With more than three decades of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets, Porter has long been a prominent voice in Canadian economic commentary. As author of the widely followed “Talking Points” and co-writer of BMO’s flagship publication Focus, his analysis frequently shapes how investors, businesses, and policymakers interpret shifts in the broader economy. The discussion provides insight into the current economic landscape and what it may mean for homeowners, buyers, and investors navigating one of the most uncertain housing environments in recent memory.

The conversation begins with the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices above the $90–$100 range in recent trading sessions, raising concerns about a renewed inflationary cycle. Porter examines whether current market conditions are drifting toward the stagflation scenario previously modeled by BMO analysts. Oil shocks historically ripple through inflation, bond yields, and mortgage markets, and the potential implications for both fixed and variable mortgage rates are explored in detail.

Attention then turns to what was once described as the “mortgage renewal cliff,” a period that will see the largest volume of mortgages renewing in Canadian history throughout 2026. While Canada’s financial system appears structurally resilient, questions remain about the financial health of households themselves. Rising balances on lines of credit and credit cards, combined with a declining savings rate, suggest that many Canadians may already be reallocating income toward higher housing costs and everyday expenses. Porter shares his perspective on household balance sheets and whether these pressures could translate into broader economic risks.

Beyond short-term financial strain, the discussion explores a deeper structural issue within the Canadian economy: its heavy reliance on housing and population growth as primary drivers of expansion. As productivity growth lags and demographic momentum begins to slow, questions emerge about the long-term sustainability of housing demand relative to incomes. Porter outlines what genuine economic tailwinds might look like over the next decade—from expanded trade and energy exports to renewed investment in manufacturing and productivity-enhancing sectors—and why those developments could be critical for Canada’s long-term growth trajectory.

Taken together, the conversation offers a high-level examination of the economic forces shaping Canadian real estate at a pivotal moment. With geopolitical tensions, financial pressures, and structural economic shifts unfolding simultaneously, housing sits squarely at the intersection of global economics and personal financial decision-making.

Understanding those forces may ultimately determine whether market participants are reacting to events—or anticipating the next phase of Canada’s housing cycle.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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For decades, governments typically treated Indigenous claims as unresolved legal disputes to be negotiated or settled through treaties. This agreement marks a notable evolution. Instead of simply acknowledging that claims exist, the federal government is formally recognizing that the Musqueam possess Aboriginal title within their traditional territory—an area that includes large portions of Metro Vancouver. While the agreement does not immediately alter land titles or the land registry, it establishes a framework for what officials describe as “incremental implementation,” meaning changes could unfold gradually through policy, negotiations, and future legal interpretations.

For many residents, the implications are difficult to interpret. Nearly two million homeowners live within the broader area referenced in Musqueam traditional territory, and questions have emerged about how this recognition might intersect with long-standing concepts of private property ownership. Legal experts emphasize that the agreement is not a treaty and does not directly override existing property rights. However, it acknowledges a legal “burden” on Crown sovereignty—essentially recognizing an underlying Indigenous interest in the land that could shape future governance, land management, and resource decisions.

Adding to the complexity is the broader legal context. Canada’s commitment to aligning policy with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) establishes new standards for how governments consult and collaborate with Indigenous nations. 

To explore the issue in greater depth, this episode features Dallas Brodie, MLA for Vancouver-Quilchena and interim leader of OneBC. A former defence lawyer and broadcaster, Brodie has been one of the most outspoken political figures commenting on the implications of Indigenous rights frameworks and land-title recognition. Her perspective reflects a growing conversation taking place across the province about how reconciliation, economic development, and private property rights intersect in the years ahead.

Throughout the discussion, we examine the legal mechanics of the Musqueam agreement, the role of federal and provincial governments, and how emerging court decisions recognizing Aboriginal title may influence future policy. We also explore questions surrounding transparency, the relationship between reconciliation initiatives and economic investment, and how governments can provide clarity for residents navigating these complex developments.

As British Columbia continues to evolve its approach to Indigenous relations and land governance, one thing is clear: the conversation around land rights, shared authority, and reconciliation is entering a new and pivotal phase. Understanding the legal, economic, and political dimensions of these changes will be essential for policymakers, homeowners, and investors alike.

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This episode opens with a staggering statistic: Toronto new home sales have collapsed to just 269 units in January 2026 — the lowest level ever recorded. That’s 36% below last year, 80% below the 10-year average, and an extraordinary 91% beneath the 2022 peak. Meanwhile, more than 20,500 unsold condo units sit on the market — representing 76 months of inventory. At today’s absorption pace, it would take over six years to clear what’s already built.

The implications are enormous. Residential investment has historically accounted for 7–9% of Canada’s GDP. Developers don’t build because demand exists — they build because forward sales unlock financing. And right now, forward sales have stalled. Vancouver mirrors this slowdown: just 73 units were released in January, compared to over 700 two years ago. The construction pipeline is shrinking fast.

But this story extends beyond condos.

British Columbia’s newly released $13 billion deficit budget introduces additional taxation at a time when affordability is already strained. A new 7% PST on rental property and strata management services will raise operating costs for condo owners. Commercial real estate commissions are now subject to PST, potentially dampening investment flows. The school tax has increased for higher-value homes. The speculation tax is rising for non-residents. Together, these measures reinforce a broader fiscal shift: structurally higher deficits and growing reliance on public spending to stabilize a slowing economy.

National resale data reinforces the recalibration. Sales are down 16.2% year-over-year. Home prices nationally have fallen 23% from peak levels, with Ontario leading the downturn at a 26% decline. Yet inventory remains below long-term averages, suggesting stabilization may eventually emerge from constrained supply rather than revived demand.

Meanwhile, consumer insolvencies are climbing. Over 140,000 Canadians filed in 2025 — the highest since 2009. Notably, more homeowners are seeking insolvency protection, a signal that mortgage renewals at higher rates are beginning to bite. Fixed mortgage rates have drifted lower toward 3.79%, but households appear focused on balance sheet repair rather than renewed leverage.

Rental markets are softening as well. Vancouver one-bedroom rents are down 11% year-over-year. With population growth flattening and a wave of purpose-built rental completing, further declines remain possible.

The through-line is clear: Canada’s growth model — heavily reliant on housing, debt expansion, and rising land values — is under pressure. Developers are pulling back. Households are deleveraging. Governments are running larger deficits. The adjustment is cyclical on the surface, but structural underneath.

The deeper question is whether Canada can evolve its economic model toward productivity, investment, and sustainable growth — or whether housing will remain both the engine and the vulnerability of the nation’s balance sheet.

2026 may be remembered as the year the market stopped pretending — and started adjusting.

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In this episode, we move beyond the headlines and into substance, joined by one of the country’s leading voices in Aboriginal law, Anita Boscariol, Associate Counsel at Watson Goepel. With deep expertise in UNDRIP and British Columbia’s DRIPA legislation, Anita brings clarity to a topic that has generated more heat than light.

At the center of the discussion is a question many British Columbians never expected to ask: can Aboriginal title and private fee simple ownership legally coexist?

Anita begins by unpacking the legal architecture that led us here. Section 35 of Canada’s Constitution recognizes and affirms existing Aboriginal and treaty rights. UNDRIP, adopted federally and provincially through DRIPA, did not create new rights but reframed how governments must approach decision-making — shifting from simple consultation toward alignment with Indigenous rights and title. In effect, the legal environment has matured. Courts are now applying principles that have existed constitutionally for decades with greater rigor.

The Cowichan ruling raised eyebrows because it discussed Aboriginal title over lands currently held in private fee simple. The court described Aboriginal title as a “prior and senior right” — language that sparked anxiety among homeowners. Anita explains that this does not automatically invalidate private ownership, nor does it signal immediate land transfers. Rather, it forces courts and governments to confront how overlapping legal interests can be reconciled.

The episode explores whether historical use — such as fishing or seasonal occupation — could support future claims, and whether 95% of British Columbia being unceded territory places the entire province at risk. Anita clarifies that while most of BC lacks historic treaties, successful title claims require strict legal tests, including exclusive occupation at the time of Crown sovereignty. The bar remains high.

For homeowners, the message is measured: avoid panic-driven decisions. Stay informed. Understand the distinction between legal theory and practical outcome. The Cowichan case signals a continued evolution in Indigenous-Crown relations — not the erasure of private ownership.

As British Columbia navigates reconciliation within a modern economic framework, the balance between constitutional recognition and property certainty will define the next chapter.

And in a province where real estate underpins both household wealth and public finance, that chapter matters profoundly.

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But beneath that surface improvement, cracks are forming. Developers—arguably the most forward-looking participants in housing—are pulling back sharply. Land sales, an early indicator of future housing supply, have collapsed well below historical norms. When developers stop buying land, it’s rarely about today’s headlines; it’s a judgment call on whether prices, financing, and demand will justify risk years down the road. The implication is uncomfortable: fewer projects today guarantees tighter supply later, particularly as population growth and confidence eventually normalize.

Employment data adds another layer of complexity. Canada’s labor market is cooling, but not in the way past downturns looked. Job losses are emerging in traditional sectors, yet unemployment hasn’t spiked because the workforce itself is shrinking—driven by retirements and slower population growth. That structural shift matters. Slower labor growth caps wage growth, which in turn limits housing demand over the long run. At the same time, uneven job creation across provinces may quietly redirect housing and rental demand to where employment is strongest.

On the rental front, the story is finally turning for tenants. Asking rents have fallen for more than a year and recently hit multi-year lows, with Vancouver among the steepest declines. Yet even here, the rate of decline is slowing—hinting that rental markets may be approaching stabilization.

Governments, facing slowing activity, are stepping in with incentives. Programs like Nova Scotia’s ultra-low down payment initiative underscore a key theme of the episode: these policies are less a sign of strength than a response to economic fragility. They don’t solve affordability at its root; they increase leverage in an already indebted system.

Add rising home insurance costs—driven by aging housing stock and extreme weather—and the cost pressures on ownership and rental housing continue to build, even as headline prices soften.

The takeaway is clear: today’s market is defined by contradictions. Affordability is improving, but demand remains hesitant. Supply is being quietly choked off. Costs are shifting rather than disappearing. And interest rates, once the dominant force, may now be the least volatile variable.

This episode isn’t about calling a top or a bottom. It’s about understanding where the next pressure points are forming—and why the decisions being made today may shape Canada’s housing landscape for the next decade.

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The discussion begins with a critical stabilizing metric: mortgage arrears. Despite mounting pressure elsewhere, Canada’s arrears rate remains flat at 0.25%, with just over 12,000 mortgages delinquent out of nearly five million. By global standards, this is extraordinarily low—especially compared to the U.S., where arrears sit more than six times higher. Historically, Canada has never experienced sustained spikes in this metric, suggesting that while prices are falling, systemic mortgage distress has not yet materialized.

From there, attention shifts to a growing concern for long-term growth: British Columbia’s rising perception as “uninvestable.” Recent legal developments surrounding the Prince Rupert Port Authority underscore a broader risk narrative—projects approved at every level can still face years of legal uncertainty. As foreign capital grows more cautious, the downstream consequences become clear: fewer housing starts, tighter supply down the road, and higher costs borne by everyday Canadians.

The episode then tackles a powerful and timely issue—seller psychology. In one of the most competitive markets in over a decade, many sellers are attempting to cut commissions in an effort to preserve net proceeds. The irony is stark. With inventory at multi-year highs, days on market stretching to seven-year peaks, and price cuts routinely reaching $100,000–$150,000, execution matters more than ever. In a 9% sales-to-active ratio environment—the lowest in 13 years—pricing mistakes aren’t corrected, they’re punished. The takeaway is clear: this is the kind of market where experience, exposure, and strategy matter most.

Zooming out, Toronto provides a cautionary parallel. GTA prices are now down 27% from their 2022 peak, sales are at post-financial-crisis lows, and inventory has surged to record January levels. Vancouver’s February data shows similar stress. Sales fell to just 1,104 transactions—down 38% month over month and 29% year over year—ranking among the weakest months in two decades. Inventory now sits 38% above long-term averages, while prices continue their steady descent. The benchmark HPI has dropped for ten consecutive months, pulling values back to late-2021 levels.

The episode closes with a crucial reminder: housing downturns don’t stay contained within housing. Falling prices ripple outward—reducing government revenues, slowing construction, tightening credit, and ultimately weighing on employment and consumer spending. Some price correction is healthy. Prolonged, disorderly declines are not. The risk ahead isn’t that the market is adjusting—but that we underestimate how deeply housing is embedded in Canada’s entire economic system.

This episode offers a clear, data-driven look at where we stand, why the bottom isn’t in yet, and why the next phase of this cycle will demand far more discipline.

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This paralysis is being compounded by a Bank of Canada (BoC) that has opted for a "wait and see" approach, holding rates at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting. The Governor’s pivot toward "uncertainty" suggests that growth concerns are finally outweighing inflation fears. However, this lack of forward guidance is a double-edged sword. When a central bank claims the climate is "too uncertain," it is a tacit admission that they no longer trust their own data models. This caution is reflected in the mortgage market: while 43% of new borrowers are still gambling on variable rates, the smart money is beginning to eye five-year fixed products. With projections suggesting the overnight rate could climb another 100 basis points to 3.25% by 2031, the era of "cheap money" is not coming back, making "locking in" a prudent defensive maneuver for the household balance sheet.

The human cost of this economic friction is becoming impossible to ignore. In 2025, Canada saw a record 120,016 people emigrate—the fourth consecutive year of growth in departures. Most alarming is that 54% of those leaving are aged 25 to 49. This is not just a "brain drain"; it is an "equity drain." When your core tax base and household-forming demographic flee for more affordable jurisdictions, it signals a systemic failure in the Canadian dream. This exodus is mirrored by a collapse in homeownership rates across every age group under 75. For the first time in modern history, young Canadians are being forced into long-term tenancy, not by choice, but by a market that has prioritized 500-square-foot investment vehicles over livable family homes.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the labor market may be the catalyst for the next shift. With 21% of businesses planning staff cuts—the highest level since 2016—and EI recipients up 16% year-over-year, the pressure on the BoC to cut rates may become irresistible. Yet, retail sales paradoxically hit all-time highs last month, driven by spending on "self-care" items like clothing and jewelry rather than building materials. This suggests a consumer base that has given up on the "big" dreams of renovation and ownership, choosing instead to spend their dwindling disposable income on immediate gratification. We are in a volatile transition period where sentiment is negative, but the underlying data suggests that once today’s inventory is absorbed, we will wake up to a market with no new supply to meet the next cycle of demand.

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This inventory vacuum creates a "supply cliff" that market participants must brace for. While current completions remain high due to the lag in construction cycles—nearly matching the 2024 record—starts have cratered by 88% over the last three years. By 2029, the industry is projecting a "zero-delivery" year for new condos. However, as the pre-sale model falters, a new titan is emerging: purpose-built rentals. Driven by federal tax incentives and a desperate need for stable housing stock, rental starts hit a multi-decade high in 2025. Yet, there is a paradox in the West; Vancouver is simultaneously grappling with a 30-year high vacancy rate of 3.7%, proving that even in a supply-starved nation, price and demand have a ceiling.

The macro-economic backdrop further complicates the recovery. Canada’s GDP shrank by 0.3% in late 2025, the sharpest non-pandemic decline in nearly a decade. While headline inflation has seen a "ghost" uptick to 2.4%—largely due to year-over-year tax distortions—core inflation is actually cooling. This puts the Bank of Canada in a delicate holding pattern. As they head into the January 28th meeting, the consensus is a rate hold at 2.25%. For investors, the era of "easy gains" through pre-sale appreciation is over; the new game is "gentle density."

