The U.S. reports striking thousands of targets in Iran during the first week of the conflict and damaging or destroying more than 40 Iranian naval vessels. In response, Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched missiles and drones across more than ten countries in the region. 

Energy infrastructure across the Middle East has also been targeted, including facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Some regional producers have shut in oil production due to export disruptions, full storage tanks, and, in some cases, damaged facilities. 

Tankers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and LNG trade normally pass. The U.S. has offered naval escorts and a $20 billion tanker reinsurance program to restore shipping, but tankers are not moving yet. WTI briefly surged to about US$118 per barrel on March 9, before easing, amid reports that the G7 was considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and comments from the US President suggesting that the conflict could be nearing an end. 

Jackie and Peter also explore potential winners from the crisis, including renewable energy and other alternatives, electric vehicles (EVs), Russia, and possibly Canada, particularly if Canada can expand market access and increase oil and gas production. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Financial Times: G7 discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves (March 9, 2026) 
• Polymarket: US X Iran cease-fire by….  
• CBC: Nervous nations calling Canada's energy minister after Iran strikes (March 3, 2026) 

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Iran responded aggressively, targeting a range of military, civilian, and energy infrastructure across nine countries at the time of recording. Energy facilities have been hit, including a refinery in Saudi Arabia and LNG export facilities in Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and a key corridor for Qatar’s LNG exports, is effectively blocked. Shipping companies and insurers are unwilling to risk moving through the narrow chokepoint amid ongoing missile and drone attacks in the region. Several tankers have also reportedly been struck. 

As a result, oil and natural gas prices have risen. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, even higher prices are expected. 

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Josef Schachter, President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. They discuss the recent events, oil prices, available spare production capacity, and inventories, and what these developments could mean for the Canadian oil and gas industry. 

Content referenced on this podcast:

• Learn more about the Schachter Energy Report and the Eye on Energy Report 

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To explore this question, our guest this week is Sean Strickland, Executive Director of Canada’s Building Trades Unions. Canada’s Building Trades Unions is the voice of the country’s construction workers, representing more than 600,000 skilled tradespeople across Canada. 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Sean: What is the current situation- do we have a shortage or an excess of trade workers? How might that change if all the projects being advanced by the Major Projects Office (MPO) move into construction over the next few years? How mobile is the labour force, and are there policy changes that could improve labour mobility? Are temporary foreign workers still available if Canadian labour becomes stretched thin? What are the demographics of the current workforce? What is it like to work on industrial projects in remote regions, including both the sacrifices and the rewards? How can workforce planning be done when the number of projects that will ultimately proceed remains highly uncertain?

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Jackie Forrest moderated a sold-out session featuring award-winning author Edward Fishman, whose recent book Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, explores the rise of U.S. geoeconomic strategy. Mr. Fishman is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and an Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. 

Joining the discussion was Robert (RJ) Johnston, Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. 

The conversation explores a wide range of issues, including the United States’ use of tariffs as a tool of economic warfare, the potential for expanded investment and trade between Canada and China, how such a shift might be viewed by the U.S., and key lessons from American intervention in Venezuela. The panel also discusses the prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whether a weakening U.S. dollar could diminish America’s ability to deploy economic statecraft, and, finally, whether China’s growing self-sufficiency could ultimately reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and leverage. 

The episode concludes with Peter and Jackie sharing their reflections on the discussion, offering their own perspectives, and examining the issues through a Canadian lens. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Peter Tertzakian’s article on why Canada must act with urgency to diversify its export markets, “Oil, Mercantilism, and the Return of Gunboat Economics” (January 12, 2025) 
• Edward Fishman’s article on how Europe should handle Donald Trump’s threats, “Want to stop Trump bullying your country? Retaliate” (February 8, 2026) 
• Peter Tertzakian’s article, “The Cost of Being a Market Hostage,” (September 8, 2025)

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The conversation begins with an overview of green hydrogen–derived products, including e-methane, e-methanol, and green ammonia. Brandon explains why e-methanol is emerging as a leading end-use for green-hydrogen-derived fuels, particularly for marine shipping and aviation. 

The discussion then turns to Canada’s competitive advantages in producing e-fuels, including access to low-carbon grid electricity in Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia, as well as the Canadian Investment Tax Credits (ITCs). With the United States rolling back support for green hydrogen in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) last summer, Brandon notes that Canada currently holds a policy advantage in North America. However, global competition remains strong, particularly from India, China, and the Middle East, where cost structures are advantaged. 

For Canada to remain globally competitive in green hydrogen-derived products, Brandon outlines several changes he believes are needed to Canada’s existing ITC framework. These include:

• Allowing access to the full green hydrogen ITC when grid power is more than 90% non-emitting 
• Extending eligibility to downstream equipment, including e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, consistent with how ammonia is treated  
• Allowing the use of carbon dioxide in fuel production to qualify for the carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) ITC

The episode concludes with a deeper dive into the Varennes project, including the potential for local job creation and the anticipated timing for a final investment decision and first production. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• S&P Canadian Electric Car Insights to Q3 2025 (Dec 2025) 
• StormFisher Hydrogen’s website 
• Learn more about StormFisher’s low-carbon methanol project in Varennes, Quebec 

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They begin by discussing Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest “Energy Transition Investment Trends (2026)”, which finds that global investment in the energy transition reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8 % from 2024. 

Next, they review a set of charts from a 200-slide deck released by Nat Bullard, an annual presentation on the state of decarbonization. Nat describes himself as a “climate-focused keynote speaker, board-level strategist, consultant, and advisor.”  His side deck provides a comprehensive overview of the latest data across a wide range of energy types. 

Finally, the hosts discuss a couple of new papers by Peter Tertzakian: one titled “Venezuela’s Fiscal Competitiveness” and another called “Oil, Mercantilism, and the Return of Gunboat Economics”. In this segment, they debate the impact of Venezuela’s high government take, which has contributed to declining production, and consider recent reforms to the country’s oil and gas sector aimed at attracting foreign investment.

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They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s recent speech at Davos. Next, they review recent developments in Canadian carbon policy, including the Canada–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed on November 27, 2025, in which both governments agreed to work toward an oil pipeline to reach Asian markets. The MOU also outlines a plan to develop a revised industrial carbon pricing policy and methane regulations by April 1, 2026. Not long after the MOU was signed, in December 2025, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), a federal agency, issued final methane regulations that conflict with the MOU, with one requiring an end date of 2030 and the other 2035.  Further to this, ECCC released a discussion paper in December titled “Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada”, asking for feedback by January 30, 2026, on potential changes to Canada’s carbon markets, which are also being modified as part of the Canada-Alberta MOU by April 1. 

Jackie, Peter, and Marcus discuss what “carbon competitiveness” means and how Canadians should think about it in a changing global energy landscape. They also share concerns about the carbon market discussion paper and new methane regulations. 

Content referenced on this podcast:

• Discussion Paper: Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada. Send your feedback to ECCC before January 30, 2026, by emailing: tarificationducarbone-carbonpricing@ec.gc.ca 
• Final Methane Regulations: Canada Gazette, Part II, Volume 159, Number 27 

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We begin by walking through Rob’s Top Ten Themes for Energy in 2026, including the continued steady growth in global oil demand, a waning focus on net zero, EVs, and decarbonization. With that lens, we also discuss Canada’s Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Rob then shares his bullish outlook for LNG demand growth, with positive implications for Canada’s aspiration to grow LNG exports. Rob also argues that there is a growing investment case for grid-enhancing technologies to increase the utilization of existing infrastructure and meet rising electricity loads. We also touch on the outlook for copper demand driven by electrification, robotics, and AI data centers, as well as Rob’s expectations for electricity load growth, which are more conservative than some other forecasts. 

Finally, Rob and Jackie revisit Jackie’s “doomsday” scenario: what it would actually cost to back up her home during an extended power outage, comparing options such as using stored power from an electric vehicle, a home battery, and a natural gas generator. 

Content referenced on this podcast:

• Sign up for Rob’s daily note at his website, https://thundersaidenergy.com/ 
• Ten Themes for Energy in 2026 from Thunder Said Energy (January 1, 2026) 
• Rob’s video: US load growth: unpopular opinions (September 3, 2025) 

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This week, Peter and Jackie kick off the year with their 2026 outlook. They begin by asking a fundamental question: How relevant are predictions in an increasingly unpredictable world? 

While acknowledging the limits of forecasting, they outline key themes and directional expectations for 2026—and remind leaders that, in times like these, scenario development, continuous monitoring, and course correction are far more valuable than rigid forecasts. 

The discussion focuses on four major areas shaping the outlook for Canadian energy, spanning oil and gas and clean energy technologies: 

• Global geopolitics and energy markets: examining how unfolding events in Venezuela and Iran—and ongoing tensions involving the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine—could influence global energy markets. 
• Oil and gas fundamentals: assessing the direction of oil prices and North American natural gas in 2026. 
• Technology and disruption: exploring whether electric vehicles will regain momentum, how rapidly solar deployment will continue to scale, and whether projections for AI-driven energy demand will keep accelerating. 
• Canada’s unique circumstances: politics, policy, and infrastructure—from climate policy and the Ottawa–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an oil pipeline, to elections (and potential elections) to watch. 

While predicting the future may be difficult, one thing Jackie and Peter are confident about is that the ARC Energy Ideas podcast will be here throughout the year—helping you navigate what is shaping up to be a consequential and eventful year for energy markets and geopolitics. 

