukhan is an international consultant based in Washington, D.C. A board member of the Americas Society, he is the former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. (2007-13) and a career diplomat for more than 20 years. He served as Mexican consul general in New York and chief of policy planning at the Mexican foreign ministry, among other posts. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental reading:Mexico's Energy Reform: 3 Risks to Investors by Ana Lilia Moreno (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/mexicos-energy-reform-3-risks-to-investors)

A Lost Generation? The Crisis in Latin American Schools.

Thu, 03 Feb 2022 11:53:13 -0500

Students in Latin America missed more school because of the pandemic than any other part of the world. What will this mean for the region's long-term prosperity? Fernando Reimers, a professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Education and co-editor of Learning to Build Better Futures for Education, joins AQ to discuss the toll COVID has taken on Latin American education – and what businesses, policymakers and educators can do to avoid another "lost decade."

The Mystery of Pedro Castillo, Peru's President

Thu, 20 Jan 2022 13:24:37 -0500

It's been six months since Pedro Castillo was sworn in as Peru's president. But despite the threat of impeachment and a crisis in the mining sector, he has yet to offer a clear view of how he wants to govern. Andrea Moncada, a Peruvian journalist, analyst and contributing columnist to AQ, joins the podcast to examine Castillo's political isolation and uncomfortable relationship with power thus far.Guests: Andrea Moncada, a contributing columnist to Americas Quarterly, is a Peruvian journalist and political analyst currently based in the UK. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental reading: Pedro Castillo Isn't Out of Danger by Andrea Moncada(https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-reprieve-not-a-release-for-pedro-castillo/)Correction: This podcast incorrectly stated Fitch’s Peru GDP forecast for 2022. It should have said that Peru’s government expects 4-5% growth, while many private forecasts are for significantly less, including Fitch’s revised forecast for a 2.5% expansion.

Latin America’s Promising Green Energy Transition

Wed, 05 Jan 2022 10:29:00 -0500

Latin America’s transition away from oil and gas is well underway, with green energy investments bearing fruit in countries including Colombia, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. The region has a chance to be a leader, although unpredictable politics and this year's elections may get in the way, energy analyst Luisa Palacios says.Guests:-Luisa Palacios is a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental reading:"The Huge Risk Facing Latin American Oil Companies" by Luisa Palacios and Francisco Monaldi (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-huge-risk-facing-latin-american-oil-companies/)

Brazil's Polarized Presidential Election

Thu, 09 Dec 2021 12:12:03 -0500

Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are early favorites in Brazil's presidential election next October. Can a "third way" candidate defy expectations, or is the country headed for a showdown between two divisive figures? Thomas Traumann, a journalist and consultant, joins AQ to look at the contenders' strategies – and whether any of them can end Brazil’s decade-long malaise.Guests: Thomas Traumann is a journalist and independent consultant, and was Brazil's communications minister from 2014-2015Brian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chiefSupplemental reading:Lula Is Back. But Which Lula? by Thomas Traumann(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/lula-is-back-but-which-lula)Why Lula vs. Bolsonaro Leaves Little Room for Others by Oliver Stuenkel(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-lula-vs-bolsonaro-in-brazil-leaves-little-room-for-others)Have Brazilians Given Up on Bolsonaro? by Brian Winter(https://americasquarterly.org/article/has-bolsonaro-suffered-his-hurricane-katrina-moment)

Trouble Ahead? A 2022 Preview of Latin America's Economies

Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:11:44 -0500

Many Latin American economies bounced back strongly this year. Still, 2022 is likely to provide a reality check, says economist Alberto Ramos in this “from 30,000 feet” survey of what to expect. The outcome will have consequences for elections in Brazil and Colombia, as well as social stability everywhere.Guests:Alberto Ramos is the chief economist for Latin America at Goldman SachsBrian Winter is AQ's editor-in-chief.Supplemental Reading:"Could the U.S. and China Spoil Latin America’s Rebound?," by Otaviano Canuto (https://americasquarterly.org/article/could-the-u-s-and-china-spoil-latin-americas-rebound/)

Next Steps for Nicaragua

Tue, 09 Nov 2021 12:45:07 -0500

After jailing his opponents, Daniel Ortega won an election on November 7, extending his hold on power. On this episode, Nicaraguan journalist María Lilly Delgado weighs in on what’s next for independent voices like herself in a consolidating dictatorship. Former Panamanian Vice President Isabel Saint Malo also joins the episode with a message for the international community. Guests:María Lilly Delgado is an independent journalist and co-founder of the Huellas de la Impunidad journalistic project. Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado is the former vice president and foreign affairs minister of Panama and a member of AQ’s editorial board. Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chief. Supplemental reading:"Nicaragua’s Sham Election Is Over. What Should the World Do Now?" by Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado(https://americasquarterly.org/article/nicaraguas-sham-election-is-over-what-should-the-world-do-now/)"Another 5 Years for Daniel Ortega?"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/another-5-years-for-daniel-ortega/)

