The Weekly Insight

What’s the Bond Market Telling Us?

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:00:00 -0500

The bond market doesn't make headlines like stocks do.

No breakouts. No "to the moon." Just yields, spreads, and math.

But right now, it might be telling us more than the stock market is.

Here's what's happening: the 50-year-old recession indicator everyone trusts hasn't fired. High-yield bond traders are acting like this is one of the calmest environments in 20 years. And Treasury traders are doing the exact opposite – pricing in real risk and pushing yields higher.

Two markets. Same economy. Completely different conclusions.

We've seen this disagreement before — in 2013, 2016, 2020, and 2023. Every time, it turned out to be nothing.

But the time before that? It started on a single day in June 2007. And the result was the Great Financial Crisis.

Is this that? No. But it's worth understanding why the bond market is the one you should be watching right now – not the one you're ignoring.

A Discipline, Not a Decision

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Four years ago, Jerome Powell used Jackson Hole to warn markets that rate hikes were going to be painful and longer than expected. It became one of the most consequential speeches of his tenure.

Last Friday, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stood at the same podium. The market reacted like it got the same kind of signal. Odds of a September hike jumped from 35% to 60% by the time he finished talking.

We think the market missed the point. Again.

The Cure Won't Pay the Bills

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Moderna's melanoma trial results moved the stock this week — and a lot of the healthcare sector with it.

The excitement is real. Personalized, tumor-built cancer treatment is a genuine medical leap.

But here's the number that should temper the "this fixes healthcare spending" take: cancer treatment is only 6.7% of U.S. healthcare spend. Cure it completely, and the number that actually matters — the 20% of GDP we're on pace to hit by 2030 — barely moves.

This edition of The Weekly Insight covers:

→ What this "vaccine" actually is (hint: it's not what you think)
→ Why curing disease categories doesn't solve America's spending problem
→ Whether drug companies are even incentivized to find cures
→ What longer lifespans mean for an economy that needs workers, not just survivors

Time to Pick a Side?

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:00:00 -0500

Wall Street just posted one of its greediest readings in over 20 years.

The American consumer just posted one of the most pessimistic readings we've ever measured — in 74 years of data.

Both can't be right. But here's the thing: neither is a forecast.

Raising Investors

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 15:00:00 -0500

A client of ours spent $80,000 to teach his family how money works.

He'd built something over 30+ years. What kept him up wasn't whether his kids would inherit it. It was whether they'd know what to do with it when they did.

So, three years ago he opened eight accounts — two kids, their spouses, four nephews — and put $10,000 in each.

The rules were simple. Three years. Whatever you make is yours. I'll pay the taxes. Top three get prizes.

They met regularly. They argued about strategy. They asked us hard questions about the economy and had to defend their answers to each other.

Saturday the clock ran out. The top two finished less than $100 apart.

Every one of them made money. That wasn't the point.

The point was sitting in that final meeting listening to eight people in their late 20s and 30s discuss markets like people who'd been paying attention for three years — because they had.

Here's the thing most families get backwards. They spend enormous energy choosing the right account and almost none on the conversation the account is supposed to start. The vehicle is downstream of the conversation. Always.

That said, the vehicles matter, and one of them is brand new.

We ran the numbers on 530A accounts — the "Trump Accounts" that launched last month. Same $50,000 in contributions. Same 7% return. Started ten years earlier than a typical Roth, because these don't require the child to have earned income.

$903,545 versus $1,777,410.

Nothing changed except when the clock started.

Patience Is Wearing Thin

Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 -0500

Alphabet had a tremendous quarter on Wednesday.

The market took $299 billion from them anyway.

By Thursday's close, the Magnificent Seven had lost $895 billion in a single day. Not the market — those seven companies.

Two weeks ago we wrote that raised expectations made this earnings season dangerous. We were right about the asymmetry. We were wrong about the mechanism, and the mechanism is the story:

→ The market has stopped grading what these companies earn
→ It has started grading when investors get paid back
→ Alphabet says 2027. Amazon says 2027–2028. Tesla says two or three more years. OpenAI isn't expected to turn a profit until 2030
→ Meanwhile the 2-year Treasury is up 78 basis points in nine months

Every one of those bets got more expensive to wait for.

This week decides whether it holds. Wednesday: the Fed at 1:00 CDT, Warsh at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta after the close. Thursday: Apple and Amazon. These four are 53.6% of the Magnificent Seven by market cap.

And Apple is the interesting one. It’s the only member of the Seven that didn't make the infrastructure bet, and the only one the market has rewarded.

The Lie We All Agreed To

Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:00 -0500

Six politicians. Two parties. Twenty years. The exact same promise: "I will not touch your Social Security."

Every one of them was making a promise the math couldn't keep.

In 2005, the last president who tried to actually fix Social Security got crucified for it. Washington learned the lesson: never touch the third rail. So, for two decades, both parties competed to promise they'd protect it while the problem quietly compounded.

This June's Trustees report: the retirement trust fund is empty by 2032, triggering an automatic 22% benefit cut.

Here's the part no one is talking about: Social Security isn't the disease. It's the first symptom you can put a date on. The same math driving the 2032 cliff is pushing federal debt past its World War II record and turning interest payments into the single largest line item in the entire federal budget by 2047.

"Washington will fix it in time" isn't a plan. It's hope. And hope isn't a strategy for your retirement.

When Optimism Becomes a Risk

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Nearly every quarter, Wall Street lowers the bar right before earnings season.

It's not a conspiracy — it's self-preservation. An analyst who calls 2% growth and sees 3% looks smart. Call 3% and get 2%, and you were wrong. So estimates drift down, companies "beat," and everyone celebrates.

This quarter, the opposite happened. Analysts raised earnings expectations by 3.4%, just the 10th time in the last 34 quarters they've moved the bar up instead of down.

Here's why that matters: when the bar goes up, the good news is already priced in. The reward for clearing it shrinks, and the cost of missing it climbs. Last quarter, companies that missed got punished nearly twice as hard as the five-year norm.

Optimism, it turns out, can be its own kind of risk.

The Great Rebalancing: Part II

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 11:00:00 -0500

The Magnificent 7 are down over 10% since October 29th. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are up nearly 15%. That's a 25-point gap. And almost no one is talking about it.

This week's Weekly Insight breaks down the eight-month rotation that's reshaping portfolios:

→ Why "Technology" leading the sector charts isn't the Mag 7 comeback it looks like
→ The Q1 earnings number that looked like 52% growth, but wasn't
→ What a 33x vs. 20x P/E comparison tells you about where the value actually is

We called this in February. The data says there's runway left.

The Warsh Standard

Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0500

The Fed spent the better part of a decade talking too much.

On Wednesday, Kevin Warsh signaled that era is over.

His first press conference as Fed Chairman didn't just announce a rate hold. It announced a philosophy — one that's fundamentally different from anything we've seen in the Powell era:

Forward guidance: gone
Warsh's own dot plot projection: withheld entirely
Five task forces launched to rebuild the Fed from first principles

The market sold off. That's not surprising — markets have been conditioned to feed off Fed language. Warsh just said the feeding stops.

Four years ago we wrote a memo called "The Circular Sentiment Firing Squad." The argument: the Fed was watching the market, the market was watching the Fed, and nobody was actually leading.

Warsh said almost exactly the same thing from the podium Wednesday:

"Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, then we're taking the most important source of information and being blind to it."

That's the whole problem. In one sentence.

$235 Billion Has to Come from Somewhere

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0500

The Chokepoint (Revisited)

Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0500

Three months ago we published a memo called "The Chokepoint" — written the morning the U.S. started bombing Iran. We laid out exactly what a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would do to oil prices, inflation, and global GDP.

This week we went back and checked our work.

The market has hit all-time highs. Brent crude pulled back from $138. The ceasefire has been enough — for now.

But the Strait is still effectively closed. The economic impacts we projected are materializing. And the buffers keeping the worst-case scenario at bay are getting thinner.

SpaceX IPO: Go/No-Go?

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Everyone wants SpaceX shares. The phones haven't stopped.

So, we did what we always do: we looked at the data first.

What is SpaceX actually selling? Three businesses. One is wildly profitable. One is losing money. One is a $6.4 billion annual cash furnace that every major AI company is running right now. The $1.75 trillion price tag wraps all three together and asks you to believe in a future that doesn't fully exist (yet).

We also dug into what IPO history actually tells us. Dr. Jay Ritter at the University of Florida has tracked IPO performance for decades. The pattern is remarkably consistent: big pop on Day 1, meaningful underperformance for the next three years. Cerebras went public two weeks ago at $185, opened at $350, and is already trading at $233. The largest IPO in history will not be immune to that dynamic.

And then there's the macro question nobody's fully answering: three IPOs — SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — targeting nearly $200 billion in combined raises over the next five months. The entire U.S. IPO market raised $45 billion in all of 2025. That money has to come from somewhere.

The Space in the Middle

Mon, 18 May 2026 17:00:00 -0500

Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest reading since 1952. The lowest in history.

At the same time, Redbook same-store sales just spiked to 9.6% — one of the strongest retail readings in years.

Both of those things are true simultaneously. And that gap is exactly where the most important question in the market lives right now.

Avoiding the Hidden Inheritance Tax

Mon, 11 May 2026 12:00:00 -0500

Most families spend years worrying about the estate tax.

Here's the reality: fewer than 2,000 deaths will trigger a federal estate tax payment this year. That’s 0.07% of all estates.

The tax your heirs will actually pay isn't in the estate code. It's sitting inside your IRA. And there's a limited window — retirement to age 73 — to do something about it.

The Math Problem: What Do Rising Gas Prices Really Mean?

Mon, 04 May 2026 12:00:00 -0500

Two politicians. Same day. Completely opposite claims about what gas prices are doing to American households.

Rep. Ro Khanna: $5,000 per household.