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Peter and Jackie open with a discussion of the geopolitical backdrop and the range of narratives circulating about the U.S. motivations for seizing and arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, including efforts to curb drug trafficking and illegal migration, and to counter the growing influence of China, Russia, and terrorist groups in the country. They also reference the U.S. National Security Strategy released in November 2025, which calls for a Western Hemisphere free from hostile foreign control and signals renewed enforcement of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. 

The Monroe Doctrine is a foundational principle of U.S. foreign policy, first announced in 1823, that set out the United States' view of the Western Hemisphere.  General principles at the time held that European powers should no longer interfere in the Americas and that the Western Hemisphere was now the U.S. sphere of influence. 

Peter and Jackie then turn to the oil market implications for Canadian oil. If sanctions on Venezuela were eased, increased Venezuelan heavy oil exports to the U.S. could intensify competition for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 10% of Canada’s crude oil exports. The exports to Canada’s largest market, the U.S. Midwest, which makes up 70% of all exports, are more insulated. 

The discussion concludes with an assessment of potential Venezuelan production scenarios, including the possibility of declining output, a pattern that has frequently followed similar government changes in the past. They conclude that, in any scenario, a clear takeaway for Canada is that building additional West Coast pipelines is critical. Diversifying export markets, strengthening economic resilience, and improving national sovereignty and autonomy are imperatives for Canada.

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2025 delivered volatility and plenty of surprises, along with a long list of developments with real consequences for energy, both clean energy and traditional oil and gas. We cover major policy shifts, including the election of the Mark Carney Liberals in Canada, the introduction of Bill C-5, the launch of the Major Projects Office, the Ottawa–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and growing political support for LNG. 

We also review changes in the United States, including tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which rolled back many of America’s generous clean energy subsidies.  

Another recurring theme this year was the surge in expectations for AI data center electricity demand—including in Canada, where three proposed projects in Alberta are moving closer to a final investment decision.

It’s been a whirlwind year. Jackie and Peter wish everyone a wonderful holiday break, and we’ll return in 2026.

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• The Hub.ca, Have we really hit peak oil? Please don’t count on it (December 2, 2025) 
• National Security Strategy of the United States of America (November 2025)

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Jackie and Peter asked Chris a wide-ranging set of questions, including: What was going through your mind as the first carrier departed? What does the workforce on-site look like today, and are workers living locally or in camps? What are the practical logistics of bringing LNG tankers in and out of the facility and navigating the Douglas Channel? Is the plant operating at full capacity yet? How would you characterize the current level of support from the B.C. provincial government? How significant was Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to Asia to sell Canada’s potential for LNG growth, and what did it mean to see LNG Canada Phase 2 included among the projects that were referred to the Major Projects Office? Finally, how does Canadian LNG stack up against other global supply sources, and what do you see as the outlook for worldwide LNG demand? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Steven Guilbeault Speaks to CTV’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos (December 4, 2025) 
• Clean Prosperity study that the Federal-Alberta MOU can unlock $90 billion in low-carbon investment if governments follow through (December 4, 2025) 
• Photos of the LNG Canada work camp at Cedar Valley Lodge 
• Shell LNG Outlook 2025

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Building the pipeline requires building the large-scale oil sands Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Alberta and the federal government will also engage with the Government of British Columbia on the pipeline initiative. 

Among other commitments, the MOU pledges to suspend the Canadian Electricity Regulations (CER) as they apply to Alberta and to scrap the proposed nationwide oil and gas emissions cap for producers. Further details are expected to be finalized by April 1. 

To unpack this tectonic shift in Alberta–Ottawa relations—along with the first wave of media coverage and the deal’s potential benefits for Canada —Peter and Jackie are joined by guest Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (November 27, 2025) 
• Angus Reid Institute Polling on Support and Opposition for Alberta-BC Pipeline (November 27, 2025) 
• CBC At Issues Panel on Carney’s Alberta Pipeline Partnership (November 28, 2025)

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To unpack the findings and the broader state of renewables in Canada, we’re joined by Leonard Kula (Vice President of Policy – Eastern Canada and Utility Affairs, CanREA), Ahmed Hanafy (Partner, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors), and Vittoria Bellissimo (President and CEO, CanREA). 

Peter and Jackie asked our guests: What are your expectations for growth in Canadian electricity demand through 2035 and 2050? How does demand from AI data centers contribute? As intermittent renewable generation rises, do you see technical limits, such as reliability, that put a ceiling on growth?  Do project developers source the wind turbines and solar modules from China, and should Canada push for more domestic content? Do renewables face issues with “not in my backyard” (NIMBYism)? Can renewables contribute meaningfully to meeting the fast-growing demand from data centers, which need near-perfect levels of reliability? Do you expect renewable energy growth in Alberta, given the market changes that have weakened the investment case?  

Content referenced in this podcast includes:

• Bell: Go time! Danielle Smith and Mark Carney agree to a pipeline deal - Calgary Herald (November 22, 2025)

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They then turn to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, which reintroduces the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) after a five-year hiatus. The CPS examines how global energy demand evolves under existing policies and shows oil and gas consumption continuing to grow through 2050. The report also highlights the energy requirements of rapidly expanding AI data centers. Jackie and Peter debate how this surge in load will be met—and which energy sources are most likely to power it. 

Content referenced in this podcast includes:

• Prime Minister Carney announces second tranche of nation-building projects referred to the Major Projects Office (November 13, 2025) 
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 (November 12, 2025) 
• Open Circuit Podcast (November 7, 2025) 
• The Stargate Project (January 2025) 
• How Meta’s Data Centers Drive Economic Growth Across the US (November 7, 2025) 
• US electric vehicle sales slow as Trump champions petrol (November 13, 2025) 

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They discuss several aspects of the budget, including the size of the deficit and debt, government plans to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, and several tax measures—notably, new Productivity Super Deduction and the updated accelerated capital cost depreciation rules for LNG, which are supportive, but still less generous than the Productivity Super Reduction. 

They also examine the introduction of new investment tax credits (ITCs) for clean energy. These incentives were largely anticipated, having been announced in the previous budget but never enacted. 

A major focus is the proposed Canada Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen industrial carbon pricing while preventing carbon leakage. Jackie and Peter explore related policy commitments, including maintaining methane-reduction regulations and the Clean Electricity Regulation, along with signals of possible flexibility around the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. However, they note that such flexibility may depend on the deployment at scale of carbon capture and storage, which remains uncertain.

Content referenced in this podcast includes: 

• Canada Budget 2025 
• Bill Gates Memo “Three tough truths about climate”  (October 2025) 
• The Hub.ca article by Trevor Tombe “There’s a big gap between rhetoric and reality” (November 2025) 

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A new report from CanREA and Dunsky forecasts a rapid build-out of new electricity generation across the country. With this growth forecast in mind, Jason shares his insights on several major new electricity generation projects shaping Canada’s power landscape — including the planned hydropower dam expansion along the Churchill River by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. 

Jason, Jackie, and Peter also discussed the proposed Wind West project in Nova Scotia, where the province estimates its offshore wind potential could exceed 60 GW of capacity, with up to 40 GW of dependable output.  

In addition, Jason provides an update on Alberta’s ongoing electricity market redesign — the Alberta Restructured Energy Market (REM) — following the release of the Final Design document from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in August. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• Canada’s Renewable Energy Outlook 2025 by CanREA and Dunsky  
• Wind West Plan by the Nova Scotia Government  
• Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) Restructure Energy Market Final Design (August 2025) 
• Alberta Electricity System Operator “MPA Independent Assessment of the REM Design” (August 2025)

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They then turn to the upcoming federal budget, which is expected to include details about Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Plan. Another key topic is President Trump’s decision to suspend trade talks with Canada following controversy over Ontario’s free-trade advertisement. 

Next, the hosts reflect on Peter’s recent commentary in The Hub, titled “Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” 

Finally, Jackie talks about her recent appearance on a CBC podcast that explored whether Canada can build pipelines while fighting climate change. She explains why she felt the show’s coverage was not balanced and shares her broader concerns about how climate and energy topics are often framed in mainstream Canadian media.

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• The Globe and Mail, “Carney’s climate vision is to deprioritize emissions targets, focus on economic advantages” (October 14, 2025) 
• The Hub “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” (October 4, 2025) 
• CAPP Data Centre, “The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas,” see slide 23 titled “Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry | 2024” 
• Government of Canada Publications, “Public Opinion Research on the National Adaptation Strategy,” (March 2025), see page 6: “A vast majority of people living in Canada (84%) consider climate change an important issue” 
• Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) 
• CBC Ideas Podcast “Can we have new pipelines and curb climate change too?” October 7, 2025

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To help us unpack the complexities of Canada’s pipeline politics, our guest this week is the Honourable Jason Kenney — former federal MP and cabinet minister (first elected in 1997 and re-elected five times), former Premier of Alberta, and now a Special Advisor at Bennett Jones. 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jason Kenney: How did you manage to bring together Alberta’s fractured conservative movement, and do you think that unity could unravel given today’s polarized political climate? What are your thoughts on the “Alberta Next” initiative? What’s your assessment of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first six months in office and his efforts, such as Bill C-5, to accelerate infrastructure development? Under the Canadian constitution, can B.C. block an oil pipeline through the province? Why were you disappointed by the federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson’s, comments about B.C.’s attempts to block the oil pipeline? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) 
• Jason Kenney’s X account 

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Our guest this week is Photinie Koutsavlis, Vice President of Economic Affairs and Climate Change at the Mining Association of Canada. She joins us to discuss the current state of Canada’s mining industry. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Photinie Koutsavlis:  How large is Canada’s mining sector, and what are its main products? Since the January 2020 announcement of the Canada–U.S. Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals, what progress has been made on the ground? Has investment and production grown — and if not, what are the main barriers? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• The Hub.ca, “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what is next for the oil sands?” (October 4, 2025)

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Peter argues that Canada must raise its level of ambition to compete in today’s geoeconomic and geopolitical environment—one where markets are shaped less by free trade and more by state power, economic coercion, and the strategic use of industries to advance geopolitical objectives. In this new order, the effects of tariffs, sanctions, control of trade routes, and dominance over critical resources are felt daily on the global stage. 