North Vancouver’s recent adoption of Zoning Amendment Bylaw 9137 is the "first-mover" opportunity of 2026. By legalizing multiplexes across nearly 4,900 lots, the city has fired the starting gun for small-scale developers to convert single-family lots into three-to-six unit "AAA" assets. 

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This episode sets out to unpack the economic forces now shaping the year ahead and offer clear-eyed predictions for what lies ahead in 2026. It’s a rare moment where even seasoned market observers admit that forecasting feels unusually difficult. That’s precisely why this conversation matters—and why we invite viewers to leave their own predictions, so we can revisit them in a year and see who truly had a crystal ball. 

National sales slipped 2.7% month-over-month, with 2025 closing down 1.9% overall, while Greater Vancouver posted its weakest sales volume year in 25 years. Active inventory fell for a fourth consecutive month, now sitting 10% below the long-term average and roughly half of what it was in 2015. Prices edged down again, with Canada’s HPI falling 4% in 2025 and BC’s average home price dropping below $1 million for the first time in years. Provincial dollar volume fell more than 8%, unit sales declined, and affordability remains strained. 

Overlay this with rising unemployment—now at 6.8%, experiencing the second-largest monthly spike since 2020—and a labor market increasingly concentrated in essential services while private-sector industries contract. Youth unemployment has surged past 13%, underscoring a generation facing diminished economic momentum. Add to that the growing presence of land claims across BC, including new frameworks for “Land Back” initiatives, and the result is a market shadowed by questions around long-term confidence and property rights.

At the same time, a global shift in capital allocation is underway. In the United States, equities have overtaken real estate as the dominant driver of household wealth for only the second time since the 1980s. Canada remains more heavily concentrated in property—real estate still represents nearly 42% of household assets—but that imbalance raises important questions about diversification, productivity, and long-term resilience. 

Against this backdrop, the episode moves into bold 2026 forecasts: Will Canada technically enter a recession? Where will population growth land? How high will unemployment rise before stabilizing? Will inflation remain contained? 

Where will the Bank of Canada take rates—and what will that mean for fixed and variable mortgages? How far will mortgage arrears climb? What new government policies could reshape the housing landscape? And finally, what does all this mean for sales volumes, inventory, absorption rates, rental prices, luxury transactions, and home values across detached homes, townhomes, and condos? 

This is a year defined by crosscurrents—economic contraction colliding with structural housing shortages, policy ambition clashing with affordability realities. 2026 may not deliver clarity, but it will deliver consequence. And for those watching closely, it may also deliver opportunity—if you understand the cycle you’re standing in.

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Beneath the surface, household balance sheets are doing more of the heavy lifting. While transaction activity remains subdued, borrowing against housing has accelerated. Recent national data shows home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances climbing to nearly $180 billion, the highest level in six years, after a decade-long pullback. Credit itself isn’t inherently problematic—many homeowners use it productively to renovate or reinvest—but the concern today is why borrowing is rising while sales slow. When leverage grows to cover higher living costs or to refinance other debt, risk accumulates quietly. The current pattern bears uncomfortable similarities to 2017, when investor-led borrowing rose amid soft resale activity and a wave of new supply.

Commercial real estate tells a parallel story of recalibration. Downtown Vancouver office vacancy rose to 12.8% by the end of 2025—the highest level in over twenty years—driven largely by oversupply from recent project deliveries and a continued “flight to quality.” Older Class B and C buildings now sit near 18% vacancy, while top-tier space remains comparatively resilient. Construction has slowed sharply, signalling that the market is adjusting, not collapsing. Even so, Vancouver remains one of Canada’s most structurally resilient office markets, with vacancy still below Toronto and Ottawa.

Early warning signs are also emerging in household stress metrics. Mortgage arrears in Canada reached a five-year high late last year. British Columbia remains below the national average, but at its highest level in six years. With more than one million mortgages set to renew in 2026—many at higher payments—this pressure is unlikely to ease quickly.

A comparison with Toronto underscores Vancouver’s uniqueness. GTA sales also fell to a 25-year low, but inventory there has surged to record highs and prices are now down roughly 27% from the 2022 peak. Vancouver’s correction has been more measured—but persistent.

Locally, December data reinforces the theme. Sales volumes remain well below historical norms, inventory is at a 12-year high for this time of year, and days on market have stretched to levels last seen in 2019. Prices continue to drift lower: the benchmark index is down for the ninth consecutive month, returning values to early-2023 levels, with detached, townhomes, and condos all sharing similar declines.

Looking back, 2025 closed with the fewest home sales since 2000—yet also the highest number of listings on record. That imbalance sets the table for 2026: a market with abundant choice for buyers and intensified competition for sellers. What happens next will hinge on confidence—both in household finances and in the broader economic outlook. 

Next week, we’ll outline what this means for sales, supply, and pricing as the year unfolds.

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We debated recession risk, population growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, mortgages, arrears, and government policy. Some calls landed squarely—like inflation finishing near 2.2% and the Bank of Canada settling close to where we thought. Others, like population forecasts and recession timing, were blown apart by an unexpected demographic reversal, stronger-than-anticipated labour resilience, and policy shifts few saw coming. The population story alone flipped every expectation: instead of adding hundreds of thousands, Canada actually started shrinking by Q3—something unprecedented in modern history—and that shock flowed straight into housing demand, pricing power, and sentiment.

From there, we turn to housing fundamentals, where reality humbled just about everyone. We recap how sales volumes fell instead of rising, how inventory surged far beyond expectations, how the pre-sale market nearly froze, and how price performance told a very different story than most forecast. Rental markets softened, luxury retreated, and Greater Vancouver’s “winner” markets were fewer and far more nuanced than anyone predicted. 

We didn’t shy away from calling our misses what they were—some wildly optimistic, others too conservative—but each reveals something important: this market continues to behave in ways that challenge even the most experienced economists, analysts, and practitioners. Along the way, we contrast our calls with prominent bank forecasts, highlight the global and political developments that no one had on their radar a year ago, and show how quickly “consensus” can turn to fiction.

This episode isn’t about pretending foresight; it’s about learning in hindsight. It’s a candid, data-driven reflection on a year where expectations collided with reality, where economic resilience defied narrative, where policy failed to align with planning, and where Canada’s housing story took another unexpected turn. If you enjoy a mix of humility, humour, uncomfortable truth, and meaningful takeaways, this is one of those episodes that reminds everyone—industry pros included—that predicting real estate is far from easy. 

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Non-permanent residents are leaving in record numbers, permanent residents are quietly exiting the country at near-historic highs, and government targets suggest this outflow may continue for the next two years. The last time Canada experienced a demographic shock, it was driven by rapid population acceleration — and it rewrote housing dynamics overnight. Now we are watching the same type of historic shift, only in reverse, and the consequences are every bit as significant.

Those consequences are already showing up in the housing market. Canada is delivering the largest volume of purpose-built rental construction in history at the exact moment demand is softening. Rental inventory is surging, vacancy rates are climbing, incentives are returning, and the national market is clearly moving toward cheaper, more competitive rents. 

That may temporarily make renting feel like the smarter financial move, but history is unequivocal: the long-term wealth gap between renters and owners remains enormous, and demographic shifts don’t change that reality. 

Nowhere is this more evident than in Toronto, where the condo market has all but stalled — sales have collapsed from record highs to generational lows, new project launches have effectively halted, and completed but unsold units are stacking up at levels never recorded before. It is the clearest example of what happens when the wrong kind of supply finally outruns broad market demand in an economy built on perpetual growth assumptions. Currently, dwellings under construction is running at 500% more than the population growth rate when the historical average is 50%.

And yet, the broader economy still sends mixed signals. Mortgage growth has recently ticked up, supported largely by first-time buyers stepping in where investors and move-up purchasers have stepped back. Retail spending shows households remain cautious. Sentiment readings are improving - considerably in the business sector but insolvencies in places like B.C. are quietly hitting new records. At the same time, household net worth is sitting at all-time highs, driven by financial markets that reward those already positioned at the top. 20% of Canadians own 70% of Canadian Assets! 

Affordability, meanwhile, has “improved” — but only relative to a crisis peak. Even after seven quarters of easing, ownership costs are still near the worst levels Canada has ever seen, and with rates likely holding into 2026, further progress may need to come from unpopular but necessary price declines rather than overall policy relief. In this weeks podcast, we break down this critical demographic turning point — what a shrinking population truly means for housing demand, pricing power, rental markets, developers, mortgage holders, and anyone trying to make a disciplined real estate decision in the year ahead.

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The most important shift begins with population. Canada’s population fell by roughly 76,000 people in Q3, a 0.2% quarterly decline and the largest contraction on record outside of pandemic border closures. Annual population growth has slowed to just 0.2%, the lowest level ever recorded. This reversal is almost entirely driven by non-permanent residents—foreign students and temporary workers—who accounted for nearly all population growth between 2022 and 2024. That trend has now flipped. 

Canada lost 176,000 non-permanent residents in a single quarter, bringing their share of the population down to 6.8%, with federal policy targeting closer to 5% by 2027. For housing, this is seismic. The demand tailwind that drove rents, prices, and pre-sales for years has disappeared just as housing completions and rental construction approach record levels. The result is straightforward: softer rents, rising developer inventory, and growing caution among investors—a dynamic that may not fully bottom out until 2027.

Rental data confirms the shift. Vancouver one-bedroom rents are down 8% year-over-year, national rents have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2023, and vacancy rates have surged. Vancouver’s purpose-built vacancy rate reached 3.7%, the highest since 1988, while Toronto hit 3% for the first time since the pandemic. Importantly, the largest wave of rental completions is still ahead. While falling rents offer short-term relief, they also widen the monthly gap between renting and owning—pushing some Canadians toward renting longer. Yet the long-term wealth divide remains stark when comparing long term outcomes between homeowners’ median net worth (on average 10 to 19 times higher than renters’) - depending on age group. Short-term affordability and long-term wealth creation are moving in opposite directions.

Housing supply tells a similar story of imbalance. National housing starts are uneven, single-family construction is shrinking, and major B.C. markets—including Vancouver—continue to slow. National home prices have fallen 21% from their 2022 peak, returning to 2017 levels in real terms. In Greater Vancouver, benchmark prices are set to fall for a tenth straight month, ending the year near three-year lows.

Taken together, this is not a crisis—but it is a reset. 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined less by momentum and more by discipline, selectivity, and long-term strategy. And for those paying attention, the data isn’t just noise—it’s a market signal.

Join the webinar:  www.laidlercapital.com/emptynesters?ref=thevancouverlife

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

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ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

On paper, this all signals momentum. But in practice, the path to delivering “Missing Middle” housing has proven far more complex.

Nowhere is that tension clearer than in Burnaby—one of the earliest and most enthusiastic adopters of Bill 44, and now one of the loudest voices pushing back. Residents have raised concerns about scale, height, setbacks, and parking. And in response, the city has revised its bylaws, reducing allowable height, shrinking lot coverage, expanding setbacks, and increasing parking requirements. These changes may soothe neighbourhood discomfort, but they also directly affect the number of new homes that can realistically be built. We also get into a new, one of a kind single family project launch in Burnaby that is uniquely suited for downsizers and/or growing families.

To help us understand what all of this means—not just for Burnaby, but for housing supply across the entire Lower Mainland—we’re joined by someone at the forefront of multiplex development: Bill Laidler. Bill is a leader in the Missing Middle space, with more than 400 homes in development. He is a developer, educator, and one of the most articulate advocates for creating generational housing—helping grandparents live near their grandkids, while unlocking attainable ownership for young families. His previous two appearances on this channel are among our most viewed ever.

Today, Bill walks us through the real impacts of Bill 44 so far: what’s working, what isn’t, and how recent municipal pushback could reshape the next decade of housing supply. We discuss the political friction between provincial goals and municipal authority, examine the Burnaby bylaw changes in detail, and explore whether multiplexes can meaningfully improve affordability—or risk becoming another high-priced, low-yield form of stratified ownership.

We also dive into the biggest challenges affecting feasibility today: high construction costs, stricter parking requirements, and the difficulty builders face securing financing for small-scale multi-unit projects. Bill offers candid insight into which barriers matter most—and what practical solutions could unlock real progress.

Finally, Bill shares a behind-the-scenes look at some of Laidler’s upcoming multiplex communities and how they aim to set a new standard for livability, design, and family-oriented density.

If you're wondering where the future of multi-family real estate investment is going and you want to understand where Missing Middle housing is truly headed—this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Let’s start with development. One of Vancouver’s biggest stories comes from Landa Global Properties, whose two-tower West End project was approved seven years ago but still hasn’t broken ground. Originally slated for 129 market rental units and $75 million in community amenity contributions — about $169,000 per home — the proposal has since been reworked to include 51 social housing units, fewer market rentals, and no Passive House certification, in an effort to make the project financially viable. Despite its prime location, the developer says rising costs, high interest rates, and market softness have made the numbers impossible to pencil. It’s a stark example of what’s happening city-wide: pro-formas no longer work, lenders are pulling back, and the result will be fewer new homes hitting the market in the years ahead.

The arrears rate, however, remains surprisingly stable. At 0.24%, it’s unchanged month-over-month — meaning 99.76% of mortgages are still being paid on time. Ontario saw a small uptick to 0.25%, but B.C. held steady at 0.21%. Despite six months into the “renewal wall,” Canadians are holding up better than expected. The real stress test arrives in 2026, when nearly one-third of all mortgages will reset at higher rates. Still, arrears remain 32% below their 30-year average, suggesting that for now, borrowers are managing the pressure.

An intriguing shift is showing up in the banking data: for the first time in 35 years, the total number of active mortgages is falling — down nearly 2% year-over-year. Normally that number rises 2–5% annually. Some of the decline may stem from mortgage payoffs during the pandemic’s liquidity boom, a slowdown in purchases, and the movement of lending to credit unions (which aren’t included in the national data). It’s another sign that both buyers and lenders are becoming increasingly cautious.

Turning to the data, Toronto’s prices are down 25% from the 2022 peak, and Vancouver’s aren’t far behind. December sales in Greater Vancouver fell 22% month-over-month to 1,844 units — the slowest pace in 25 years — and remain 21% below the 10-year average. Inventory dropped 12% from November but still sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio fell to 13% (9% for detached, 14% for townhomes, 15% for condos).

Prices followed suit. The HPI benchmark slipped another 0.3% to $1,123,700 — down 5.5% from  March’s annual high — bringing values back to February 2023 levels. Median and average prices also declined, to $950,000 and $1.24 million respectively.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

That supply shift is already reshaping the rental market. Canada now has roughly 180,000 purpose-built rental units in the pipeline, including an extraordinary 16% of British Columbia’s entire rental stock currently under construction. Contrast that with 2012, when fewer than 2,000 rentals were being built nationwide. Today, that number exceeds 35,000 annually. Vacancy rates, which hit a historic low near 1.5% in 2024, have already climbed to roughly 2.5%, with growing evidence they could push into the 4% range over the coming years. Rents are responding quickly. In Metro Vancouver, average one-bedroom rents fell in November to roughly $2,164 — down 9% year-over-year — with similar declines now seen across 17 of Canada’s largest metro areas. For investors, particularly institutions that piled aggressively into rental housing, this is an inflection point worth watching closely.