Treasury Secretary Bessent: "All cylinders are firing. Gas prices are coming down."

Both are wrong.

So, this week we did the actual math.

The real number is approximately $1,400 per year — or $117 a month — for the average household. That's the direct pump cost plus the hidden pass-through costs most people never connect to gas: freight, packaging, petrochemicals, home energy. Costs that show up weeks later as a 3-cent increase on a box of cereal or a slightly higher utility bill. And — critically — costs that don't reverse as quickly as the pump price when gas eventually falls.

But the more important number is what $1,400 means when you put it next to what wages have actually done.

Nominal wages are up 3.5%. Inflation is running at 3.3%. That leaves the median household with roughly a $245 real raise this year. When the energy burden gets added, real purchasing power turns negative for the first time since 2022 — across every income quartile, just at very different magnitudes.

And that's before we get to what falling real wages have historically meant for the economy. Or why the market's current position near all-time highs is worth thinking about carefully.

Being Right Isn't Enough

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 12:00:00 -0500

John Maynard Keynes may be the most influential economist who ever lived.

He was right about Versailles. Right about the Depression. He redesigned the global financial system at Bretton Woods.

He also lost his entire fortune in the market.

His lesson: it doesn't matter how right you are. If the market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent, you lose.

LTCM had two Nobel laureates. Lost 90% of investor capital in four months — being right.

Julian Robertson closed his fund on the exact day the Nasdaq peaked — being right.

George Soros — greatest macro trader of the 20th century — bought at the top — after being right for too long.

The Market Moved On. The Strait Didn’t.

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Nine trading days.

That's how long it took the S&P 500 to recover every point it lost since the Iran war began.

The COVID crash — which was considered one of the fastest recoveries in market history — took 104 trading days. Twelve times longer.

The market's message is clear: this conflict is a disruption, not a recession. Recession odds in prediction markets never came close to what we saw during last year's trade war or the government shutdown.

We agree — mostly.

Here's what the market isn't pricing: the Strait of Hormuz can reopen Wednesday and 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity still takes five years to repair. Half of Iraq's oil production could restart within days. Kuwait's refineries could take months. Those are very different timelines — and only one of them is in the price.

The Next Big Thing(s)

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 11:00:00 -0500

A significant amount of Qatar's LNG just went offline for 3-5 years.

Canadian LNG just came online.

The market hasn't connected those dots yet — but it will.

That's one of three opportunities we're building toward in this week's memo. The others: Emerging Markets, where a war-driven selloff has created a 6.6 percentage point gap vs. the S&P 500. And small caps — but not the index everyone uses.

The war dominates the headlines. The next big things are hiding just underneath them.

We've Been Here Before

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Five Trump announcements about the Iran war. Five market rallies. Every single one fully reversed within a week.

By Friday, the market didn't even bother with a rally.

That's the story of the last month. The market’s been trading the rhetoric, not the facts on the ground. But Friday, the market has stopped buying it.

But here's what matters more: we've seen this movie before.

Almost exactly six years ago, we were holding an energy MLP fund that was down more than 70% while the S&P was down 34%. Everyone told us we were wrong. We held. We bought more. Our clients stayed the course.

From that COVID low through today, that position has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 85%.

The Iran war is not COVID. But the behavioral finance lesson is identical. Fear is loudest exactly when patience pays the most.

Nobody Knows – But Somebody Blinked

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0500

Part of the problem with drafting these memos is the news can change quickly.

When we wrote this on Sunday night, we noted: “If the deadline passes without significant escalation, it may end proving Trump’s Friday missive. It may be the biggest offramp yet.”

Monday morning — somebody blinked.

Trump announced "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and postponed all strikes on Iranian power plants for five days.

Iran denied the negotiations. Then their state TV declared victory.

The market read right through it. Equities: up sharply. Oil: down sharply.

Three weeks ago, Goldman said buy the dip. Last week, Goldman said oil above $100 through 2027. This morning, the market is pricing something different.

We don't know how this ends. But we knew what to watch — and one of those signals fired today.

Can't Hide From Earnings Season

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0500

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo removed 7% of the world's oil supply. It gave us gas lines, 11% inflation, and interest rates that eventually hit 20%. It defined a decade.

The Strait of Hormuz closure is removing 20%.

And yet — Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2026 have not moved one inch since the war began. The S&P is down 3.6%.

That gap is about to close. Q1 earnings season starts in three weeks. That's when CFOs stop speculating and start putting real numbers on a world that changed February 28.

Airlines that modeled $88/barrel oil. Trucking companies eating a 36% diesel spike. Retailers watching consumer confidence collapse as gas prices jump 69 cents in two weeks.

The market is betting on a swift resolution. Maybe it's right. But hope isn't a forecast — and earnings season doesn't care about hope.

The Old Playbook Doesn’t Apply

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 12:00:00 -0500

The Chokepoint

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0600

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide.

20% of the world's oil flows through it every day. As of Saturday, it's effectively closed.

We've been warning about this exact scenario since April 2024. Now it's here.

In this week's memo, we break down:

→ Why the U.S. Navy can control the Strait but can't make shippers transit it

→ Why pipeline alternatives only solve 13% of the problem

→ The natural gas crisis no one is talking about (Qatar's LNG has NO alternative route)

→ What $125/bbl oil means for GDP and inflation

→ How we've positioned portfolios for exactly this kind of disruption

The situation is developing fast. What comes next matters more than what happened Saturday.

From Luddites to Language Models: Why the World Isn’t Ending

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0600

Is AI going to end the world? Destroy every software company? Bankrupt the biggest tech companies on earth?

If you've watched the news lately, you'd think the answer to all three is yes.

Here's the problem: the math doesn't work. You can't be right about all of them at once.

This week we go all the way back to the Luddites — 19th century textile workers who literally smashed machines trying to stop the future — to explain why this moment feels scarier than it is, and what history actually tells us about how technological revolutions end.

Spoiler: it's not the way the headlines suggest.

The Dollar Trilemma (And Why Precious Metals Just Tanked)

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0600

Markets have been pricing in a weaker dollar for months. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin all jumped in value. And traders were expecting a Fed chair announcement that would continue that theme. Instead, they got Kevin Warsh – a hawk whose resume screams “strong dollar”.

The result? More than $8 trillion in paper wealth vaporized as gold, silver and Bitcoin all retreated. But the issues that caused the price spike haven’t gone away.

The Great Rebalancing

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 11:00:00 -0600

Great earnings aren’t enough anymore. The market is telling us something – and it’s been saying it for 90 days.

Financial Stoicism

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0600

We had a wild start to the market last week. Markets fell. Headlines screamed. Fear spiked. But by week’s end, nothing had actually changed. It seems like that same cycle is happening more frequently. And it turns out, there is some ancient wisdom that can help us manage it.

The Biggest Thing Nobody Is Talking About

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 09:00:00 -0600

The market is obsessed with AI. But nobody is asking the right question: why is AI worth trillions of dollars? What problem is it solving? This week, we dive into the biggest structural shift in the global economy that no one is discussing – and the investment opportunities it will create.

Oil Still Matters

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:00:00 -0600

As we dive into the new year, markets have continued their solid pace. But there is plenty of international intrigue that has reminded investors of the importance – and drama! – in fossil fuels.

2025: Lessons Learned

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 -0600

As we wrap up the year, it would be easy to just say, “It was a great year in the markets! See you in 2026!” But as we prepared the year-end Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we thought it would be a good time to focus on the lessons we learned this year. And, more importantly, how they might apply to future years that might not be so wonderful.

Can 2026 Continue the Trend?

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 14:00:00 -0600

Barring a complete collapse in the next nine days, 2025 will mark just the sixth time in history that we’ve seen double digit returns in the S&P 500 for three consecutive years. Four years in a row is even more rare (it’s happened three times). And yet, as we told you last week, market prognosticators are expecting another double digit year in the market in 2026.

Wind Chill

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 14:00:00 -0600

It was a frigid weekend in Iowa. Which may be why an article we read about the “Windchill Economy” caught our attention. But the facts of the article – that how people feel about the economy today is much different than how it’s actually working – got us thinking. How predictive is the consumer's feelings about the economy? And how does it differ from what Wall Street is saying?

Eyes on the Bond Market

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0600

We spend a lot of time talking about equities in this business. But not nearly enough time is devoted to the bond market. Interestingly, it’s the larger of the two markets. And it is a great “canary in the coal mine” about where the market thinks the economy is heading.

Feeling Charitable?

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0600

The holidays are upon us! And with that comes a race to the end of the year. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we’re taking a break from the market commentary and instead looking at some good year-end planning tools that you may find beneficial.

Age-Old Investment Advice

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 12:00:00 -0600

The Two Economies

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 15:00:00 -0600

We spend a lot of time talking about how companies are doing in this economy. And as Q3 earnings reports are wrapping up, the answer is “quite well!”. But there is a whole other side to the economy that matters even more: the consumer.

What's Going On?

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 10:00:00 -0600

Most people in the world are “headline readers”. There’s simply not enough time in a reader’s day to get past the headline and do the research. Which is why the headline we saw on Friday (“Stocks Worst November Since ‘08”) was enough to raise some hackles. Anytime someone draws a direct correlation between the current environment and 2008 it causes a visceral reaction amongst investors (and in our office!). But a little homework goes a long way.

Fed Signals & Tech Turbulence

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 09:00:00 -0600

The market news last week was enough to give you whiplash. The Fed cut rates (Yay!). Powell intimated no more cuts in December (Boo!). Tech earnings were solid (Yay!). Some tech companies were punished for their AI spend (Boo!). But what does this all mean for the market in the weeks and months to come?

Fed Certainty

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 09:00:00 -0500

It’s Fed Week again. And by every measure, it seems certain we’re going to get another rate cut. But what should we make about the market’s certainty (100%!) that rate cuts will continue in December and into 2026?