Yet Canada is not showing up as a true contender. The country remains passive, heavily dependent on the United States for oil and gas exports, at significant cost to the economy. Peter outlines four levels of ambition that Canada could pursue. At the lowest level, the nation remains a “market hostage,” reflecting its current state in oil and gas. A modest step up would be the role of “competitor,” in which new tidewater export capacity expands Canada’s reach. Moving further, Canada could become a “negotiator,” able to leverage energy exports as a bargaining chip in international relations. At the highest level, Canada could aspire to be an “aggressor,” a country that wields genuine market power in vital resources—similar to the way China has achieved influence through state control of strategic industries. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• The Hub.ca, “Increasing Canada’s energy ambition is an economic and geopolitical imperative” (September 9, 2025) 
• Studio.Energy, “Geoeconomics and State Capitalism” and “The Cost of Being a Market Hostage” (September 8, 2025) 
• CTV News, “Here’s what the parliamentary budget officer is warning of ahead of the budget” (September 28, 2025) 
• CBC News, “Canada's GDP rebounds in July after contracting for 3 months” (September 26, 2025) 
• WSJ “Trump Takes Aim at Chip Makers With New Plan to Throttle Imports” (September 26, 2025) 

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Tamarack is a Canadian oil and gas company with operations in Alberta, including the Clearwater and Charlie Lake plays. Brian was also a signatory to a letter, alongside more than 90 leaders from Canadian oil and gas producers, service providers, and midstream companies, sent to Prime Minister Mark Carney on September 15, 2025. The letter called for policy changes to enable companies to make long-term investments in Canada’s energy sector. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Brian: What makes the Clearwater play unique? What technologies are being used to produce oil in the play, including secondary recovery methods such as waterflooding? What are the regulatory and permitting challenges that are slowing development? How does Tamarack prioritize between using cash for stock buybacks, production growth, or other uses of capital? Would investors be more inclined to fund production growth over shareholder returns if pipeline capacity and supportive policies were in place in Canada?  Other topics included whether ESG remains a focus for investors, how the anti-greenwashing provisions in Bill C-59 affect the industry, and whether the recent shift in tone from the federal government has improved sentiment toward Canadian oil and gas. They also discussed the ongoing consolidation in the sector, where smaller players are merging into larger companies. 

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 In recent weeks, the Canadian federal government has announced several initiatives to fast-track major projects, including the establishment of the Major Projects Office (MPO) and the announcement of the first five projects. 

Based on David’s experience in getting projects off the ground, both in government and now working with proponents, here are some of the questions we asked David:  How are environmental reviews for major LNG projects currently conducted in B.C., and which level of government—provincial or federal—takes the lead? What advice would you offer the newly appointed CEO of the MPO, Dawn Farrell, as she begins her new role?  In what ways have Indigenous rights in B.C. evolved over the past five or so years, and do projects now require Indigenous equity participation to get done?  Given that B.C.’s and Canada’s climate goals conflict with the acceleration of LNG exports, should GHG reduction targets be revised to attract more capital investment to B.C.? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Prime Minister Carney launches new Major Projects Office to fast-track nation-building projects (August 29, 2025) 
• Prime Minister Carney announces first projects to be reviewed by the new Major Projects Office (September 11, 2025) 
• Globe and Mail, “Internal government list of 32 potential infrastructure projects includes new oil pipeline” (September 4, 2025)

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Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Eric: How would you compare investing in Canadian oil and gas producers versus U.S. companies?  Do you still believe Canada is undervalued relative to the U.S., as you did when we spoke a few years ago? With OPEC announcing on September 7, 2025, that it will add even more supply to the market, why are oil prices remaining so resilient, and what is Saudi Arabia’s strategy? What are your expectations for North American natural gas prices, particularly in Canada, which has experienced exceptionally weak pricing this year? Canada has seen a wave of consolidation in the oil patch—how do you view corporate consolidation in this context? You have long advocated for oil and gas producers to buy back shares, but if Canada succeeds in building new export pipelines for oil and gas, would you support companies growing production to create value rather than relying solely on buybacks? How can new export pipelines be built if investors continue to prefer buybacks over growth? Finally, do you believe Canadian oil and gas companies still trade at a “green discount” due to climate policies that burden the sector?

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• Geoeconomics – recap examples where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs – as well as more moves towards state capitalism by the United States, where the government exercises more control over institutions and companies. 
• Canadian oil patch M&A news. 
• Updates regarding the federal government’s Bill C-5 and its plans for advancing nation-building projects. 
• Tariff negotiation tactics, including news that Canada is removing countervailing tariffs on the United States.  
• The United States is exerting more influence over the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the organization planning to reintroduce the Current Policies Scenario in the next World Energy Outlook to be released in the fall of 2025. 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• CTV, “Hodgeson ‘hopeful’ first batch of major projects announcements to start in the fall” (August 20, 2025) 
• Calgary Herald, “Varcoe: Carney has opened the door to Canadian LNG exports — one closed by Trudeau government, says Liberal natural resources minister” (August 27, 2025) 
• The Vassy Kapelos Show, “I know there are buyers: Federal Energy Minister bullish on LNG as a nation-building project” (August 12, 2025) 
• Oilprice.com, “Republicans Move to Cut U.S. Funding for the IEA” (July 24, 2025) 
• E&ENEWS by Politico, “Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official” (August 7, 2025) 

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Next, Peter and Jackie review the fundamentals of oil prices, the muted effect of the 12-day Iran-Israel war, and why oil prices have been creeping up despite weaker short-term fundamentals. Peter argues that the growing importance of “geoeconomics” - where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs - means that predicting oil prices will no longer be just about counting barrels. In the future, one of the most significant factors shaping oil markets will be the geoeconomic strategies of nations, including actions such as sanctions, tariffs, and withholding supply. 

Finally, Jackie and Peter discuss President Trump’s recent letters to numerous countries threatening higher tariffs effective August 1st, including a letter to Canada with 35% tariffs on Canadian goods. Washington also introduced global copper tariffs. 

This is the last podcast before a break; the podcast will resume at the end of summer. 

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Mike Carr, Executive Director at SEMA Coalition—an organization supporting the U.S.-based solar supply chain. Mike has extensive experience in U.S. federal energy policy, including past positions at the Department of Energy and the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy. 

Jackie and Peter asked Mike: How would you characterize the Bill’s impact on U.S. clean energy, and what damage has it caused? At a high level, does this major policy shift lessen the appetite for investment, even in areas where subsidies remain, due to concerns about political uncertainty? For clean technology manufacturing, such as solar panels, do the newly introduced restrictions on Foreign Entities of Concern (like China) regarding content, intellectual property, and investment make it more challenging to qualify for the production tax credit (45X)? Renewable energy projects that commence construction within a year of the Bill’s passage can still be eligible for subsidies for the following four years; does this create a construction boom, and what happens afterward? Given China’s dominant position in manufacturing many types of clean energy technology, how should the U.S. compete? Is it better to leapfrog China with innovation, rather than simply following and producing the same technology?

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Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Mark: How much do you expect to pay your shareholder (the Canadian Government) in 2025 and 2026? What are the logistics of moving the oil by tanker? Where are the tankers going, and what type of crude is shipped in the pipeline? How has the pipeline improved Canadian oil prices? What is the expected timing for a resolution on the tolls, as a Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) hearing is currently underway that could adjust the cost for shipping oil? What is the potential to increase pipeline flows, and is there potential for a northern leg as proposed in the early days of the expansion? The Federal Government has stated it plans to sell the pipeline; do you have any updates on that and the potential timing? What are your thoughts on Bill C-5 and the potential for this type of legislation to avoid the high costs and many delays faced by the Trans Mountain Expansion?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Globe and Mail, “Trans Mountain expects to pay federal government $1.25 billion in 2025” (May 2025)
• Financial Post, “Canada must maximize existing pipelines before building more, Guilbeault says” (May 2025) 
• Financial Post, “Northern Leg to Trans Mountain pipeline attracts interest amid brewing trade war” (February 2025)

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Please note that the interview with Daniel Yergin was recorded on June 11th, before the Israel and Iran conflict began on June 13th, 2025. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Daniel Yergin: Why did you describe the energy transition as troubled and in need of a pragmatic path forward? Do you believe there is a growing consensus that the “fast energy transition” scenario is unrealistic? Do you anticipate Europe softening its green policies and subsidies or extending timelines for net-zero goals? How do you foresee the trade war and competition between the G2 (the United States and China) evolving? How dominant is China in clean energy, and what implications does this hold for the United States' ability to compete? What is OPEC’s motivation for reintroducing supply to the market during a period of weaker demand? What strategy would you recommend for Canada to address US trade pressures and potential annexation threats? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Foreign Affairs, “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” by Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya (April 2025) 

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This week, Charlene Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Energy NL, joins the podcast to explore Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy potential and the discussions at the conference. Among the topics covered were potential nation-building projects, such as the Churchill River hydroelectric development—a joint $33 billion potential initiative by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec that aims to add nearly 4 GW of new electricity generation capacity on the river. Another significant project discussed was Equinor’s Bay du Nord offshore oil development, which could open a new offshore basin 500 km off the coast of Newfoundland. 

