First, rocket companies are going mobile. Rocket Lab’s $8B deal for Iridium turns a launch company into a global satellite telecom operator, with spectrum, subscribers, government contracts, and real recurring revenue. This could be a “defining moment for the space industry” but not necessarily in the way that Rocket Lab means it.

Next, OpenAI’s chip tape-out in just 9 months shows just how fast custom AI chips can be designed when you’re using AI. Jalapeño – OpenAI’s first custom chip, co-developed with Broadcom – could drive down hardware costs by 20-30%, although it still has to prove itself in production.

Finally, investors are gaining interest in back catalogs of books. Books are starting to look more like music and film/TV libraries, where proven IP can be re-marketed, re-packaged, and licensed into new formats. And AI is making it even easier to squeeze new value out of old content.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, US banks will soon have a lot more free capital, as regulators loosen capital requirements. This could unlock $88B-104B in additional excess capital, which might be deployed for M&A, business lending, AI spending, buybacks, and dividends.

Next, everyone is suddenly talking about KV cache – AI’s running memory and a major bottleneck for the industry. Players are coming at the KV cache problem from different directions, from model architecture to hardware to KV cache offloading/reuse.

Finally, the FDA’s more relaxed stance on low-risk “general wellness” products is spurring a wave of activity. Smart rings and screenless bands are continuing their momentum, and everybody wants to be a platform – not just a product.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, AI app development is getting a little magical. Agentic coding is readily available in Google’s Android Studio and Apple’s Xcode environments, and Google AI Studio can now turn prompts into native Android apps in minutes. This new phase of app development isn’t just faster – it’s actually producing better apps.

Next, AI podcast platforms keep multiplying, with Amazon and Spotify lately joining the party, following in NotebookLM (Google)’s footsteps. While it’s become easier to generate personalized briefings and explainers, it also means a lot more “podslop.”

Finally, scent-tech is bubbling, and smell might be one of the last two human senses to be replicated by AI. AI-powered e-noses have a wide array of use cases from custom fragrances to industrial hazard detection to medical diagnostics. 

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– Tam

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First, peptides are having a moment – fueled by influencer hype, GLP-1 success, and a friendlier stance from the Trump administration. While 100+ peptides are FDA-approved, many popular peptides used by fitness and wellness influencers are not. The Trump administration – with HHS Secretary RFK Jr as frontman – seems poised to change this landscape.

Next, the UAE’s sudden exit from OPEC could signal cracks in one of the world’s most influential cartels. While OPEC has been around since 1960, it may not be able to evade the market dynamics as US/UAE/non-OPEC+ production grows, and supply growth and competition from low-cost producers drive down prices.

Finally, the incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, has now been confirmed. He’s stepping in at an awkward moment – with sticky inflation, a divided FOMC, and White House pressure to cut rates. While Warsh has been talking a good game about independence, he also seems disposed to be looking for reasons to cut rates – which means he’ll find them.

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– Tam

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First, the DOJ just reclassified medical marijuana as a Schedule III drug. A hearing is also scheduled to address the full rescheduling of all marijuana to Schedule III. It doesn’t change everything for the industry – recreational marijuana remains illegal – but it could change a lot.

Next, Amazon Leo and Blue Origin are starting to look like real challengers to SpaceX/Starlink. Amazon’s $11.6B deal for Globalstar, and Blue Origin reusing its New Glenn rocket for the first time are just two of the signals this may be an inflection point for the industry.

Finally, CATL and BYD – the #1 and #2 EV battery players – have separately unveiled ultra-fast charging technologies that bring EVs closer to parity with gas cars. If it only takes 6.5 min to charge an EV to near-full, it could change how consumers feel about EVs.

One last personal note – Adam and I just welcomed baby Kit (our 4th!) and have been thinking about how to make 6Pages more sustainable in our lives. I’ve been doing this work for the past 10 years and it’s a lot of late nights and nonstop monitoring. Going forward, we’re choosing to be more intentional about taking time off throughout the year. That may occasionally mean a missed week of the 3 Shifts Edition – but don’t worry, if that happens, you can expect it to be back in your inbox [or favorite podcast app] probably the following week.

As always, thank you for being part of the 6Pages community. It means a lot.

Tam

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First, Anthropic’s new Mythos frontier model – rumored to be in the 10T-parameter class – may be cybersecurity teams’ best tool and worst nightmare. It’s being tightly controlled under Project Glasswing for now, but expect malicious actors to be wielding Mythos-level capabilities in maybe 6-24 months.

Next, advanced chip packaging might be AI’s next chokepoint. Seems like everyone is investing in expanding their packaging capacity – including TSMC, Intel, Samsung, traditional OSAT firms ASE and Amkor, memory-chip players SK Hynix and Micron, and even SpaceX.

Finally, there’s growing interest in trying to control the weather. The technology exists for basic weather control, and 50+ countries are already working on or experimenting with cloud seeding. China has the most ambitious program, with operations running year-round.

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Tam

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First, compressed 1-bit models like PrismML’s Bonsai are showing it’s possible to be competitive in performance while being 14x smaller, 8x faster, and 4-5x more energy-efficient. These models can run locally on edge devices (e.g. phones, laptops, wearables) for inference.

Next, data centers are facing a broad backlash that is driving policymakers – such as in Maine – to put a freeze on new data-center construction. Communities are starting to push back hard over rising electricity prices and water use.

Finally, Rivian just won a yearslong battle in Washington state to sell its cars directly to consumers. Given the effectiveness of its threat to take the question to voters through a ballot initiative, it’s not surprising that Rivian plans to take this strategy to other states.

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Tam

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First, Google’s TurboQuant algorithm is promising to “[reduce] LLM key-value cache memory by at least 6x and delivers up to 8x speedup, all with zero accuracy loss.” That’s a big deal when memory has been the bottleneck for scaling AI.

Next, there’s been a noticeable shift in opinion regarding social media’s use by minors and tech firms’ legal liability. Meta and YouTube lost two significant cases this past week, and if the logic sticks, it could mean a wave of lawsuits and massive financial penalties for social platforms. Some are calling this the “Big Tobacco” moment for social media.

Finally, messaging apps like iMessage, WhatsApp, Telegram, Discord, WeChat, and Slack are becoming natural control planes for AI agents. Claude Code Channels, the latest effort in this arena, is reportedly responsive, stays connected, and has persistent permissions – and is signaling an inflection point for this shift.

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Tam

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First, US retail leasing by services businesses has edged out goods-based tenants for the first time on record. The proliferation of gyms, medspas, salons, and experiential concepts isn’t just a change in real estate – it’s also a signal of a broader shift in the economy.

Next, Amazon is renewing its push for ultra-fast delivery (1-hour and 3-hour) in the US. After a few years of cost discipline, Amazon now seems ready to flex the logistics network it spent billions building – and maybe try to regain the footing it lost to Walmart.

Finally, momentum is building behind open payment protocols for AI agents. The promise of agents and their productive capacities needs standard mechanisms for them to transact at scale. It’s still early though and a bit chaotic, with multiple protocols and competing ecosystems.