Fake News, Brazil and Jair Bolsonaro

Thu, 28 Oct 2021 13:24:20 -0400

Fake news is a problem everywhere. But many believe Brazil will be the epicenter in 2022, as President Jair Bolsonaro, facing a difficult reelection bid, is determined to protect his supporters’ “freedom of speech.” This week, Brazilian fact-checker Cristina Tardáguila breaks down how Brazil became a fake news hotbed - and looks for reasons for optimism.Guests:Cristina Tardáguila is senior program director at the International Center for Journalists. She founded Brazil’s first and largest fact-checking agency, Agência Lupa.Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chiefSupplemental Reading:"Inside Brazil's Dangerous Battle Over Fake News," by Mariana Palau(https://americasquarterly.org/article/inside-brazils-dangerous-battle-over-fake-news/)

Argentina's Frenzied Election

Thu, 14 Oct 2021 14:05:47 -0400

With a month to go before the November 14 vote, Argentina's legislative election has already turned the ruling coalition upside down and thrown a wrench into ongoing talks with the IMF. What is the government's strategy? And what should investors know about the election? Bloomberg's Carolina Millán joins the podcast to break down the stakes of the election.Guests:Carolina Millán is the Buenos Aires bureau chief for BloombergBrendan O'Boyle is the senior editor of Americas Quarterly

Colombia: Is Radical Change Inevitable?

Thu, 30 Sep 2021 12:11:38 -0400

Optimism can feel like it’s in short supply in Colombia. An IPSOS poll in September found that 89% of Colombians believed the country was “on the wrong track” – more than any other country polled. As elections approach next year, there are fears the discontent may empower more radical options. In his new book, and in his latest column for AQ, former finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas offers some ideas on how to channel desire for change in a constructive way, while weighing in on some of the major issues shaping the country today.Guests:Mauricio Cárdenas is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and was Colombia’s finance minister from 2012 to 2018.Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlySupplemental reading:"How to Avoid a Caudillo in Colombia (and Elsewhere)" by Mauricio Cárdenas(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-to-avoid-a-caudillo-in-colombia-and-elsewhere)

Special Edition: The White House’s Juan Gonzalez

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:33:30 -0400

As a series of crises challenges Latin America’s democracies, health systems, economies and more, Washington appears more engaged in finding solutions than it has been in recent years. But what are the Biden administration’s priorities? And how is it engaging with countries like Brazil, Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador? Juan Gonzalez, President Biden’s top aide on Latin America, joins the Americas Quarterly Podcast for a special episode.Guests:Juan Gonzalez is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security CouncilBrian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chiefSupplemental Reading:"The Silent Partner," by Brian Winter(https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/materia/the-silent-partner/)

The Race to Lead the New Chile

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 12:38:30 -0400

Change is in the air in Chile, with presidential and congressional campaigns heating up just as a constitutional convention gets to work rethinking the country’s political system. What can we expect from the November general election? And do the candidates promise radical change – or gradual reform? Adolfo Ibáñez University's Isabel Aninat joins this week’s podcast from Santiago.Guests:-Isabel Aninat is the dean of the law school at Adolfo Ibáñez University and director of the Chilean Society for Public Policy-Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chiefSupplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Chile"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-chile/)"Today’s Young Leftists Care More About Chile than Cuba" by Oliver Stuenkel(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/todays-young-leftists-care-more-about-chile-than-cuba/)

Venezuela's Negotiations: What’s on the Table?

Thu, 12 Aug 2021 12:34:05 -0400

Negotiations between Venezuela's dictatorship and opposition leaders are set to begin in Mexico - the latest in a long series of such talks. Is this time different? What opportunities really exist for progress? Is the opposition in a position to seize them? Political scientist Maryhen Jiménez Morales joins the podcast to discuss what's really at stake.Guests:- Maryhen Jiménez Morales is a postdoctoral research associate at the Latin American Center at the University of Oxford.- Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chief.Supplemental reading:"Venezuela’s Negotiations Won’t Get Rid of Maduro. So What’s Next?" by Maryhen Jiménez Morales.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/what-venezuelas-negotiations-wont-change/)

Mexico’s Puzzling Corruption Referendum

Thu, 29 Jul 2021 09:52:20 -0400

On Aug. 1, Mexico will hold its first national referendum, understood by many as a vote on whether to put past presidents on trial. Some have questioned the need for such a referendum and the messages it sends. But despite calling for the vote, the president “wants the referendum to fail,” says political analyst Denise Dresser, who spoke about the president’s motivations for the referendum and the problems – from COVID to crime – it may distract from. Guests:- Denise Dresser is a political analyst, writer, activist and professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México. - Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chief.Supplemental reading: "Mexico’s Farcical Referendum," by Denise Dresser.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/mexicos-farcical-referendum/)