In addition to covering the conference highlights, Jackie and Peter recapped the past week’s events, including the constructive First Ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon on June 2nd. During this meeting, Prime Minister Carney outlined the criteria for nation-building projects. Furthermore, on June 6th, the Carney government tabled new legislation, “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act.” The goal is to pass the bill into law by Canada Day. 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Visit Peter Tertzakian's art show at the Elevation Gallery in Canmore, “Persistence, Obsolescence and Renewal: A Visual Inquiry Into the Lifecycle of Energy Infrastructure.” 
• Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) approach to extensive load connections (Data Centres), June 4 
• Avik Dey, President and CEO of Capital Power, LinkedIn post regarding AESO’s approach to data centre development, June 4 
• Prime Minister of Canada Office, “First Ministers’ statement on building a strong Canadian economy and advancing major projects,” June 2 
• “Bill C-5: One Canadian Economy: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act,” tabled June 5 
• “Insiders say Mark Carney could compromise on the emissions cap,” Toronto Star, June 6 

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This week, our guest is Josh Schertzer, Chief Executive Officer at Beacon AI Centers, which recently announced plans to develop up to 4.5 GW of AI data centers in Alberta, representing an investment of up to C$10 billion. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Josh: Should Albertans be concerned about this substantial load growth and the potential for associated higher electricity prices, given that 4.5 GW would account for nearly a 50% increase in current average provincial demand? Can data centers introduce flexibility by curtailing demand during periods of power shortages? Will Beacon AI Centers rely on grid electricity, or will they build their own generation sources? Do the clients of data centers, such as major IT companies, view natural gas as an acceptable energy source, considering its greenhouse gas emissions? How much cooling water is required, and could freshwater availability become a growth constraint? Lastly, what is the employment impact of the projects, including construction, operations, and spin-off jobs associated with establishing a data center hub? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Globe and Mail, “Carney to brief premiers on plan to fast-track major nation building projects” (May 29, 2025)  
• The Logic, “Calgary firm eyes $10B AI data centre building blitz” (May 15, 2025) 
• Duke Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, “Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the potential for integration of large flexible loads in US power systems” (February 2025)

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The newly appointed Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson, delivered a constructive message during his visit to Calgary, highlighting the importance of building energy infrastructure, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, the Premiers from Western Canada convened a meeting in Yellowknife. They released a joint statement agreeing to plan and develop an economic corridor for “transporting oil and gas, liquefied natural gas, uranium, electricity, and hydroelectricity to Canadian and world markets.” 

To discuss these developments, we are joined by our guest, The Honourable Gordon Campbell, President of Hawksmuir International Partners Limited. He is the former Premier of British Columbia (2001–2011), Canadian High Commissioner to the UK and Northern Ireland (2011–2016), and Mayor of Vancouver (1986–1993). 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter posed to The Honourable Gordon Campbell: Based on the Carney government’s constructive comments on energy infrastructure and attracting private investment, including the Energy and Natural Resources Minister’s trip to Calgary last week, would you anticipate a new approach from the Liberals compared to the previous decade? The Western Premiers issued a joint statement to develop economic corridors, including those for transporting electricity, natural gas, and oil. What types of projects do you expect David Eby’s NDP government to support in British Columbia?  Would you expect the Federal government to revise or repeal energy policies, particularly those that might deter capital investment, such as the industrial carbon pricing policy set to increase to $170 per tonne by 2030 or the oil and gas emissions cap? 

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Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Heather: Does Canada have defense and security issues in the north? Politicians, including our Prime Minister, support Arctic export ports—do you expect to see new export corridors to the north? The Russians ship LNG from the Arctic, so why not Canada? What are your concerns about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s climate policy, as outlined in his Liberal leadership and election platforms? What are the issues with Canada’s greenwashing rules that were made law about one year ago? How would you recommend Canada move forward with speeding up the development of large projects—should the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69) be scrapped or just modified? What are the prospects for deploying small or micro nuclear reactors (SMRs) in the north? What does the future hold for Indigenous equity participation in major projects? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Northern Corridors: Hype or Hope? Macdonald-Laurier Institute, April 2025 
• Heather Exner-Pirot: Mark Carney’s climate plan is already outdated, The Hub, February 2025 
• Canada’s Greenwashing Amendment: A failure of process and policy, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, February 2025 
• From emergency to miracle – Germany’s LNG Acceleration Law shows that Western states can still build when they need to, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, January 2024 
• Learn more about Ontario Power Generation’s SMR project, including a video of the site preparation progress, Spring 2025

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To help us understand the recent volatility in oil prices, our guest this week is Jeremy Irwin, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jeremy: Is this a repeat of 2015, when OPEC decided to flood the market to weaken US shale oil producers? Is President Trump influencing the OPEC+ strategy, as he may want lower oil prices to help offset the inflationary effects of US tariffs? At current price levels, how will US oil production respond? If profit is tight at lower prices, will US oil producers prioritize paying shareholders or capital spending? How might changes to US sanctions on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran impact the oil market? When do you expect global (and China’s) oil demand to peak? In the short term, how serious is the threat of recession to oil demand? Do you expect Canadian oil export infrastructure to expand? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• See the Energy Aspects website to learn more about their research data, tools, and consulting services

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This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. 

Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada? 

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Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy.  Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining.  Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion. 

 Content referenced in this podcast:

• Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)
• Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)
• BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition 
• White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)
• Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025) 
• Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)

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Next, the conversation turns to Canada, the upcoming federal election, and Arctic export ports. To help us understand the opportunities and challenges with Arctic ports, Chris Avery, CEO of the Arctic Gateway Group joins the show. The Arctic Gateway Group is an Indigenous and community-owned transportation company that operates the Port of Churchill—Canada’s only Arctic seaport serviced by rail—and the Hudson Bay Railway, connecting The Pas to Churchill, Manitoba.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Chris: What is the condition of the rail line to the port now? What types of goods are currently exported from the port, and what types are expected to be exported in the future? Is it a deep-water port? How much of the year is Hudson Bay covered by ice, preventing exports? Is it feasible to break the ice? They also discussed whether the port could be suitable for LNG exports. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney, Liberal platform, economic pillars for change with a plan for Arctic ports (note, the Conservative party of Canada also has an Arctic control and sovereignty plan, but it does not explicitly identify energy export ports). 
• Energy News “Arctic Pipelines to Capture European Market” (March 26, 2025), reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s initiative aimed at expanding the country’s oil infrastructure toward the Arctic
• LNG Industry, “Ice-breaking LNG carrier for Yamal LNG project named Vladimir Rusanov” (January 2018)
• Ship Technology “Mikhail Ulyanov Ice-Class Tanker” (December 2008)
• The BC Government announces more flexibility for the LNG net-zero 2030 policy, see March 28, 2025 letter to project proponent and updated Climate Action Secretariat’s Net Zero Plan Requirements 

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Content referenced in this podcast:

• Financial Times, “In charts: winners and losers from Trump’s new tariffs” (April 4, 2025)
• BNN Bloomberg, Trump’s tariffs to send U.S. into recession: JP Morgan (April 6, 2025)
• Polymarket, “ US recession in 2025?”
• Reuters, “OPEC+ unexpectedly speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops” (April 3, 2025)
• 338Canada, Canadian Federal Election Polling

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Fusion energy aims to create a miniature sun on Earth, utilizing the same process that powers the sun, where tiny atoms fuse together to release a massive amount of clean energy. Recent breakthroughs in fusion include experiments achieving net energy gain and private developers pledging to have grid-connected fusion electricity generation units by the mid-2030s.

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Brian: What are the advantages of fusion energy? How does it differ from nuclear fission? Realistically, how long before fusion is a commercial reality delivering electrons to the grid? How has the entrance of private companies and almost $7 billion in total private investment changed the pace of innovation? Do you think fusion energy will eventually be low-cost, and if so, what are the potential new uses of this abundant and cheap form of electricity?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Dr. Arthur Turrell’s book: “The Star Builders – Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet”
• 2024 report by the Fusion Industry Association

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EDC recently published its quarterly report and had some critical words about the government's proposed changes for Alberta’s electricity market – called the Restructured Energy Market (REM) - describing it as a “highly complex, expensive, inefficient experiment.” The same sentiment was reflected by almost all the 36 organizations that participated in the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO)’s feedback process in early 2025. Stakeholders were nearly unanimous in their comments that the changes will make Alberta’s electricity markets more expensive and less reliable – the exact attributes the redesign promised to fix. The sharp criticism spans all industry segments – from natural gas generators and renewable energy developers to consumers and transmission companies. 

Participants also raised the issue of the AESO skipping the regulatory review from the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), which provides an independent review by a regulatory body as a safeguard to prevent any unintended negative consequences from the redesign.   