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Tam

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First, in the AI chip race, inference is where the real volume game sits – and unfortunately Nvidia’s general-purpose GPUs aren’t ideal for inference. Deal-making around inference chips is happening now at a rapid-fire pace, as players aim to make inference faster and cheaper. 

Next, OpenAI and Anthropic are tying up with consulting giants – which may mean consulting is not dead after all. These partner programs are clearly about leverage in the race for enterprise AI, and bringing armies into companies to deploy AI models at production-scale.

Finally, both Nasdaq and NYSE want to tokenize stocks, and the regulatory landscape is ripe for an exemption sometime soon. However, almost everyone wants official on-chain versions of stocks, not just crypto-flavored knockoffs.

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Tam

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First, consumers hunting for yield are discovering stablecoin rewards. While returns on stablecoin can be significantly higher, the catch is that these aren’t FDIC-insured accounts, which means holders can be wiped out.

Next, Google is making sweeping changes to its app store as its long antitrust battle with Epic Games comes to a close. Developers have alternative billing options, the door is opening wider to 3rd-party app stores, and fees are generally coming down.

Finally, AI infrastructure is running into the “copper wall” – and fiber-optic interconnects may be the answer. Silicon-photonics startups are suddenly hot as AI players search for ways to move vastly more data using less power.

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Tam

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First, Claude Cowork is becoming a major gateway for non-developers looking to make things using AI. Its plugins – most recently, for HR, design, investment banking, equity research, and more – can effectively turn Claude into long-running specialized agents for an array of functions and roles.

Next, signals are indicating Apple’s growing commitment to shifting more manufacturing to the US. From Mac minis to chips, Apple is hedging for tariffs, geopolitics, and supply shocks – all the while still leaning heavily on China, India, and Vietnam.

Finally, Nvidia is returning to consumer PCs with hybrid CPU-GPU processors aimed at powerful thin-and-light PCs with long battery life – the laptop version of today’s smartphones. Nvidia isn’t looking for near-term profits but rather a foothold in inference and the new class of “AI PCs.”

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Tam

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First, India has emerged as one of the most attractive markets for AI. After this week’s AI Impact Summit and a parade of sizable commitments by US and Indian companies, India looks set to exceed its $200B+ target for AI infrastructure investment by 2028.

Next, licensing content for AI has begun to look more appealing since Anthropic’s $1.5B copyright settlement. Now, content marketplaces from the likes of Microsoft and Amazon are emerging to address this need.

Finally, Uber’s $100M bet on AV fast-charging stations is defying its slumping stock price. Uber’s take is that AVs will drive growth for the entire category, that AV supply will eventually fragment, and that its role in demand aggregation and maximizing asset utilization will continue to capture value.

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Tam

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First, the rising chatter about AI fatigue – what started as excitement over Claude Opus 4.5 and vibe-coding is settling into a more complicated reality. The productivity gains are real, but so are the coordination costs, cognitive load, and burnout.

Next, instead of waiting a decade for a new reactor, Alva Energy wants to boost the output of existing nuclear plants by 200-300 MW each. With AI data centers hungry for electricity, squeezing 10 GW out of the current fleet might be the most pragmatic near-term move on the board.

Finally, US lidar firms are consolidating while Chinese lidar makers sprint down the cost curve. With the price of Chinese-made lidar falling to $200, it begs the question of whether the writing is already on the wall with respect to China’s dominance in lidar. 

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Tam

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First, SpaceX’s merger with xAI is set to supercharge Elon Musk’s orbital data center dreams. With SpaceX’s recent application to the FCC for up to 1M satellites and Musk pressing for an accelerated Jun 2026 IPO, the dots are starting to connect.

Next, direct-to-patient drugs is becoming pharma’s new normal. The recent launch of TrumpRx has highlighted the ongoing shift over the past couple years towards direct-to-patient models by drugmakers, such as Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Amgen, and AstraZeneca.

Finally, AI is gunning for the legal sector – and SaaS is feeling it. The market panic might be premature but white-collar work is set for a major business-model change. It begs the question as to whether AI will turn services businesses into software-like freemium subscriptions.

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Tam

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First, open-source AI agent OpenClaw – otherwise known as “Claude with hands” – has become the latest viral sensation. It’s open-source, runs locally, controlled through chat, and has shell access, which means it can do just about anything – including bad things.

Next, AI seems to be making real progress in new formulations and materials. A broad array of examples have emerged in consumer and industrial products from new scents to new coatings – including, notably, battery chemistries, pharmaceuticals, and superconductors.

Finally, the race to build world models is on, with players like Google DeepMind, Nvidia, xAI, Meta, and myriad startups like Yann LeCun’s AMI Labs in the ring. Some of the smartest researchers believe world models may be the key to unlocking AI’s next frontier.

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Tam

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First, vibe-coding is hitting an inflection point – and it’s a major threat to software companies. What’s changing is how capable the tools have become and the pace of adoption by non-technical users.

Next, Chinese EVs are starting to take over, making headway in Europe, Latin America, and other markets. BYD, Geely, and others are offering EVs that are not just cheaper but feature-rich enough to punch above their price point.

Finally, data centers in space are looking like the future. Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Google, and others are getting serious about orbital data centers that could change the game around energy and other costs. SpaceX is in pole position, given that it has the lowest-cost rocket platform.

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Tam

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First, Apple has landed on Google’s Gemini for Siri – putting a capstone on a key decision that’s set to shape how consumers will use AI in their everyday lives. If you have an iPhone, you can finally let yourself wonder: “What if Siri was actually really good?”

Next, the current hot set of AI use cases seems to be oriented around healthcare. The past couple weeks have seen launches of OpenAI for Healthcare, Claude for Healthcare, and Google’s open medical model MedGemma 1.5, among others.

Finally, Walmart is expanding its drone delivery to a total of 270+ stores by 2027, covering 40M people. With a key regulatory change coming down the pipe this year, drone delivery is set to pick up steam. Players are aiming for an eventual cost of $1-2 per package at scale.

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Tam

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Our last edition before the holidays looked at the coming surge in IPOs, with a backlog that Barclays said going into 2026 was the “largest we've seen in over four years – and growing.” Now, just a little over a week into 2026, the IPO filings have begun.

Next, there’s a wave of stablecoin-based neobanks emerging from the momentum of the GENIUS Act. Some of them already hold or are pursuing banking licenses, while others are just front-ends sitting on top of chartered banks and stablecoins.

Finally, Google is selling its TPUs to third parties, with $21B in orders from Anthropic and possibly more from Meta. It has some industry analysts speculating that TPUs could capture 20% of the AI chip market within a few years.

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Tam

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First, President Trump just signed an executive order to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. The move will change the game for medical access, research, and cannabis-business tax deductions, although it stops well short of full legalization.

Next, IPOs are surging, with 2025’s $75B haul blowing past last year and 2026 looking stacked with mega-deals. SpaceX, Anthropic, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and possibly OpenAI are circling the runway, while many others are quietly making their preparations.