Pedro Castillo Prepares for Peru's Presidency

Wed, 14 Jul 2021 12:35:22 -0400

Over a month after Peru's presidential runoff election, Pedro Castillo is expected to be officially confirmed as the country's president-elect in the coming days, just in time to take office on July 28. In recent weeks, the former teacher and union leader has sent mixed signals about the kind of government he’ll lead, some of which have encouraged investors and critics. Law professor and journalist Andrés Calderón joins AQ’s Brendan O’Boyle to discuss what we’ve learned about Castillo and what he can expect to face early in his term.Guests: - Andrés Calderón is chair of the academic law department at the Universidad del Pacifico and is a columnist at El Comercio. - Brendan O’Boyle is Americas Quarterly’s senior editor.Supplemental Reading:"What to Expect from Pedro Castillo" by Andrea Moncada.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/what-to-expect-from-pedro-castillo/)"The “Shadowy Figure” Behind Peru’s Likely Next President" by Brendan O'Boyle.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-shadowy-figure-behind-perus-likely-next-president/)

Jair Bolsonaro Under Pressure

Thu, 01 Jul 2021 15:26:48 -0400

A congressional inquiry, a slow vaccine rollout and renewed threat of impeachment have put Jair Bolsonaro under intense pressure. But Brazil’s president could still rebound thanks to support in Congress and a potential economic recovery, says Patrícia Campos Mello. The acclaimed journalist says Bolsonaro’s fate will hinge on complicated set of factors, including the performance of his likely 2022 election opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Guests:- Patrícia Campos Mello is an award-winning reporter and columnist at leading Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Bolsonaro’s Turmoil Could Be the Amazon’s Gain," by Oliver Stuenkel.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/bolsonaros-turmoil-could-be-the-amazons-gain/)

Investing in the Amazon’s Future

Mon, 07 Jun 2021 15:04:17 -0400

Illegal and unregulated economies are helping drive a spike in deforestation of the Amazon. Is an economic model possible that keeps the forest standing and provides sustainable opportunities for locals? That’s the question AQ poses in its latest special report, and it’s the topic of this new conversation between Editor-in-chief Brian Winter, Managing Editor Cecilia Tornaghi, and special guest Denis Minev, a CEO and investor from Manaus, Brazil.Guests:- Denis Minev is the CEO of Bemol and an angel investor in sustainable Amazon projects.-Cecilia Tornaghi is the managing editor of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"The Case for Sustainable Development in the Amazon" a special report.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-case-for-sustainable-development-in-the-amazon/)"The Amazon’s Big Cities Need Green Jobs Too. It’s a Challenge" by Monica Prestes.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-amazons-big-cities-need-green-jobs-too-its-a-challenge/)

Chile's Uncertain Future

Wed, 19 May 2021 16:50:43 -0400

The results of Chile's constitutional convention election shook markets and left many wondering what it all meant for the country just as a presidential campaign begins to heat up. Many are hopeful, while others, like this week's guest, Patricio Navia, have concerns. The political scientist joins AQ's Brian Winter to discuss possible pitfalls of the new constitution, and why he is still optimistic about Chile's long-term future. Guests:- Patricio Navia is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly, professor of liberal studies at NYU and professor of political science at Diego Portales University in Chile.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Chile’s Big Gamble Just Got Riskier" by Patricio Navia(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-big-gamble-just-got-riskier/)"Chile’s Riots: Frustration at the Gate of the Promised Land" by Patricio Navia(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-riots-frustration-at-the-gate-of-the-promised-land/)"Trapped: What If Chile Ends Up Like Argentina?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/trapped-what-if-chile-ends-up-like-argentina/)

Argentina’s Fight Over Closed Schools

Fri, 07 May 2021 10:50:46 -0400

Kids in Latin America have lost an average of 158 days of face-to-face schooling, with more students out of the classroom than any other region in the world. In Argentina, the debate over when to send kids back to school has gone all the way to the Supreme Court, further polarizing a country reeling from a second wave and the worst inflation in 18 months. Economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati joins the podcast to discuss what’s at stake and give an update on politics and the economy in an election year.Guests:- Eduardo Levy Yeyati is the dean of the School of Government of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Back to the 1960s? Education May Be Latin America’s Most Lasting Scar from COVID-19" by Nora Lustig, Guido Neidhöfer and Mariano Tommasi.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/back-to-the-1960s-education-may-be-latin-americas-most-lasting-scar-from-covid-19/)"Changing Argentina’s Inertia: Is it Possible?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/changing-argentinas-inertia-is-it-possible/)