Peter and Jackie examine the concerns and potential long-term negative implications for Alberta’s electricity grid, generators, and consumers with Duane Reid-Carlson. 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Stakeholder submissions to the AESO on the Restructured Energy Market (REM) design, January 2025 

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked François Poirier: What are some of the top themes at CERAWeek, including the discussion on the infrastructure panel you spoke at? Do you expect the US will build pipelines and other large energy projects faster with President Trump’s emergency orders and fast-tracking? What is your outlook for North American natural gas demand, considering the proliferation of plans to build new AI data centres? President Trump would like to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline; what are your thoughts on that project? Is there an opportunity to move more natural gas between Western Canada and Eastern Canada over Canadian territory using the TC Mainline? Do you see the potential to revive the Energy East pipeline? What did you learn from completing the Coastal Gas Link pipeline which connects natural gas from Northeast British Columbia to Canada’s west coast at Kitimat, and how did it compare to your recent project of building a natural gas pipeline in Mexico? Could you envision TC Energy investing in another LNG feed gas pipeline in Canada, and what would need to change for you to make this investment? How urgent is it for Canada to start taking action to accelerate LNG projects, considering competition from Alaska, Mexico, and other foreign suppliers?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece “How to Make North American Energy Great Again” (Feb 3, 2005)
• TC Energy’s Mexico pipeline project ($4.5 billion of investment)
• TC Energy’s Coastal GasLink Project in Canada 

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Mark: What is the economic impact of LNG Canada Phase 1? How does the Montney compare to other natural gas plays globally? Can Canadian LNG compete with other global suppliers to Asia? How does the carbon emissions intensity of Canadian LNG compare to other suppliers? How would you describe the risk of investing in a Canadian LNG export terminal, compared with other countries where PETRONAS invests? Investment in Canadian LNG has been less than expected compared to a decade ago; what needs to change for Canada to attract new capital for building LNG export facilities? In your view, did BC Premier David Eby's announcement to fast-track 18 projects help address any barriers to investment? Does BC still require LNG facilities to be net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and does any other country require this? Are there any updates on the potential for a final investment decision (FID) on LNG Canada Phase 2?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• 338Canada  – Canadian Federal Election Polling

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The podcast begins with a bit of history, looking back at a 1950s article on the potential to make a fortune in Canada. While the country is still endowed with vast natural resources, investing in Canadian resources has become more complex over the past few decades. The challenge is evidenced by an estimated $150+ billion in projects canceled, withdrawn, or denied and the $50 billion in foreign exits from the Canadian oil and gas industry over the past decade. Another example is the surge of LNG export capacity growth in the US, while in comparison Canada has had tepid investment.

Peter and Jackie then discuss some ideas for attracting investors based on conversations over the past month, sparked by President Trump’s threat of tariffs and annexation. These include ideas for fast-tracking Canadian trade-enabling infrastructure, including expediting projects that project proponents are already advancing.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• IPSOS poll showing Liberals have a lead (Feb 25, 2025)
• Politico article, the viciousness of Trump’s climate attacks stuns even his critics (Feb 22, 2025)
• S&P study on the economic impact of US LNG
• Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI) article on Germany’s LNG acceleration law by Heather Exner-Pirot (January 15, 2024)
• Financial Post article Northern Leg to Trans Mountain pipeline attracts interest amid brewing trade war (Feb 21, 2025)

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Jackie and Peter ask Dan to fact-check the popular show "Landman” currently streaming on Paramount+. The series is set in the Permian Basin, featuring Billy Bob Thornton as Tommy Norris, a landman who also serves as the VP of Operations.

The discussion also provides an update on the Permian Basin, which has surpassed all of Western Canada in oil and gas production and stands as the world's largest producing basin. The rapid production growth in the Permian Basin has cemented the United States' position as the largest producer of oil and gas globally, by a significant margin. They also discuss Donald Trump’s plan to “drill baby drill” and what that could mean for the future of US oil and gas production.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Jackie and Peter’s podcast from April 2019 about Jackie’s trip to the Permian Basin
• Jackie’s blog on the Permian Basin from 2019 - Updated to include the rattlesnake picture referenced in this podcast
• Aaron Foyer’s post on GHG emissions savings from wind turbines 
• Enverus blog on methane flaring in the Permian 

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First, they cover recent news, including the latest on US tariffs, the Canadian Prime Minister’s Canada-US Economic Summit held on February 7th, Mark Carney’s Climate Plan, interprovincial trade barriers, and the need to attract private capital to invest in expanding Canada’s energy infrastructure, such as ports, pipelines, rail, and transmission lines.

Next, Peter and Jackie consider Ontario and Quebec's heavy reliance on crude oil and natural gas transiting through the United States. They also discuss Canada’s imports of refined petroleum products and cross-border electricity trade. 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney Climate Plan 
• CAPP Data Centre “Canadian Imports of US Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Refined Products”
• Peter Tertzakian’s story “The Long Way Around” also on Apple Podcasts 
• Financial Post, July 2020: “Cenovus first to announce it’s shipping Western oil to Eastern refineries through the Panama Canal.”
• EIA blog that Canada and US trade in electricity is close to balanced (November 2024)

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On February 6th, 2025, Anne spoke at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business annual PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series. This episode was recorded live at the event.

Jackie Forrest moderated the discussion with Anne Applebaum, which covered a wide range of topics, including the timing of her new book, the Trump administration’s early actions and executive orders, and the recent deterioration of Canadian-US relations.

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On February 3rd, after this podcast was recorded, President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau agreed to pause the tariffs for at least 30 days.

To help us understand the escalating trade war, we welcome the Honourable John Manley to the podcast. For over a decade, John served in the Federal Government as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Industry. He is currently the Chairman of Jefferies Securities Inc., a member of the Board of Directors of TELUS, and a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked the Honourable John Manley: What are your thoughts on the abrupt turn in US - Canada relations? What else should Canada be doing at this point? What are Canada’s energy vulnerabilities in this dispute? Does Canada have emergency measures it can use? Should Canada boost spending to support businesses and people, and does the prorogation of parliament limit these options?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• John Manley’s Op-ed in the Globe and Mail, “Dear Donald Trump: Your plan to create ‘the United States of Canada’ is brilliant” (January 15, 2025)
• The Main Project 25 Document Published in April 2023

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christopher: What is your reaction to President Trump's speech to the business leaders at Davos, specifically his remarks about not needing Canadian lumber, automobiles, or oil and gas? President Trump’s inauguration speech mentioned expanding territory; does that mean going to war? The executive order "American First Trade Policy" outlined a process to make trade recommendations by April 1st. However, President Trump also mentioned February 1st as the day tariffs could be imposed on Canada and Mexico. Which date do you expect? How important is it for Canada to increase its military spending? Some of President Trump’s executive orders, such as “Unleashing American Energy” and “Declaring a National Energy Emergency,” grant the federal government significant powers—akin to wartime measures—to expedite energy infrastructure development. Do you expect these powers will be challenged in the courts? President Trump has stated that he will end the Green New Deal, and one executive order froze the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds. What is your expectation regarding support for clean energy? Canada currently has a void of federal leadership, and Premiers are filling the gap and going to Washington, D.C.; how is that being viewed in the US?  What are your views on the top contenders for the next Prime Minister of Canada and their ability to negotiate successfully with President Trump and the new Administration?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• The Canusa Street Podcast
• Canada and the United States: Differences That Count, Fifth edition, David Thomas and Christopher Sands 

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ClearBlue Markets helps clients harness carbon markets to meet their climate objectives.  

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Michael: What is the overall sentiment toward carbon markets, especially after the Trump Administration's retreat from ESG initiatives? Are recent recommendations for new quality standards improving trust in voluntary carbon credits? Will COP29's global carbon market mechanism endorsement encourage more international trading? Why are Alberta TIER carbon market offsets discounted by 50%, and why do California LCFS and BC credit markets also have low prices? What are your expectations for Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credit prices, and could the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) repeal the regulation if elected? Why does Canada have 11 carbon markets? Can industrial emitters trade carbon offsets in Ontario? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• ICE has two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Polymarket: “Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada?” 

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Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.

Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft). 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Donald Trump’s January 2, 2025, X post on how tariffs create wealth for Americans 
• Final Clean Electricity Regulations (December 13, 2024)
• Jordan B. Peterson Podcast interview with Pierre Poilievre (released January 2, 2025)
• The deadline to provide a “Notice of Objection” on the oil and gas cap is January 8, 2025. Email the objection to PlanPetrolieretGazier-OilandGasPlan@ec.gc.ca. See more information under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations 

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For the last podcast of the year, we welcome Elliot Mainzer, President & Chief Executive Officer, California Independent System Operator (CAISO).

California has integrated a large share of renewables into its electricity supply. As of 2023, almost 50% of California’s power generation came from renewables. Renewable power generation includes solar (19%), hydro (15%), wind (6%), geothermal (5%), and biomass (2%). 