Against this backdrop, Ottawa has rolled out its latest housing intervention: Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency aimed almost entirely at affordable rental and social housing. The program brings long-awaited clarity around income-based definitions of affordability and outlines a three-pillar strategy focused on financing, building, and industrializing housing production. But it also exposes critical blind spots. The program does not target market-rate ownership or middle-class housing. Its standardized design catalogue emphasizes low-rise, low-density buildings, often with small unit sizes, at a time when cities are short family-sized homes and need density. Innovation is championed rhetorically, yet without a clear plan to reconcile higher upfront costs with housing volume or to modernize zoning and building codes that frequently block new construction methods before they scale.

Absorbing this supply would normally rely on strong population growth. That engine is stalling. Telecom data tracking mobile phone additions shows population growth slowing sharply, with 2025 on track for one of the weakest increases in over 70 years — and federal policy aimed at slowing it further.

Taken together, the picture is sobering. Canada is producing housing but increasingly rentals instead of ownership, volume instead of suitability, optics instead of outcomes. Until supply aligns with real demand, regulations match ambition, and confidence is restored, the housing crisis is unlikely to ease. The question isn’t just what Canada is building it’s who it’s being built for, and whether that answer still works.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

We start in Port Coquitlam, where a decade-long Kwikwetlem land claim has resurfaced, putting major institutional sites from the Riverview lands to Gates Park, back into the legal spotlight. The case is currently paused while provincial negotiations take place, but after the recent Richmond ruling and new cases in Kamloops and Sun Peaks, municipalities are bracing for more challenges. With 95% of B.C. land unceded, these decisions could set the tone for years of litigation.

Cross-border tensions are rising too. Several Alaska tribal nations have now petitioned the B.C. Supreme Court, arguing they should have a legal voice in Canadian resource projects including the Red Chris Mine, a federally fast-tracked, nation-building development. Their claim builds on the 2021 Desautel ruling, which recognized U.S.-based tribes as Aboriginal peoples of Canada. If the courts agree again, the implications for Canadian sovereignty, consultation rights, and investor confidence could be enormous.

Meanwhile, housing supply is weakening. Starts are falling across B.C., with multi-family projects in larger centres down sharply. Calgary is considering reversing its citywide rezoning, Burnaby has scaled back Bill 44, and pre-sale markets continue to collapse — all of which point to even lower starts ahead. But there is one major outlier: the Heather Lands proposal has returned with towers as tall as 46 storeys, driven by a massive attainable-housing initiative involving the Province and the MST Partnership. If approved, 85% of the 4,200 homes on site would be below-market — a scale almost unprecedented in Vancouver.

Demographics are shifting too. The median homebuyer age is rising rapidly, especially in the U.S., where it has surged to 59. Wealthier, older buyers are dominating the market, while first-time buyers shrink to record lows. Canada hasn’t seen the same extreme jump yet, but affordability constraints suggest we’re heading in that direction.

On the financial side, the fallout from “Condo Day” continues as the Belvedere project in Surrey enters creditor protection, revealing just how fragile pre-sale economics have become. 

Nationally, CREA reports modest price increases and slightly higher sales, but Ontario’s downturn continues to drag the national average lower.

And finally, inflation cooled to 2.2%, but not for the reasons that matter most to homebuyers. Gas prices did the heavy lifting, while shelter costs — rent, insurance, and mortgage interest — continue pushing inflation higher. Core measures remain sticky, meaning cheaper mortgages aren’t coming anytime soon.

Policies, courts, construction, demographics, and financing are all colliding at once. Understanding which forces are temporary and which are structural has never been more important. 

This week, we break it all down — and what it means for your next move in B.C.’s housing market.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In British Columbia, the October numbers underscore the shifting landscape. Home sales across the province dropped by 10% year-over-year, with only 6,370 units sold, yet the average price ticked up to $987,600 (a modest 0.8 % increase). At first glance, that may seem counter-intuitive—especially given the drop in the Greater Vancouver region, where prices actually fell 3.4%. What it reveals is a province where local dynamics are diverging: outside the Lower Mainland some markets are still inching up.

Nationally, every province except Ontario is showing year-over-year price increases. Ontario is down about 2.9%, even though pockets within have seen drops of 30 % or more. Two regions — Newfoundland and the Northwest Territories — are up more than 10%. So while the broader narrative remains “prices rising,” it’s the hyper-local story that matters.

Let’s go back to population. For decades, Canadian real estate bulls pointed to one immutable fact: we kept growing. New people meant new renters, new buyers, new demand — the structural scarcity argument. But Ottawa’s policy shift is turning the page. Between 2020 and 2024, population growth was arguably the strongest single driver of housing returns: it boosted rentals, shortened vacancy, supported pre-construction profits. Now the federal government’s reduced intake of permanent and temporary residents is removing that force. Growth dropping from 3% to near zero rewrites the math of valuations.

The consequences are broader than real estate: GDP growth in recent years has largely been powered by population expansion. With shrinking labour-force growth and rising youth and newcomer unemployment already flagged by the Bank of Canada, housing demand will be impacted. In effect, immigration policy is now acting as a rate hike — cooling demand without touching interest rates. For investors and developers, the easy “demographic premium” is gone.

Condo starts continue to collapse. New sales of condo units have tanked, and about 18 months later condo starts follow that trajectory. We’re seeing new-home construction at 15-year lows, fewer jobs in building trades, fewer units coming to market. And then there’s the demographic domino effect.

So what does this all mean for you—or for anyone who’s betting on real estate? The thesis of perpetual population-driven housing demand is under threat. Scarcity is no longer guaranteed. The fundamentals are shifting: slower growth means slower demand, longer lease-ups, muted appreciation. For developers, investors and agents alike: adaptation is key. The era of demographic tailwinds is fading. The question now is: who will stay ahead in the new chapter?

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Let’s start with Ottawa. The latest federal budget was pitched as a housing plan, but for many Canadians dreaming of ownership, it landed more like a broken promise. Funding for the Build Canada Homes program was cut nearly in half, the MURB tax incentive was quietly shelved, and the much-hyped “development charge relief” was watered down. 

Instead, the lion’s share of new spending targets rentals and supportive housing — not ownership. Worse, the government has committed to running the largest deficit in Canadian history over the next five years. With Ottawa already paying $55 billion annually just in interest, that figure could easily double if rates stay higher for longer. For context, in the 1990s, when interest payments hit 33% of total revenue, the government faced a full-blown fiscal crisis. Today we’re at 10%, but trending up — and if that number hits 20% or more, markets, rating agencies, and mortgage rates will all start reacting. The key takeaway: Canada isn’t in crisis yet, but it’s walking a thinner line than most realize.

Meanwhile, jobs data surprised to the upside, with 67,000 positions added in October — nearly all of them part-time. Private sector hiring picked up for the first time in months, but construction jobs fell again, particularly in B.C., where the slowdown in new builds is clearly visible. In Metro Vancouver, employment dipped 0.3%, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%. Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady into the new year. It’s a signal of cautious stability — the economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s far from thriving.

And then there’s the land claim shock. A recent B.C. Supreme Court ruling recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Tribes over a section of southeast Richmond — an area including roughly 150 private parcels — and struck down parts of the law that made land titles “indefeasible.” The decision, now on appeal, effectively allows two forms of ownership to co-exist on the same land — something that no lender or insurer can practically underwrite. 

And finally, the November housing stats. Sales rose 21% month-over-month to 2,257 — the second-strongest month of 2025 — but still sit 14% below last year and 14.5% under the 10-year average. Inventory, at 15,797 active listings, is up 13% year-over-year and sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio now rests at 14%. Detached homes sit at 11%, townhomes at 19%, and condos at 16%. The HPI benchmark price dropped again, down 0.8% month-over-month and 5.1% from the March peak to $1,132,500 — the lowest level since March 2023.

By the end of this episode, you’ll understand where prices are heading next, how the budget’s deficit math could affect mortgage rates, and why land titles — not just listings — are suddenly the biggest wildcard in B.C. real estate.

Foreclosures Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feD5v2ByQQc&t=5s  

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

The Home Price Index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and is now down 3.4% year-over-year. Average prices, meanwhile, rose a modest 0.7% compared to last year. Regionally, B.C. and Ontario are the only provinces still showing price declines, while every other province posted gains. Yukon led the pack with a 13.4% annual price increase.

But when you adjust for inflation and measure from the February 2022 peak, the story changes dramatically. Real home prices in Canada are now down roughly 29%. In nominal terms, they’re down 18%. Hamilton has taken the biggest hit—down about 40% after inflation—followed by the GTA and then Vancouver, which is sitting around a 20% real decline. On the flip side, Greater Moncton and Saskatoon are actually up roughly 19% nominal, or about 8% in real terms, since that same peak.

The widening gap between new listings and completed sales continues to point toward more downward pressure on prices ahead. And even though affordability has “improved” from the record-breaking lows of 2024, it remains completely out of reach for most Canadians. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home still eats up about 87% of the median household income — a figure that’s almost comically unsustainable.

So where does that leave us heading into the final stretch of 2025? Will collapsing affordability finally force the next rate cut — or will the Bank hold the line, freezing the market even further? We break it all down — from record-level mortgage exposure to the cities where prices have quietly crashed 40%.

This episode also marks a huge milestone — Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast. Since launching on June 22nd, 2020, the team has released a new episode every single Saturday without missing a week. Now with over 7,000 subscribers and 70,000+ monthly views, The Vancouver Life remains one of Canada’s most consistent and data-driven real estate channels.

To celebrate, we’re giving away our exclusive Home Seller’s Manual — the guide we use to help clients sell for top dollar. It includes prep strategies, curb-appeal tips, organization hacks, and a 100-point checklist showing which areas matter most. To get your copy make sure you watch the episode and comment TOP DOLLAR.

We also unpack Vancouver’s sweeping new rezoning — a city-initiated move affecting over 4,000 properties across the Broadway Plan and Cambie Corridor. Projects that meet the new criteria can skip rezoning entirely, shaving up to 12 months off approval times. It’s a bold step toward faster housing — but with costs high and demand soft, will developers take advantage?

Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — available now and join the discussion about where Canada’s housing market is heading next.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Toronto, often viewed as a leading indicator, has seen residential units under construction fall by 2.3% in just the last month and nearly 11% year-over-year. The most significant drop is in condo construction, which is down 16.4%, alongside a 17.1% decline in single-family homes. Meanwhile, purpose-built rentals have jumped 15.5% year-over-year. Vancouver and Calgary mirror this trend to varying degrees. Calgary, in particular, stands out with purpose-built rentals up nearly 55% year-over-year.

This shift signals a fundamental reorientation in Canada’s housing pipeline. Fewer condos and detached homes are on the horizon, while rental supply is set to expand significantly. The likely outcome is continued downward pressure on rental rates, declining returns for individual condo investors, and increased resale activity as holding becomes less attractive. At the same time, the construction of new single-family homes is virtually non-existent outside of legacy luxury pockets like Shaughnessy, West Vancouver, or Point Grey.

Compounding this trend, the future pipeline is showing further weakness. Building permits have fallen 2.4% year-over-year, and when adjusted for inflation, the value of those permits has dropped by nearly 8%, representing over $560 million in reduced residential development. Single-family home permits are down over 10%, and even the more resilient multifamily sector is beginning to slow. Since peaking in December 2024, multifamily permits have declined nearly 29%.

These trends suggest that despite aggressive government incentives to stimulate new housing, developers are losing confidence. Rising costs, softening demand, and bureaucratic friction are now overpowering policy carrots. This disconnect between government ambition and market risk tolerance is emerging as a critical obstacle to new supply.

Nowhere is this more visible than in Burnaby. As one of the first cities to aggressively implement British Columbia’s multiplex zoning legislation, Burnaby fast-tracked significant densification across formerly single-family zones. But as those projects break ground, residents are pushing back. From 4-storey laneway houses to high-density builds with zero parking, public backlash has prompted the city to reconsider.

Together, these data points paint a picture of a housing market that is not just cooling, but reshaping. The supply mix is being rewritten, urban policy is facing backlash, and economic signals are increasingly bifurcated between headline strength and structural weakness. For homeowners, investors, and policymakers alike, the next chapter in Canada’s housing story won’t just be about prices—it will be about purpose.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

BMO Capital Markets has drawn a striking parallel between today’s Canadian correction and the U.S. housing crash of 2007 — a comparison that has rattled even the most seasoned market watchers. Senior Economist Robert Kavcic doesn’t mince words: Canada’s housing bubble is now in the slow-motion phase of its deflation. Prices, he notes, have been falling for more than three years despite record population growth — a pattern eerily reminiscent of the U.S. trajectory nearly two decades ago.

The difference this time? Canada’s decline is unfolding more gradually, and that could make recovery slower, too. BMO’s data suggest it could take another five years before prices claw their way back to prior peaks, placing today’s correction somewhere between the U.S. Great Recession cycle and Ontario’s prolonged 1990s slump — a potential 12-year arc from top to trough and back again. The bank calls the last decade’s explosive price growth a “perfect storm” unlikely to repeat: cheap credit, pandemic migration, millennial peak demand, and speculative fervor all hitting at once. Those conditions, they argue, are gone for good.

Meanwhile, Canada’s rental market is flashing its own warning signs. Asking rents have fallen for a full year straight — down 3.2% nationally and more than 5% in B.C. and Alberta — with two-thirds of all purpose-built projects now dangling incentives just to fill units. Institutional landlords may weather the storm, but smaller investors are bailing out, adding even more supply to a fragile market. 

The slowdown is visible upstream, too. Architecture billings — a leading indicator of future construction — have fallen for 18 consecutive months across North America, the longest slide on record. In B.C., developers are pausing or cancelling projects, from downtown high-rises to suburban townhomes. The stalled Tsawwassen Town Centre redevelopment has become a case study in the friction between city councils, community character, local residents and development economics.

And yet, amid the austerity, Vancouver’s City Council just took an unprecedented step: approving a 0% property-tax increase for 2026. After years of back-to-back hikes totalling more than 30%, Mayor Ken Sim’s administration says the city will instead “find efficiencies” to ease the strain on families and small businesses. Supporters call it relief. Critics call it unsustainable. 

But not all the headlines are grim. In False Creek, a shimmering symbol of Vancouver’s high-end resilience emerged: the Tesoro Penthouse, a 5,000-square-foot full-floor residence with panoramic views, listed for $1,5,500,000  just sold for a record-breaking price — the most expensive sale ever recorded in the area. The transaction, closed by The Vancouver Life team, stands as a reminder that even in a cooling market, the city’s top tier still commands global attention.

From the deep freeze of development to the fragile thaw in rentals, this episode dissects what these parallel shifts mean for Canada’s broader housing future — and whether patience, not policy, will be the only real cure for a market learning how to land.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Policy is tightening, too. OSFI’s 2026 capital rules will stop investors from “re-using” the same rental income to qualify for multiple mortgages and will push more loans into income-producing buckets that carry higher capital charges. Combined-loan products will be treated as defaulted across the bundle if one piece fails. Translation: leverage gets harder for small investors just as institutions—REITs, pensions, private equity—face fewer practical constraints and can buy at scale. The likely result is a further professionalization of the rental market and a harder path to wealth-building via real estate for the middle class. At the same time, the long-standing premium of new-build over resale is wobbling. In the U.S., resale has flipped to price above new for the first time in decades—a signal of builder discounting, smaller product mixes, and the powerful “rate-lock” effect that traps owners in ultra-low mortgages and starves resale supply. Canada is different (shorter mortgage terms), but presale discounts and “more reasonable” launch pricing are appearing here, too.