Cuba’s Post-Castro Chapter

Tue, 20 Apr 2021 15:00:14 -0400

Cuba’s political regime took a step into unknown territory on April 16, when Raúl Castro announced he was stepping down as head of the ruling party. The change comes as the government faces headwinds from an economic crisis worsened by the pandemic, an artist-led protest movement, and a new administration in the U.S. But how much will things really change? Political scientist Javier Corrales joins the AQ Podcast to look ahead at what’s to come.Guests:- Javier Corrales is a professor of political science at Amherst College and a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Cuba’s Racial Reckoning, and What It Means for Biden" by Javier Corrales. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/cubas-racial-reckoning-and-what-it-means-for-biden/)

Crisis on Venezuela's Border

Wed, 07 Apr 2021 16:00:00 -0400

What’s driving an outbreak of violence on Venezuela’s border with Colombia? What does it say about Nicolás Maduro, who appears stronger than he was six months ago despite a worrying second wave and few vaccines in sight? The International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson joins the AQ Podcast from Caracas to weigh in on the complex panorama.Guests:- Phil Gunson is the Caracas-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Peru's Risky Election

Wed, 24 Mar 2021 15:09:45 -0400

On April 11, Peruvians will head to the polls to elect their fifth president in less than four years. An unpopular, crowded field of candidates adds to the election’s unpredictability. Could the country’s unstable politics finally catch up to its long-resilient economy? Peruvian political analyst Andrea Moncada joins AQ’s Brian Winter to preview the vote – and the risks it entails. Guests:- Andrea Moncada is a political analyst and coordinator of the opinion section of El Comercio. She also teaches politics and international relations at ESAN University in Lima.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Peru" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-peru/)

A Border Crisis and Biden's $4 Billion Solution

Wed, 10 Mar 2021 14:49:47 -0500

A surge in migrants at the US-Mexico border has become the first big test for President Joe Biden's migration policy. It's also giving new urgency to a $4 billion aid package that he has proposed to tackle the root causes of migration from Central America. But just "throwing money at problems does not solve them," says former Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís, citing problems on the ground such as corruption and democratic backsliding. On this week's episode of the AQ Podcast, Solís offers his ideas on how Washington can work with regional leaders and ensure efforts don't come up short. Guests:- President Luis Guillermo Solís is a former president of Costa Rica and the interim director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Can More U.S. Money Really Help Central America’s Northern Triangle?" By Luis Guillermo Solís(https://americasquarterly.org/article/can-more-u-s-money-really-help-central-americas-northern-triangle/)"It’s Not Just El Salvador. Democracies Are Weakening Across Central America." By Patricio Navia and Lucas Perelló(https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-bigger-reason-to-worry-about-nayib-bukele-and-el-salvador/)"The Pandemic’s Big Winner? Organized Crime" an AQ special report(https://americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-pandemics-big-winner-transnational-crime/)

El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele: Strong and Getting Stronger

Tue, 23 Feb 2021 15:45:16 -0500

In the year since President Nayib Bukele marched soldiers into El Salvador’s legislative assembly, his critics say the leader’s threat to democracy has only grown. Now, as legislative elections on Feb. 28 promise Bukele a long-awaited majority, there are fears about what that could mean for checks and balances. In the latest episode of the AQ Podcast, guest host Brendan O’Boyle speaks to lawyer and researcher Claudia Umaña about the election’s stakes, Bukele’s resilient support, and the implications of a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Claudia Umaña is vice president of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES)-Brendan O’Boyle is senior editor of Americas QuarterlySupplemental Reading:"Surprise: El Salvador’s Anti-Corruption Commission Is Alive. But Can It Succeed?" by Noah Bullock and Chuck Call(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/surprise-el-salvadors-anti-corruption-commission-is-alive-but-can-it-succeed/)"Behind Nayib Bukele’s 'Shocking' Turn" by Brendan O'Boyle(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-nayib-bukeles-shocking-turn/)"Q&A: Why El Salvador’s Crisis Is Different – and Worrying" by Brian Winter(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/qa-why-el-salvadors-crisis-is-different-and-worrying/)

A Tale of Two Colombias

Thu, 04 Feb 2021 10:57:15 -0500

Colombia reported some good news in 2020: The country’s homicide rate was its lowest in nearly five decades. But continued violence in rural communities – and a pandemic that is emboldening organized crime – has darkened the mood for many. Veteran foreign correspondent John Otis joins the podcast from Bogotá to break down what’s happening in the countryside and the implications for President Duque – and the coming contest to name his successor.Guests:- John Otis reports from Bogotá for NPR and The Wall Street Journal and is a consultant for the Committee to Protect Journalists.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"School’s Out in Most of Latin America. Gangs Are Thrilled." by John Otis(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/schools-out-in-latin-america-gangs-are-thrilled/)"The Urgent Need to Reform Colombia’s Security Policies" by Juan Pappier(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-urgent-need-to-reform-colombias-security-policies/)