Jackie and Peter asked Elliot: What is your expectation for future renewables growth? What is the future of natural gas generation?  Is transmission able to keep up with the addition of new power supply? Do you expect changes under the Trump administration could speed up the permitting for new transmission projects?  Are you concerned about the pace of demand growth and what is driving the acceleration?   Is it fair to say that high renewables penetration has caused California to have expensive power prices?  Alberta is making market changes to address the growth of renewables; how did California address these issues with market design in a way that continued to create a compelling investment opportunity for renewables?  How much electricity does California currently receive from Alberta and British Columbia?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Statement from CanREA on concerns about punitive market and transmission changes in Alberta, including a link to a Direction Letter from Minister Nathan Neudorf (December 10, 2024)
• Opinion: Alberta needs solar and wind to meet demand by Vittoria Bellissimo and Evan Wilson, December 12, 2024
• 2023 Total System Electric Generation for California (California Energy Commission) 

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Peter and Jackie asked Arne about the power equipment business, including how the potential new tariffs could impact the business and new manufacturing investments. They also discuss technologies for generating electricity from natural gas and efficiency rates. Other questions include: To decarbonize natural gas power generation, is it better to blend clean hydrogen into the feedstock or capture the carbon dioxide from the exhaust? What is the backlog for ordering new natural gas power plants and the waiting time for other key electrical components, such as large transformers? What digital technologies can increase the use of existing grid infrastructure? What are your expectations for offshore and onshore wind generation projects in Canada? Hydrogen development in Canada has been slower than initially expected back in 2022; why the delays, and what are your future expectations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Siemens Energy Canada 
• PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series, Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum will be in Calgary on February 6, 2025. Early Bird tickets are on sale until January 10. 
• The Ezra Klien Show, podcast with Anne Applebaum “Trump Kicks Down the Guardrails”
• ‘Hype’ meets reality as Canada’s plans to export hydrogen to Germany stall (October 6, 2024) 

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Next, Peter and Jackie welcome their guest, Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). CanREA is a national industry association and the voice for Canada's wind, solar, and energy storage solutions.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Vittoria: How would you describe the mood of renewable developers in Canada today? Tariffs on solar equipment could be added at the Canadian border; how will this impact the cost of developing solar and wind projects? Why has Canada recently imported more electricity from the United States? Does this mean Canada is already facing tighter electricity markets? Alberta is redesigning its electricity market, called the REM or Restructured Energy Market. Why is this change needed? What concerns do renewable generators have regarding the proposed changes for the Alberta market? Are you concerned about the potential electricity demand growth from AI data centres in Alberta and elsewhere?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• CanREA’s Clean Energy Procurement Calendar
• Dunsky report commissioned by CanREA, that defines the potential for onsite or behind-the-meter solar in Canada
• EIA note on how US exports of electricity to Canada have increased
• CanREA’s Go Solar Guide 2024, the go-to source for Canadians looking to install solar on their rooftops and homes 

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Next, Peter and Jackie welcome their guest, Bob Dhillon, the Founder, President, and CEO of Mainstreet Equity Corp., which is a Calgary-based real estate company specializing in acquiring, redeveloping, and managing mid-market residential rental apartment buildings across Western Canada.

Buildings, including apartment buildings, are a significant source of emissions. According to the Canada Green Building Council (CAGBC), “residential, commercial, and institutional buildings contribute 17% of Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Considering building materials and construction brings that number closer to 30%, making the building sector Canada’s third-highest carbon emitter.”

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Bob: What is your perspective on the Canadian housing crisis? What are some solutions for solving the housing shortage? Who pays for energy in Mainstreet’s apartment buildings? What projects have you undertaken to reduce energy use in the buildings? Who pays for the escalating carbon tax? How would a net zero building code impact the housing shortage?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Liberty Energy’s Report “Bettering Human Lives”
• Mainstreet Equity Corp. website: https://www.mainst.biz/

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This week, Sander Duncanson, Partner at Osler and Co-Chair of Osler's national Regulatory, Indigenous, and Environmental practice, joins the podcast. Osler is a leader in Canadian business law.

Peter, Jackie and Sander discuss their concerns with the proposed policy. Topics covered include:

• The low likelihood of the regulation becoming final law.
• The potential for the policy to create winners and losers, market distortions, and other unintended consequences.
• The complexity of Canada’s regulatory framework which reduces investment.
• Concerns that Canada and the United States are moving in opposite directions regarding carbon policy. Canada is increasing stringency, while the US is expected to reduce its carbon policy, thereby creating the threat of investment moving from Canada to the US (carbon leakage).
• The options to provide feedback on the proposed policy are available until January 8th, 2025.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations (November 9th, 2024)
  • Consultation feedback can be provided within a series of online forms in the Gazette, Part 1 link above, by January 8th, 2025. Another option for feedback is to submit a “Notice of Objection” by the same date. More information on this option can be found under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in the Gazette.
• Peter Tertzakian’s commentary in The Hub “DeepDive: It’s time for a carbon policy time-out” (November 2nd, 2024)
• Osler’s Blog “Federal government announces constitutionally questionable oil and gas sector emissions cap” (November 8th, 2024)

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This week, Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, joins the podcast to talk about the recent elections and polling.

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Shachi: What does the election of Donald Trump tell you about the state of democracies? How important of an issue is immigration? To what extent do Canadians support Trump's policies and approach? What is the likelihood of US import tariffs of 10-20% being applied to Canada? What are the likely energy policies from the Trump administration? What are the priorities in British Columbia post-election, and do you expect any change with respect to natural resource development and LNG? How could the election of President Trump impact the next Canadian election?  Do you expect any leadership changes for the Liberals?  How does climate change rate as a priority for Canadian voters?

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Angus Reid Institute
• Shachi Kurl, Ottawa Citizen Article, “Don’t expect a unified ‘Team Canada’ approach to Donald Trump this time” (Nov 8, 2024) 
• Awaiting the next President: Canadians prefer Trudeau to deal with Harris, Poilievre to work with Trump (Nov 4, 2024)

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Next, they delve into the IEA’s recently released World Energy Outlook 2024. This annual report is widely read and used for discussions on the future of energy. They review some key points that caught their attention, including an outlook for abundant energy supply in the latter part of the 2020s, peak fossil fuels by 2030, electricity’s growing role, and the adoption of EVs.

They also consider a few new EV labels: extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs).

They also introduce Peter’s recent article on the proposed cap on Canada’s oil and gas emissions.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• UN Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please! (October 2024)
• UN “It’s Climate Crunch Time” video about three future scenarios, including game over (October 2024)
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2024
• Peter Tertzakian’ s commentary “It’s time for a carbon policy time-out (November 2024)

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Chris Levesque: What is a fourth-generation nuclear reactor, and how does it differ from the operating reactors in North America regarding safety, cost, and waste? Is the United States ahead of other countries in developing these fourth-generation nuclear reactors? What are the strategic benefits for the United States in developing this technology? How is this technology compatible with wind and solar electricity generation? What is the timeline for the regulatory and permitting process for the first facility? When do you expect to start up your first power plant in Wyoming? Does the uranium need to be enriched, and how will the waste be stored? 

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This week, our guests are Crystal Smith, Chief Councillor of the Haisla Nation, and Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pembina Pipeline Corporation. They explain the project, the community support, the financing, the environmental review process, and, importantly, what this project means for the Haisla Nation’s economic future.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

• Cedar LNG Announces Positive Final Investment Decision (June 25, 2024), scroll down to play the video
• See all videos about the project, including hearing from members of the Haisla Nation: Media Kit - Cedar LNG
• National Bank paper making a case for a global GHG reduction from growing Canadian LNG Exports: “Canada Has a Vital Role in Deleveraging the Global Environmental Balance Sheet,” February 2024

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In this episode, Peter and Jackie reflect on the podcasts and events that have stayed with them over the past six years and the topics that keep arising, including divestment and energy security. They also discuss their philosophy of interviewing guests.

Special thanks to the loyal ARC Energy Ideas podcast listeners and to Beau Shiminsky at Ear Candy, our sound engineer since day one.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Energyphile stories on Apple (Audio only)
• Energyphile stories on the website (written and audio) 
• Ear Candy Studio

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Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Andrew: How did the market for battery minerals flip so quickly from being undersupplied to oversupplied? How much lithium-ion battery demand comes from grid-scale storage versus EVs? Are you optimistic that the policies and subsidies introduced by the US and Canada will eventually create an EV supply chain comparable to China? Were you surprised by how fast battery chemistries changed when mineral prices were high? Are lithium-ion batteries below the $100/kWh level yet? With improved mineral availability, are automakers continuing to pursue vertical integration? Is it possible that deep-sea battery minerals could add more supply than expected?

Other content referenced on the podcast:

• Benchmark Mineral Intelligence website: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/

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Canadian Federal Politics. Last week was not the time for an election as the NDP and the Bloc Québécois did not support the Conservative Party of Canada’s motion for a carbon tax election. But when will the election be held, and what does a faster election mean for advancing new energy legislation and regulations? 

Climate Week NYC is an annual event that focuses on addressing climate change. Peter and Jackie discuss the news that caught their attention while watching headlines from the week, including a nuclear energy renaissance. There is also a growing recognition that greenhouse gas emission reduction goals are not being achieved and that oil demand continues to grow.

Canadian Electricity Markets. Ottawa opened a consultation to consider adding a surtax on Chinese modules, semiconductors, batteries, and battery parts imported into Canada, similar to the 100% surtax on EVs introduced in the summer.

Electricity demand in Canada is growing. As a result, several provinces, including Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, have recently made calls to build new electricity generation plants. Alberta, however, is in the middle of an electricity market redesign that is, for now, making new investment in the province uncertain.

Oil Markets. While WTI oil price stayed in the $US75-85/B range for most of 2024, it fell to $US65/B on September 10th and recovered to $US68/B at the podcast recording time. Jackie and Peter discuss factors contributing to the weakness in oil prices.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

• World Nuclear News: Constellation to restart Three Mile Island unit, powering Microsoft (September 2024)
• DCD: Oracle to build nuclear SMR-powered gigawatt data center (September 2024)
• Canada consults on measures to protect Canadian workers in critical manufacturing sectors from unfair Chinese trade practices (September 2024)
• Alberta AESO stakeholder feedback on potential strategic reserves 
• Financial Times:  Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share (September 2024)

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We examine the latest sales numbers and the factors that could be contributing to slower growth in North America. Factors include a lack of charging infrastructure, the high cost of fast charging, high depreciation, and a current shortage of plug-in hybrid options. EV competitiveness with gasoline cars, especially in the compact car segments, remains an issue.