Macro currents aren’t providing much lift. Housing starts fell 16.3% month-over-month to a 246k pace, with rentals (≈102k) almost matching all single-family plus condo starts—unsustainable without firmer demand and cheaper capital. BC’s single-family permits have collapsed to ~45-year lows, underscoring just how thin end-user appetite is at current price points. Households remain stretched: the debt-service ratio ticked up to 14.4%, near 15-year highs for interest costs, and yet arrears improved modestly and net worth rose with equity markets—an uneasy equilibrium that doesn’t restore confidence. On the ground, October stats still read “slow grind”: sales in Greater Vancouver hovered ~20% below the 10-year average, months of supply kept the market balanced, days-on-market rose for a sixth straight month, and the HPI slipped again—down ~4% from March’s high and back to early-2023 levels. Add it up and you get a market in reset: prices easing, presales anaemic, credit tighter for small landlords, and starts rolling over. In this episode, we unpack what that means for buyers eyeing value, sellers recalibrating expectations, and policymakers deciding whether to intervene—or let the reset run its course.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

At the same time, supply battles are intensifying. Century Group’s Tsawwassen redevelopment was slashed from 1,433 homes to just 600 after NIMBY pushback, despite meeting planning requirements. In Burnaby, petitions against densification threaten to stall family housing. This kind of resistance highlights how hard it will be for cities to meet ambitious housing targets.

Meanwhile, renters are gaining some leverage. Vancouver rents are falling, down 9.3% year-over-year to $2,825, and rental starts have surged to record highs. Landlords are offering concessions, a sharp reversal from the bidding wars of recent years.

Toronto, however, is flashing red. Power-of-sale listings — Ontario’s faster foreclosure alternative — have exploded 14-fold since 2021, now averaging 140 a month and hitting a record 1,200 active listings. Distressed sales are growing while resale volumes remain stuck near generational lows.

National home prices reveal a market split in two. The benchmark fell 20% from the 2022 peak to $686,800, but this correction is almost entirely in Ontario and B.C. Ontario prices are down 26%, B.C. 12% — yet eight of ten provinces hit new record highs this year, with Newfoundland leading.

Zooming in, Vancouver’s inventory has soared to 18,100 homes — the highest in 12 years — while the benchmark price fell for the fifth straight month. Toronto’s market is drowning in inventory, with prices down $312,000 from peak. Together, these metros are dragging national averages while the rest of Canada continues to climb.

This isn’t just a cooling cycle — it’s a structural reckoning. Population growth is slowing, supply is stalling under community resistance, rents are correcting, and distressed sales are rising. The fundamentals that fuelled Canada’s boom — immigration, cheap credit, and confidence — are eroding. The fight for affordability and stability is only just beginning.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada has shed 106,000 jobs in just two months, the steepest decline since 2009 outside of the pandemic years. The unemployment rate sits at 7.1%, though the reality is worse given the growing number of discouraged workers who are no longer counted in the labour force. GDP shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, far worse than expected (0.6%), and per capita GDP has not grown since 2016. Productivity has declined in 15 of the past 18 quarters, leaving Canada stuck while the United States continues to pull ahead. Against that backdrop, rate cuts were inevitable. They are not preemptive adjustments - rather it feels like recession management.

What holds the system together in moments like these is confidence. Confidence in the housing market, confidence in the stock market, confidence in government. Yet for many Canadians, that confidence has already been shaken. Housing prices have surged far faster than wages, eroding real purchasing power year after year. Families increasingly feel that elected officials have failed them, and the erosion of trust has become a slow leak. Rate cuts might offer a momentary reprieve for borrowers, but they cannot restore confidence on their own.

Vancouver, by contrast, is experiencing a rental paradox. Sales ticked up slightly in August, but remain nearly 60% below peak levels. The sales-to-new listings ratio has fallen below 40%, a threshold that historically precedes price declines. Inventory continues to rise, months of supply sit at their highest since 2012, and the price index slipped again last month. At the same time, rental construction is surging. Metro Vancouver will see a 17% increase in rental supply over the next two years, while Kelowna is on track for a staggering 33% increase. With population growth slowing, this supply wave will inevitably push vacancies higher, something Vancouver has not experienced in years. Renters will see relief in the short term, but single-family permits are at record lows, which points to severe shortages by the late 2020s and a return to undersupply by the 2030s for both asset classes.

The central bank cuts will ease borrowing costs slightly, and some buyers will return to the market. But rate cuts cannot create demand where none exists, nor can they resolve structural oversupply. In fact, by keeping weak projects alive longer, they may extend the correction rather than shorten it. What truly matters is confidence. 

Rate cuts feel like gifts, but they are really warning signals. They tell us that fragility is here, not ahead. The question is whether we treat this fragility as a chance to reset and rebuild trust, or whether we allow confidence to erode further. Because when confidence is restored—in our homes, in our markets, and in our leaders—the system doesn’t just hold. It thrives.

_________________________________

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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Ryan Dash PREC

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But while headline rents on newly listed apartments are retreating, the broader picture is more complicated. CMHC data shows that rents across the existing purpose-built rental stock in Vancouver continue to rise, up about 5.5% year over year, even as the vacancy rate nudged higher to 1.6%. That is the highest vacancy rate the region has seen in a decade, aside from the pandemic period, yet it is still well below what most economists would consider a balanced rental market. The discrepancy between falling asking rents and rising average stock rents highlights a fundamental dynamic: newcomers to the market may be finding more leverage, while existing tenants continue to see increases when they renew or adjust their leases.

Another major factor reshaping the market is supply. For years, Vancouver was criticized for under-building purpose-built rental housing. That has changed. Metro Vancouver added roughly 2,467 new rental units in 2024 alone, with the City of Vancouver accounting for more than 500 of them. In fact, Vancouver represented nearly half of the region’s new rental housing starts. Developers, facing more difficult financing conditions and slower condo absorption, are increasingly pivoting away from strata sales and delivering rental product instead. The result is a short-term bulge in completions that is giving renters more choice, while also forcing landlords of new projects to offer incentives like free months of rent or reduced parking fees to fill units.

The question, then, is where does this market go next? The outlook is nuanced. On one hand, more supply is coming, immigration is expected to moderate, and the labour market is showing signs of strain. All of these factors point toward softer rent growth and potentially more incentives in the short term, especially in smaller, premium units that already face price resistance. On the other hand, family-sized rentals remain undersupplied, and demand for two- and three-bedroom units remains resilient. 

In this episode, we sit down with Keaton Bessy, owner of GVTPM, to break down what’s really happening on the ground. We look at the contradictions in the data, the impact of new purpose-built supply, and the growing divide between small apartments and larger family homes. We also discuss the potential influence of interest rate cuts, the tactics landlords can use to stay competitive in a cooling market, and the kinds of concessions renters are now beginning to ask for.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Last year, more than 106,000 Canadians left the country — the largest exodus since the late 1960s. At the same time, Ontario and B.C., the twin engines of the national economy, have registered record-low population growth, a stark reversal for regions once defined by relentless inflows. This hollowing-out of the demographic base isn’t just a number; it’s the erosion of demand, the shrinking of ambition, and the quiet departure of the very people meant to sustain the future.

The labour market tells a similar story of unraveling. Toronto’s unemployment rate has breached 9% for the first time in 15 years. Construction jobs — the bedrock of Canada’s housing-dependent economy — are vanishing by the tens of thousands. The irony is suffocating: even as cranes dot skylines, the hands that once built Canada’s growth are being sidelined. EI claims are surging, unemployment benefits ballooning, and yet the only jobs being created are in government. 

Housing — once Canada’s great safety blanket — now exposes the fragility. Toronto just suffered its worst July for new home sales in more than 40 years. Inventory has ballooned to nearly 60 months’ supply. Sales volumes are lower than at any point in modern history, plunging beneath the brutal downturns of the 1990s. And in a historical first, more Canadians are signing leases than purchase agreements. Renting has become not just an economic choice, but an existential one: a sign that ownership, the foundation of middle-class identity, has slipped out of reach.

Vancouver, long sheltered by its global allure, is not immune. September numbers reveal prices sliding for a fifth straight month, down to levels last seen in early 2023. Detached homes, once the city’s crown jewel, are now weighed down by foreclosures, while days on market stretch longer with each passing month. Inventory sits well above the 10-year average, foreshadowing further declines.

Meanwhile, the broader economy has hit an iceberg. GDP shrank in the second quarter, with exports collapsing nearly 8% and business investment plummeting. Machinery spending, non-residential construction, the very lifeblood of productivity, is bleeding out. What keeps the economy afloat? Government spending and consumer credit. Households dip into savings to buy cars, Ottawa borrows to mask deficits, and capital flees anything resembling long-term growth. The illusion of stability is preserved only through debt.

The housing correction now unfolding is one of the sharpest on record. Real home prices are down 24% since 2022 — faster than the infamous crashes of the ’80s and ’90s. Affordability remains shattered, even as values fall, because incomes refuse to keep pace. What once felt like a bubble slowly deflating is beginning to look like a collapse.

The story of 2025 is not just about numbers on a chart. It is about a country forced to reckon with its limits, its illusions, and its future. And the question hanging over it all: is Canada prepared for what comes after the myth of endless growth?

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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Ryan Dash PREC

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ryan@thevancouverlife.com

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Mychal offers his perspective on where fixed and variable mortgage rates are likely to trend in the coming months. With the Bank of Canada holding steady since June, and speculation mounting that further easing may be required to stimulate growth, the conversation tackles whether locking in a fixed rate still makes sense—or if a variable product may offer more flexibility in an uncertain environment. We also explore the big picture: affordability. While home prices across Canada remain, on average, about $150,000 lower than their 2022 peak, affordability is still the No. 1 barrier for many would-be buyers. Mychal shares how clients are navigating tighter budgets and what strategies lenders are using to help people make the numbers work.

We revisit one of the most stressful chapters in recent mortgage history: trigger rates and payment shocks. Last year, homeowners feared widespread defaults as record-low pandemic mortgages reset into a much higher-rate world. Mychal walks us through what actually happened, how most borrowers weathered the storm, and what he’s seeing now as a massive 60% of all mortgages are set to renew in 2025–2026. With billions in household debt up for repricing, the stakes are enormous—and the way Canadians respond could define the housing market for the rest of the decade.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Mychal also gives us an inside look at new mortgage originations heading into fall. Are buyers cautiously stepping back into the market, hoping to snag a deal? Are refinances stabilizing? Or is the wait-and-see mentality still dominating? His insights cut through the noise and provide actionable guidance for both buyers debating their next move and homeowners staring down a renewal.

Finally, we look ahead: will there even be a fall market in 2025? Activity has been muted through much of the year, but history shows Canadians can’t stay on the sidelines forever. Whether it’s pent-up demand, lower rates, or simply buyers adjusting to the “new normal,” this season could surprise us.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about where rates, affordability, and market activity are heading.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Starting with national home sales, July marked the fourth straight month of gains, with sales rising 3.8% month-over-month and a cumulative 11.2% increase since March. The GTA led the rebound, surging 35.5% from spring lows. Year-over-year, sales rose 6.6%. However, new listings and inventory remained virtually flat, with total active listings up 10.1% from last year. Despite these gains, sales volumes remain historically low. Benchmark prices are still down 3.4% compared to last year, though average prices are up a modest 0.6%, painting a picture of a market in limbo — balanced, but directionless.

On the rental front, data from Rentals.ca and Urbannation shows a surprising national decline of 3.7% in average rents, bringing the Canadian average to $2,121/month. Vancouver saw a notable 9% drop year-over-year, with tenants now spending 37.5% of their income on rent — well above the 30% affordability threshold. One-bedroom units in North Vancouver now average $2,630, the highest in the country. However, the GTA presents a dramatically different picture. A report shows that Toronto is on track for a 235,000-unit rental deficit over the next decade, driven by a collapse in condo presales and a 50% drop in housing starts. 

Meanwhile, a new long-term forecast from Concordia University suggests that Vancouver detached home prices, currently averaging $2.4 million, could reach $3 million by 2032. Even if housing completions double — a goal many doubt is achievable — prices are still projected to rise to $2.8 million. On paper, this equates to a manageable 3.2% annual increase, yet it underscores the structural imbalance in supply and demand that continues to define Vancouver’s market.

One of the most thought-provoking topics in this episode is the renewed conversation around Canada’s foreign buyer ban. Developers are lobbying to lift the ban for pre-construction units to revive sales, but public sentiment remains firmly opposed. 

Yet few acknowledge the irony: Canadians are the second-largest group of foreign buyers in the U.S., purchasing $6.2 billion worth of real estate in the past year. While countries like New Zealand and Switzerland restrict foreign ownership, Canadians remain free to buy abroad without similar restrictions. The U.S. has not imposed any such ban — and Canadians continue to snap up property there, especially in Florida.

Ultimately, this episode doesn’t offer a clean conclusion because the data doesn’t either. Sales are up, but from record lows. Prices are down, but future projections remain more bullish. Rents are falling in the West but threaten to explode in the GTA in the years to come. 

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

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ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver home prices have slipped to their lowest level in over two years. Toronto prices? Wiped back to 2020 levels — erasing nearly all the gains from the pandemic boom. Inventory is piling up, sales are stagnant, and in some cases, sellers are watching hundreds of thousands in value disappear.

Meanwhile, the rental market — long thought to be untouchable — is cracking. Landlords are offering months of free rent to lure tenants, vacancy rates are climbing, and incentive-adjusted rents are falling fast. Investors are quietly exiting, major developers are hitting pause, and Canada’s construction pipeline is suddenly at risk.

It’s not just housing feeling the pinch. Job vacancies have plunged to an 8-year low, the labour market is weakening at a worrying pace, and more Canadians are putting off retirement entirely — not by choice, but because the rising cost of living has left them with little or nothing to save. The “Bank of Mom & Dad” is under strain, debt is rising among older Canadians, and an entire generation is staring down the possibility of working well into their 70s.

In this episode, we break down:

• The August 2025 Vancouver housing stats — including the first-ever July sales increase over June in history.
• Why Toronto’s home prices are in full reversal mode.
• How the rental market is shifting — and why that could mean less housing built in the years ahead.
• The growing economic pressures that are reshaping how Canadians live, work, and retire.
• The rise in foreclosures and what it signals for the months ahead.

This isn’t just another market update — it’s a snapshot of a housing and economic system under pressure from all sides. Whether you’re a homeowner, renter, investor, or simply trying to understand where Canada’s economy is headed, this is an episode you can’t afford to miss.

Watch to the end, then let us know in the comments: Do you think this is the start of a slow decline — or a sharper correction waiting to happen?

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week’s episode of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast takes a hard look at how Canada’s exploding tax burden, runaway deficits, and fleeing capital are colliding with the nation’s housing market. We connect the dots between Ottawa’s unchecked spending, falling investor confidence, and a real estate sector stuck in a high-stakes slowdown.

Let’s start with the core issue: Taxes. The average Canadian household earning $114,000 now pays over $48,000 in taxes — that’s 42% of gross income, up 181% since 1961 after inflation. And yet, despite this massive government take, Canada is operating without a federal budget, projecting a $92 billion deficit — possibly rising to $147 billion — one of the largest in Canadian history outside of COVID spending.