What to Know About Ecuador's Election

Thu, 21 Jan 2021 15:48:16 -0500

There are 16 candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election scheduled for Feb. 7, but polls suggest voters aren’t too excited about any of them. Whoever they settle on will have to work overtime to manage a country battered by a pandemic and a fiscal crisis. Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado joins the podcast to assess the country’s outlook and the leading presidential candidates, including a protégé of Former President Rafael Correa, the “incumbent” candidate who’s never been president, and the “outsider” who could surprise everyone.Guests:- Sebastián Hurtado is the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Ecuador"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-ecuador/)"Who Is Andrés Arauz, Rafael Correa’s Pick to Lead Ecuador?" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://americasquarterly.org/article/andres-arauz-correa-proxy-or-new-leadership-for-ecuador/)

Latin America and Joe Biden in 2021

Thu, 07 Jan 2021 12:02:57 -0500

After a year like 2020, no one can confidently predict what the next 12 months will bring Latin America. What's clear, however, is that 2021 may be as transformative for the region as 2020 - for better or worse. The Council on Foreign Relation's Shannon O'Neil joins AQ's Brian Winter to preview the developments to watch in the new year, including the challenges of vaccine distribution, the questions looming over this year's critical elections, and the potential for collaboration with a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Shannon O’Neil is vice president and senior fellow for Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"A Less Apocalyptic Case for Latin America," by Brian Winter(https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-less-apocalyptic-case-for-latin-america/)

Bolivia: Surprising Reasons for Optimism

Wed, 09 Dec 2020 16:52:32 -0500

When Luis Arce swore in as Bolivia's president a month ago, he confronted a dizzying host of challenges: a public health emergency, a polarized electorate, and an economy crippled by the pandemic. But Arce's first weeks in office have left many cautiously optimistic, including journalist Raúl Peñaranda, who sees the emergence of a "minimalistic" government that's less vengeful than he expected. On this week's podcast, Peñaranda discusses Arce's first month, the return of Evo Morales, the encouraging judicial reforms on the horizon, and the challenges of vaccine distribution and getting kids back in school.Guests:-Raúl Peñaranda is a Bolivian journalist and director of the news portal Brújula Digital.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Will Luis Arce Rebuild Bolivia’s Broken Judiciary?"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-luis-arce-rebuild-bolivias-broken-judiciary/)

The Mexico-US Relationship After Cienfuegos

Tue, 24 Nov 2020 14:28:09 -0500

The arrest – and return – of General Salvador Cienfuegos by U.S. authorities were both surprising developments in what has already turned out to be an unpredictable U.S.-Mexico relationship under Presidents Donald Trump and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But a “reevaluation of the Mexican approach” is likely in store when the Joe Biden administration takes over, says the Wilson Center’s Duncan Wood.Guests:-Duncan Wood is director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Latin America’s Militaries Are Back. What Does it Mean?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/new-aq-latin-americas-militaries-are-back-what-does-it-mean/)

Brazil's Bolsonaro Faces Life After Trump

Tue, 10 Nov 2020 16:35:24 -0500

Joe Biden - not Donald Trump - will be the next U.S. president. What does that mean for Trump's biggest fan in South America, Jair Bolsonaro? How might a Biden victory change Brazil's relationship with China? AQ columnist Oliver Stuenkel joins editor-in-chief Brian Winter to break down what life after Trump could really mean for the Brazilian president and his base.Guests:-Oliver Stuenkel is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly and teaches international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Why a Trump Defeat Would Be a Disaster for Bolsonaro" by Oliver Stuenkel(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-a-trump-defeat-would-be-a-disaster-for-bolsonaro/)"Joe Biden Answers 10 Questions on Latin America"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/updated-2020-candidates-answer-10-questions-on-latin-america/)

Chile’s Road Ahead to a New Constitution

Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:04:57 -0400

Chileans voted overwhelmingly to embark on what will be a long, expensive and imperfect journey to a new constitution. Despite the challenges, there's plenty of reason for optimism, says author and journalist Paula Schmidt. AQ's Brian Winter spoke with Schmidt about what we can expect next, the new constitution's potential to help close Chile's gender gap, and the marginalized community that Schmidt fears is being left out of the process.Guests:-Paula Schmidt is a journalist, a columnist in the digital newspaper El Líbero, and a professor at Chile’s Universidad de Los Andes.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"The Politics of Chile’s New Constitution" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-politics-of-chiles-new-constitution/)