To help us with the conversation, our guest this week is Lawrence Romanosky, a Calgary-based 'car guy' with 20 years of experience as a luxury car sales manager. Lawrence was responsible for the first rollout of the Porsche Taycan all-electric car at the dealership in Calgary in 2019. Check out his auto blog and website here.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• LUGNUTZ self-service facility for automotive enthusiasts 
• Wall Street Journal “What Scared Ford’s CEO in China,” Sept 14, 2024 
• Article from Spectrum News on a study from iSeeCars.com  “EVs depreciate more than any other vehicle type, study says,” November 2023 
• AAA Newsroom “Your Driving Costs: The Price of a New Car Ownership Continues to Climb,” September 2024, includes a special analysis comparing the cost of EV and hybrid ownership to gas-powered
• Electrek “BYD $10,000 Seagull EV was the top-selling car in China last month,” September 2024 

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Politics is top of mind for energy decision-makers with the upcoming US election, Canadian federal by-elections, the possibility of an early federal election in Canada, and a provincial election next month in Christy Clark’s home province of British Columbia.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christy Clark:

Are you surprised that the NDP has been slipping in the polls in BC? Explain the BC United Party (former BC Liberal Party) recently folding into the Conservative Party of BC. Is there potential for the provincial Conservative Party to win in BC next month? Is climate change still an important issue for BC voters? You worked to get BC’s LNG industry started, with over 15 potential projects expected at one point; what is your view on the industry now? Is more electrical generation capacity needed to meet future demand, besides the Site C hydro dam? Now that it has started, how do people feel about the Trans Mountain expansion oil pipeline? With the federal NDP ripping up their agreement to cooperate with the Liberals, do you expect the federal election will occur sooner than October 2025? What are the chances that Justin Trudeau will withdraw from the federal Liberal leadership before the election? Do you have any federal political aspirations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Current polling of BC provincial election at 388canada.com 

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Rob explains why he hates S-curves, since they are often used to assume future growth rates for new energy technologies instead of properly analyzing what is realistic.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rob: What do you think of the recent sell-off of clean energy stocks and the reasons behind some company failures? How much do you think the electricity demand will grow due to AI? Will there be investment in new natural gas-fired generation to meet this demand growth, despite the concerns about carbon emissions?  Why do you think solar is the most important energy source in the world? Why do you see power grids as the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition? Do you think naturally found hydrogen in the earth’s subsurface, also called “gold hydrogen,” could be the next “gold rush”? 

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• Thunder Said Energy website, see past research notes and sign up for daily email: https://thundersaidenergy.com/ 
• FT article “More cleantech companies fail as fundraising challenges emerge (ft.com),” September 2, 2024 

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They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. 

Content referenced on this podcast:  

• McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) 
• Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  
• BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. 
• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) 

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• Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024) 

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•  Osler’s detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. 
• Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) 
• Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act 
• Kevin  Krausert opinion “Ottawa’s anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovation” (June 20, 2024)

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• Remarkable digital notepad 
• Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado  
• Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba 

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In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.

In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion. 

Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• CAPP Data Centre 
• US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) 
• Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC) 

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• The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry  
• Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website 
• Supreme Court of Canada Judgment:  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec 

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• Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag (April 30, 2024) 

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• The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023” 

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• Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck 
• Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) 
• The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) 
• GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) 
• Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) 
• Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) 
• Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) 

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 Content referenced in this episode: 

• Canada Budget 2024  
•  RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at risk
• Trevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) 
• Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) 
• Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   

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Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  

Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) 
• The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) 

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Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• NYT article from January 2024:  “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow”  
• Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner Studio

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Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits?

Content referenced on this podcast:

• Clean Prosperity Canada
• ICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits 

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This week, our guest, Blake Shaffer, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, helps us understand these changes.

Here are some questions Jackie and Peter asked Blake: Why does Alberta need a market redesign? Was the near-brownout during a frigid weekend in January a sign that the current system is not working? What is “economic withholding” and how does it contribute to higher prices? The REM is expected to have a “day-ahead market,” how does that work? The REM could also have a wide pricing range, from negative prices to ones that exceed the current maximum of $999/MWh. What is the benefit of a wide price range? Do the proposed changes hurt renewable power projects? The REM is also considering changes to transmission; how significant could these changes be?  Will the REM changes negatively impact entities that contracted power under the existing rules?  What are your views on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) legislation, that aims to make Canada’s electricity sector net zero by 2035?

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• Andrew Rodden, Energy Transition Zone Ltd.  
• Pilar Amieva, X-Academy 
• Allan MacAskill, Flotation Energy plc 
• Jeff Richardson, Fugro 
• Kieran Morton, Port of Aberdeen 
• Thomas Nicoll, SSEN Transmission 
• Emily Taylor, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) 
• Jonathan Turner, British Consul General, Calgary, Canada 
• Tiffany Langford, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, British High Commission based in Calgary 
• Marla Orenstein, Canada West Foundation 

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John, Jackie, and Peter discuss sustainable finance and Canada’s dearth of capital spending on energy transition and decarbonization.  

Questions covered during the podcast: Is the lack of a national taxonomy that defines what projects count as clean, green, and sustainable slowing investment? Should decarbonization projects, including reducing emissions from oil and gas, be included in the definition of sustainable finance?  What are the barriers to increasing private spending on Canadian clean energy projects? Considering the situation, is Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction goal achievable? To what extent are upcoming elections in the United States, Canada, and Europe slowing down clean energy investing?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• RBC’s “Sustainable Finance Framework” a document that outlines the bank’s approach and methodology for sustainable finance
• RBC’s “Climate Action 2024” an annual report on Canada’s net zero journey
• RBC’s Disruptors podcast hosted by John Stackhouse, also on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts and Spotify

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• The Alberta Government is lifting the moratorium on new wind and solar project permits, a policy that was enacted in the summer of 2023. 
• The Alberta Government introduces its 2024 fiscal budget.  Before the budget announcement, Premier Danielle Smith made the case for rebuilding the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund to help eliminate the revenue roller coaster that results from volatile oil and gas prices.  The budget also included Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) funding and a registration tax of $200 per year for each electric vehicle.  
• Qatar announced it will add more LNG capacity by 2030. Given Shell’s recent projection of more than 50% growth in global LNG demand by 2040 and that the US will supply 30% of total demand by 2030, what are the implications on LNG markets and the Canadian opportunity for LNG exports? 
• The IEA has been criticized for prioritizing climate advocacy over energy security. 

 Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Alberta Government’s News Conference to Lift the Renewables Moratorium “Renewed path forward for renewable energy – February 28, 2024”   
• Alberta Government’s Budget 2024 
• Blake Shaffer Tweet on the flat road tax for electric vehicles  
• Shell LNG Outlook 2024 
• Robert McNally’s Wall Street Journal Op-ed on the IEA “Climate Politics Neuters Energy Watchdog”
• A New York Times article on the development of white paints to cool the planet by scientists at the University of Purdue  

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Next, they introduce this week’s guest, the Honourable Todd Smith, Ontario’s Energy Minister and MLA for the Bay of Quinte in Ontario. Since the Conservatives came to power in 2018, Todd Smith has held various cabinet positions.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Minister Smith: When the Ontario Conservatives first came into power, renewable electricity projects that were agreed to under the Liberal government’s feed-in tariff (FIT) program were canceled, yet now Ontario is procuring new capacity for wind, hydro, biomass, and solar generation, why the change? Is Ontario having a nuclear renaissance? What are the plans to expand nuclear electricity? Where will Ontario source the enriched uranium for the new nuclear power plants? Is it realistic to see nuclear plants operating in other parts of Canada, such as Saskatchewan and Alberta? What is the role of natural gas for power generation and residential heating in Ontario? In November 2023, the Ontario IESO wrote a letter to the Federal Government on the proposed CER, saying, “The CER as drafted is unachievable by 2035 in Ontario…the policy would cause a resource shortfall”; what are your concerns and do the changes announced on February 16th improve the situation? Are you working with any other provinces that oppose the CER?

Content referenced in this podcast:
- ECCC’s Proposed Changes to the CER (February 16, 2024)
- The Ontario IESO’s letter to the federal government on the proposed CER

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Ellis also currently serves as the Shadow Minister for Energy and LNG. Before being elected to the British Columbia legislature, Ellis Ross was the Chief Councillor for the Haisla Nation, in that position, he signed an agreement with an LNG developer to build a plant on the Haisla Nation reserves. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Ellis: Why did you enter provincial politics and why have you decided to run in the next federal election for the Conservative Party?  How has the LNG Canada project impacted people in your community?  What is the status of LNG Canada? What is the status of Cedar LNG, a smaller project in collaboration with the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation also located in Kitimat?  Is BC’s requirement for net zero LNG by 2030 effectively a ban on new LNG development?  What is the status of the transmission line and electricity supply, if LNG must be net zero by 2030? How do you think Canada should tackle the climate challenge and energy projects differently?  What is the potential for blue ammonia shipments by rail and tanker from the Northern West Coast to Asia? 

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Edison Motors is a privately owned Canadian Clean Technology Company. In 2023, we built Canada’s first Production Electric Hybrid Truck; consisting of Edison make Powertrain, Chassis and Cab. 

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Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Greg: How much do Canadians know about the energy transition? How do they feel it will impact them financially? How do they feel about energy projects in general and near where they live? How important is climate as an issue versus affordability? If a federal election were held now, what political party would win? Do the Conservatives need a credible climate plan for the next election? 

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Carlos's past roles include establishing and directing the new Energy Resources Bureau at the US Department of State and serving as a senior advisor to the Secretary of State on energy issues. He has also previously been a United States Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine. 

Here are some of the questions that Carlos tackled:  How do you expect the US will react to the recent attack on an American base in the Middle East that killed three soldiers?  What is Iran’s motivation in the escalating proxy war? Is it possible that Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024? How does the US election factor into the US strategy on the Middle East conflict? What are your thoughts on COP28 and the “transitioning away from fossil fuels” language that was adopted? Do you think a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is possible? What is driving the growing divide between the Global North and Global South? Do you expect OPEC and Saudi Arabia will continue constraining oil production despite strong non-OPEC supply growth?