Finally, memory-chip makers can’t keep up with demand – and shortages are expected to last into 2026 and potentially beyond. Rising memory prices are driving up prices for electronics ranging from PCs to game consoles to smartphones.

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Tam

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First, Trump just signed an executive order that sets a course for a national AI policy framework (vs. the growing patchwork of state AI laws). Until federal laws are passed that preempt state laws, however, state-level fragmentation will be discouraged using DOJ litigation and federal funding.

Next, Australia is now the first country to enforce a nationwide ban on social-media accounts for children under 16. With legislation brewing in multiple countries and US states, this could signal a sea-change in the use of social media by minors.

Finally, geothermal energy is quietly having a moment. Geothermal is promising faster, cheaper builds – with the potential to power data centers, displace natural gas, and provide baseload energy 24/7. Eventually, geothermal could be “far cheaper than natural gas.”

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Tam

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First, China’s AI progress is being deployed in manufacturing systems, with some dramatic cost reductions being reported. Chinese open models’ share of downloads has overtaken US open models, and industry watchers are calling China’s models “palpably close to the frontier.”

Next, Netflix’s $83B deal to buy WBD’s libraries, studios, and HBO Max is shaking up the entertainment industry. It’s a big swing – if it can clear regulators. For Netflix, it could juice its core subscription and ad businesses, and open up doors to new revenue streams.

Finally, the US energy-storage build-out has quietly blown past its 8-year goal for 2025 – and it’s still going. The US now has 40+ GW of battery storage online, most of it landing in solar-heavy states like Texas, California, and Arizona.

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Tam

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First, Gemini 3 marks a real turning point for Google, which is clearly the AI player to beat right now. The new flagship model is strongly topping leaderboards for Text, Vision, and WebDev, rolling out on Day 1 in the Gemini app and Search (at least for subscribers).

Next, AI is going industrial – and Jeff Bezos is back in a CEO seat. Project Prometheus aims to bring AI to engineering and manufacturing in industries such as computers, airplanes, and cars. AI is reaching a new phase where the technology has become capable and reliable enough for complex physical tasks at scale.

Finally, multi-agent systems are getting organization-wide control planes. A wave of agent management tools are reflecting a growing need to treat AI agents like workers and teams, with access controls, dashboards, and metrics. Agent-to-agent collaboration opens the door, however, to risks like prompt-injection attacks.

As an FYI, we’ll be taking next week off to enjoy time with our loved ones for Thanksgiving, and we hope you’re able to do the same. Our thanks to you for being a 6Pages reader – we don’t take our community for granted. Enjoy, and see you in December.

Tam

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First, Visa and Mastercard have proposed a sweeping settlement that could upend credit-card rewards as we know them. The $38B deal would let merchants refuse premium rewards cards and allow them to tack on card-specific surcharges.

Next, OpenAI dropped a faster and more conversational GPT-5.1, with adaptive reasoning that can assess the complexity of a query and allocate an appropriate amount of processing time to generating a response. The feedback seems to be markedly positive among developers.

Finally, Teradar emerged from stealth with a $150M Series B and a solid-state terahertz sensor that combines the best of lidar and radar – at a price point of a few hundred dollars. The startup hopes to integrate the sensor into production cars by 2028.

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Tam

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First, prediction markets are heating up fast, with trading volumes now topping $2B weekly and a dizzying web of brokerages, exchanges, and crypto and sports-betting players jumping in. Kalshi and Polymarket are leading in a race that’s set to reshape more than one market.

Next, big brokerages are pulling open the door to private assets. Schwab is acquiring Forge Global, and Morgan Stanley is buying EquityZen – two of the leading marketplaces for pre-IPO shares. Democratizing access can’t really happen though, until policymakers redefine “accredited investor.”

Finally, Trump struck a deal with drugmakers to cut the price of GLP-1 drugs, in exchange for broader coverage, faster FDA review, and a tariff reprieve. Perhaps most impactful in the long run – the most-favored nation pricing will apply to all future drug launches.

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Tam

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First, there’s been a steady stream of white-collar layoff announcements from companies like Amazon, Meta, YouTube, Goldman Sachs, and Target. If we dig down, however, into why these companies are laying off white-collar workers, the rationales are nuanced.

Next, OpenAI has officially completed its for-profit conversion. One of the most notable ramifications of the conversion is that it will allow OpenAI to go public, in an IPO that some believe could value the company at up to $1T.

Finally, stablecoin payments are heading for prime time. Incumbents like Zelle and Western Union are jumping in to offer cross-border stablecoin payments before they get bypassed. Cross-border payments are shaping up to be one of the primary use cases for stablecoin.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, AI web browsers are officially a thing. This week saw the long-awaited debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT Atlas browser, followed quickly by Microsoft’s “Copilot Mode” in Edge. That’s on top of recent launches from Google, Anthropic, Perplexity, Opera, and others. The browser is fast becoming the new battleground for data, distribution, and user trust.

Next, Amazon is aiming to automate 75% of its warehouse operations, and plans to roll out the template of its Shreveport robotic facility to 40 more warehouses by 2027. The Shreveport facility already has 1,000+ robots and 25% fewer workers – and falling to 50% fewer workers by next year.

Finally, China just unveiled the outline of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030. The plan centers on technological self-reliance, advanced manufacturing, and boosting domestic consumption – all while keeping an eye on national security and its social issues (e.g. youth unemployment).

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– Tam

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First, retail trading has hit an inflection point – and this time it’s not just meme stocks. For the first time, a majority (54%) of working-class Americans earning $30K-$80K hold taxable investment accounts – with more than half of those entering the market within the past 5 years.

Next, OpenAI is stacking up chip deals – signing big agreements with Oracle, Nvidia, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, and Broadcom, and this wave isn’t even done. Sam Altman is getting chipmakers to fund his chips, and could be gearing up to take on Nvidia.

Finally, menopause care is getting some long-overdue attention – with Hims & Hers joining a wave of startups in offering DTC menopause care. Telehealth platforms, personalized hormone therapy, and menopause benefits (now offered at 25% of large US employers) are making it easier for women to get care.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Apple is letting developers use its local AI model for free, and the app updates are rolling in fast. The model may be just 3B parameters but it runs locally, preserves privacy, and, most importantly, costs nothing, which is hard to beat.

Next, Stripe just launched a new stablecoin issuance platform, letting any business spin up its own USD-backed coin with just a few lines of code. The move into stablecoin is about “speed, coverage, and cost improvements,” particularly for cross-border transfers and FX.

Finally, OpenAI just dropped a viral video-generation social app powered by Sora 2, and it’s already hit #1 on the App Store. With its video realism and ChatGPT-style virality, this seems like another step in OpenAI’s journey to become the next consumer big tech firm.

One last note – the 6Pages team is going on hiatus next week as we travel, but we’ll be back the following week. Our thanks, as always, to you for continuing to be a reader and a part of the 6Pages community.

best,
Tam

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First, Trump’s $100K H-1B visa has companies and workers scrambling. While the $100K fee won’t apply to renewals or existing H-1B holders, the administration is signaling that H-1Bs will be fewer, more expensive, and skewed toward higher-paid roles.