What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Latin America

Thu, 15 Oct 2020 15:43:56 -0400

Like his presidency in general, Donald Trump’s relationship with Latin America has not been without surprises. Among them: his unexpectedly close relationship with some of the region’s key leaders. But how have US-Latin America relations really changed under Trump – and where might they be headed if Trump surprises again and wins reelection? Juan Cruz, a former special advisor to the president, gave AQ’s Brian Winter an insider’s view on Trump’s approach to the region.Guests:- Juan Cruz is a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and the former point person on Latin America at the National Security Council under President Trump.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlySupplemental Listening:"AQ Podcast: What a Biden Presidency Would Mean for Latin America"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-what-a-biden-presidency-would-mean-for-latin-america/)

Argentina’s Post-COVID Consensus Is Unraveling

Wed, 30 Sep 2020 15:53:06 -0400

The early days of the pandemic saw Argentines rally around their new president, Alberto Fernández. But “those days are over,” says pollster Alejandro Catterberg, who points to a resurgence in polarization as COVID cases spread and the economy sinks deeper into recession. That’s bad news for the half of the country that wants to move past the divisive politics of former Presidents Mauricio Macri and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, said Catterberg, who spoke to AQ’s Brian Winter from Buenos Aires.Guests:- Alejandro Catterberg is founder and director of Poliarquía Consultores, an Argentine polling firm.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Background Reading:"After the Default: Argentina’s Unsustainable '20/80' Economy" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/after-the-default-argentinas-unsustainable-20-80-economy/)

Venezuela's Opposition Looks for a Plan

Thu, 17 Sep 2020 17:34:36 -0400

Amid a pandemic and ongoing food shortages, politics isn't exactly the top priority for many Venezuelans. But fresh divisions within the country's opposition are likely to have significant repercussions on how the coalition engages with the Nicolas Maduro regime. On this week's podcast, AQ's Brian Winter spoke to the Washington Post's Ana Vanessa Herrero about the opposition's changing dynamics and diverging plans.Guests:- Ana Vanessa Herrero is a correspondent for the Washington Post based in Caracas, Venezuela.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

The Lozoya Case Shaking Mexico: What to Expect

Thu, 03 Sep 2020 16:21:00 -0400

The corruption case against former Pemex CEO Emilio Lozoya has turned Mexican business and politics upside down. But how much will the case ultimately change - and for whom? Transparencia Mexicana's Eduardo Bohórquez joined AQ's Brian Winter to plot out where Latin America's latest big corruption scandal may lead.Guests:- Eduardo Bohórquez is the executive director of Transparencia Mexicana. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Finding Nuance in Brazil's Crisis

Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:46:53 -0400

The situation in Brazil "feels pretty bad right now," says Arminio Fraga, a policy expert and former central bank chief. But on the podcast this week, Fraga sees reason for a nuanced discussion. He spoke to AQ's Brian Winter about the government's big pandemic spending, how to strengthen Brazil's health care system, and why he considers himself a "progressive liberal type."Guests:- Arminio Fraga is the chair of the Institute for Health Policy Studies (IEPS)and a former president of Brazil’s central bank.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Background reading:"Despite Troubles, Brazil’s SUS Health System Can Be a Model for Latin America," by Arminio Fraga, Miguel Lago and Rudi Rocha (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/5-big-ideas-universal-health/)

What a Biden Presidency Would Mean for Latin America

Tue, 28 Jul 2020 08:34:12 -0400

"The countries of the hemisphere are at an inflection point," writes Juan S. Gonzalez, a former special advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, in a new op-ed for AQ. Gonzalez spoke to AQ's Brian Winter about how a Biden administration might lead the region in confronting challenges like COVID-19, climate change and democratic instability, with insight into how Biden might engage Nicolás Maduro and why the presidential contender sees Colombia as the "keystone to the region."Guests:- Juan S. Gonzalez is a principal at JSG Strategy and a former special advisor to Vice President Joe Biden.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Background Reading:"Joe Biden and the Future of the Americas," by Juan S. Gonzalez (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/joe-biden-and-the-future-of-the-americas/)"Miller Versus Biden: Competing U.S. Doctrines for Latin America," by Russell Crandall (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/miller-versus-biden-competing-u-s-doctrines-for-latin-america/)"The Incredible Unknown Bond between Joe Biden and Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff," by Brian Winter (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-incredible-unknown-bond-between-joe-biden-and-brazils-dilma-rousseff/)

Latin America's Cities Are Changing – Maybe Forever

Thu, 16 Jul 2020 15:30:19 -0400

Today, the density and informality that often define Latin American cities have made them particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus. But that doesn't mean their future is a bleak one, says Eugene Zapata Garesché of the Global Resilient Cities Network. The urban development expert spoke to AQ's Brian Winter about the ways cities are changing, and how good local leadership has never been so important.Guests: - Eugene Zapata Garesché is the managing director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Global Resilient Cities Network- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlyBackground reading:"Could the Pandemic Start a Biking Revolution in Latin America?" by Leonie Rauls (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/could-the-pandemic-start-a-biking-revolution-in-latin-america/)