The Investment Risk in AI

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Over the last several weeks, there has been a proliferation of articles and commentators questioning the extremely large capital expenditures of AI firms as they ramp up their capacity. It’s a saying as old as time: you have to spend money to make money. But how much patience will investors have as the large AI firms spend hundreds of billions to build out their AI capacity.

Shut It Down?

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 14:00:00 -0500

It’s shutdown time in Washington, D.C. again. It’s always a dramatic time in the news. But is it something that should concern us as it relates to portfolios?

This Time It's Different

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 11:00:00 -0500

The four most dangerous words in the world of finance are, “This time it’s different.” We’ve heard it time and again. And time and again it’s not true. So when we start hearing that higher P/E ratios for the market are the “new normal”, we’re understandably skeptical. But we can’t just ignore the data behind it.

Don't Get Too Excited (About Rate Cuts)

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 11:00:00 -0500

We know we’re not breaking any news when we tell you Chairman Powell and the Fed cut rates last week. The long-anticipated cut was received very well by markets which closed the week at all-time highs on Friday. It’s the next logical leap the market has taken – that this is the start of a prolonged period of rate cuts – which may be a bit farfetched.

The Two Types of Corrections

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 11:00:00 -0500

The Fed is meeting this week and expected to cut rates. In the media’s calculus this should be good for markets. But it wasn’t particularly good the last time they cut rates. So what happens if the market pulls back?

A Court Battle Over Tariffs

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 13:00:00 -0500

The markets brought us a little bit of everything last week, but ended on a positive note. As fast as the news cycle moves, it seems most had forgotten by Tuesday that there was a very big court decision on tariffs the previous Friday. This week, we take a dive into that ruling to see what we can learn about the future of trade policy and how it may impact markets.

Powell's Predicament

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Jerome Powell’s annual address in Jackson Hole has become must-see TV for market watchers in recent years. In 2022, he used it to sternly put the market back in its place on rate expectations. Since then, it has been looked upon with a mix of optimism and trepidation. His last Jackson Hole speech – last Friday – was no different. But this isn’t 2022. Instead, he presented a cautiously dovish case.

CPI’s Oft-Forgotten Cousin

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 12:00:00 -0500

The big news in the markets last week was the CPI data. It was a bit of a mixed report. If you were looking for good news, it was there. The same goes for bad news. But the report we found more interesting last week was that of CPI’s long lost cousin: PPI.

The State of the Consumer

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 12:00:00 -0500

As the financial world obsesses about tariffs, we got to thinking about who these tariffs might impact: consumers. As regular readers of our memos know, the U.S. consumer is a powerful economic force. Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of GDP. So as tariffs begin to be implemented, how well is the U.S. consumer prepared?

Where's the Impact of Tariffs?

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:00:00 -0500

The story of 2025 has been tariffs. And yet, despite a significant market correction in April, markets have recovered nicely. But the tariff discussion isn’t over yet. They are happening. And there is no question they will have some level of impact on the economy.

The 24-Hour Market Cycle

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 12:00:00 -0500

In politics, they frequently refer to the 24-hour news cycle. The flood of information it creates presents opportunities – and hazards – for candidates. The same cycle exists for the market. And right now, we’re in the midst of a nice swell of “good news”. But what could be the catalyst to change that?

What's Different About Tariffs Today?

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 13:00:00 -0500

The White House came out firing on tariffs last week. New tariffs were announced for the E.U., Mexico, Canada and a number of other countries. But the response from Wall Street was very different from the last time we did this. Instead of the pullback we saw on Liberation Day, markets were largely flat for the week. So what gives? Why the different response? And what does this mean for your portfolio?

One Big Beautiful Podcast

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 11:00:00 -0500

While the Nation was celebrating our 249th birthday over the weekend, Republicans in Congress were busy passing President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”. It is, as the name implies, BIG! At 897 pages, we haven’t read it all (yet). But we did dive into it over the weekend to better understand the big issues that will impact you.

The Enduring Strength of America

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:00:00 -0500

Well, that wasn’t the week anyone expected, was it? The U.S. bombs Iran and oil prices…go down? It’s a good reminder that there is no crystal ball to predict the market’s future. But there are some things we can bet on that have staying power. And one is the strength of the United States economy. In this edition of the Weekly Insight, we look back at Warren Buffett’s comments from a few years ago about his unwavering conclusion: “Never bet against the America”. That’s not some nationalistic propaganda – there is good economic data to back his approach.

1973 Redux?

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 11:00:00 -0500

The weekend was full of geopolitical drama. As you likely know by now, the United States struck Iran in an effort to eliminate their nuclear program. That leaves two important questions: What does this mean for the economy and markets? How are portfolios at Insight positioned for any potential troubles?

One-Handed Economists

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 15:00:00 -0500

All you have to do today is turn on a TV, or open a website, or listen to a podcast and you will be flooded with folks absolutely certain about their latest read on the market and the economy. Inflation is coming! The market is crashing! You know what we’re talking about. But the problem is the study of economics never offers those certainties – even if they play well in our hot take society.

The Waiting Game

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 12:00:00 -0500

This is a weird time for markets. To some degree, it seems like there is so much going on. The volume is cranked to a 10. One needs only look at last week’s spat between two very powerful men which lead the market to be off by nearly 1% in a day. But do those moments really matter? We’d argue they don’t in the long run. But we’re going to have to be patient for the big items that are going to move the market.

Timing Isn't Everything

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:00:00 -0500

As May wrapped up last week, the financial world was touting the month as the best performing May since 1990. That’s great news! But it’s also an artifact of timing. If you stretch the window you’re measuring out to the beginning of the year, things don’t look as good. The market is essentially flat. But we take a longer view on portfolio health than a week, a month, or a year. We’re working to build successful investment strategies for the long haul. Which is why we made some fairly significant changes in two of our strategies last week.

Far From Completed Agreements

Mon, 19 May 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Last week started with the big news that the U.S. and China had agreed to a temporary reduction in tariffs. The market rallied and ended the week up more than 5%. But, as much as the market would love to assume we can move on to the next conversation, there is much yet to be determined regarding trade policy.

The Fed's Dry Powder

Mon, 12 May 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Last week was Fed week which is always must-see TV at Insight (whether we like it or not). Unlike the last few years, this meeting was largely without market drama. But it did leave us with some interesting tidbits to understand the interplay between the Fed – holding dry powder for a potential recession – and the ongoing discussion on tariffs. What did we learn? The Fed still thinks the economy is “solid”, but they’re also seriously worried about “uncertainty” on the policy front. What does that mean for rates and the market going forward?

Choose Your Own Economy

Mon, 05 May 2025 18:00:00 -0500

Most Of The Time The World Doesn't End

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 14:00:00 -0500

The volume today around the markets and the state of the world is at a “10”. You can go to any news source you want and you’ll find some version of “The sky is falling!” or “The world is ending!” sentiment. But here’s the thing: the world hasn’t ended yet and – as pointed out by famed investor Howard Marks – the planning necessary to avoid the pain when the world ends is 1) impossible; and 2) would be catastrophic to a portfolio if the world doesn’t end.

Three Big Things: Tariffs

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 12:00:00 -0500

If you’ve been paying attention to our commentary over the years, you know we believe strongly that there are some “big things” in the world that must be understood to be a successful investor.

Survival of the Fittest

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 11:00:00 -0500

We all survived yet another week of wild swings in the market. Today (so far!), they’re the good kind. Last week, it was a bit of both. And while we could continue to retread the ground covered in-depth on tariff policy, we thought we’d go a different direction. This week we wanted to dive into the psychology of the markets – specifically the psychology of loss – and address why you’re not well suited for it. None of us are.

But with the right information, we can start to understand why our genetic makeup is battling against the best decisions you can make for your portfolio. And hopefully it can help alleviate a bit of the stress of moments like these.

Fortitude

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 11:00:00 -0500

The topic of these week’s memo and podcast won’t surprise you: tariffs. And it would probably be good business to tell you we have all the answers for what the market is going to do in response over the coming weeks. The truth is this: no one has those answers. But we do know how we need to respond, because history has taught us this lesson before.

Liberation Day?

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 11:00:00 -0500

The market is awaiting President Trump’s “Liberation Day” decisions on tariffs this week. But to assume this is the end of the discussion – or the end of the volatility – is likely folly.

Transitory

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 11:00:00 -0500

Transitory. Powell uttered that word again. The last time he did so, it didn’t work out too well. But while tariff driven inflation is not yet a thing, we do know one thing that’s transitory: market downturns. Which is why we made some changes in our portfolios last week.

What Does a Recession Mean for the Market?

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 13:00:00 -0500

Is a recession coming? Are we already in one? And what does that mean for portfolios? The answers to some of these questions (especially the last one) are likely going to surprise you.

Drama

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 13:00:00 -0600

The drama around the market (and pretty much everything else these days…) seems to be ramped up to a 10. We had a good inflation report? Yay! A bad GDP report? The world is ending! Maybe, just maybe, everything doesn’t need to be so…dramatic.

5 Years Later

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 13:00:00 -0600

Five years ago today, we wrote our first “Weekly Insight Memo” in response to the onset of COVID. It’s funny looking back on it how little we all knew about what was about to happen. But in re-reading that memo, there are some important parallels to what’s happening in the market today. And what might move markets for the rest of the year.

Trade War

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 13:00:00 -0600

The world shouldn’t have been surprised when the Trump Administration announced sweeping tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. But it sure caught the market off-guard. As did the quick reversal of those tariffs. But as much as the market’s reaction matters to your portfolio, we saw some interesting consumer reactions late last week that are worth watching closely.

Hubris

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 12:00:00 -0600

Financial markets can be humbling. And they can make you pay for hubris. Tech investors found that out the hard way last week with the release of DeepSeek’s new AI tool. In this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast we take a look at the changing landscape in AI and what a new Chinese competitor means for the stock market.