Next, the US deal for TikTok looks like it’s actually happening. Under Trump’s executive order, TikTok US will spin off into a JV with majority-US ownership and board. Oracle will play a major role in hosting the data and overseeing the retraining of TikTok’s recommendation algorithm.

Finally, Amazon will deliver orders placed on Shopify, Walmart, and Shein through its Multi-Channel Fulfillment program. Sellers pooling their inventory across Amazon and non-Amazon sales channels are seeing a 19% increase in sales, 19% reduction in out-of-stocks, and 12% improvement in inventory turnover on average.

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Tam

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First, Google’s Gemini elbowed past ChatGPT to become the #1 app in Apple’s App Store globally, boosted by the viral breakout of the Nano Banana image-editing model. Google is lately intent on expanding Gemini’s distribution, with integrations into Chrome, likely Siri, and more.

Next, the first pill-based GLP-1 treatments for weight loss could be on the market by next year, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the way. These pill versions could open up the market by being more convenient, cheaper to manufacture, and easier to ship worldwide.

Finally, it may soon be as easy to buy an ad on premium TV as it is to set up an Instagram campaign. Media giants and consumer hardware firms are investing in self-service platforms and AI tools to democratize access to TV ads – including premium TV.

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Tam

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First, Robinhood is aiming to be a financial superapp with the launch of Robinhood Social. The social network’s idea generation and signal-to-noise ratio will rely on Robinhood’s ability to verify profile identities through KYC and validate traders’ real performance

Next, a coalition of publishers, social platforms, and CDNs is backing the open RSL Standard for AI-era content licensing. The protocol uses the robots.txt file to define machine-readable terms for licensing, usage, and compensation for AI crawlers and agents.

Finally, SpaceX just signed a $17B deal to acquire the "golden band" for direct-to-cell satellite service from EchoStar. Once Starlink’s next-gen D2C satellites are ready and handset chipsets updated, Starlink will be able to provide 5G connectivity anywhere in the world.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, remedies in the Google search antitrust case have dropped – and Google has come out relatively unscathed. While Google is barred from exclusive distribution agreements and tying its products, it will not have to divest Chrome or Android.

Next, businesses are shifting focus away from SEO and towards GEO (generative-engine optimization). AI referrals are surging and companies are racing to optimize for the post-search era. Read this one if you’re wondering how to get your business noticed by AI chatbots.

Finally, Uber and Lyft struck a deal with California to let drivers unionize in exchange for lower insurance costs. The reduced insurance requirements is a big deal for them – and their users – since insurance is by far their largest expense line.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, the Fed signaled a policy shift last week, with Powell framing a recalibration of the Fed’s inflation strategy away from prolonged overshoots over 2%, while hinting at a rate cut. Powell is giving with one hand but providing the Fed with cover to take it back if needed.

Next, recent reports are indicating a bifurcation among entry-level jobs – with both winners and losers. The difference appears to come down to whether AI is automating human work or helping humans do their work.

Finally, AI players like Perplexity and OpenAI are circling the browser as Google’s search-related antitrust remedies loom. The browser offers a powerful window into user intent – and the clearest path for AI agents to gain context, execute workflows, and become the digital front door to everything.

– Tam

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First, Google’s new Gemini-powered hardware is tempting iPhone users to cross over. Gemini for Home is a major smart-home upgrade, and the Pixel 10’s “Magic Cue” proactive surfacing of relevant information is painting a picture of what ambient, pervasive AI will look like. 

Next, hackers are rebuilding the business operations of cybercrime around AI. AI tools purchased on the dark web are letting hackers spin up “nearly perfect replicas of legitimate sites in just minutes.” It’s an AI-fueled arms race where the attackers have a head start.

Finally, Chinese-founded AI agent startup Manus has reached a $90M revenue run-rate, after early traction. Manus – known for its autonomous multi-step task planning and execution – can deploy armies of 100+ agents in parallel to achieve complex objectives.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Amazon is expanding same-day fresh grocery delivery to 1,000+ cities, with plans to more than double that by end of 2025. With Prime members now able to get groceries delivered within hours for free, Walmart and other rivals’ stock prices have tumbled in the wake.

Next, Trump signed a new executive order aiming to reduce regulatory barriers for the commercial space industry. This will mean streamlining license and permit approvals for US operators – which could pull forward mission schedules for commercial launches.

Finally, AI connectors are promising to become a security headache. While tools like OpenAI’s connectors can make agents more useful by pulling in your Gmail, Google Drive, and Google Calendar, this highly sensitive data increases the potential attack surface for hackers.

One final note – beware hallucinations from GPT-5! Our team tested the new model out while writing this Edition and were more than a bit shocked at how convincing the hallucinations were, e.g. multiple specific data points drawn from nowhere but written with a lot of context. Luckily, we did our usual fine-toothed editing but it would be very easy to get sloppy.

Enjoy, and feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Tam

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First, OpenAI dropped GPT-5 this week, along with its first open-weight models in a long while. While GPT-5 might be the best all-around model (or hybrid “unified” system) today, the open gpt-oss family – which can be downloaded for free, customized, and run on a laptop or phone at low cost – might be even more exciting.

Next, ElevenLabs revealed Eleven Music, a text-to-music generator that can produce studio-quality tracks that will be cleared for commercial use. It has deals with Merlin and Kobalt to train on licensed tracks on an opt-in basis, and share revenue with rights holders.

Finally, Google’s DeepMind announced Genie 3 – an AI “world model” that can generate 3D environments in real time as users interact within the world. Users can even change parameters like weather conditions, and introduce new objects/characters.

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Tam

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First, enterprises now prefer Anthropic’s Claude over OpenAI, according to Menlo Ventures.  Anthropic is the new leader in enterprise AI with 32% of the market (in compute), while OpenAI’s share has fallen from 50% to 25% in just over a year and a half.

Next, the EPA has formally begun its repeal of the 2009 “endangerment finding” – the legal basis for regulating greenhouse-gas emissions in the US. The EPA’s proposal would also rescind all GHG emission standards for new motor vehicles and engines in the US.

Finally, autonomous trucking looks like it might finally be arriving soon. Aurora Innovation now has 3 autonomous Class 8 heavy trucks in commercial operation, hauling grocery at night along the 200+-mile stretch between Dallas and Houston.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, smart jewelry is suddenly one of the hottest fronts in the AI device race. Amazon just acquired Bee’s always-listening bracelet, Meta is working on gesture-control wristbands, Samsung is exploring more smart jewelry, and OpenAI’s hardware team (led by Jony Ive) is working on a new form factor altogether.

Next, Uber and Lyft are adding new ways for riders to customize their ride, from opting for female drivers to favoriting and blocking drivers. The features signal a broader shift toward personalized ride-hailing. Given the rapid rollout of robotaxis and in-car AI, ride-hailing platforms are racing to make themselves indispensable before they’re disintermediated.