Grading Iván Duque’s Pandemic Politics

Wed, 01 Jul 2020 12:33:48 -0400

Colombia has seen relative success controlling the outbreak of COVID-19, providing a needed boost in citizens’ confidence in President Iván Duque. But that could be changing. This week, AQ‘s Editor-in-chief Brian Winter speaks with political analyst Laura Gil about his initial response, recent slip-ups, and why Colombia’s fragile peace process is “on life support.”Guests:- Laura Gil leads the consultancy Diálogos y Estrategias, and is director of the political analysis site La Línea del Medio.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Background reading:"Colombia Needs to Think Bigger to Escape Crisis," by Luis Fernando Mejía(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/colombias-way-out-of-the-crisis/)"What Colombia’s Record Says About COVID-19 Testing," by Luis Guillermo Plata (https://americasquarterly.org/article/what-colombias-covid-strategy-says-about-testing/)"Trump, Venezuela and the ELN: The Geopolitics of Peace in Colombia," by BY Karen Arteaga Garzón, Gwen Burnyeat, Andrei Gómez-Suárez and Germán Otálora Gallego (https://americasquarterly.org/article/trump-venezuela-and-the-eln-the-geopolitics-of-peace-in-colombia/)

Bolivia's Polarizing Political Crisis Rolls On

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 16:50:33 -0400

Jeanine Áñez ascended to Bolivia's presidency on a promise to hold elections that could move the country out of a bitter political crisis. Seven months later, uncertainty lingers over when voters will choose a new government. To get some clarity on the state of things, AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter speaks with award-winning journalist Raúl Peñaranda.Guests:- Raúl Peñaranda is the director of the Bolivian news portal Brújula Digital, recipient of the coveted Maria Moors Cabot prize and a Nieman fellowship at Harvard University. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Background reading:"Four Urgent Questions on Bolivia’s Election," by Brendan O'Boyle (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/four-urgent-questions-on-bolivias-election/)"The Cost of Delayed Votes in Chile, Bolivia and Beyond," by Leonie Rauls and Emilie Sweigart (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-cost-of-delayed-votes-in-chile-bolivia-and-beyond/)

Riots in the U.S. and Aftershocks in Latin America

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 16:26:26 -0400

Scenes of rioting and police brutality in the U.S. are a reminder of the deepening crisis across the Americas. Pressures on civil liberties are already high across the region, with fears that leaders may be using the pandemic as a pretext for harsh policies. To discuss the state of human rights in the Americas at this tense time, AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter speaks to Human Rights Watch's José Miguel Vivanco.Guests: José Miguel Vivanco is the Americas director at Human Rights Watch.Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Another Default? What It Means for Argentina

Wed, 20 May 2020 09:01:15 -0400

For the third time in just two decades, Argentina finds itself on the brink of defaulting on its foreign debt. As the government rushes to reach a deal with creditors, AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter speaks to the Woodrow Wilson Center's Benjamin Gedan about the implications of a default on Argentina's fragile economy and rocky political landscape. Guests: - Benjamin Gedan is the deputy director the Wilson Center's Latin American Program and the director of its Argentina Project. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Background Reading:"Argentina Can Stop Its March Toward Default," by Arturo Porzecanski (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/argentina-can-stop-its-march-toward-default/)

Frontline Doctors on COVID-19’s Lessons for Latin America

Thu, 07 May 2020 17:01:00 -0400

As it tears through Latin America, the coronavirus has highlighted both the impact of smart governance, as well as the toll of the region’s inequality. On the Americas Quarterly Podcast, Editor-in-chief Brian Winter speaks to doctors on the frontlines of the crisis about what they’re seeing, what they’ve learned about prevention, and how they envision a more equitable healthcare system.Guests:Dr. Enrique Boloña is the director of the intensive care unit at Clínica Guayaquil.Dr. David Acuña is an emergency room doctor at Hospital Clínico de la Universidad Católica and at Hospital Sótero del Río in Santiago, Chile.Dr. Sidney Klajner is a surgeon and president of Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein in São Paulo, Brazil. Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Is Jair Bolsonaro's Government Doomed?