The Powell Effect vs. The Trump Effect

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 12:00:00 -0600

The market has been focused on the (quite significant) action coming out of the Trump Administration over the last week. And so far, it has liked what it’s seen. Markets had their best first week of a new Administration since January 1985. But this week, we’re going to get a dose of reality. A huge week in earnings, combined with the first Fed meeting of 2025 will force the market to refocus on fundamentals.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-powell-effect-vs-the-trump-effect/

The First 100 Days

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 11:00:00 -0600

It’s Inauguration Day. A time that is a celebration of our democratic republic. But also a time of uncertainty as we look to the future. Markets – as we’ve frequently said – hate uncertainty.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-first-100-days/

Patience

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 13:00:00 -0600

Nearly five years ago, we sent our first “Weekly Insight” to provide clients with information about the early stages of the COVID pandemic. The key lesson from that time was that – while we certainly didn’t get everything right – the patience our clients had during the pandemic was key to portfolio success. While certainly not on the same scale, we’re entering another one of those “patience” moments in the market as investors adjust to changes in expectations around inflation and interest rates.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience/

Is the "Shift" Coming in 2025?

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 12:00:00 -0600

The holidays are over. The end of the year wrap-ups and 2025 look ahead articles have been written. Now it's time to get on to the work of 2025.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-the-shift-coming-in-2025/

A Look Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 14:00:00 -0600

Oops...He Did It Again

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 11:00:00 -0600

The last Fed meeting of the year was last week. And the results were…interesting. We got exactly what everyone expected and… the market hated it. Why? To paraphrase the poet/philosopher Britney Spears: Oops…Powell did it again!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-oops-he-did-it-again/

Is Powell Bringing Presents?

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 13:00:00 -0600

As we near the end of the year, this week will see the last “big” economic news: the Fed’s final meeting of 2024 and the subsequent release of their year-end Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This SEP – and Powell’s subsequent comments – are going to go a long way for setting the tone for the economy as we enter 2025.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-powell-bringing-presents/

Correlation and Causation, McRib Style

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 13:00:00 -0600

We’ve heard of some crazy metrics in the market before. There are traders and analysts everywhere who will try to tell you that the market’s success or failure is tied to some obscure metric. The truth is, they can show you example after example of when X happened, Y happened. But there is a big difference between there being a correlation between those two events and X causing Y to happen. And that brings us to today’s topic: the McRib. Did you know its release is a strong indicator of stock market success? 😊 Sort of. It’s also a really interesting story.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-correlation-and-causation-mcrib-style/

Don't Trust the Crystal Ball

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 11:00:00 -0600

As we enter the final stretch of 2024, we begin to hear from the great prognosticators their predictions for how next year is going to play out in the markets. As these reports start to roll in, we thought we’d look at how well the experts predicted 2024 market outcomes. We think you’ll find the results interesting. And we hope they will color your view of the next round crystal ball polishing we’re about to see.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-dont-trust-the-crystal-ball/

Can They DOGE It?

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 13:00:00 -0600

Readers of our commentary have known for a long time where we stand on the Federal debt. The rapidly growing problem has long-term consequences which will eventually be borne by all of us. And there has been little effort by either party to enact meaningful solutions. But now an unlikely pair of fiscal hawks – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – have been tasked by President-elect Trump with fixing the problem. Is it fixable? And will their proposed solutions work?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-can-they-doge-it/

Shifting Expectations

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 11:00:00 -0600

In the last edition of the Weekly Insight, we suggested that the market might be venturing into an “overbought” position and suggested it may need a bit of a breather before it made another step forward. We got just that last week as the market focus shifted from the election back to the topics that have been moving markets for the last few years: the Fed, interest rates, and inflation.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-shifting-expectations/

Post-Election Priorities

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 10:00:00 -0600

Well, the election is behind us. Some Americans are very happy. Some are very unhappy. But, no matter what, the economy keeps moving and we need to keep moving with it.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-post-election-priorities/

The Finish Line

Mon, 04 Nov 2024 11:00:00 -0600

Tomorrow is a big day. And for many of us, it seems like the finish line for a long and grueling process. Sadly, when it comes to politics, there is no finish line. There will be more contentious issues to tackle after the election is done. And the same goes for the market and the economy. The FOMC is going to remind us of that later this week when they meet on Thursday to make their next interest rate decision.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-finish-line/

Positioning for the Post-Election World

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 11:00:00 -0500

We’re almost there. Just eight days to go until we can put this election behind us. But we also have to remember that elections matter in portfolios. This week, we look at one of the big areas where we might see immediate impacts to the market following the election: tax policy. The shape of this election will impact what happens to the soon-to-expire Tax Cut and Jobs Act from 2017.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-positioning-for-the-post-election-world/

There's More Than an Election

Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:00:00 -0500

You’d be forgiven for thinking the only thing happening in the world today is the Presidential election coming up in just over two weeks. It seems that’s all any pundit is talking about. But the truth is, there is a lot happening impacting financial markets that has absolutely nothing to do with who gets sworn into office on January 20, 2025.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-theres-more-than-an-election/

Is Good News Good News Again?

Mon, 14 Oct 2024 13:00:00 -0500

As they say, the only thing constant in the world is change. And we’re seeing an interesting change in how the market perceives economic news. You’ll recall many conversations in the pages of the Weekly Insight over the last few years about how “good news” was bad for the market as we battled inflation. That may not be true anymore.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-good-news-good-news-again/

28 Miles of Angst

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 12:00:00 -0500

The world sure seems full of worry today, doesn’t it? It doesn’t help that we have two Presidential candidates fear mongering for votes. But there are things we should worry about in portfolios and things that really don’t move the needle. One that deserves our attention right now is the situation in the Middle East and the potential for a disruption in oil supplies.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-28-miles-of-angst/

What if They're Wrong?

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 13:00:00 -0500

It finally happened! The Fed cut rates last week. And not just a 0.25% cut. We got the full 0.50%, which was larger than many anticipated. That brings up many questions, but the biggest is the simplest: what if they’re wrong? What if the Fed has misjudged this moment? What would it mean for the economy and for portfolios?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-theyre-wrong/

The K-Shaped Recovery

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 12:00:00 -0500

As we head into Fed Week (a very important Fed Week!), we thought it might be a good time to step back and look at the economy as a whole. We’re in an interesting moment. Economic growth continues to excel at a time when citizens of our country overwhelmingly say the economy is not succeeding. Where is the disconnect? And what does it mean for the future?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-k-shaped-recovery/

Worst Week Ever (*this year…)

Mon, 09 Sep 2024 14:00:00 -0500

Did you feel that? That was the market’s worst week in 2024. Down 4.22% in a week. Well worse than we saw even at the beginning of August.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-worst-week-ever/

Stealth QE

Tue, 03 Sep 2024 13:00:00 -0500

Would it surprise you if we told you the party in power in Washington will use its power to juice the economy prior to an election? It shouldn’t. Both parties have been doing it for years. But the current Administration is taking a novel approach to this task that some are calling “Stealth QE”. It’s impacting the markets today (in a good way), but it may have longer term consequences which would impact your portfolio.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stealth-qe/

One Down, Two to Go?

Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:00:00 -0500

The market’s recovery last week continued and – with the exception of Big Tech – has left us back where we started before the downturn started in July. That move was further spurred by Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday where he basically announced rate cuts are coming in September. That’s all good news, but how does this change our outlook on risk in portfolios?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-one-down-two-to-go/

Overprecision

Mon, 19 Aug 2024 11:00:00 -0500

We’ve all done it before: get so sucked into an idea that we miss the big picture. It happens in the markets time and again. Author and expert in behavioral investing Daniel Crosby has a term for it: Overprecision. He defines it as “excessive certainty in the precision of private beliefs”.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-overprecision/

The Panic That Wasn't

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 11:00:00 -0500

At the beginning of last week it seemed panic was starting to settle into the market. The momentum created by the “bad” jobs report on August 2nd fed into a historically bad day in the Nikkei which lead into Monday’s open. The rout was on…until it wasn’t.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-panic-that-wasnt/

Why All the Volatility?

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 11:00:00 -0500

What a morning it’s been for the markets! Volatility has spiked and the Dow plummeted nearly 1,000 points at the open this morning.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-why-all-the-volatility/

Cuts Are Coming... Now What?

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 13:00:00 -0500

Fed week is upon us yet again, but there is little question what Chairman Powell and company are going to do this week: not much. Barring any surprises, the market is set for the first rate cut to begin in September. But what, exactly, does that mean for the markets and your portfolio? How have rate cuts impacted the economy in the past?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cuts-are-coming-now-what/

Crowd Struck

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 12:00:00 -0500

Well, where do we start this week? There’s earnings season. Or the rotation from mega cap tech stocks to the rest of the market. Or the sitting President who just dropped out of the race 107 days before Election Day. Or how about the greatest IT failure in the history of…well…computers.

Panic or Certainty?

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 12:00:00 -0500

Where do we even start? Love Trump or hate him, there’s no denying we just experienced a dark weekend in American history. There is no place in a democracy for these kinds of disgusting acts. But as crass as it may seem, you come to us to understand how events will impact your portfolio.

The Math Doesn't Lie

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 11:00:00 -0500

It isn’t often we get politicians from the left and the right uniting on an important issue. But it’s happening right now. Leading Democrats and Republicans – including both Presidential candidates – are committing to no changes in the Social Security and Medicare system. The only problem is…the math.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-math-doesnt-lie/

A Messy Presidential Election

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 12:00:00 -0500

Maybe it’s appropriate that, just a week before Independence Day, American politics took yet another messy turn. We could debate for days the best outcome of our upcoming Presidential election – but what our readers/listeners are more concerned about is what the latest drama may mean for the market.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-messy-presidential-election/

What's the Deal with NVIDIA?