Finally, lab-grown pork fat just got full approval in the US, marking the first new green light for cultured meat since 2023. Mission Barns’ pork fat will hit Sprouts grocery stores in Q3 2025 – starting in italian meatballs and applewood-smoked bacon. It’s a big step for alt-meat, even while Upside Foods and GOOD Meat struggle to scale production and 7 states have banned it.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, AI is taking aim at financial analysts. Anthropic’s Claude for Financial Services can analyze market data, build DCF models, and generate investor decks – complete with on-brand deliverables – while OpenAI’s “ChatGPT agent” can conduct research and build spreadsheets and decks while you’re out to lunch. Junior roles may be the first to feel the squeeze.

Next, the GENIUS Act was just signed into law, becoming the first federal regulatory framework for USD-pegged stablecoins. The bill clears the way for banks, fintechs, and even retailers like Walmart and Amazon to explore their own stablecoins. 

Finally, China’s flex of its rare-earth dominance is causing shortages and spurring investment in the US supply chain. MP Materials – with backing from the Pentagon and Apple – is expanding its processing and magnet production, while Ramaco just opened the first new rare-earths mine in the US in 70+ years.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First up, US courts are beginning to clear the fog around AI training as fair use. Two major rulings say AI training is transformative, settling a major question. However, they still leave the doors open for lawsuits over pirated data, regurgitation, and market harm.

Next, robots are expanding their footprint in warehouses, with shippers and retailers rolling out systems that can even load and unload trailers – the “holy grail” of warehouse automation. Amazon now has 1M+ robots, and will soon have more robots than humans in its warehouses.

Finally, the US is making a big push on nuclear energy. Spurred by 4 new executive orders aiming to streamline approvals and triple nuclear capacity by 2050, state governments and tech firms are making notable moves to invest in nuclear.

One last note – while we’re not going to take credit for the market run-up, we’ve been mildly surprised at how some of the shifts in past briefs have come to fruition. Hope you were able to get into Uber (up 46% since “Uber steers toward autonomous driving”), Oracle (up 50% since we mentioned its deal with OpenAI in “GPT-5's troubles and what's next for AI data”), or Rocket Lab (up 582% since we called it one of the private-sector space players left standing in “SpaceX’s new Bandwagon rideshare program”).

best,
Tam

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First, the US labor market is shrinking in ways that feel more structural than cyclical, with a declining employment-population ratio and businesses seeking “headcount-less growth.” So far it’s mostly “small cracks” but between immigration policy and automation, we’re looking at a labor market in transition – and the landing may not be soft.

Next, Meta just bet $14.3B on data-labeling startup Scale AI and its CEO Alexandr Wang, securing a 49% stake. With 240K+ taskers and 100K+ domain experts churning out training data, Scale AI has become the go-to vendor for many leading AI players – and now, potentially, Meta’s competitive advantage.

Finally, deep-sea desalination is getting real – and may be the most energy-efficient way to turn the ocean into drinking water. By using natural deep-sea pressure to drive reverse osmosis, startups are aiming for automated “water farms” that use less energy, require less shoreline, and disperse brine with less environmental damage.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, Mary Meeker is back with another 300+ slide deck, her first Trends report since 2019 – this one focused on AI. We highlight what we consider to be the most interesting themes – and we did it by actually reading the deck and writing the brief (vs. running it through AI).

Next, AI players are racing to ink distribution deals, with social platforms and smartphone makers hoping to play kingmaker. Elon Musk’s xAI will reportedly pay out $300M to Telegram for a Grok integration, while Perplexity is partnering up with Samsung, Motorola, and maybe Apple.

Finally, companies like Morgan Stanley are using AI code assistants to rewrite legacy codebases written in Cobol, Fortran, and Perl. With 800B+ lines of legacy code still out there, this could be key to unlocking modernization – without breaking our financial systems.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, California’s longtime leadership on climate regulation may be coming to an end. Congress just voted to revoke California’s emissions waivers, in a move set to nullify the state’s authority to enforce stricter-than-federal vehicle standards – a power it’s held since 1967.

Next, Texas passed a new law requiring app stores to verify user ages, which means Apple and Google are likely to carry the costs – and liability – of age verification. App stores are becoming the key choke points for policymakers seeking to regulate kids’ access.

Finally, vibe coding is all the rage right now in the world of AI. The term references how developers can describe what they want the software to do – i.e. the “vibe” or intent – while letting AI handle the technical implementation details. It’s spawning a new generation of lightweight throwaway apps, developed by “citizen developers” using no-code approaches.

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Tam

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First, AI slop is spreading like kudzu and it’s more than just annoying spam – it’s a threat to online ecosystems as we know them. From YouTube channels to Pinterest recipes to Spotify playlists, slop farmers are exploiting AI’s ability to generate content cheaply and en masse.

Next, patient-specific CRISPR gene-editing is here. In a medical first, doctors used base-editing CRISPR to treat a baby with a rare and usually fatal disorder. The customized therapy received accelerated regulatory approval and was delivered within 6 months – a template that could be used for other individualized treatments for rare-disease patients.

Finally, Xiaomi just revealed a 3nm mobile chip near the cutting edge of chip development, signaling how China’s chip industry continues to press forward despite US sanctions. While the chip is likely being made by TSMC, it was designed in-house by Xiaomi.

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 Tam

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First, we delve into the rise of APIs for AI web search, with Anthropic recently joining Google, Perplexity, OpenAI, and others in releasing a product. It’s looking like AI search will soon be broadly distributed across 3rd-party applications and websites.

Next, crypto’s regulatory barriers are coming down, with the OCC, Fed, and FDIC rescinding restrictions and pulling back on enforcement efforts. Banks can engage in crypto activity more freely and without advance notice – including providing banking services to crypto businesses.

Finally, Airbnb is now fully in the services business, launching a vetted marketplace of private chefs, personal trainers, beauty treatments, and more. Unlike its prior attempt, this feels like a serious strategic expansion and an effort to position itself vis-à-vis the ongoing AI wave.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, a federal judge laid down the hammer on Apple last week for “willful violation” of her 2021 injunction. Developers like Spotify, Amazon, and Patreon are now moving quickly to cut Apple out of transactions, now that Apple can’t charge commissions on off-app purchases.

Next, Visa and Mastercard are opening up their networks to AI agents, with new tools for secure, tokenized payments by AI agents on behalf of users as well as “personalization signals” based on spend data. The card giants hope to stay relevant in a future of agentic commerce.

Finally, multi-agent AI systems are officially in the wild, with Accenture running 50+ of them (and targeting 100+ by year-end). Meanwhile, Google’s Agent2Agent open protocol for agent-to-agent interoperability and coordination is gaining traction. 

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Waymo is pulling away in the robotaxi race with now 250K+ paid robotaxi rides per week, amid a flurry of industry activity and Tesla in hot pursuit. If Waymo is not just better and safer but also getting better and safer faster, its leadership may already be sealed.