The result? Investors are running. A staggering $83.8 billion in capital has fled Canada since February, 90% of it heading to the U.S. It’s the largest recorded outflow in recent memory and a clear vote of no confidence in Canada’s fiscal policies. Canadians themselves are turning to U.S. markets, pouring $14.2 billion into U.S. stocks in May alone, more than 4x last year’s volume.

Real estate is taking a direct hit. In Toronto, the new condo market is oversaturated. Urbanation forecasts over 31,000 completions in 2025 — 74% higher than the long-term average. With 64,000+ units under construction, we’re building faster than we’re buying. The result? Rising inventory, few new launches, and a ticking time bomb for pricing — especially if rates remain elevated.

In Vancouver, the BC government has stepped in with “relief” for developers by backstopping $250 million in DCC feesto keep projects alive. But make no mistake — this isn’t a discount. It’s a taxpayer-funded subsidy. You are footing the bill, even as housing remains out of reach for many.

Rents are shifting, too. Vancouver’s 1-bedroom unfurnished rents rose $9 to $2,232/month, though still lower than last year. West Van remains highest at $2,617. But in Burnaby, rents are falling fast, down 7.6% year-over-year, with some neighbourhoods like Central Burnaby dropping over 16%.

Why hasn’t the market crashed yet? Equity. The average Canadian homeowner has 74% equity in their home — that’s $511K on a $691K home. In Vancouver, the average homeowner sits on $868K in equity. That’s why we’re not seeing widespread foreclosures or a true collapse. Homeowners still have leverage — for now. Mortgage dynamics are changing. Since 2022, mortgage debt is increasing for Canadians 55+ while decreasing among those under 35. Why? Older Canadians are taking on debt to help their children — or to cover rising living costs. The “Bank of Mom & Dad” is becoming the central lender of last resort.

Real estate sentiment is weak. After a short-lived spring rebound, confidence is flatlining, echoing what we’re seeing in sales volumes. Buyers are hesitant, sellers are holding back, and uncertainty is the only constant.

Where are rates headed? With inflation lingering and capital fleeing, don’t expect the Bank of Canada to cut anytime soon. Fixed mortgage rates remain in the mid 4% range, while the U.S. holds firm at nearly 7%. The result? A stagnant, supply-heavy, high-cost housing market — with no easy way out.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

So, the obvious question is: Why?

Why have home prices remained so stable—especially when consumer sentiment is low, lending standards are tighter than ever, and the economic outlook feels bleak? The answer lies in a series of critical financial indicators that reveal the underlying resilience of the Canadian housing market.

Let’s start with household net worth, which reached a record $17.7 trillion in Q1 2025, up 0.8% in the quarter and a staggering 82% over the last decade. Debt-to-disposable income has improved to 172%—a 10-year low—and the debt servicing ratio is down from last year’s peak. Most significantly, Canada’s asset-to-debt ratio now stands at $6.68 to $1, near all-time highs. This means Canadians, on average, hold six times more assets than they owe in debt.

This growing wealth has profound implications. Over 50% of Vancouver homes are mortgage-free. And when sellers don't get their desired price, they’re increasingly choosing to delist rather than drop their asking price. In May, delistings jumped 47% year-over-year. This is not a market where sellers are forced to capitulate—many are simply choosing to wait.

That said, this resilience doesn’t reflect the experience of younger Canadians. Homeownership remains elusive, and as Boomers eventually look to sell, there’s real concern about whether younger buyers will have the purchasing power to step in—unless wealth starts being more evenly distributed.

Even insolvency data suggests a market in transition. While consumer insolvencies fell 2.6% in May, they’re still 7.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Business insolvencies are down 13.3% year-over-year, indicating stabilization, but we’re far from robust economic health.

And a deeper divide is growing. The Bank of Canada’s latest vulnerability report shows the highest share of delinquent borrowers in a decade—now at 2.6%. People are skipping payments on retail installment loans, credit cards, and car loans before defaulting on their mortgage or HELOC. This reflects rising stress among middle-income Canadians, the group that drives the broader economy—and that stress is slowing GDP and pushing unemployment higher.

Meanwhile, developers are facing their own struggles. But a recent win: the BC government now allows 75% of development fees to be deferred until occupancy, easing the upfront financial burden. In Burnaby, for example, that could mean deferring up to $375,000 on a sixplex—money that can be used to fund construction instead.

This episode breaks it all down: the financial landscape, the market psychology, the policy shifts, and what it all means for buyers, sellers, renters, and developers. Whether you’re navigating the market today or preparing for what’s next—this is a must-watch.

Subscribe for more Vancouver real estate insights, and don’t forget to check the links in the description for how to connect with us directly!

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Interestingly, Canadian affordability is now at the same level it was in 1990—just before a decade-long improvement in affordability followed. Whether or not that trend repeats remains to be seen. RBC’s latest forecast doesn’t think so. They project affordability will bottom later this year around 52%, then begin worsening again in 2026.

On the inflation front, May CPI came in at 1.7%, unchanged from April. This marks the 18th consecutive month within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target range. Core inflation registered at 2.9%, the upper end of the band but still acceptable. Mortgage interest costs remain a key driver, adding 0.4% to the CPI. It’s important to note that most other countries exclude mortgage interest from their inflation basket. Without it, Canada’s inflation would have been closer to 1.3%. Rented accommodations contributed 0.3%, but StatsCan’s data appears to lag. While they report rents up 4.3% annually, Rentals.ca shows a 3.3% decline in the last year. 

Turning to interest rate expectations: markets are only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut at the July 30th Bank of Canada meeting. And as of now, there is just one more rate cut expected for the remainder of 2025. That outlook has cooled considerably, given earlier projections of more aggressive easing.

Now to the July 2025 housing stats. Total home sales in Greater Vancouver hit 2,186 units in June, down 9.5% from last year and a staggering 26% below the 10-year average. It was the second slowest June on record—worse than the Global Financial Crisis and COVID shutdowns. This follows what was already the slowest May on record. The spring market never materialized, and current indicators suggest a muted summer and fall ahead.

New listings reached 6,301 in June, up 10% year-over-year but down 5% from May. Inventory sits at 16,852 active listings, down 1% month-over-month but still 19% higher than a year ago and 44% above the 10-year average. At the time of reporting, inventory has climbed to over 18,200 active listings. The Sales-to-Active-Listings ratio remains at 13%—signaling a balanced market—for the 13th straight month. Detached homes are at 10%, townhomes at 17%, and condos at 14%.

Prices continue to slide. The Home Price Index (HPI) dropped for the third straight month in 2025, down 0.3% month-over-month to $1,173,100. That puts prices 2.8% lower than one year ago. The median price stayed flat at $985,000, but remains up $70,000 year-to-date. The average price rose $9,000 to $1,275,000, its highest point in 2025, and up $68,000 YTD.

The Vancouver housing market remains stable but sluggish and perhaps increasingly so. Affordability is slowly improving but remains historically poor

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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But the surge didn’t last.

Since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates in 2022, the Fraser Valley has undergone a rapid reversal. With interest rates now hovering around 5%, the market has softened dramatically, and prices are down approximately 25% from peak levels. In this episode, we’re joined by Fraser Valley real estate advisor Conor Kelly, who walks us through the highs, lows, and what’s next for this once red-hot market. From forced sales and shrinking equity to renewed commuting realities and a cooling demand, we explore how some homeowners are being pushed to sell at a loss and leave the Valley altogether.

We begin by setting the stage with a look at the Fraser Valley before the pandemic. What was this market like pre-2020? And how did it shift so aggressively once the pandemic hit? Conor shares his on-the-ground insights into the feeding frenzy that took hold between 2020 and 2022, as well as how quickly sentiment shifted when interest rates started climbing.

Next, we bring things to the present. The Greater Vancouver market is facing high inventory, slowing sales, and flat-to-declining prices — but is the Fraser Valley operating on a similar trajectory, or is it behaving independently? Conor compares the two markets and helps us understand how local dynamics, migration trends, and economic pressures are shaping today’s Valley.

We also explore an issue that’s starting to impact the entire province — population decline. For the first time outside of pandemic anomalies, BC recorded a population contraction. And while Vancouver grabs the headlines, Conor breaks down how this trend is unfolding in the Valley and what it could mean for long-term demand.

Then we turn to the pre-sale market, a sector facing serious challenges in Vancouver and Toronto, where developer bankruptcies and collapsing buyer confidence are freezing future supply. How is the pre-construction market faring in the Valley? Are developers hitting pause, or is there opportunity for those with longer timelines?

Finally, we look ahead. What does Conor think is in store for the Fraser Valley over the next few years? Will prices rebound? Will affordability improve? And what should buyers or potential movers know before deciding to make the Valley their home?

Whether you’re a buyer, seller, investor, or just curious about where BC’s real estate market is headed, this episode offers critical insights into one of the most volatile and revealing markets in the country. Don’t miss this one — hit play to hear what’s really going on in the Fraser Valley.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Ontario and British Columbia—two provinces that have long driven real estate demand—actually saw population declines in Q1 2025, with Ontario contracting by 5,700 people and B.C. by 2,400. That’s virtually uncharted territory for regions that typically lead the country in net migration and property price acceleration. The federal government’s 2024 decision to scale back immigration targets—both temporary and permanent—has now triggered six consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Meanwhile, non-permanent resident totals dropped by over 61,000, even as deaths outpaced births by more than 5,600. What we’re witnessing is a foundational demographic shift—one that’s sending ripples through every corner of the housing market.

This episode of The Vancouver Life Podcast dives deep into what this demographic reversal means for real estate prices, rental demand, construction starts, and investor sentiment. With record-breaking levels of purpose-built rentals under construction and fewer people arriving to occupy them, we expect continued downward pressure on rental rates. In fact, Metro Vancouver rents have dropped $114 over the past year, including $52 in the last month alone, bringing average monthly rent to $2,223. Even furnished units now offer only marginal premiums, making furniture investments for landlords a poor ROI.

As demand slows, so do housing prices. Canada’s national benchmark price fell for the sixth consecutive month in May, landing at $690,900—the same level we saw in May 2021 and nearly 18% below the 2022 peak. Inventory is rising, with more than 200,000 listings on the market nationwide, yet buyer sentiment remains fragile. Though sales inched up in May, they are still down over 4% year-over-year. And the only provinces seeing real price gains are smaller markets like Manitoba and Newfoundland—while the heavyweights of B.C. and Ontario drag the national average down.

Housing starts are falling too. In B.C., starts dropped 29% from April to May alone. Multi-family builds fell even harder—down 33% month-over-month and 19% compared to last year. The six-month moving average for starts has dropped 30% since its peak in 2023, and that trend is expected to continue. Cities like Nanaimo and Kelowna have seen construction plummet by as much as 75% and 45%, respectively. The result? The pipeline of new housing is drying up—just as rental supply is peaking and demand is waning. 

_________________________________ 

Dan’s New Channel:  www.youtube.com/@VancouversTopRealtor 

Ryan’s New Channel: www.youtube.com/@ryan_thevancouverlife 

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

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ryan@thevancouverlife.com

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We also explore the Bank of Canada's recent messaging, where the odds of a rate cut in July have fallen to just 25%, with markets now pricing in only one more cut for the rest of 2025. That would leave mortgage rates not far from where they are today, providing little relief for buyers. Meanwhile, the condo pre-sale market is collapsing, especially in Toronto, where there is now over 58 months of inventory—meaning it could take until 2030 to absorb what’s already built. As sales disappear, so too do new condo starts, and building permits in April dropped by 14.6% year-over-year, led by a 20.5% decline in multi-family construction, with Vancouver alone accounting for nearly $1 billion of the pullback.

On the employment front, Canada’s job market is flashing warning signs. The national unemployment rate rose to 7% in May, the highest in nearly a decade outside of the pandemic. Ontario hit 7.9% and Toronto 9%, with youth unemployment hitting a staggering 20.1%—the worst since the 1990s. As hiring stalls and cost pressures mount, many students and recent grads are being locked out of the workforce entirely, casting a long shadow over household formation and future housing demand. This is a leading indicator of broader economic weakness and a key reason why the housing market could be facing deeper structural problems ahead.

Finally, while average rents in Canada have now fallen for eight consecutive months year-over-year, they remain 12.6% higher than just three years ago. That’s a partial win for tenants, but another blow to investors who are already grappling with declining condo values and stagnant prices. Sales volumes are flat month-over-month and prices remain stable, but beneath the surface, Canada’s housing fundamentals are shifting fast.

This episode connects the dots between affordability, generational inequality, interest rates, and a rapidly softening condo sector. If you're a buyer, seller, investor, or simply trying to understand where Canadian real estate is headed next—this is the update you can’t afford to miss.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In the resale market, the GTA is facing a flood of new listings, with active inventory reaching 30,964 in May—a 41.5% jump year-over-year and levels not seen since the 1995 housing downturn that led to decades of price stagnation. New listings surged 14% compared to May 2024, totaling 21,819—the second-busiest May on record. However, with sales unable to keep pace, the sales-to-new-listings ratio plummeted to just 28%, firmly in buyers’ territory, where prices typically face downward pressure. Interestingly, despite the surge in inventory, prices in Toronto edged up 0.3% month-over-month to $1,012,800, though they remain 4.5% below last year’s levels. Whether this is a sign of a bottom or just a temporary pause in the broader correction remains to be seen.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting, despite core inflation still hovering above 3% on a three-month annualized basis. This decision reflects concerns about slower growth and sticky inflation, which have been exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs that threaten to prolong a period of stagflation—where growth slows but prices continue to rise. The high cost of borrowing continues to weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability, contributing to the ongoing collapse in sales.

In Vancouver, the market is grappling with both a surge in listings and persistently low sales. New listings in May reached 6,640, 4% higher than May 2024 and 9% above the 10-year average, though slightly down from April 2025’s peak. Despite this influx of supply, active inventory soared to 16,535—up 26% from a year ago and a massive 46% above the 10-year average—marking an 11-year high for the month. This has given buyers their most extensive selection since July 2014, yet sales volumes remain extremely low, highlighting a deep disconnect between supply and demand. 

The sales-to-active ratio sits at a meager 14%, indicating a market leaning towards buyers’ territory. While the composite Home Price Index (HPI) dipped $7,000 (0.6%) month-over-month to $1,177,100, the median price surprisingly rose for the fourth consecutive month to $985,000, the highest reading this year—suggesting that while high-priced homes might still be selling, the overall market remains fragile. Sellers, especially those receiving offers, need to treat them seriously in this climate, as buyer hesitancy is at a peak.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

The federal government has announced a GST rebate for first-time home buyers purchasing new homes valued up to $1.5 million. Homes under $1 million will be eligible for a full GST rebate—as much as $50,000—while homes between $1 million and $1.5 million receive a partial rebate. The government claims this will help reduce upfront costs for young Canadians and spur new housing construction. But when you consider that only 10–20% of Canada’s roughly 300,000 annual first-time buyers purchase new homes, this measure will actually benefit just 30,000 to 60,000 people nationwide. A step in the right direction? Yes. A scalable solution to affordability? Probably not.

And while tax relief is welcome, the bigger issue continues to loom: the soaring cost of construction. Since 2017, Canada’s Building Construction Price Index has jumped 90%, nearly doubling costs in just eight years—largely driven by pandemic-era supply chain shocks and inflation. This means even with incentives, developers are unlikely to hit federal housing targets, and pre-sale markets will remain fragile as margins thin and feasibility erodes.