Mon, 24 Jun 2024 10:00:00 -0500

We've all heard about NVIDIA. The A.I. microchip maker is the darling of the stock market, up nearly 200% in the last year, and now officially the second largest company in the S&P 500. But what's the story? And should we be concerned about what it could mean for the market on the downside?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-the-deal-with-nvidia/

They Don't Believe You

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 09:00:00 -0500

The Fed was back last week. And their meeting timed up perfectly with the release of the latest CPI data. Chair Powell and his crew said what everyone expected: they reduced their planned rate cuts for 2024 from three to one. And…no one believes them. Which is a bit of a recurring (if inaccurate!) theme over the last two years.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-they-dont-believe-you/

This Little Kitty Roars

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 12:00:00 -0500

We spend a lot of time at Insight delving through economic data, research on companies, analysis of market trends, etc., etc. But every now and then, something happens in the market where we are just…dumbfounded. Why did this happen? Who benefits from it happening? What the heck is a Roaring Kitty? Well…this week we’re going to dive right into one of those weird events and break down the story of Roaring Kitty and GameStop. It’s a fascinating story and, while it doesn’t impact Insight clients directly, serves as a cautionary tale of how getting caught with the herd can prove dangerous.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-this-little-kitty-roars/

It's Getting Weird

Mon, 03 Jun 2024 09:00:00 -0500

We had a longtime friend of the firm who was famous for his tagline: “Let’s make it weird!”. He loved the awkward or absurd. Well, he would have loved last week. Markets trying to figure out how to digest the incoming economic information while at the same time processing the conviction of a former President – and current presidential candidate – on 34 felony counts was, if nothing else, weird. Weird in the market means uncertainty. And uncertainty means volatility.

It Could Be an Interesting Summer

Tue, 28 May 2024 10:00:00 -0500

It’s been a tremendously good start to the year in markets. But with the Fed hitting the delay button and the election season upon us, the potential for volatility is rising. This week we made some significant changes in our portfolio strategies to address these concerns.

Taking Some Winnings

Mon, 20 May 2024 09:00:00 -0500

There’s an old saying in the market: “Sell in May and go away”. If only it were that easy, we’d do it every year. But it’s not. This May, however, there seems to be a confluence of great market returns with some potential drivers of volatility that are forcing us to look closely at our portfolio strategies in the coming weeks.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-taking-some-winnings/

The Importance of Negative Returns

Mon, 13 May 2024 10:00:00 -0500

As of this morning, the S&P 500 is just 40 points off its all-time high. It’s been a remarkably good run since the market bottomed in September of 2022. But upside is an easy conversation. Negative returns – and the exponential benefit of avoiding them – is a much harder conversation.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-importance-of-negative-returns/

On Base Percentage

Mon, 06 May 2024 08:00:00 -0500

We have some big baseball fans at Insight. And those who are fans of the game know that the flashy plays – i.e. home runs – may put butts in the seats, but it’s the boring stuff like On Base Percentage (OBP) that wins games over a long season. There is a direct correlation between that idea and building a sustainable, long-lasting investment portfolio.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-on-base-percentage/

A Busy, Busy Week

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 09:00:00 -0500

It’s going to be a busy week in the market. Normally that crops up when we have a Fed meeting – as we do on Wednesday. But this Fed meeting is likely to be…uneventful. Everyone already knows they’re not cutting rates. Instead, the excitement this week comes from 175 companies – fully 35% - of the S&P 500 reporting earnings. And if the trend from previous weeks continues, that should be very good for the market.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-busy-busy-week/

The Next Recession

Mon, 22 Apr 2024 09:00:00 -0500

In last week’s edition of the Weekly Insight, we encouraged you to buck the trend and take a “deep breath” as the market experienced a bit of volatility. We’re still strongly in that camp – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking out into the future and assessing the risks over the horizon.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-next-recession/

Deep Breaths

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 09:00:00 -0500

The start of April hasn’t been fun (which seems like a silly thing to write on Tax Day…is it ever fun?). More stress about inflation. War clouds looming in the Middle East. This is one of those moments when things in the market can start to feel scary. But just how bad has it been? And what kind of impact are these issues starting to have on the market?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-deep-breaths/

A Sometimes Bubbly Path

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 08:00:00 -0500

The market had one of its worst weeks of the year last week. And the why was familiar – even if it was something we were hoping to have behind us. The economic news we received was just a bit too good for investors liking. PMI data, GDP expectations, and jobs data all combined to raise concerns that the Fed won’t be cutting interest rates.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-sometimes-bubbly-path/

Devil on Your Back

Mon, 01 Apr 2024 08:00:00 -0500

We’ve had a lot of different devils on our back the last four years: COVID, inflation, bear markets, etc., etc. Which is likely why this moment feels a bit…weird. As we enter a fairly unassuming earnings season (3.6% growth in earnings expected), there just isn’t a big problem lurking around the corner…yet. Will that leave us some runway for the next month or two?

Slowing the Run Off

Mon, 25 Mar 2024 08:00:00 -0500

It was Fed Week last week. And it was almost a non-event. Powell & Co. didn’t change the expected path of rate cuts, and the market responded well with the S&P 500 closing the week above 5,200 for the first time ever. But there was another discussion buried below the headlines: what the Fed is going to do with its balance sheet holdings? This is an important, if not regularly discussed, topic.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-slowing-the-run-off/

Moving On (From the Fed)

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 09:00:00 -0500

For the last two years, every move the Federal Reserve makes has had a direct correlation to the performance of the stock market. This week’s Fed meeting may be no different, but some interesting things happened last week which showed the market is moving away from the Fed as the sole determinate of success or failure.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-moving-on-from-the-fed/

And So It Begins

Mon, 11 Mar 2024 08:00:00 -0500

The biggest news last week wasn’t economic, it was political. The starting gun has been fired on what will be one of the…strangest…Presidential campaigns in recent memory. And the shape of this race between two Presidents is going to impact markets, especially as we get into the summer and early fall.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-and-so-it-begins/

It's Time for a Tough Conversation

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 09:00:00 -0600

Another strong week in the market – and a great start to the year – gives us a little room to look further out into the future. And there is one $34 trillion long-term problem that causes us heartburn: the national debt.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-its-time-for-a-tough-conversation/

Minutes, Hours, Days and Years

Mon, 26 Feb 2024 08:00:00 -0600

We heard from two of the most prominent voices in finance last week: Chairman Powell (via the FOMC Minutes) and Warren Buffett (via his annual shareholder letter). It was a very good reminder of why the debates about things like “when will the Fed cut rates” are important – but not in the big picture. Mr. Buffett’s long history has some valuable insights into how we can be better investors.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-minutes-hours-days-and-years/

Politics and the Fed

Tue, 20 Feb 2024 08:00:00 -0600

We’ve talked for weeks now about the differences between the Fed’s preferred path on rate cuts and the market’s belief of what they will do. As a refresher, the Fed announced in December they believed they would cut rates three times in 2024. The market had a different view. The consensus at the time was the Fed would start rate cuts in March and would cut a total of seven times in 2024.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/politics-and-the-fed/

No Cuts Coming

Mon, 05 Feb 2024 08:00:00 -0600

Fed Week is behind us and it’s clear we’re going to be waiting on rate cuts for a bit. Powell quietly admitted we were right last week: the Fed’s key motivation is fear of being wrong. But somehow the market ended the week up strongly. Why?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-cuts-coming/

Fear at the Fed

Mon, 29 Jan 2024 08:00:00 -0600

It’s Fed week again. And while the reason has changed (when to cut rates vs. how high to raise them), what they say will have an impact on markets. And just like investors, their fears can impact their decision making.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear-at-the-fed/

A Yul Brynner Record

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 08:00:00 -0600

Equity markets hit an all-time high on Friday (and are continuing the positive direction this week). If you’re like us, that leads to the question of where is it going next?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-yul-brynner-record/

What Happens if the Consensus Is Wrong?

Mon, 15 Jan 2024 07:00:00 -0600

Inflation was back in the news last week with the latest CPI data. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we look at what that report said and what it might mean for the market as we head into the new year. How did it change the “consensus” opinion for what will happen to interest rates? And most importantly, what happens if that consensus is wrong? This may be a topic we talk a lot about this year!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-the-consensus-is-wrong/

A Slow Start

Mon, 08 Jan 2024 08:00:00 -0600

Last week was a rough start to the year with the S&P 500 down 1.52%. But what does that mean? Is a bad first week a harbinger of bad things to come? Have there been any significant changes in the expectations for the market or the economy in 2024?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-slow-start/

2024 Concerns and Opportunities

Wed, 03 Jan 2024 08:00:00 -0600

The New Year is an excellent time to take stock of things. How did last year go? What are the concerns and opportunities in the year ahead.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-2024-concerns-and-opportunities/

Old Saint Jerome

Mon, 18 Dec 2023 08:00:00 -0600

Christmas came early in the stock market last week. Old Saint Jerome and his merry band of elves decided it was time to start handing out presents. And boy did they. The latest report from the Fed has the markets feeling optimistic as we head into the end of the year.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-old-saint-jerome/

Doom

Mon, 11 Dec 2023 08:00:00 -0600

Perspective is an important thing. And even the smartest people in the world can fall victim to losing it. Take, for example, the Doomsday Clock. Set by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, it is supposed to provide scientific assessment of how close the world is to Armageddon. And today it’s set the closest we’ve ever been to midnight. We would argue those scientists have lost a bit of perspective.The same goes for the markets and the economy.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-doom/

Racing Toward the Finish

Mon, 04 Dec 2023 08:00:00 -0600

The end of the year will be here before we know it. Are you ready? In this edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we address some of the important year-end planning items you should be thinking about in December. And we also take a look at what just may be the last big hurdle to ending the year on a positive note.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-racing-toward-the-finish/