Next, OpenAI is rolling out shopping in ChatGPT, as it inches closer to advertising. Its search results are “organic” for now but OpenAI has avenues for making money from this that are not sponsored ads. Its moves are a threat to Google, Amazon, and media companies’ affiliate-marketing sites.

Finally, researchers are learning that AI models “think” like bags of heuristics. Mechanistic interpretability researchers, led by Anthropic, are racing to make AI models more understandable – before models take on higher-stakes responsibilities as autonomous agents.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, the US government is restarting student loan collections, with garnishment of wages, social-security benefits, and tax refunds all back on the table starting May 5. Borrowers avoiding their loan balances might want to check their mail – and maybe their blood pressure too.

Next, protein is taking over everything we eat, from popcorn to ice cream to your morning coffee. With weight-loss drugs booming and muscle-mass preservation suddenly a national hobby, the $24B protein-snack market is exploding.

Finally, there’s a brewing problem with AI benchmarks. Popular benchmarks are becoming saturated, AI players are overfitting models, and models that do well on benchmarks aren’t doing well in the real world. On the other hand, it seems we’re in the “thousand flowers blooming” era of AI benchmarks.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, OpenAI is on its way to becoming the next consumer big tech giant, with ChatGPT surging to 800M+ weekly users. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are chasing power users with $200/month tiers but the real story might be what’s happening on the free end of freemium.

Next, manufacturing in certain sectors may be coming back to the US, although numbers are inflated and not every sector will come back easily. Still, some of these investments reflect a new world order where importing to the US has suddenly become much more expensive.

Finally, factory-direct shopping is having a moment, as shoppers flood to Chinese app DHgate to buy directly from Chinese factories, amid tariffs and the de minimis closure. It’s a messy story – full of Hermès-quality products that could be dupes or counterfeits, and viral videos that might be a coordinated China-backed campaign.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Trump’s tariff rollercoaster is giving the markets whiplash, with a surprise 90-day pause on most “reciprocal” tariffs alongside a major hike on China. The S&P 500 bounced, the dollar sank, and 10-year Treasury yields surged, leaving some wondering if bond traders (or China) are casting votes of no confidence.

Next, the de minimis loophole is seeing its endgame, leaving low-cost ecommerce players like Shein and Temu scrambling. With duties of 120% or $100-200 per shipment coming soon, that $3 phone case is going to get a lot pricier. The effects will ripple through to US sellers and US consumers.

Finally, Google’s new Workspace Flows will let users automate multi-step workflows across its productivity suite. What makes it interesting is how deeply integrated it is with Google’s widely used tools (e.g. Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Chat, Docs, Sheets, Slides, Forms, Meet, NotebookLM) – and the utter mundanity of the tasks it might handle out of the box.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Trump’s blanket tariffs are crashing the economy, with nearly all major US trading partners hit with new levies. Some, like the EU, China, and Vietnam, are facing eye-popping 20-65%+ rates. The 25% auto tariffs are now live too, sending car prices higher.

Next, Amazon is going full Hollywood, announcing plans at CinemaCon to release 15 big-screen films per year. Amazon sees theatrical as both a prestige play to lure in creatives as well as advance marketing for later streaming releases (with their adjacent downstream revenue).

Finally, Instacart is quietly turning its shoppers into a crowdsourced data army, tasking them with capturing video of store shelves and inventory. Highly accurate and timely inventory data opens up an array of new opportunities for Instacart, its customers, and retailer partners.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, OpenAI’s new image-generation feature is shockingly useful. It will actually follow the user’s direction as you iterate on a piece of work – instead of having to continually spin the roulette wheel and hope it spits out something useful.

Next, Europe is finally serious on defense – with Germany, France, and the broader EU rolling out big spending packages in response to Trump’s reorientation and Russia’s looming shadow. The reshaping of the US-EU relationship is having unforeseen consequences, such as EU nations looking to expand their nuclear arsenals.

Finally, China is putting billions into reusable rockets, with the aim of building a SpaceX-style commercial space industry. With an array of startups and state-backed giants pushing on reusable vehicles and megaconstellations, it looks like China will be making low-earth orbit a much more crowded place. 

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, Amazon is making big moves on multiple fronts, from its own reasoning model to slashing prices on chips to a supercharged Alexa to challenges to Google’s cross-site ad-buying platform. After a stretch of cost-cutting, Amazon is planning a $100B capex budget for 2025 that will outpace all of its rivals. Is this a comeback arc?

Next, the EPA’s regulation rollback has officially kicked off, with 31 actions starting to unwind rules on power plants, oil and gas, vehicles, pollutants standards, GHG reporting, and the key “endangerment finding,” among others. It all still needs to go through the formal rulemaking process, but the Trump administration is firing the starting pistol early.

Finally, Chinese EV maker BYD is turning heads with its new ultra-fast charging tech, claiming 400 km of range in just 5 minutes – about the time it takes to fill up a tank. With its vertical integration, global expansion, and R&D push, BYD is no longer Tesla’s low-cost shadow – it’s growing rapidly and building the future at warp speed.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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First, 2025 is finally showing nascent signs of a more full-throttled comeback for M&A, after years of sluggish activity. With examples like Rocket snapping up Redfin and Unilever shedding €1B in brands, dealmaking seems to be warming up. A looser antitrust stance under the Trump administration and AI-driven acquisitions are fueling the momentum.

Next, AI is taking over ad-buying, automating everything from audience targeting to ad placement. Meta, Google, TikTok, and others have rolled out end-to-end AI tools, and marketers are trading less control for higher returns. The future of digital ad-buying seems to be – push a button, let AI do its thing, and hope it doesn’t blow your budget before noon.

Finally, Trump wants to bring back US shipbuilding, with a new White House office and tax incentives to jumpstart production. The draft plan includes docking fees for Chinese-built ships and operators of fleets with a high proportion of Chinese-built ships. Whether this sparks a shipbuilding renaissance or just raises import costs remains to be seen.

Enjoy.

Tam

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First, Trump’s 25% tariffs on North American allies have taken effect – at least for the 62% of the imports from Canada and 50% of the imports from Mexico that remain exposed after the recent amendments. Canada has fired back with tariffs on $30B CAD worth of US goods, and Mexico is expected to announce its own countermeasures on Sunday.

Next, federal consulting firms are facing a crisis, with the Trump administration’s cost-cutting spree targeting billions in contracts. Big names like Deloitte, Accenture, and Booz Allen are seeing projects axed, and consultants on the bench are wondering if they’ll see a pink slip next.

Finally, Google is cracking down on search manipulation, including low-quality content and SEO gaming. Media companies that leaned into coupon links and product reviews are watching their traffic plummet, as Google doubles down on "real" content.

Enjoy the read – and if you’re in Canada, we still love Canadians over here.

– Tam

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First, TikTok Shop is seeing significant growth in the US – with 153% year-over-year growth, far outpacing rivals like Shein and Temu. Despite uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US, the platform’s shoppable videos, live-selling, and branded stores are making their mark on social commerce.