We also take a deep dive into Canada’s residential mortgage debt, which now totals over $2.42 trillion—including $2.07 trillion in mortgages and $350 billion in HELOCs. That’s nearly $370,000 in average mortgage debt across the 6.5 million homes with outstanding loans. With an average amortization of 20 years and today’s fixed rates around 4.14%, the average monthly mortgage payment comes in at $2,256. That’s barely more than Canada’s average rent of $2,109, showing how thin the line between renting and owning has become for many households.

Meanwhile in the U.S., delinquency rates on car loans have hit record highs—over 6.5% of borrowers are now more than 60 days behind. It’s a stark indicator of mounting financial stress, and one that could spill over into the broader economy, potentially triggering interest rate cuts and even recessionary pressure stateside. A U.S. slowdown almost always influences Canada, especially when it comes to monetary policy.

We also zoom out and look at G7 home price trends, and the results are jaw-dropping. Since 1985, Canada leads the G7 in inflation-adjusted home price appreciation—up 360%. That’s even after an 18% national correction from peak pricing. For comparison, the UK is up 340%, the U.S. 220%, while Japan’s prices have actually fallen 30%. The data paints a picture of just how extreme Canada’s housing market has become over time—and how hard it may be to “normalize.”

And finally, we preview next week’s Bank of Canada interest rate decision. As of May 26th, odds are now sitting at 70% that there will be no cut, despite growing calls for relief. With inflation data holding steady and economic signals mixed, the BoC remains cautious.

In our mini market update: Vancouver has just crossed 18,000 active listings—the most in 12 years—while May sales are on track to be the lowest ever recorded for the month, even as prices spike. Median prices are now within 1% of all-time highs, and average prices are up over $50,000 in just 30 days. It’s a paradoxical moment: high supply, low sales, rising prices. Welcome to 2025.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

The 'Dan Plan' includes removing development cost charges and developer profit margins by having government step in as the builder, offering 0% interest construction loans, and fast-tracking approvals. For buyers, it proposes radical affordability measures: zero down payment, no GST, no property transfer tax, and even no annual property tax for qualifying homes. These changes, if implemented, would reduce the barrier to homeownership by a huge amount—immediately. This isn’t about building a few thousand affordable rentals years from now. This is about creating affordable homes people can own and build wealth with today. And while the plan isn’t perfect, it’s meant to start a conversation—and we want you to be part of it. Share your ideas in the comments, and we’ll refine and present the best of them to government officials.

In addition to the affordability push, we highlight a rare real estate opportunity happening right now in Surrey. The Belvedere, a just-completed concrete high-rise, is offering homes at 25% below their original list price. Despite showing “sold out” online, approximately 70 units are being released under this promotion, with prices starting at $721 per square foot. Appraisals are reportedly coming in $90,000 higher than the discounted prices, making this one of the most compelling condo deals in the Lower Mainland. Financing is expected to be smoother with these valuations, and we anticipate a swift sell-out. To learn more or get access, visit condoday.ca or reach out to us directly.

We also unpack a massive week in Canadian real estate data. Housing starts jumped 30% in April to 279,000 annualized units—the strongest print since June 2023—but nearly all of that growth came from purpose-built rentals. Condo and single-family home starts, by contrast, have fallen to decade lows. This unusual dynamic points to a likely plateau in rent prices and suggests that condo values may face future headwinds due to increased supply and moderating rents.

Whether you’re passionate about housing affordability, curious about the current market landscape, or just looking for a rare real estate deal, this episode delivers insight and opportunity. And if you believe Canadians deserve affordable homes they can own, now is the time to raise your voice. Drop your ideas in the comments—we’re listening, compiling, and taking action.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this week’s episode, we dive into the May market update for Vancouver, examining why—after four consecutive years of declining home sales—we may be approaching a cyclical turning point. Vancouver just posted its lowest April sales figures since 2019, and for context, this is now the longest recorded slowdown in the GVRD since 2005. But what’s fascinating is that some early signs of life are emerging in other major Canadian markets—especially Toronto. TRREB reported a modest 1.8% increase in sales in April, breaking a brutal two-month, 27% drop. Is this a blip, or the beginning of the stabilization phase?

We break down affordability and consumer confidence, two key drivers of real estate cycles. With mortgage payments on a typical home now at $2,600—the lowest since May 2022—affordability is quietly improving. And with consumer sentiment indexes showing their first significant jump in over a year, buyer psychology could be shifting. Should the Bank of Canada cut rates in June, as markets are pricing in, it could bring payments back to 2022 levels—when sales volumes were 52% higher.

We then turn to Toronto, where the situation is more extreme. GTA sales remain 21% lower year-over-year, with condo sales down a staggering 30%—the lowest sales figures seen in 25 years (excluding COVID lockdowns). Inventory is ballooning, up 51% overall and 83% for condos in the 416. And prices across all asset types have dropped: condos are down 6.8%, detached homes 5.4%. Meanwhile, the rental market is under pressure too. With 16,000 rental listings, GTA rental inventory is at an all-time high. Rents are now 13% below peak levels, and investor demand has fallen off a cliff. But with prices and rates declining faster than rents, even cash flow metrics are beginning to improve—though we’re still far from equilibrium.

We then circle back to Vancouver. Despite the sales slowdown, condos have shown surprising resilience—both in sales and price. Condo transactions are down just 56% from peak levels (compared to 71% for detached homes) and prices have only slipped 2% from their highs,  outperforming detached and townhouse segments. In fact, when looking at the broader GVRD—excluding downtown Vancouver—condo prices have barely moved.

New listings in Vancouver came in slightly below 2024 levels but remain steady, and inventory continues to climb, reaching an 11-year high for April. With buyers still largely on the sidelines, the sales-to-active ratio has held in balanced market territory for 12 straight months—14% overall. The days-on-market average ticked up to 16, and foreclosure activity rose slightly but remains a minor share of total listings.

Finally, we close with price movement: The Home Price Index fell by 0.5% this month, the first drop of the year, bringing the average Vancouver home price to $1.184M. The average price dropped by $20,000, and prices are now 1.8% lower than they were a year ago.

Whether we’ve hit the bottom or are simply sliding along it remains to be seen—but the data suggests that a turning point could be on the horizon. Be sure to tune in for our full analysis, charts, and predictions—so you’re prepared for what’s next in this shifting market.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

First, we examine the all-powerful & predominant force of interest rates. The Bank of Canada held steady in April, but with two more rate cuts expected in June and September, we could see the overnight rate drop to 2.25% by year-end. Variable-rate holders may feel relief by the fall, while fixed rates have remained mostly unchanged—making the 3.99% offers available now historically attractive, even if there’s potential for further dips.

But rates don’t act alone. Sentiment plays a massive role. Despite consumer confidence hitting all-time lows, April brought a slight rebound—too soon to call it a trend. However, business sentiment continues to deteriorate, dragging down the Real Estate Outlook Index at its fastest pace since the 2022 rate shock. Sales volumes remain sluggish, and we don’t expect a sharp bounce anytime soon.

Real estate moves in cycles, and Vancouver’s decades-long climb may be entering a slower phase. We revisit Toronto’s 1989 peak, when prices fell 27% over seven years and took 22 years to recover in inflation-adjusted dollars. Could Vancouver follow a similar path after peaking in 2022? If so, prices may not reach those highs again until 2028 or later. Buying today means thinking long-term—and accepting that appreciation might not arrive on your timeline.

Meanwhile, first-time buyers are getting older. In Canada, the average is now 33—up from 32 in the early '80s—while in Ontario it’s hit 40. Surprisingly, Americans, with cheaper homes but more student debt, wait even longer (age 38 on average). What’s driving Canadians to buy sooner? 

But supply is failing to keep up. March housing starts missed expectations by 14%, and condo construction is in freefall—down 45% from last year. Remove purpose-built rentals, and we’re at 15-year lows. Ontario and BC, the provinces with the greatest need, are down 38% and 30% year-over-year. CMHC says we need 3.1 million more homes by 2030. At this rate, that’s a pipe dream.

On top of that, inventory levels are rising, especially in the pre-sale market. Vancouver could hit 3,500 unsold new condos by year-end—a 60% surge. With investor demand almost vanished (down from 50%, then 25% and now 7%!), developers are cancelling projects, and hundreds of homes won’t break ground. Even with record immigration—Toronto just became North America’s fastest-growing city—new supply is evaporating.

We close with a mini-market update: May sales in Vancouver are trending at a six-year low (outside of COVID lockdowns), while inventory is at an 11-year high. Median prices are up slightly, but average prices are slipping. Could this be the inflection point?

So… is now the right time to buy? That depends on your goals, your timeline, and your outlook. This episode delivers the data, trends, and insights to help you decide—with eyes wide open.

Are you prepared to buy with the long-term in mind, even if prices don’t rise during your ownership? Let's chat about it.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this episode, we sit down with Gary to uncover the nuanced and often unseen world of urban planning in Canada why it seemingly takes an inordinate amount of time to build anything. With over 800 projects successfully guided through all stages of the development process in more than 25 Canadian municipalities, the Pooni Group has become the gold standard in bridging the gap between municipal regulations and private development. 

Gary shares how his team helps developers navigate the red tape of rezoning, permitting, and compliance — particularly in markets like Vancouver, where the approval process for major projects can take years and often results in a stifled housing supply and elevated prices.

We ask Gary to shed light on why this process takes so long, what the biggest systemic bottlenecks are, and what practical solutions might look like. From there, we zoom out to a national lens, exploring the broader challenges that slow the pace of housing construction across Canada — and what must change if we’re serious about addressing affordability and supply.

But this conversation goes far beyond bureaucracy. We explore the future of Canadian cities and what urbanization might look like by 2050. Gary shares his bold predictions about how technology — particularly AI and robotics — will shape the way we design and build communities. He also discusses how the post-pandemic landscape has fundamentally shifted the office and retail sectors, and how the concept of “experience” is becoming the cornerstone of these spaces.

We also dive into demographic shifts — with millennials and downsizing boomers now dictating what types of homes are being built, what features matter most, and how planners need to adapt their strategies to meet evolving lifestyles and expectations.

Finally, Gary introduces his brand-new development course — a must for anyone looking to understand the ins and outs of real estate development in Canada. Whether you're a new developer, a seasoned investor, or a curious policy enthusiast, this course promises to deliver practical knowledge from one of the most experienced professionals in the field.

This episode is a masterclass in how real estate development really works in Canada — from behind-the-scenes negotiations to the visionary thinking needed to build the cities of tomorrow. Don’t miss it.

Join The Course Here:
https://laidleracademy.com/pooni-new-era-course

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📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

We begin with the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision: after seven cuts in the last 12 months, the BoC held steady at 2.75%, citing uncertainty caused by the ongoing U.S. tariff war. 

Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that monetary policy can’t fix trade disputes but must focus on maintaining price stability. Although unemployment is rising and growth is slowing, the threat of inflation led the Bank to pause further cuts. At the same time, bond yields are surging, which could soon push mortgage rates higher, adding yet another affordability challenge for buyers.

Inflation data offered a brief reprieve, coming in at 2.3% for March—cooler than expected—thanks largely to lower gas prices. Shelter costs remain high but are decelerating, and rents continue to trend downward. 

National home sales, however, paint a more sobering picture. Volumes fell 5% month-over-month and 9% year-over-year, making this past March the slowest on record since 2009. Despite that, prices have only dipped modestly—just 2.1% year-over-year by HPI, and 3.7% by average price—suggesting the market remains surprisingly resilient even as sentiment erodes.

But it’s the housing start data that really underlines the problem: Canada posted the lowest monthly housing starts in six years, and it’s getting worse. Toronto’s pre-sale condo market has all but collapsed. Sales are 88% below the 10-year average, and unsold inventory now sits at a staggering 78 months of supply! That's 6 years! 

Developers are pulling out, projects are being cancelled or converted to rentals, and there’s zero profit margin left in many builds. As construction slows, a severe future housing shortage feels inevitable as the roller coaster continues.

Finally, we break down the election housing platforms of both the Liberal and Conservative parties. The Liberals plan to double annual home construction to 500,000, reintroduce tax incentives for rental construction, and create a new government housing agency—yet offer little in the way of realistic execution given Canada hasn’t built more than 270,000 homes in a single year in over four decades. 

Meanwhile, the Conservatives propose slashing GST on new homes up to $1.3M, punishing cities that fail to meet housing targets, and offering financial rewards to those that exceed them. They aim to unleash supply by freeing up federal land and cutting red tape, though critics argue their platform lacks implementation details.

If housing affordability matters to you—and it should—then this episode is essential listening. We examine not only the data but the direction each political party is trying to take Canada. With construction grinding to a halt, affordability still out of reach for most, and developers hitting pause across the country, the decisions we make now will define the housing market for the next generation. 

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Business confidence is in the same horrific state, and these weren’t even recorded after Trump’s tariffs took effect. With those now in place, pressure is mounting on the Bank of Canada as it faces a nightmarish economic puzzle: GDP is rising, inflation is expected to heat back up, the housing market is crumbling, and record levels of debt are coming due for renewal. Meanwhile, the March real estate data for Vancouver has just dropped, and we’re breaking down all the key metrics—from collapsing sales volumes to rising inventory to surprisingly resilient home prices—and analyzing what all this means for home values for the spring 2025 market.

Let’s talk inflation. March came in hot at 2.6%, a big jump from the previous month’s 1.9%, and far above expectations. Mortgage interest costs have fallen again for the 18th straight month, but inflation is now at a seven-month high, forcing the Bank of Canada into a tightening corner. And behind the scenes, 45% of businesses expect to raise prices more than 5% this year—double what it was just six months ago. While tariffs may warrant easing, inflation is pushing back hard, and markets no longer expect a rate cut in April. Meanwhile, GDP rose again—up 0.4% in January after a 0.3% climb in December—led by energy and mining. While the headline looks positive, remember: per capita GDP has been in decline for over two years. The BOC may take these numbers at face value, but it’s a fragile recovery at best.

South of the border, the U.S. Fed held its rate at 4.5% last month, with possible cuts later this year. But Powell made it clear: if inflation stays sticky, high rates could persist. Their GDP forecast was revised down and inflation up. The takeaway? If the Fed cuts, Canada could follow—especially as our economic risks grow and global trade uncertainty lingers. In the mortgage world, renewals are surging—up 110% year-over-year—and projections vary widely. BMO sees rates at 2% by end of 2026, while Scotia sees no cuts until 2027. The big banks don’t agree, but they’re all aligned on one thing: no hikes are coming. That’s welcome news for those riding variable rates or planning their next move.

New housing supply is in freefall. National housing starts dropped 4% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, but BC is the epicenter of the downturn: starts plunged 22% just last month and are down 32% from last year. In Vancouver alone, they’re off by 18%. This comes at a time when building permits are at rock bottom—meaning even fewer homes will be built in the years to come. While inventory is high now, the longer-term risk is a devastating shortage. Just look at the national data going back to 1972: while population growth has doubled, housing completions have actually declined. CMHC now estimates we’ll be short 3.5 million homes by 2030. Add affordability and suitability issues, and we’re heading toward a full-blown housing crisis.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

He holds a master’s degree in urban and regional planning from Queen's University, and began his career in the private sector, serving a variety of private and public sector clients as a consultant with Urban Strategies in Toronto. Josh’s private sector experience also includes leading planning and approvals for Alpine Park, a progressive n

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

But what does this mean for Canadians, especially those with mortgages renewing this year? We ran the numbers: a homeowner who took out an $800,000 mortgage in 2020 at 1.8% will see their monthly payments jump by $927 if they renew today at a 4.39% fixed rate. That’s still 32% higher than what they were paying four years ago. While rate cuts are happening, they’re nowhere near enough to ease the burden of higher borrowing costs—at least not yet. On the inflation front, early warning signs are flashing yellow. The Raw Materials Price Index is up 11% year-over-year, the highest jump since 2022. The Industrial Product Price Index is also rising, historically a leading indicator of core inflation. And with 20% of businesses planning to hike prices by 6% or more this year, it’s possible that inflation could start creeping back up by Q4 2025. If that happens, we may not see as many rate cuts as the market is pricing in.