The Consumer's Not Done Yet

Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:00:00 -0600

If you have a view about the economy, there is a data set that backs it up. Optimistic? Look at earnings and wage growth! Pessimistic? Inflation and Fed policy! But in the end, there are a few really big things that matter. And the biggest of all is the health of the consumer. There is no better snapshot of the consumer than Black Friday.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-consumers-not-done-yet/

Absolute Certainty

Mon, 20 Nov 2023 08:00:00 -0600

Market sentiment is a fickle thing. And there is no question that we want to be on the right side of that sentiment when things are humming along. But there’s risk in joining the herd, especially when there is perceived certainty about the outcome. This week we take a look at where certainty is popping up in the market (Fed policy) and why that should be a reminder to keep our heads on a swivel.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-absolute-certainty/

Know Who You Are

Mon, 13 Nov 2023 08:00:00 -0600

As a firm based in central Iowa, our office is full of people who either love or hate the Iowa Hawkeyes. But even if you hate them, you have to admit that this football season has been fascinating. They have one of the worst offenses in history and have already locked in a share of the Big 10 West title. But what does this have to do with your portfolio? It turns out there are some important lessons we can learn from the offensively inept Hawkeyes about what it takes to be successful in the market.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-know-who-you-are/

One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 08:00:00 -0600

A few weeks ago, we talked about “immutable truths” in the world. Things that no one can argue about. And why – in financial markets – there really isn’t such a thing. We got a great reminder of that one Wednesday. Jerome Powell stepped to the podium after last week’s FOMC meeting and…wait for it…the market went UP! And it kept going up on Thursday and Friday. What in the world?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insig…t-like-the-other/

Beggars' Night

Mon, 30 Oct 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Tonight is Beggars' Night in Des Moines. It’s a unique Halloween tradition that was caused by a strange (and ineffective) solution to an age-old problem (misbehaving kids!). It reminds us a bit of the mess happening in Congress right now as we stare down yet another government shutdown in just 17 days. Are we going to get a spooky result?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-beggars-night/

Why 2%?

Mon, 23 Oct 2023 08:00:00 -0500

There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world. History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs. But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated. That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation? Who came up with it?

The answer to this question might surprise you.

Earnings and Israel

Mon, 16 Oct 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/

Bond Bust

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities. Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago.

But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak? That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bond-bust/

A Position to Proceed Carefully

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 08:00:00 -0500

It was Fed week again. We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room. The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday. But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-to-proceed-carefully/

Strikes and Shutdowns, Oh My!

Mon, 18 Sep 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now. The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge. But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/

The Red Dragon

Mon, 11 Sep 2023 08:00:00 -0500

There has been a lot of talk about China recently, highlighted by their newest move to ban iPhones for Chinese government employees. But the tale of the relations between the two largest economies of the world has been changing for some time now as our economic fortunes become less and less linked.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-red-dragon/

Swifties Unite

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 08:00:00 -0500

This week, we look at some very interesting economic data that came out last week including: the impact of Swifties on consumer spending, a slowly normalizing labor market, and the impact hurricanes can have on the economy.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-swifties-unite/

The More Things Change

Mon, 28 Aug 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated “Jackson Hole” speech on Friday. After last year’s hard-hitting speech on the inflation battle, this year’s comments were highly anticipated. Powell’s comments were much calmer this year, and the market loved them. But they also gave some signs about things to come.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-things-change/

August Never Fails

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 08:00:00 -0500

August has not been the best month in the markets this year. Interestingly enough, that’s consistent with nearly 40 years of history as it ranks as the worst month of market returns going back all the way to 1986. But is this the start of something bad? Or is the market just taking a breath in our current bull rally.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-august-never-fails/

The Base Case

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It was inflation week again last week – the first of two before the next Fed meeting. And the results were interesting. Some called it a “hot” reading. Others thought it wasn’t so bad. But what we did see, in both CPI and PPI, was a slight tick up. But part of that is tied to the math around the “base case”.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-base-case/

The Validity of the Public Debt

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 07:00:00 -0500

After months of the focus being on the Fed and interest rates, we got a surprise from left field: Fitch downgraded the U.S.A.’s credit rating. Given the “validity of the public debt” is quite literally written into the U.S. Constitution, it was a telling moment.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-validity-of-the-public-debt/

Are We There Yet?

Mon, 31 Jul 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It was Fed Week last week, and the market was hanging on Jerome Powell’s words at the podium.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-are-we-there-yet/

No One Cares

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 08:00:00 -0500

An interesting thing has happened since the Fed – against the belief of most of the market – announced they were going to raise rates twice more this year: no one cared. The market is up strongly since the last Fed meeting as inflation has fallen along with recession expectations. So what does that mean for this week’s Fed meeting (and likely rate increase)?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-one-cares/

Embrace the Good

Mon, 17 Jul 2023 07:00:00 -0500

Last week was a remarkable week for the markets in that – as we anticipate another rate hike next week – we got some fantastic inflation and economic data.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-embrace-the-good/

Data Dependent

Mon, 10 Jul 2023 07:00:00 -0500

We hope this week finds you well rested after the 4th of July Holiday! The market was a little sluggish last week as many on Wall Street were out for the break. But there was a lot of news from the Fed, and we are – bluntly – dumbfounded by some of their comments.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-data-dependent/

Sufficient Enough

Mon, 26 Jun 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Chairman Powell went in front of Congress last week and made sure everyone got his message: more rate hikes are coming. And the market is taking note as we push for “sufficiently restrictive” interest rate policy. But what is “sufficient”? Is the Fed just intent on ramming us into a recession? Are we close to one?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-sufficient-enough/

Threadin' the Needle

Mon, 19 Jun 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It was Fed Week last week. The long and short of it? Only Jerome Powell can make the first pause in rate hikes in 14 months seem like a punishment! But the market is handling it well. And we got substantively good inflation data last week to go with it. Take a look and let us know your thoughts!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-threading-the-needle

Fattening the Bull

Mon, 12 Jun 2023 07:00:00 -0500

The big news last week was that the S&P has officially entered into “bull market” territory. That’s great news – and we’re never ones to look a gift horse in the mouth. But just how durable is this bull market? And what might throw it off track?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fattening-the-bull/

This Close

Mon, 05 Jun 2023 08:00:00 -0500

One down, one to go. Washington walked us right up to the edge of a default debacle, but, in an extraordinary showing of bipartisanship, passed a debt ceiling deal that avoided catastrophe (and ensured we don’t have to worry about it again until 2025).

So now we’re on to the next problem: is the Fed done raising rates? We take a look at what’s coming for the Fed meeting next week.

X-Date

Mon, 22 May 2023 08:00:00 -0500

The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/

Super Core

Mon, 15 May 2023 08:00:00 -0500

It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/

Cleared for Landing

Mon, 08 May 2023 09:00:00 -0500

It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic. But a funny thing happened after the meeting. Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real. And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-for-landing/

Debt Ceiling Danger

Mon, 01 May 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday). So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling. This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-debt-ceiling-danger/

True Hope vs. False Hope

Mon, 24 Apr 2023 08:00:00 -0500

We’re at an important inflection point for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The meeting coming up in just 9 days may be the most important of the whole cycle and the market is on edge about what the Fed will do next.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-true-hope-vs-false-hope/

Some vs. Several

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 08:00:00 -0500

Wrapping up something like one of the quickest rises in interest rate policy in history was never going to be easy. But last week we started to see some of the most visible cracks amongst FOMC members on the correct path moving forward. What does this mean for markets over the coming weeks and months?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-some-vs-several/

Ringing the Alarm on Social Security

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 08:00:00 -0500

It was a relatively quiet holiday week in the markets last week. We probably won’t be that lucky this week with the CPI data coming out on Wednesday. But we thought we’d take the break in the action to look at a much longer-term problem: Social Security. The trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund put out their annual analysis 10 days ago. It wasn’t pretty.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-ringing-the-alarm-on-social-security/

Stumbling Blocks – Student Debt

Mon, 03 Apr 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It was a good week in the markets last week as fears of a major bank contagion subsided and continuing positive data on inflation rolled in. This pause in the "drama" gives us a chance to look into future risks and this week we look at the economic impact of the end of payment forebearance on student loans. It has the potential to be a big one.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stumbling-blocks-student-debt/

So Close…and Yet So Far

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 07:00:00 -0500

Loose

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 10:00:00 -0500

Where's the Peak? Part 2

Mon, 13 Mar 2023 07:00:00 -0500

It’s easy to get swept up in the news. Last week was no different. Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress shook expectations for interest rates. But sometimes it is important to look back and see how trends are moving over the long-term, instead of getting wrapped up in the day-to-day.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak-part-2/

I'm Lovin' It

Mon, 06 Mar 2023 08:00:00 -0600

We all have had formative experiences in our youth. Maybe it was that first job, or successes in academics or athletics. For the team at Insight, one of most memorable (not always in a good way!) experiences was our time working at McDonald’s. Everyone should have to flip a burger when they’re young. It teaches you a lot. But what we didn’t imagine at the time was that the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger might be able to tell us something about the economy and the markets.

Click here for the full length memo: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-im-lovin-it/

Short Term Bias

Mon, 27 Feb 2023 07:00:00 -0600

There was a great deal of fretting in the market last week. Higher than expected PCE numbers, a renewed focus on Ukraine, and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on all indices. There is habit in the market of having a short-term bias – a focus on the latest news of the moment. But sometimes we need to peel back the onion and look deeper. In this week’s episode, we take a deeper look at the health of consumers and businesses – over the long-term – to see how they might be weathering the time we’re in. We hope you’ll listen in.

What Goes Up

Mon, 20 Feb 2023 07:00:00 -0600

Three years ago this week was the first time we wrote one of these memos. 156 weeks – and 156 memos – later, we will be the first to admit it is sometimes hard to produce a topic to talk about each week. What is important? What will you – our readers – find interesting? Over the last several years, the entire world has been consumed by creating “content”. The financial media is no different.