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Roger explains the benefits of using natural gas to meet the peak winter heating demand and the challenges of using electricity to do the same. Because of the unique ability of gaseous fuels to flex up and meet demand, even on the coldest days, Roger sees a long-term future for gas. He explains how natural gas can become cleaner over time through a broad set of measures, such as increasing the amount of renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen and efficiency measures that use less natural gas. 

 Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Roger: What is the outlook for the supply and demand of electricity in BC? How will Site C hydroelectric demand change the market? Is BC too reliant on hydro, considering concerns around drought? Why has BC recently decided to launch a call for renewable power from large-scale wind and solar farms? What is RNG and how much potential supply is there? How are you involving Indigenous partners in your projects? What are your thoughts on the Clean Electricity Regulations targeting net zero electricity by 2035? Considering Atlantic Canada’s exception from the retail carbon tax for heating oil, could this be the beginning of the end for the retail carbon tax in Canada?  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)’s Data Centre 
• FortisBC’s Clean Growth Pathway to 2050 
• BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential Study 
• Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals  

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Peter and Jackie also discuss other storms brewing on the horizon and introduce the 2024 energy themes to watch along with some predictions. Here are the energy-related topics they will be closely following: 

• The US Election 
• Canadian Politics and Energy Policy  
• Interest Rates 
• Military Conflicts and the Risk of Oil Supply Outages  
• Oil and Gas Markets 
• Climate Change Policy 
• Nuclear Power 
• Electric Vehicle Adoption 
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Energy 
• Clean Energy Investing 
• Oil and Gas Mergers and Acquisitions  

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1)  Artificial intelligence (AI) becomes mainstream
2)  Investors now understand the clean energy interest rate nexus
3)  2023 will be the hottest year on record 
4)  Affordability issues slow the uptake of clean energy technologies
5)  Policy-driven energy transition led by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
6)  Oil and gas markets shrug off geopolitical risk
7)  Big year for Canadian policy development – some opportunity and some frustration
8)  Canada has two CCS wins in 2023 – Air Liquide Net Zero Hydrogen/Imperial Renewable Fuels and Dow Chemical’s Zero Emissions Ethylene Cracker
9)  IEA appears to switch into climate advocacy mode 

 Content referenced in this podcast:  

· December 13, 2023 UN COP28 Global Stocktake
· December 6, 2023 CNN “2023 will officially be the hottest year on record, scientists report”
· December 15, 2023 The Hill “NOAA: Almost 100 percent chance 2023 will be the hottest year recorded” 

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Next, they talk about the Canadian energy policy announced by the Canadian federal government at COP28, including draft legislation to reduce methane from oil and gas by 75% from 2012 levels by 2030.  The government also issued a document on the proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, with a deadline to submit feedback by February 5, 2024, draft legislation by 2024, and final regulations in 2025.

Lastly, Kim Sturgess, CEO of WaterSMART Solutions, joins the podcast. WaterSMART Solutions is a leading consultancy for water management solutions.  With funding and support from Alberta Innovates, ATCO, Capital Power, Hydrogen Naturally, Kiwetinohk Energy Corporation, and the Municipal District of Greenview, the consultancy published a study titled “Water Impacts from Hydrogen Development in Alberta in 2023.”  Kim explains that water is consumed to make clean, blue, and green hydrogen and that the water source must be considered early in project planning. The report demonstrates that the full development of the hydrogen sector within Alberta is likely to both cause water supply challenges and be limited by water availability.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

- Draft legislation for the reduction of Canada’s oil and gas methane emissions by 75% by 2030 (versus a 2012 baseline)

- Regulatory framework for an oil and gas sector greenhouse gas emissions cap (for feedback by February 5, 2024) 

- WaterSMART Study of Water Impacts of Hydrogen Development in Alberta, 2023

- WaterSMART Infographic: Water for Alberta’s Hydrogen Economy, 2023

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The Six Nations of the Grand River is located near Toronto and is Canada's most populated First Nation, with just over 30,000 members.  The Nation has established the Six Nations of Grand River Development Corporation, which has a separate governance and decision-making structure from the Nation’s political decision-making structure.  The corporation has become an equity partner in a variety of renewable energy projects, including transmission, wind, solar, and battery storage. The corporation has ambitious goals for delivering economic benefits to the community, targeting $150 million annually by 2030 in direct economic impact to the Nation.   

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Matt Jamieson: Why was a separate governance structure used for the corporation? What types of projects are you involved in?  How did you finance your equity share in these projects with your partners? Tell us about the Niagara Reinforcement Line and the Oneida Energy Storage Project? How has consultation with Indigenous communities on these types of projects changed over the past decade? What are your thoughts on the Fall Economic Statement that the Liberal government could introduce a multibillion-dollar loan program to help Indigenous groups in Canada buy equity in resource projects? What is your advice to Indigenous communities and companies who want to work with them on how to get started? 

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Six Nations of Grand River Development Corporation Website 

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-   Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms (2023) 

-  The ESG-Innovation Disconnect: Evidence from Green Patenting (2021) 

-  Yale Insights: Green Investing Could Push Polluters to Emit More Greenhouse Gases (2023) 

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Paolo explains that with the significant incentives offered in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Canada is unable to compete with the United States to attract investment in solar panel manufacturing facilities. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie ask Paolo: Why have the share prices for publicly traded solar manufacturing companies fallen this year?  How has solar panel pricing changed in the past year? Have the US tariffs on Chinese panels resulted in a boost for US domestic manufacturing?  How impactful are the IRA incentives for solar manufacturing, both the production tax credit (PTC) and the investment tax credit (ITC)? How do the incentives in Canada compare with the United States?  What is the efficiency of solar panels today, and is there room for improvement?  How can manufacturers keep up with the rapid pace of technical innovation?  What is the state of solar panel recycling?  The Canadian government has offered more generous incentives for producing lithium-ion batteries, how do the jobs for manufacturing batteries compare with solar panels?  

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Silfab Solar Sustainability Impact Report 
• ARC Financial Sustainability Report  

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· Rising geopolitical risks.  Why are the oil markets calm in the face of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the potential for an oil outage? 

· ExxonMobil and Chevron announce significant acquisitions.  In contrast to the news headlines, Peter and Jackie argue that these acquisitions could make sense, even in the scenario that oil and gas demand declines.  

· Clean energy stocks tumble.  Clean energy indexes like the WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) are down about 35 percent since the summer. Why are stocks down, and what are the likely implications?

· Canada announces a three-year pause in the carbon tax for heating oil to help with affordability.  Yet, other sources of heating in the country do not get a break.  Jackie and Peter discuss the outrage in areas of the country that do not depend on heating oil for heat, as well as other possible implications.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

· Thunder Said Energy: War and commodities: how do conflicts impact prices? October 12, 2023

· The Clean Investment Monitor: Tracking Decarbonization Technology in the United States, Rhodium Group, MIT, CEEPR, September 2023

· Prime Minister of Canada Office (PMO) announcement “Delivering support for Canadians on energy bills,” October 26, 2023

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• Thunder Said Energy blog on the supply and demand for global energy and the concerns about under-supply: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/global-energy-supply-demand-balance/ 

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To learn more about the decision and the implications for major projects in Canada and future environmental policy, we welcome Sander Duncanson, Partner, Regulatory, Indigenous, and Environmental at Osler to the podcast. Osler is a Canadian business law firm.   

Sander was one of the authors of “Supreme Court of Canada finds the federal Impact Assessment Act unconstitutional,” a briefing published by Osler the day of the ruling.  
 

Next, on the podcast, we talk with Chris Severson-Baker, Executive Director of the Pembina Institute, a Canadian environmental organization.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Chris: Have affordability issues reduced the focus on climate as a top concern? Do you see scenarios, such as the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, which assume a rapid decline in oil and natural gas demand as realistic? Do you agree with Alberta’s moratorium on new permits for renewable projects? In your opinion, does Canada’s oil and gas industry need a cap on its greenhouse gas emissions? What is Pembina’s position on developing Canada’s LNG export market? Do you view the plan for Canada to reach net-zero electricity by 2035 as achievable? What are your expectations for the upcoming COP28 meeting in Dubai?  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• Danielle Smith’s statement about the Supreme Court Ruling on X (formerly Twitter) 
• Pembina’s 2023 Alberta Climate Summit on October 26 in Calgary  

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There are some important federal policies under development with implications for the province of Alberta, including Ottawa’s oil and gas emissions cap and the Clean Electricity Regulation (CER) that aims to move Canada to net-zero electricity by 2035. The Alberta government has also put a six-month moratorium, until the end of February 2024, on approvals of new renewable power projects. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Premier Smith:
From an energy perspective, how could the Alberta Sovereignty Act be used to respond to Ottawa’s policies?
 
What do you say to people who think the oil and gas industry is not reducing emissions fast enough, and therefore more policy is required?
A cap on oil and gas emissions, asking for a 42% reduction below 2019 levels by 2030, could cause production curtailments with negative implications for provincial revenues and oil and gas companies; how will this get reconciled?
What led Alberta to put a temporary moratorium on new permits for wind and solar projects?
Why do you think the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulation is
bad for Alberta?
Why did you launch a national campaign to bring awareness to the issue with the clean electricity policy?
Carbon capture and storage (CCS)project spending in Alberta is moving slower than most people anticipated; why is that, and can the province help?

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