The uncertainty around tariffs is also crushing consumer and business confidence. The Index of Consumer Confidence has now dropped below Global Financial Crisis levels, meaning people feel worse about the economy today than they did in 2008. And with nearly 63% of Canadians saying it’s a bad time to make a major purchase, spending is slowing—bad news for businesses already holding back on investments. This hesitation is showing up in BC real estate sales as well. In February, home sales in BC fell 9.7% year-over-year, with average prices down 2.4%. The total sales volume hit just $4.8 billion, an 11.8% decline compared to last year. This is a major shift from the red-hot market we saw in 2021 and 2022, proving that even with rate cuts, buyers remain cautious.

Lastly, we take a deep dive into the growing wealth divide. Despite economic uncertainty, household net worth in Canada surged 1.4% in Q4 2024, adding $236.3 billion in wealth and bringing the total to $17.5 trillion. Over the past year, wealth climbed by 7.3%, even after adjusting for inflation. But here’s the catch: the top 20% of households now control 68% of all financial assets, a share that continues to grow. With interest rates coming down, asset holders will benefit the most, widening the wealth gap even further.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

While headline GDP growth showed a stronger-than-expected 2.6% annualized gain in Q4, the real story lies in GDP per capita, which has declined for two straight years, confirming that Canada has been in a per capita recession for over 24 months. Job vacancies have also plunged to their lowest levels since 2017, leaving workers with the worst job prospects in seven years. Despite what the official numbers suggest, the economic reality is pointing towards a prolonged slowdown that could further weaken real estate demand. One of the few bright spots for homeowners is the declining 5-year bond yield, which has hit a three-year low of 2.6%. This drop has made mortgage rates more attractive for the more than 50% of borrowers set to renew in the next two years. However, with tariffs likely to slow GDP growth even further, it’s increasingly likely that the Bank of Canada will be forced to cut interest rates, possibly as soon as this spring, especially with an election on the horizon.

The latest February 2025 real estate stats for Vancouver confirm shifting market dynamics. Total sales came in at 1,815, down 12% year-over-year and 29% below the 10-year average. This is particularly notable because since October, sales had been higher than 2023 levels each month—until February, when the trend reversed. The level of uncertainty created by tariff threats and economic instability has pushed buyers to the sidelines, and now that tariffs are in place, it appears the spring market may not materialize in the usual way.

New listings rose 11% year-over-year to 5,066, marking a 12% increase above the 10-year average. However, February listings were actually lower than January, an unusual occurrence only seen six times in the past decade. The standout statistic here is condo inventory—February saw the highest number of condo listings ever recorded for the month, following a record-breaking January. This surge suggests a shift in buyer preference away from high-density living, as well as a growing supply of purpose-built rental housing, which is altering demand patterns. Inventory levels remain a key story, with active listings rising 32% year-over-year to 12,350, sitting 36% above the 10-year average. This places inventory at its highest February level in over a decade, though still below the 2012 peak of 14,875. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 15%, marking the 10th consecutive month in a balanced market, with detached homes at 10%, townhomes at 20%, and condos at 17%.

One thing is clear—Vancouver real estate is at a pivotal moment, and how policymakers respond in the coming months could shape the market for years to come.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

A record-low number of new projects launched in January, raising questions about whether developers will be on pause for most of 2025. We explore whether rising development charges, lengthy permit processes, and shifting buyer demand are keeping new housing from coming to market. These same issues have been major inhibitors to new supply in B.C., and we compare how government policies in both provinces are shaping future development. Additionally, with 50%+ of Canadian mortgages set to renew at significantly higher rates over the next two years, we assess how this looming financial pressure could impact both homeowners and investors. Are investors checking out of the market entirely, or are new opportunities emerging in the current landscape?

Beyond the immediate slowdown, we also look at long-term structural issues. Toronto, much like Vancouver, has long been criticized for its lack of "Missing Middle" housing—smaller, multi-unit developments that could provide a bridge between high-rise condos and detached homes. We ask Tom whether Toronto has made any meaningful progress in addressing this gap and if there are solutions that could help increase supply. We also touch on the contentious topic of Ontario’s Greenbelt—could opening up more land be a solution to affordability and supply issues, or would it create more problems? Additionally, with new tariffs looming over the construction industry, we analyze the potential ripple effects on housing costs and supply.

Despite the uncertainties, market shifts often bring opportunities. Tom shares insights on where buyers and investors should be looking right now, what strategies are working for those still active in the market, and what potential silver linings could emerge from this downturn. And while there are real concerns about the future, there are also reasons for optimism. We wrap up by asking Tom what excites and scares him most about the future of Toronto real estate and how the market might evolve over the next few years. If you're looking for a deep dive into one of Canada’s most talked-about real estate markets—and how it compares to Vancouver—this is an episode you won’t want to miss!

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Despite political rhetoric about increasing housing supply, overall housing starts have dropped 19% since their peak in 2021, now sitting at 239,000. However, rental unit construction is surging—up 44% year-over-year—comprising nearly half of all new starts. A record-breaking 144,000 rental units are currently in development, which is already having a profound effect on the market.

Rental rates, which had been rising for 38 months straight, have now fallen for four consecutive months, with national averages dropping from a peak of $2,196 in January 2024 to $2,100 today. Shared accommodation listings have surged 42% year-over-year, with rates declining 7.6%, signaling a shifting dynamic in the rental market.

While rental construction is booming, single-family home (SFH) completions tell a different story. In January 2025, only 3,800 SFHs were completed—the lowest monthly total since 1997. This ongoing supply crunch suggests that SFH prices may hold firm, even as the condo market weakens.

Inflation in Canada remains relatively stable, sitting at 1.9% in January, marking six consecutive months at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. However, the vast majority of inflation—1.3%—is being driven by shelter costs. Mortgage interest costs, a key driver of inflation, have been slowing, with the most recent increase at just 0.2%, the weakest since April 2022.

Employment Insurance (EI) claims are rising at an alarming rate. Nationally, claims increased 14% year-over-year, from 245,000 to over 280,000, while Ontario saw a 29% jump, from 76,000 to 98,000. These numbers suggest weakening economic conditions, which could drag down GDP growth in the months ahead.

On the mortgage front, December saw a staggering 90% year-over-year surge in mortgage originations, largely due to renewals. Many homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates five years ago are now facing a 35% payment shock, putting additional strain on household finances.

At the same time, housing inventory is surging. January saw an 11% month-over-month increase in new listings—the largest ever recorded. BC led the way with a staggering 29% increase. Pre-sale condo inventory in Greater Vancouver has nearly doubled from 7,000 to 12,000 units, pushing total available homes in the region above 25,000. This supply surge is making price increases unlikely in the near term.

February data indicates a shift in market momentum. After months of year-over-year sales growth, February saw a 12% annual decline in sales activity. Prices are also softening, with median home prices in Greater Vancouver dropping $20,000 to $900,000—a 10% decline from peak values.

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Buyers, however, are staying on the sidelines, hesitant amid economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and the looming threat of tariffs, setting up a volatile 2025 housing market. In this episode, we break down these trends and explore whether demand will rise enough to absorb the flood of new listings—or if prices will continue their downward trajectory.

At the same time, Canada’s job market data is sending mixed signals. While official reports show strong job growth, deeper payroll data indicates three consecutive months of job losses, raising questions about the real state of employment. Long-term unemployment has doubled, permanent layoffs are climbing, and wage growth is slowing—all signs that economic hardship may be more widespread than headline numbers suggest. Historically, unemployment and mortgage arrears have moved in lockstep, and while arrears remain low for now, any continued weakness in employment could push more homeowners into financial distress, impacting the market further.

Despite today’s inventory surge, new home construction is already slowing dramatically, which could set the stage for a supply crunch in the coming years. In Toronto, new housing starts just hit a 30-year low, with only 51 new units (not buildings—units) started last month. In Vancouver, new home construction declined by 3% in December, the largest drop in three years, and detached home building permits are at their lowest level in 45 years. While today’s market feels oversaturated, this drastic slowdown in development could lead to a severe housing shortage in 2026–2027, potentially driving prices back up just as they are starting to cool.

With consumer insolvencies rising, job data inconsistencies, and supply declining in the long run, we could be witnessing the beginning of a major market shift. Will today's housing surplus be short-lived? Could government policies or economic conditions unexpectedly swing the pendulum in the opposite direction? Tune in as we break down the latest trends, challenge the mainstream narrative, and explore what’s next for Canada’s real estate market.

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The market is facing some serious headwinds and the threat of Tariffs is ever present. The potential for a 25% Tariff on key building materials like windows, drywall, and appliances would drive up construction costs, making new homes even more expensive. While a temporary 30-day pause has been put in place, tariffs could still take effect at any time. Earlier this week, when they seemed imminent, BMO’s chief economist projected 0% GDP growth for 2025, 8% unemployment, and aggressive interest rate cuts down to 1.5%. The Canadian dollar briefly hit a 23-year low, and the 5-year bond yield dropped to a 30-month low, signaling lower mortgage rates ahead. In fact, 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already available at 3.89%, a sharp decline from last year.

The BC Real Estate Association has painted a stark picture of what could happen if tariffs are imposed and Canada retaliates. They predict home sales could drop 30%, while active listings could rise 40%, leading to a more prolonged buyer’s market. Mortgage rates could climb to 6% by 2026, and while prices are still expected to rise, they would increase at a much slower pace. With so much uncertainty, many buyers and sellers may wait on the sidelines, similar to the early days of the pandemic.

At the same time, Vancouver’s housing market is seeing some surprising shifts. January sales were up 9% year-over-year, marking the strongest January in three years. But new listings surged 46% compared to last year, reaching one of the highest January levels on record. Inventory is climbing quickly, hitting 11,100 active listings, a 33% increase over last year. The last time inventory was this high in January was 2019, a year when prices declined slightly. The sales-to-active listings ratio now sits at 14%, confirming that we remain in a balanced market, but momentum is shifting.

Perhaps the biggest red flag is price movement. While the HPI benchmark price showed a slight increase in January, more immediate indicators tell a different story. Median prices dropped by $80,000, the largest single-month decline in 18 months, while average prices fell by $70,000, hitting their lowest level in two years. These sharp drops suggest that sellers may be adjusting expectations, while buyers hesitate to make moves in an uncertain environment.

So, what’s next? With sellers eager to offload properties and buyers waiting for more clarity on tariffs and interest rates, the spring market could be weaker than expected. Early February sales trends suggest a slower start, but as we approach the peak season, things could shift. Will prices stabilize, or are we heading into a prolonged downturn? Tune in as we analyze what’s happening in Vancouver real estate and where the market might be headed next.

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Ontario’s slight decline, however, masks significant issues in the pre-construction condo market, particularly in Toronto, where sales hit a 28-year low in 2024. Newly constructed condos flooded the market, driving prices down by 10-15% or more in some cases as sellers undercut each other. Yet, when viewed at the provincial level, Ontario’s overall housing market showed resilience, with a decline that remains manageable by most standards.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to ease, as the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in at 1.8%—the second-lowest reading in 46 months. This marks a slight decline from December’s 1.9% and the 16th consecutive month of cooling mortgage interest costs, which dropped from 13.2% to 11.6%. Rent inflation also eased, falling from 7.7% to 7.1%. 

Inflation has now remained within the Bank of Canada’s target range for 12 straight months, with the broader CPI reading excluding mortgage interest costs coming in at just 1.3%. These metrics, coupled with a strong employment report, suggest the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at its next meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 0.25% cut that would bring the overnight rate to 3%, its lowest level since August 2022.

This data reinforces the importance of understanding how hyper-local real estate markets operate. For instance, in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant East neighborhood, half duplexes reached their highest prices ever in 2024, climbing 7% above the 2022 peak. By contrast, condos in the same area are 3% below their peak prices, and detached homes are down 9%. These variations emphasize the need for precise, localized market insights when making real estate decisions.

Next week we have Mr. Doug Porter, the Chief Economist for the Bank of Montreal coming back on the show to discuss how he sees the Canadian economy shaping up for 2025

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A much stronger-than-expected jobs report has thrown a wrench into predictions for interest rate cuts, potentially keeping the Bank of Canada on hold this January. With Canada adding 91,000 jobs last month, (far exceeding expectations) compounded by labour market strength is complicating the case for lower rates. However, not all is as it seems: 62,000 of those jobs went to workers over 55, and a significant portion came from public sector growth (44%!). We break down what this could mean for mortgage rates and why the 5-year bond yield is already climbing.

In Vancouver, affordability continues to be a challenge as recent policies are expected to push home prices higher. On the flip side, there’s good news out of Burnaby, where one of the first multiplex building permits has been approved. The timeline, fees, and offsite costs surprised even the developer—and might give hope to those exploring small-scale development opportunities.

We also tackle the ongoing affordability crisis, exploring how the ban on natural gas in new construction and new net-zero mandates are inflating the cost of homes. For example, a fourplex project now have an additional $150,000 for electrical upgrades, adding roughly $40,000 to the cost of each unit. These policy changes are a stark reminder to “watch what they do, not what they say” when it comes to government claims about building affordable housing.

Meanwhile, mortgage arrears are also starting to climb, with delinquency rates hitting a 9-year high in Toronto. Yet even as the headlines grab attention, the data tells a different story—arrears remain well below pre-pandemic levels, and the overall risk of panic is low. However, with 50% of mortgage holders set to face higher payments over the next two years (in excess of 30+%), it’s clear that financial strain is building for many Canadians.

We also take a closer look at the nearly 30% of homes listed for sale that are vacant. Are they former Airbnbs, second homes, or properties listed to dodge the vacancy tax? It’s a fascinating trend that raises more questions about the current state of the market.

And to cap it off, we’re excited to showcase a stunning family home on Vancouver’s prestigious Golden Mile in Kitsilano. Located on West 1st Avenue, this property boasts breathtaking ocean views, over $1 million in renovations, and one of the most luxurious primary suites you’ll ever see. Don’t miss this incredible listing—check it out at www.3262W1st.com

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On the employment front, the unemployment rate, currently at 6.8%, is projected to remain somewhat stable within the 6.5%-8% range. While population growth could create new job opportunities, sensitive sectors like construction and tech may see some challenges. Inflation, sitting at 1.9%, is anticipated to close the year between 2.0% and 2.5%, assuming stable monetary policy and limited disruptions in energy prices or supply chains. This outcome largely depends on US trade policy which has yet to be sorted out. 

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate, currently at 3.25%, is forecasted to ease slightly by year-end if inflation targets maintain and economic growth softens. In tandem, mortgage rates are likely to decline as well, with variable & potentially fixed rates dropping too. Despite these adjustments, Canada’s mortgage arrears rate, historically low at around 0.15%, may see a slight uptick as households adjust to higher payments on renewals.