All Around The Margins

Mon, 13 Feb 2023 08:00:00 -0600

It has not exactly been a three-year period full of good news. It's understandable, then, when we have a good start to the year – as we have so far in 2023 – we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop. This week we want to dive into that “other shoe” and why, even if it does drop, we still think portfolios can have a strong recovery year. Let’s dive in.

Hearing What We Want To Hear

Mon, 06 Feb 2023 08:00:00 -0600

There have been many “post-Fed” commentaries in these pages over the last year, an indication of just how important interest rate policy has been to the market and the economy. We’ve digested and expounded on countless Powell-isms and tried to read the tea leaves of where the Fed is going. Listen in to hear more on this week's episode.

Read More:
https://insightwealthgroup.com/hearing-what-we-want-to-hear/

The Golden Cross

Mon, 30 Jan 2023 08:00:00 -0600

This has been a weird start to the year. Sentiment – at least as reported on the news – is decidedly negative. Market performance? Just the opposite. But the markets seem to be on path for a phenomenon which has historically indicated bullish sentiment. We walk through that trigger – and what may be standing in its way – in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight.

Tug of War

Mon, 23 Jan 2023 07:00:00 -0600

There’s a tug of war going on with market sentiment right now. The earnings season has kicked off and – at least last week – it wasn’t pretty. But the broader economic data we’re seeing – including last week’s PMI read – keep looking better and better. The result? A choppy week in the market as neither side is coming out the victor. What is going sway this battle for momentum in the market?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tug-of-war/

Bad Earnings, Good Market?

Mon, 16 Jan 2023 09:00:00 -0600

It's been a good start to the year in the markets. But a lot of “pundits” are warning of a drop in earnings or an earnings recession. That’s a scary term – but what does it mean for market performance?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bad-earnings-good-markets/

Starting With a Bang

Mon, 09 Jan 2023 08:00:00 -0600

Anyone thinking we would ease into 2023 was given a wake-up call last week. The long and drawn out battle for the House Speakership was the big news story – and while it didn’t impact markets directly, the concessions made to get Kevin McCarthy the Speaker’s gavel may have lingering effects. And then there was the jobs report – something that has caused drama many times in recent months.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-starting-with-a-bang/

Big Trends

Mon, 02 Jan 2023 08:00:00 -0600

It’s tempting to write the “Crystal Ball” piece this time of year. But we’re not fortune tellers at Insight. We can, however, pick out big trends and begin to understand how they might impact the market in the coming year.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-trends/

Jelly of the Month Club

Mon, 19 Dec 2022 07:00:00 -0600

Happy Holidays! In our last podcast before the holidays, we take a look at the recent pronouncements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and what they mean as we look into 2023. The market reacted a bit like Clark from Christmas Vacation getting a subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club. But should we have been surprised? Or did Chairman Powell do exactly what we should have expected by now?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-jelly-of-the-month-club/

What Changes Is Congress Making to Retirement Accounts?

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 08:00:00 -0600

It was a slow week in the markets as everyone waits for the “Powell-palooza” we’re going to get at the year-end Fed meeting this week. Economic data was positive throughout the week and showed inflation continuing to come down – if not at the pace some would like. Given the break in the action, we wanted to bring you up to speed on a piece of legislation that may work its way through Congress before year-end. The Secure Act 2.0 would create significant changes in retirement plans – both for employers and employees – and may change how you save for retirement.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-changes-is-congress-making-to-retirement-accounts/

Mixed Bag

Mon, 05 Dec 2022 07:00:00 -0600

Last week saw a number of wild swings in the market from a mixed bag of economic data and the last major comments from Chairman Powell prior to the next Fed meeting.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mixed-bag/

Tea Leaves

Mon, 28 Nov 2022 07:00:00 -0600

Last week, we discussed the four big “expectation moments” for the market for the rest of this year. With the release of the Fed minutes last Wednesday, we have one of those moments behind us.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tea-leaves/

Terminal Rate

Mon, 21 Nov 2022 08:00:00 -0600

Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you’re able to enjoy some quality time with your family this week. Just a quick reminder that the markets are closed on Thursday and close at 12:00PM CST on Friday. Our offices will keep the same hours.

Last week was a bit of a hangover from the (very good) CPI data. A very optimistic market got put back in its place a bit by the Fed, and the errant missile strike in Poland was enough to remind everyone just how serious the war in Ukraine is to world peace.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-terminal-rate/

Patience Is Key

Mon, 14 Nov 2022 07:00:00 -0600

Well that was a great week! We finally got the election behind us (except for those of you in Georgia…). And we got a tremendous report on inflation on Thursday. The result was a swell in optimism in the market. That is undoubtedly good news, but is it possible the market is getting out ahead of itself (and the Fed)?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-key/

The Dance Continues

Mon, 07 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0600

Fed Chairman Powell freaked everyone out again with his remarks after the Fed’s interest rate decision last week. But was it really as bad as some were saying? Or was it just more of the same as we continue to wait for better jobs data and lower CPI reads (coming Thursday)?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-dance-continues/

Goldilocks

Mon, 31 Oct 2022 08:00:00 -0500

Happy Halloween! We hope you’re celebrating in an appropriately spooky way. But we also hope that things don’t get too spooky in the markets this week – and that all depends on the Fed meeting Wednesday. We know (we think) they’re going to raise rates by 0.75%. But can their forward guidance give the market confidence to continue our current rally?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-goldilocks/

Gridlock Is Good

Mon, 24 Oct 2022 08:00:00 -0500

We’ve avoided it for as long as we can, but it’s time…we have to talk about the election. As they say, elections have consequences – and this one likely will for the market as well.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-gridlock-is-good/

Rollercoaster

Mon, 17 Oct 2022 07:00:00 -0500

Feeling nauseous yet? The month of October has been a rollercoaster ride for the markets. But the end result after all of the drama of the first half of the month? The market is flat.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-rollercoaster/

Good Jobs Bad/Bad Jobs Good?

Mon, 10 Oct 2022 08:00:00 -0500

A client bumped us after the jobs report and subsequent volatility on Friday with this question: “So, a good jobs report is bad, and a bad jobs report is good?”

That’s the upside down world in which we’re living. As we’ve been saying for months, the only thing that matters is the Fed and everything else is viewed through that lens.

Not So Great Britain

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 07:00:00 -0500

We’ve spent a lot of time in the Weekly Insight discussing the issues here at home with inflation and the markets. But the U.S. is just 24% of the world economy. In our evermore interconnected world, the other 76% is going to have a lot to say about the path of our economy. Last week, that was made clear when the government of new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to cut taxes in the midst of an inflation fight. World markets were thrown for a loop.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-not-so-great-britain/

Hold!

Mon, 26 Sep 2022 07:00:00 -0500

Last week was one of those times when it is simply not fun to be an investor. Stocks, bonds, domestic, international…everything was down. The FOMC meeting left investors convinced rates are going higher – for longer – than expected. And Chairman Powell threatened a “policy induced recession”. So what are investors to do?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-hold/

Where's the Peak?

Mon, 19 Sep 2022 08:00:00 -0500

That was a tough inflation report. And it just kicks up the drama for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. What will Chairman Powell do? And what does this mean for the future? And when will inflation finally peak?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak/

What's Our Vector, Victor?

Mon, 12 Sep 2022 08:00:00 -0500

The last few months have seen endless airplane analogies for the economy. “Soft landing”, “headwinds”, “turbulence”. But the truth is, our economy doesn’t have the simple choice of a good landing or a fiery crash. It’s always more complicated than that. This week, we look at what we’re hearing from the pilot (Chairman Powell) and how the market is reacting prior to the inflation data tomorrow.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-our-vector-victor

Opportunities in Housing

Tue, 06 Sep 2022 07:00:00 -0500

New housing start data last month showed America is going to build 10% less homes this year than last (thank you, inflation & rising interest rates!). But did you know that even last year we didn’t build enough homes to keep up with new household formations? The U.S. has a 3.8 million unit deficit in housing. Does that mean there may still be some investment opportunities in this space despite rising interest rates? Take a look and let us know what you think!

https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-opportunities-in-housing/

Pain?

Mon, 29 Aug 2022 08:00:00 -0500

We promised you last week the lazy days of summer were ending and a more dramatic period on the market was upon us. Chairman Powell fired the starter pistol with his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and, well, it’s safe to say the market didn’t love what it heard.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-pain

The Tax Man Cometh?

Mon, 22 Aug 2022 07:00:00 -0500

There’s a lot of speculation about the new army of 87,000 auditors authorized for the I.R.S. in the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act”. But how likely is it these roles will be filled? And how quickly?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-tax-man-cometh/

Good Inflation Data!

Mon, 15 Aug 2022 07:00:00 -0500

It finally happened…good inflation data! You’re well aware that we’ve been writing about and talking about this issue extensively over the last several months. Now that we have the data in our hands, it’s a good time to look at what it really means. Is this a flash in the pan before more bad data comes our way? Do we have reason to believe the easing of inflation will continue?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-good-inflation-data

Silly Season

Mon, 08 Aug 2022 07:00:00 -0500

The last few months have been a constantly repeating cycle of inflation, Fed Policy, and fears of a recession. Right or wrong, that drumbeat seems to have slowed as enter the end of the summer. The markets have come up nicely from the bottom, with the S&P up nearly 8% over the last month. That gives us some time to look down the field at the issues that may impact the markets between now and the end of the year.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-silly-season/

The Stress Test

Mon, 18 Jul 2022 07:00:00 -0500

9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/

Big Weeks Ahead

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 07:00:00 -0500

It was another solid week in the markets last week. The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break. But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer. There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-weeks-ahead/ ‎

Life, Liberty & the Pursuit of Happiness

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 08:00:00 -0500

Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend!