Next, AI is accelerating progress in humanoid robots – making them more versatile, capable, and trainable via imitation learning. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, and OpenAI are all making moves, signaling that we could be approaching the ChatGPT moment for physical AI.

Finally, startups are building decentralized networks of GPUs to tap into underutilized compute. Companies like Exo Labs and Berkeley Compute are developing infrastructure that could help lower AI costs, particularly for inference.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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Our first Shift explores Elon Musk’s xAI and the progress of its Grok models. Grok 3, which was just introduced, is currently placed #1 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard – outperforming most of the other players (although not OpenAI’s o3, which has not been released).

Next, CPU chip designer Arm is going to make its own chips. The move is rocking the industry, and represents a major shift in Arm’s business model of being Switzerland and licensing its designs to other companies. Rumor has it the move is being driven by SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son.

Finally, the US may see a DeepSeek-like disruption from China in biotech. 31% of the molecules licensed by big pharma are now coming from China – up from 0 in 2019. Chinese-developed drugs today are often high-efficacy “me too better” versions, as China moves up the innovation ladder.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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Our first Shift delves into the growing sentiment against “forever chemicals” – known as PFAS – among policymakers and consumers. Recent months have seen state-level bans of  products with PFAS as well as a wave of new PFAS-related consumer lawsuits.

Next, tech-sector unemployment recently jumped up to 5.7% in Jan 2025, according to a WSJ report. The layoffs are being attributed to factors such as AI, high interest rates constraining growth, past overhiring and current above-market compensation, continued pushback against remote work, and R&D tax-deduction changes.

Finally, OpenAI’s Deep Research is getting rave reviews and it isn’t the only “deep research” tool out there. There’s also Google’s Deep Research, Perplexity’s Deep Research, Hugging Face’s Open Deep Research, and other open alternatives from individuals. It indicates a growing recognition of the vast usefulness of an AI-powered research agent.

If you haven’t already, check out the final report in our series collaboration with TDK Ventures: “The Opinionated CVC: A perspective on strategy, process and people.” And as always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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In our first Shift: The long-promised tariffs have become real – at least for China. (The tariffs on Canada and Mexico were paused for 30 days.) Notably, the executive order clarifies that all items from China are no longer allowed to use the duty-free de minimis exemption (ahem, Temu and Shein).

Next, we take a look at the end of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as we know it. After the firing of Rohit Chopra, CFPB staffers were ordered to halt most of their work on rulemaking, enforcement actions, litigation, and communications.

Finally, everyone is talking about distillation and its impact on AI economics. A distilled model (e.g. DeepSeek) can be “up to 500% faster and 75% less expensive to run,” while losing less than 2% accuracy. Just this past week, a US-based team distilled a model that outperforms o1-preview for just $21 and in 26 minutes, using a dataset of just 1,000 questions.

One final note – check out the final report in our series collaboration with TDK Ventures: “The Opinionated CVC: A perspective on strategy, process and people.” It presents a slightly more “opinionated” perspective on how a CVC should be organized.

As always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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It’s been a tumultuous week in the markets but if you’re looking for DeepSeek, we wrote about it in our 3 Shifts Edition on Jan 17: “China’s notable progress in AI models.” (We also covered it in our Jan 10 edition the week prior.)

Looking ahead now, our first Shift delves into the Fed’s pause on rate cuts. While not a surprise, it is the first time the Fed has hit pause since the current rate-cutting cycle began in Sep 2024. Powell is signaling he doesn’t intend to do a quick reversion back to cuts.

Next, we take a look at the private-sector pullback on DEI in the wake of Trump’s executive order. In a recent survey, 1 in 8 companies reported plans to reduce or eliminate their DEI commitments in 2025.

Finally, the past couple weeks have seen the introduction of browser-based and multi-app assistants from major AI players – OpenAI’s Operator and Perplexity Assistant. This category of AI agents has the potential to be much less bounded, opening up a cascade of downstream consequences for a large population.

As always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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Our first Shift revisits the TikTok ban, now that it has technically gone into effect. The ban is being facilitated by app-store owners Apple and Google, who are still complying with the law despite Trump’s 75-day non-enforcement. A resolution is needed since the app will eventually become unusable without updates/fixes. New users are already no longer able to download TikTok, and existing users can’t redownload it to new devices.

Next, we take a look at the spate of executive actions, orders, and repeals in Trump’s first week. As of this writing, he has signed a total of 57 presidential actions including 30 executive orders – encompassing technology, energy and the environment, trade and foreign policy, immigration, national security, social policy, and the federal government. 

Finally, Blue Origin successfully launched its long-awaited New Glenn rocket – demonstrating its ability to send satellites into orbit and eventually astronauts into space. The launch begins a new era for Blue Origin, which has long been stuck in “development hell.”

As always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Enjoy.

– Tam

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Our first Shift examines the massive insured losses stemming from the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires, and what it will mean for homeowners and insurers in the future. Higher premiums in the years ahead are a given. The question is how will they be passed along.

Next, China’s investment push in AI is paying off, with its models climbing the leaderboards. DeepSeek-V3 is now leading the market among open models. What makes DeepSeek-V3 particularly notable is that it offers comparable performance to leading proprietary models like Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet v2 but is 53x cheaper for inference.

Finally, Trump wants NATO countries to increase their defense spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP. His claim during the campaign that he would not defend a member that didn’t meet its target is also raising questions about NATO countries’ overreliance on the US security umbrella.

As always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Thank you.

– Tam

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Our first Shift takes a look at Meta’s decision to stop 3rd-party fact-checking and take a lighter touch with content moderation, moving instead towards a user-generated "Community Notes" model (like X). We may see other big tech firms follow Meta’s lead.

Next, the release of OpenAI’s “GPT-5” (Orion) has been delayed and plagued with troubles. Its issues have their roots in AI’s perennial resource problems – training data and compute. This is all part of a vigorous debate in the AI field on whether “scaling laws” will soon hit a wall.

Finally, Uber has been making moves that confirm its growing commitment to robotaxis and belief that the market is now ready. It doesn’t have too many rivals in the robotaxi race – its scale as the world’s largest ride-hailing company means it will enjoy the “best utilization and unit economics” for AVs.

One little tweak we’re trying out – we’re moving our meatiest brief to the second shift out of the three. (It used to be first, in the interests of putting our best foot forward.) We’re hoping this small shuffle might tempt a few more folks to join us in our paid subscription – and help make 6Pages more financially sustainable.

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Thank you.

– Tam

Our first Shift fills in some of the blanks since the last time we covered incoming President Trump’s slate of appointments last month. In this brief, we zoom in on the more notable among the key regulators and administrators who will shape the economy during the 2nd Trump administration.

Next, the DC Circuit just upheld the law requiring that ByteDance divest in order for TikTok to operate in the US. The TikTok ban is set to go into effect on Jan 19 2025 – just a little over one month from now. While TikTok still has some potential outs, the noose is drawing tighter.