Tue, 28 Apr 2020 13:52:06 -0400

The resignation of Brazil's popular Justice Minister Sérgio Moro shook Brazilian politics on April 24, but its ripples are still being felt. Political analyst Thomas Traumann joins AQ's Brian Winter to discuss the behind-the-scenes maneuvering that may have led to Moro's demise. They'll also assess the likelihood of impeachment and the future of Finance Minister Paulo Guedes, whose motivations for staying on the job seem less clear than they did a month ago.Guests:- Thomas Traumann is a Rio de Janeiro-based political analyst and author of O Pior Emprego do Mundo (“The Worst Job in the World”), a book about Brazilian finance ministers.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Background reading:"The Key to Bolsonaro’s Survival," by Brian Winter (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/key-bolsonaro%27s-survival)

Colombia and Peru's Struggle to Protect Venezuelans

Thu, 23 Apr 2020 17:54:52 -0400

Colombia and Peru have taken in more Venezuelan migrants than any other country. But as the coronavirus spreads, the story of their warm welcome threatens to become one of xenophobia and exclusion. What are governments doing to prevent that? How is the pandemic changing life on the ground for migrants in Colombia and Peru? AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter discussed the challenging situation with Feline Freier, a migration expert in Lima, and Lala Lovera, a migrant advocate in Bogotá.Guests:Lala Lovera is the founder of the Fundación Comparte por una Vida ColombiaLuisa Feline Freier is a migration expert and an assistant professor at the Universidad del Pacífico in LimaBrian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlyBackground reading:- "NEW AQ: The Urgent Effort to Integrate Latin America's Migrants" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/migration-leader)"For Migrants in Latin America, Public Health Risks Go Beyond the Coronavirus," by Luisa Feline Freier (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/risks-public-health-migration)- "The Backlash to Venezuelan Migration Is Here," by Brian Winter (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/explosive-politics-migration)

Mexico's Conservative Response to COVID-19

Fri, 17 Apr 2020 09:45:32 -0400

As other Latin American governments pass big stimulus packages to fight the COVID-19 outbreak, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has opted for austerity. Why? Is there any chance he changes his mind? Vanessa Rubio Márquez, a senator and Mexico's former undersecretary of finance and public credit, spoke to AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter about the response so far - and a different path forward.

Can China Save Latin America Again?

Thu, 09 Apr 2020 16:55:49 -0400

China was instrumental in helping Latin America weather the last global financial crisis. Can it do so again? The coming recession could offer the superpower a new opportunity to build influence in Latin America. But this isn't 2008, says China-Latin America expert Margaret Myers, and the regional relationship is a lot more complicated. Myers joined AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter to discuss what China wants in Latin America, and what the pandemic changes.Guests:Margaret Myers is the director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue.Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlyBackground reading:"Could China Be a White Knight Again for Latin America?" by Margaret Myers and Kevin P. Gallagher (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/could-china-be-white-knight-again-latin-america) "The Reasons for China's Cooling Interest in Latin America" by Margaret Myers (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/how-beijing-sees-it)

The Hard Choices Facing Brazil's Government

Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:42:53 -0400

Governments across Latin America are urgently trying to find the right balance between protecting jobs and protecting public health. Perhaps nowhere has the debate been as contentious as in Brazil, where the president has said the country needs to protect jobs, not practice social distancing. But is this a false choice? Brazilian economist Monica de Bolle joins AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter to discuss how Brazil can contain the virus, as well as the economic fallout. Background reading:- "How to Think About the Lockdown Decision in Latin America," by Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Andrés Malamud (https://bit.ly/3aCyW2R)- "Bolsonaro Faces His Biggest Crisis - And Is Struggling" by Oliver Stuenkel (https://bit.ly/2JEQRKl)

The Coronavirus' Economic Toll on Latin America

Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:33:01 -0400

The coronavirus has sent a devastating shock throughout the global economy. How vulnerable is Latin America? Which countries are best prepared to handle it? AQ's Editor-in-chief Brian Winter discusses the region’s response with the Council on Foreign Relations' Shannon O'Neil. Background reading:1) "Latin America, With Few Bullets to Spare," by Eduardo Levy Yeyati (shorturl.at/HKNV0)2) "Latin America 'Needs Fiscal Stimulus Today,' Mauricio Cárdenas Says," by Leonie Rauls (shorturl.at/FTW04) 3) "Is Mexico Prepared to Confront Coronavirus?" by Nathaniel Parish Flannery (shorturl.at/ADGJ9)

Chile’s Constitution Gamble

Thu, 05 Mar 2020 17:25:32 -0500

Polls show Chile wants to replace its dictatorship-era constitution. But is a new constitution what’s best for Chile? Patricio Navia, an AQ columnist and political scientist at NYU, says it’s not. In the inaugural episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, Navia joins AQ Editor-in-chief Brian Winter to talk about the risks of starting from scratch.The Americas Quarterly Podcast is a new production of Americas Quarterly. For more information, check out AmericasQuarterly.orgBackground reading1. Chile’s Riots: Frustration at the Gate of the Promised Land, by Patricio Navia https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/chiles-riots-frustration-gate-promised-land2. Trapped: What If Chile Ends Up Like Argentina? by Eduardo Levy Yeyati (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/trapped-what-if-chile-ends-argentina)3. Chile Is About to Make a Huge Mistake, by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/chile-about-make-huge-mistake)