A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have about the world today.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-life-liberty-the-pursuit-of-happiness

New Rules: Energy

Mon, 27 Jun 2022 08:00:00 -0500

The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term. But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment? Probably not a good idea. We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/

Circular Sentiment Firing Squad

Mon, 20 Jun 2022 08:00:00 -0500

Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically demanding. Until folks woke up Thursday morning and immediately had buyer’s remorse.

We’ve entered a phase of this downturn that is completely decoupled from the economic trends. Instead, sentiment is begetting sentiment.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-circular-sentiment-firing-squad/

Choose Your Own Adventure: Inflation!

Mon, 13 Jun 2022 07:00:00 -0500

You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist. You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice. Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors. Were you looking for bad news? It was there. Optimism? There was a bit of that as well.

The market has clearly chosen the “bad news” path for the story since the report came out. But we’re quickly getting to the next critical juncture of the story. The FOMC is meeting and making a decision on the next interest rate hike this week.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-choose-your-own-adventure-inflation/

We Love Markets in Turmoil

Mon, 06 Jun 2022 07:00:00 -0500

We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer?

Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty solid data to back up the fact that we’re not going to find ourselves in a recession in the next few months. That may mean some good things for the next few months.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-we-love-markets-in-turmoil/

Looking Down The Field

Tue, 31 May 2022 07:00:00 -0500

Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo.

As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at what other risks exist out there.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-looking-down-the-field/

We’re Buyers. Here’s Why.

Mon, 23 May 2022 07:00:00 -0500

We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets.

But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is in much better shape than the pundits would have you believe. The risk of a recession is remarkably low. And, we believe, inflation is peaking (or may have already peaked).

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-were-buyers-heres-why/

The Inflation Crossroads

Mon, 16 May 2022 07:00:00 -0500

Last week was inflation week in the market. We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/

Whiplash

Mon, 09 May 2022 08:00:00 -0500

Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed. The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/

Fear

Mon, 02 May 2022 08:00:00 -0500

We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time.

It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s a lot harder to do. Why? Because fear, especially, and greed, to some degree, are biologically hardwired into our system.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear/

While You Wait

Mon, 25 Apr 2022 08:00:00 -0500

The Fed waiting game is upon us again. The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting on May 4th. Is he optimistic about the future? Does he see inflation peaking? The market is begging for that information. And until then we wait!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-while-you-wait/

Are We Bulls?

Mon, 18 Apr 2022 12:00:00 -0500

Inflation. Interest rates. COVID. Ukraine. Wash, rinse, repeat. The impact of these issues on the market and economy have been discussed and debated time and again by every pundit known to man. But what if the end of the world isn’t coming? What if there are some reasons to be optimistic in the face of all of this “dire news”?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-are-we-bulls/

The Truth About Retirement

Mon, 11 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0500

A bill passed the U.S. House last week – called the Secure Act 2.0 – which is designed to improve the system for retirement savings. On its face, it has a lot of good things in it: better catch-up contribution rules, delaying required minimum distributions until 75, etc. But the problem is, no one wants to have an honest conversation with American workers about their expectations for retirement.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-the-truth-about-retirement/

A Recession is Coming (Eventually)

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 10:00:00 -0500

Every week it seems there’s something new the “financial gurus” on TV are fretting about. Last week, it was the “inverted yield curve” and the near certainty it means a looming recession? But does it? Is a recession really coming?

Simply put, yes. A recession is coming. But that’s because a recession is ALWAYS coming! Over the last seventy years, we’ve had a recession, on average, every 6.4 years. They are a natural part of the economic cycle. But is the yield curve a good predictor? That depends. There are a LOT of yield curves. And which one you cherry pick can either be tremendously predictive or not at all.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-recession-is-coming-eventually/

Where’s the Drama?

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 10:00:00 -0500

Just two years ago last week, the market bottomed during the original “COVID Correction”. It seems like there has been constant drama since then. COVID surges, a contested Presidential election, inflation, interest rate debates, war, etc., etc. Which is why last week seemed so…strange.

Why? There wasn’t much drama! The market was up. The current dramas (inflation, Ukraine, interest rates, COVID) continued, but without any flare ups. It gave us a nice break to look at the future and see what the end of the quarter may bring.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-drama/

A Spoonful Of Sugar

Mon, 21 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0500

The Fed has finally spoken. It announced a 0.25% rate increase last week (expected). But they also released their “dot plot” for the next few years and it showed the potential for seven rate hikes this year. The market seemed to appreciate the Fed’s aggressive approach to inflation and rallied for the week. But what will that mean for the market long-term? We take a deeper dive into the Fed’s decision and it may mean for portfolios in this edition of the Weekly Insight.

Read more here: insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-spoonful-of-sugar

Powell v. Putin

Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:00:00 -0500

This week is the tale of two titans: Powell vs. Putin. The war in Ukraine – and especially its impact on the energy economy – is being felt around the world. Its impact on inflation is starting to be felt and may make things worse before they get better. How the U.S. – and specifically the Fed – responds this week is going to set the table for how markets do for the rest of the year. We know the FOMC is going to raise rates this week – but how many more rate hikes can we expect? And how much of an impact will shutting off Russian oil have on the economy?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-powell-v-putin/

Tale of Two Markets

Mon, 07 Mar 2022 09:00:00 -0600

Last week was a tale of wild swings in the market. Bad news on Ukraine? Markets down hard. Good news on the economy and interest rates? Markets up strongly. It truly was a tale of two markets. And, while the volatility continues today, there is reason to be optimistic about the economic situation here in the United States. Barring a true “Black Swan” event where NATO and Russia enter into direct conflict – something we still consider unlikely – there continue to be opportunities to succeed in this environment.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-tale-of-two-markets/

The Sanctions Game

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 00:00:00 -0600

Russia’s war against Ukraine is playing out on two stages: the cities of Ukraine and boardrooms of banks and companies across Russia and the West. As the West has decided not to engage Russia in direct military confrontation, the sanctions battlefield is increasingly important. But is it enough? And what else is on the table? And how will it impact the U.S. markets and economy? We take a deep dive this week to better understand the connection between our economy, sanctions, and the conflict in Ukraine.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-sanctions-game/

Mark Your Calendars

Mon, 21 Feb 2022 09:00:00 -0600

It was another volatile week in the markets. Why? Uncertainty. We’ve said it time and again that the market just can’t stand not knowing what’s going to happen.

The good news? There is a time limit on this uncertainty. We’re going to know soon what is going to happen in Ukraine. We’re going to know by March 16th what’s going to happen with interest rates. And right now the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on both issues.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mark-your-calendars/

Vlad’s Valentine

Sun, 13 Feb 2022 22:00:00 -0600

Happy Valentine’s Day! We hope you’re able to spend a little time with your loved ones today to celebrate (or, if this is your reminder, are able to run to the flower shop!).

Sadly, not everyone is feeling the love today. At the top of the list? Pretty much everyone in Ukraine. And the market took notice last Friday when Biden’s National Security Advisor stepped to the podium at the White House Press Room and essentially said “RUN!”. Between that and some rocky inflation data, last week was an interesting ride in the markets.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-vlads-valentine/

The Putin Papers

Sun, 06 Feb 2022 20:00:00 -0600

Families gathered around their TVs this weekend to watch the kickoff to the Winter Olympics – a once every two years opportunity to get behind our country in something we can all agree upon. It’s fun to cheer on Team USA! But it also comes at an interesting time in the world. The kickoff weekend saw Vladmir Putin and Chairman Xi stand side-by-side and reiterate their shared commitment to standing up to the west. It was a reminder of Olympics gone by during the Cold War.

It was also an important reminder that not everything that impacts the market is related to interest rates or COVID. World affairs haven’t mattered as much in the last few years, but historically they have had profound effects. As such, we thought it time to dive a little deeper into Putin’s thinking on Ukraine and the impact that may have on the world order.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-putin-papers/

Fed Psychosis

Mon, 31 Jan 2022 06:00:00 -0600

Last week was likely one of the “busiest” weeks in the market since the start of COVID. There was a lot of drama, most of it tied to the Fed meeting on Wednesday. We saw volatility unlike any we have seen in nearly two years. But the end result? Not much. Markets closed the week up and much of the panic over the Fed’s decisions proved to be unfounded.

Sandwich that inside a month filled with earnings reports (largely positive), rising (and now falling) COVID cases, and the potential for a war in the former Soviet Union, and January was a rollercoaster. In this week’s Weekly Insight we breakdown what that might mean for the market over the coming months.

Link to article referenced: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1s8CqV5wwK0yg7g_V36Sgai_EjhiXRyXS/view?usp=sharing

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-psychosis/

Here. We. Go.

Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:00:00 -0600

There is a great line from the Joker in the movie The Dark Knight (a must watch if you haven’t seen it – but we are about to spoil the ending…). To set the stage, he has two ferries (full of people) filled with explosives. Passengers in each ferry hold the trigger to the other ferry’s explosives. He is trying to prove the point that people will kill indiscriminately to save their own skins.

As the deadline approaches, he looks at Batman and says – rather dramatically – “And. Here. We. Go.”

The only problem? Neither ferry can bring themselves to kill the other. And nothing happens. His plan fails. The message? Despite all our problems, people are inherently good.

Last week was a bit of a “Here we go” week in the markets. We had some exceedingly popular stocks take a big tumble. The NASDAQ officially entered correction territory (down 10% from its high). Famous investor Jeremy Grantham declared the end of the bull market. Shares of growth favorite Peloton collapsed.

But while markets are not inherently good or bad, there are good and bad assets. And while there is a lot of drama happening in the markets, there are fundamentally sound aspects of it that are worth remembering when have periods of volatility like we are seeing today.

Read more here: insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-here-we-go/