Finally, Google’s Quantum AI group just revealed its latest quantum chip called Willow. Willow represents a significant breakthrough in being able to “reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits.” Willow also performed a benchmark computation in less than 5 minutes that would take one of the fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (10^25) years.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift fills in the blanks as to what Amazon – still the #1 cloud player – is doing to catch up in AI. Recently, and at this week’s re:Invent, it made a strong case that it’s committed to being among the winners in generative AI – and that it has some sound pillars to stand on.

In the world of 6Pages, we sometimes joke that “one signal is a data point, two signals is a trend.” Now, we have two major AI startups – Perplexity and OpenAI – talking about bringing ads to their interfaces. So…new technology but basically the same economics?

And in our final Shift, the FCC has finally approved Starlink’s direct-to-cell service with T-Mobile – in a first for the FCC. T-Mobile users might soon have access to satellite-based texting in cellular dead zones across the US.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at the eye-opening growth of X alternatives Threads (owned by Meta) and Bluesky, in the aftermath of the election and the subsequent exodus of “Twitter quitters.” While X remains the leading “digital public square” app, Threads is nearing its size and Bluesky is growing fast.

Next, big tech firms are starting to get regulated like banks. The US CFPB just finalized a rule to put 7 large nonbank companies with digital payment applications under supervision – including Google, Apple, Amazon, PayPal, PayPal-owned Venmo, Block (Cash App), and Zelle.

Finally, a market shift for the coming shopping season – the past few weeks have seen momentum behind wall-mounted smart displays from big tech firms. Big tech is hoping these smart displays become the new hub for the consumer home.

One final note – the 6Pages team is going on hiatus next week so we can spend some quality time over Thanksgiving with family and loved ones. We hope you get to do the same. 

Thank you for being part of the 6Pages community – we are grateful for you.

– Tam

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Our first Shift looks at the spate of appointments made by Trump since the election. It promises to reshape the federal government and its regulators, and potentially open up M&A transactions next year. 

Next, we delve into the long-awaited launch of Amazon Haul – an ultra-low-priced section of Amazon’s shopping site that goes head-to-head against Temu and Shein. The coming restrictions on the de minimis exemption and Trump’s planned tariffs will, however, change the game once again.

Finally, Google DeepMind just opened up the source code and model weights for its AI protein-prediction model AlphaFold 3. Unfortunately for some, it’s only available for non-commercial use, but it still has the potential to transform drug discovery.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at the tension between this week’s market optimism and the expected new tariff regime, which are likely to be inflationary. The US president has powers delegated from Congress to institute tariffs, which means the ball could get rolling on this from Day 1.

Next, the promised tariffs are likely to accelerate the ongoing shift of supply chains away from China. This week saw reports of US shoe and drinkware brands, drugmakers, and chip-equipment manufacturers all making moves to cut their supply chains’ exposure to China.

Finally, this week’s election will shake up the already-strained auto industry even further. Even for US automakers, the election isn’t all good news. Tariffs on vehicles and parts imported from Mexico represent risk, and EV makers will likely take a hit from new policies. Some automakers are already considering doubling down on manufacturing in the US market.

This 3 Shifts Edition represents a milestone for 6Pages – our 700th market shift researched! If you’re enjoying 6Pages and haven’t subscribed yet, please consider joining us. Through this weekend only, get 7% off a subscription for life using the code 6PAGES700: https://www.6pages.com/join

You can also sign up for our free version on 6Pages.com

Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift delves into the fascinating debate about what is open-source AI. The Open Source Initiative’s release of its official definition this week is causing waves, with Meta – an OSI backer – publicly disagreeing with the definition.

Next, struggles in Boeing and Airbus’ space businesses alongside recent victories by SpaceX are pointing to a reshaping of the US space industry. SpaceX has lately been using its ascendancy to throw its weight around.

Finally, Microsoft-owned GitHub Copilot – the most widely used AI developer tool – announced an array of new updates that will expand Copilot’s universe. Perhaps most notably, Copilot will allow developers to switch among LLMs, loosening its ties to OpenAI. 

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at Amazon and Walmart’s recent expansions of their same-day prescription delivery. While Amazon made its announcement first, Walmart is the one leading the way with free medication delivery for Walmart+ members, in conjunction with grocery orders. 

Next, J&J’s FDA-approved, ketamine-derived drug Spravato will reach $1B in sales this year, growing 55% year-over-year, and could eventually reach $5B. It’s the first example of a psychedelic-based drug finding success, in a market that needs some good news.

Finally, the past couple weeks have seen new entries from Anthropic, Nvidia, and Meta in the realm of capable LLMs. This week, OpenAI looks to be falling behind. But given the pace of the industry, who knows what will happen next week.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at the recent spate of retailers – e.g. IKEA, Costco, Whole Foods – engaging in consumer price cuts of 10-20%. Price levels are still 21% higher than in pre-pandemic Feb 2020, but they seem to be heading in the right direction.

Next, the battle between WordPress and WP Engine has escalated into a potentially existential crisis for the WordPress ecosystem. While WordPress isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, the perception of the ecosystem as unstable is unlikely to help spur growth.

Finally, all 3 of the major public-cloud players – Amazon, Microsoft, and Google – are making deals to source nuclear energy to meet the needs of their AI data centers. Nuclear power is increasingly being viewed as an attractive source of low-carbon, non-intermittent electricity.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at the recent launches of tools like OpenAI’s Canvas that are pointing to collaborative AI being what’s next for the field. How people work with AI is perhaps as important as what the underlying model can do.

Next, NotebookLM’s Audio Overview feature can use source documents to generate engaging two-speaker podcasts that are fully synthetic and “shockingly good.” The sheer diversity of use cases we’ve already seen is remarkable.

Finally, we take a look at Apple’s satellite texting, which is now available for non-emergency use. The industry has been moving in the direction of satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for the past few years, and seems to be reaching an inflection point.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at OpenAI’s for-profit transformation and journey to becoming the next big tech firm. Its transformation is more than just legal structure – it’s a cultural shift from a research organization to becoming a very different “product-first” firm.

Next, news outlets like CNN and Reuters are shifting away from free (ad-supported) and towards paywalled subscriptions. For middle-tier outlets with undifferentiated content, however, the pendulum may be swinging back in search of a lucrative business model that just isn’t there.

Finally, we take a look at what’s next after the dockworker strike. While the two sides have come to a temporary agreement that will take them past the election, the story is not done. While a lot of attention has been paid to wages, automation has been the major sticking point.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Our first Shift looks at the price war underway in the new class of weight-loss drugs. Now that supply shortages are easing, the two heavyweights – Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly – are slashing prices and changing business models. Take a read to find out which one is in the lead.

Next, Meta had a swath of AR/VR-related announcements at this week’s Connect 2024. One of the most notable reveals was the Orion AR smart glasses prototype, which builds upon Meta’s success with its Ray-Ban smart glasses and its leadership in open-source AI.

Finally, we take a look at the new digital driver’s licenses, which can now be added to your Apple Wallet or Google Wallet (at least if you’re in California or a growing number of other states). Notably, they can also be used to buy age-restricted products at select retail outlets.

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Enjoy.

– Tam