Turning to real estate, we predict a steady recovery in sales volumes, with activity returning near the 10-year average, barring any significant rate fluctuations. The sales-to-active listings ratio which is currently signaling balanced market conditions may tick up into a Seller's market with more interest rate fluctuations. Inventory levels may see modest growth too as many who did not sell in 2024 will return to the market to try again. In the pre-sale market, developers are projected to cautiously release new projects, reflecting a gradual increase in buyer confidence. After an 8% decline in rental rates during 2024, the rental market is expected to stabilize though this will largely depend on immigration levels and the overall performance of the economy.

In this episode we also highlight the top markets poised to outperform the Greater Vancouver region in 2025. We look at Surrey and Langley as they continue to attract buyers with affordability and infrastructure investment among a list of other locations that we strongly endorse. Tune in and find out which areas those are!

This episode provides a comprehensive roadmap for navigating the opportunities and challenges of Vancouver’s 2025 real estate market. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, these insights will help you stay ahead in a shifting landscape. Tune in to learn more about what to expect and how to make informed decisions in the year ahead or book a one-on-one exploratory call with us and we'll help guide you through this recovering marketplace.

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Today, we’re unpacking December’s freshly released market stats, analyzing how 2024 wrapped up, and exploring what’s on the horizon for 2025.

This is a special double-header episode where we’ll revisit our 2024 real estate predictions to see where we were right, where we missed the mark, and what new trends are setting up 2025 to be a dynamic and potentially surprising year.

Highlights from December reveal some fascinating trends. Sales reached their highest December total in three years, up 32% year-over-year, though still 15% below the 10-year average. New listings surged 26% year-over-year, marking the highest December total in three years. Inventory remains elevated, with December’s levels the highest since 2018 and 25% above the 10-year average•

The Sales-to-active ratios show balanced market conditions for the eighth consecutive month, with townhomes and apartments pushing us into the upper limits of a Balanced market.

In terms of pricing, Vancouver’s housing market defied more pessimistic predictions, with all three price metrics—HPI, median, and average prices—rising year-over-year. Notably, median prices climbed 4.5%, just 2% shy of the all-time high.

As we dive deeper, we’ll also compare Vancouver’s performance to Toronto’s market and national trends. While BC lagged behind the national average home price increase of 7.4%, it still holds the title for the highest average home price in Canada. Tune into the rest of the episode and find out where we right and where we went wrong as we review the predictions we made for 2024.

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 Looking back, 2024 was a year of housing promises from all levels of government. Initiatives like Bill 44, which aimed to densify single-family neighborhoods, faced hurdles like municipal pushback and high taxes & community contribution fees. The federal Housing Accelerator Fund & Trudeau promised over 3.9 million homes but has yet to deliver any completed builds. 

 CMHC raised its mortgage insurance limit to $1.5 million, which helps buyers access more expensive homes but doesn’t address affordability. Meanwhile, policies like the anti-flipping tax are unlikely to curb rising prices but may reduce the supply of renovated properties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

 The market also saw significant struggles, with pre-sale projects shelved, developer insolvencies up 36% year-over-year, and building permits near all-time lows. On the brighter side, 2024 marked the first-interest rate cuts in over four years, which has started to provide relief for buyers and developers alike. 

 
 Inflation remained below 3% throughout the year, though maintaining this stability amidst global uncertainty will be a challenge, particularly with political shifts like the return of Trump and Canada’s federal leadership changes. The Airbnb ban disrupted short-term rental markets, while stricter renters’ policies continued to deter smaller investors, limiting rental supply.

 
 As we head into 2025, the focus must shift from adding more policies to addressing the root issue: increasing housing supply by removing red tape and, ideally, reducing government fees and taxes. 

 Thank you again for helping us reach 5,000 subscribers, and we look forward to continuing this journey with you. Join us next week for a recap of December’s stats, and don’t miss our 2025 predictions episode on January 11. 

 
 Happy Holidays, and we’ll see you in 2025!

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Rate cuts are back on the table, with the Bank of Canada expected to lower rates incrementally in early 2025, while variable-rate mortgages are regaining popularity. South of the border, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25%, signaling caution amid strong GDP and persistent inflation. 

The move widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. rates to levels not seen since 1997, weakening the Canadian dollar to under $0.70 USD and highlighting diverging economic paths between the two nations.

Canada’s labor market continues to struggle, with unemployment hitting a seven-year high and job vacancies plunging to a four-year low. Companies are hiring fewer workers, creating a troubling imbalance with less than one job available for every two job seekers. 

This dynamic reflects a worsening economic downturn, with nearly 20% of unemployed Canadians classified as long-term unemployed. The construction sector, a key pillar of the workforce, faces additional challenges as housing starts have declined significantly over the year, despite a recent monthly uptick. 

Large-scale building permits, which indicate future supply, are also falling sharply, particularly in Ontario. These trends raise concerns about the future of housing affordability and employment in an already strained economy.

Compounding these issues is political upheaval, with both Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Housing Minister Sean Fraser stepping down. Freeland’s tenure ended amidst criticism of Canada’s record deficits, with the Fall Economic Statement revealing a $62 billion shortfall—50% over budget. 

Meanwhile, B.C.’s 2024-2025 budget projects a staggering $9.4 billion deficit, the largest in provincial history. Fraser, who oversaw record immigration levels that strained housing and healthcare systems, has faced sharp criticism for his policies’ long-term impacts. With mounting government debt, declining investor confidence, and slowing immigration, the outlook for 2025 appears unpredictable. 

This perfect storm of economic uncertainty, housing struggles, and political shakeups underscores the challenges and potential opportunities that Canada faces heading into the new year.

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However, questions remain about whether these rate cuts are sufficient to revive the economy and ease challenges for mortgage holders renewing at higher rates in 2025. Despite the BoC’s confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target and avoiding a recession next year, rising insolvencies and declining consumer confidence suggest significant financial strain for many Canadians.

Economic indicators paint a concerning picture. Unemployment has risen to 6.8%, the highest in eight years outside of the pandemic, with Toronto particularly hard hit, where the jobless rate has surged by 47% year-over-year. 

Consumer and business insolvencies are climbing sharply, especially in Ontario, which saw its highest single-month insolvency filings in 14 years. Additionally, consumer confidence has experienced its steepest decline since mid-2022, casting doubt on near-term economic resilience compounded by reduced immigration forecasts, slowing housing starts, and looming risks from potential U.S. tariffs.

The housing market remains a mixed bag. Toronto sales rose 39% year-over-year in November, with prices showing a slight monthly increase, but pre-construction sales have collapsed by 84% over the past year. Nationally, arrears rates have remained stable at 0.2%, supported by significant home equity gains over the past five years. 

This equity provides homeowners with options, such as re-amortizing mortgages or downsizing, to mitigate financial pressures. Meanwhile, affordability is improving incrementally. Monthly mortgage payments for a typical Vancouver home have dropped 19% from 2023 peaks, and rental rates are also declining, signaling some relief for buyers and renters alike.

Looking ahead, the BoC is expected to implement further rate cuts in early 2025, with a potential pause to assess the economy's state. However, with unemployment rising, consumer spending weakening, and housing construction slowing, the path to recovery remains uncertain. 

While rate cuts may provide temporary relief, deeper structural challenges in Canada’s economy suggest a long road ahead.

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The struggles extend beyond prospective homebuyers. Developers are contending with soaring construction costs, skyrocketing municipal development fees, and high interest rates, creating a hostile environment for new projects. These challenges have led to a surge in shelved developments, land sell-offs, and insolvencies within the sector. Projects like "The Riv," a 37-story condo tower planned for Toronto, have been canceled due to insufficient buyer interest and unsustainable pre-sale thresholds. These setbacks highlight a looming crisis in housing supply that could worsen the affordability challenges Canadians already face.

Adding to the complexity, Oxford Economics projects that housing affordability will not return to reasonable levels until 2035. Their Housing Affordability Index, which evaluates factors like home prices, wages, and interest rates, reveals that homes were affordable between 2005 and 2020 but became increasingly unaffordable, peaking in 2023. While affordability has started to improve slightly, it remains far from sustainable. For many Canadians, the prospect of waiting more than a decade for improved affordability is daunting, particularly in historically expensive markets like Vancouver and Toronto.

Recent data from StatsCan challenges the narrative that home flipping significantly contributes to housing unaffordability. In British Columbia, only 3% of properties were flipped within a year in 2021, with minimal impact on overall market prices. While flipping can influence price volatility in overheated markets, its role in Canada’s broader housing crisis appears overstated. The core issue remains the chronic mismatch between housing supply and demand.

This episode also explores the November Greater Vancouver real estate statistics, offering insights into market trends. While total sales decreased by 20% month-over-month, they were up 29% year-over-year, signaling a potential shift. Inventory dropped to a seven-month low, though it remains 26% above the ten-year average. Despite elevated inventory levels, prices in some categories have remained stable or even increased, reflecting the market’s resilience.

Looking ahead, the episode discusses the Bank of Canada’s upcoming December meeting and the potential implications of a rate cut. While a reduction could stimulate an early spring market in 2025, questions persist about whether it would genuinely address affordability or merely fuel demand without resolving supply constraints.

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However, alongside increased savings, Canadians are grappling with mounting debt and insolvencies. Credit card balances reached a record $110 billion in September, growing 9.7% year-over-year. Consumer insolvencies climbed 8.8% nationally and surged 18.4% in Ontario, returning to pre-pandemic levels. While not yet alarming, the pace of insolvency growth could escalate to financial crisis levels by 2025 if left unchecked. Meanwhile, the cost of housing remains a significant burden. Monthly mortgage payments for the typical home dropped slightly in October but remain up 90% compared to 2021 levels, with the average payment now sitting at $2,975—nearly double what it was just three years ago.

In the mortgage market, both fixed and variable rates have seen modest declines from their 2024 peaks. Fixed rates currently average 4.4%, while variable rates are at 4.9%. These rates are expected to fall further, with markets projecting a bottom of 3% by mid-2025 as the Bank of Canada faces pressures from slowing inflation, weaker GDP, and economic risks such as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs. These tariffs could have a 2–3% negative impact on Canada’s GDP, potentially driving the central bank to accelerate rate cuts to support the economy. Additionally, the rental market is poised to stabilize further, with new supply and slower population growth expected to ease inflationary pressures in housing over the next two years.

Regionally, Vancouver’s housing market continues to gain slight momentum. November sales are projected to rise 29% year-over-year, bringing activity closer to long-term 10-year averages. New listings, however, increased by just 10%, creating an environment where limited supply is supporting prices. Median prices climbed for the second month in a row, rising slightly by $5,000, while average prices jumped by $34,000. This contrasts sharply with the GTA, where new condo sales were down 91% compared to decade averages, and starts are forecasted to hit 20-year lows by 2025. While Toronto’s challenges weigh on the broader market, Vancouver’s resilience offers a glimmer of hope for Canadian real estate. Full November statistics will provide further clarity in the week ahead.

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The Bank faces a delicate balancing act with inflation on target, GDP revisions upward, and the U.S. economy remaining strong. Projections suggest we’ll see modest rate cuts early in the year, stabilizing at an overnight rate of 3% by March. Homeowners renewing mortgages in 2025 should plan accordingly, as this will still translate to higher payments compared to the historically low rates of recent years.

On the international front, the potential effects of a Trump presidency loom large over Canada’s economy. Historically, Canada has avoided recessions during periods of U.S. growth exceeding 2%, suggesting some economic resilience. Trump’s focus on energy infrastructure could revive projects like the Keystone XL pipeline, boosting Alberta’s energy sector, while a weak Canadian dollar might attract foreign investment into commercial real estate. Additionally, changes in U.S. immigration policy could prompt an influx of skilled workers into Canada, potentially offsetting recent adjustments to our own immigration targets.

Closer to home, the housing market is facing mounting pressures. Despite ambitious governmental promises to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years, housing starts have dropped sharply—down 12% nationwide and 30% in British Columbia year-over-year. 

Compounding this, delayed projects and developer insolvencies, like THIND’s high-profile collapse, are exacerbating the supply crisis. THIND’s troubles have halted thousands of planned units, underscoring the strain that rising interest rates are placing on even established developers. This ongoing shortfall in housing starts signals a grim future, with significant shortages expected in completions by 2027-2029.

Mortgage renewals are another pressing issue, with 23% of all existing Canadian mortgages set to renew in 2025 and 31% in 2026—above the typical annual renewal rate of 20%. For Vancouver homeowners who locked in rates as low as 2% in 2020, the shift to today’s rates could mean monthly payment increases of nearly 30%. However, the average 21% appreciation in home values over the past five years offers a potential safety net, allowing homeowners to downsize while preserving some equity and solvency.

From inflation and interest rates to housing starts and developer challenges, this episode covers the critical issues shaping Canada’s real estate future. Stay tuned as we break down what it all means for you, whether you’re a homeowner, investor, or industry professional.

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Second, the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs looms large. Should tariffs reach 10-20%, they could shrink Canada’s GDP by up to 2%, reduce foreign investment, and deepen economic challenges. While lower growth may prompt further rate cuts, boosting housing sales and construction, broader economic instability could counteract these benefits.

Meanwhile, rental rates have begun to drop, with a 1.2% national year-over-year decline—the first in years. Vancouver and Toronto saw the steepest drops, at 8.4% and 9.2%, respectively. This shift is driven by record condo completions, slowing population growth, and renters reaching affordability limits. Although rents remain 29% higher than three years ago, the decline provides some relief to tenants.

In the U.S., inflation ticked up to 2.6% in October, its first monthly increase in six months, prompting markets to price in rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada this December. Lower borrowing costs could invigorate the housing market, setting up for a strong spring in 2025.

October also saw a surge in national home sales, with Toronto leading the way with a 44% year-over-year increase. This spike is largely attributed to pent-up demand and renewed consumer confidence driven by expectations of lower interest rates. Early November data suggests this trend is continuing, pointing to a robust spring market ahead.

Finally, a potential “mortgage war” is brewing as 50% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew in the next two years. With new rules allowing borrowers to switch lenders without requalifying, competition among banks is expected to intensify. Savvy homeowners stand to save tens of thousands of dollars by shopping for better rates, making it crucial to prepare for these opportunities now.

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The recent U.S. election results, with Trump securing the presidency, bring significant economic implications for Canada. Key among these is the potential for new tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S., which could add $30 billion in economic costs, with Canadian manufacturing and consumer prices bearing the brunt. This inflationary impact could strain housing affordability, as higher import costs would drive up construction expenses, potentially limiting new builds and pushing home prices higher. To counter these risks, the Bank of Canada might reduce rates further, which could increase Canadian homebuyers' purchasing power but also encourage some to enter the market amid potential economic downturns. 

Affordable housing targets in Canadian cities like Ottawa and West Vancouver face substantial setbacks due to escalating construction costs and financing issues. Ottawa has fallen short of its 500-unit annual goal every year since 2020, citing a funding gap of $931 million and a 150% increase in construction costs since 2021. West Vancouver also anticipates falling short of provincial targets, estimating that only 58 affordable units will be built in 2024—well below the province’s target of 220. This affordability gap points to ongoing challenges for both public and private sectors, with limited options for expanding affordable housing despite rising demand.

The “17 Villages” initiative in Vancouver seeks to create a gentler approach to housing density, adding low-rise residential buildings, townhouses, and multiplexes within 400 meters of established retail streets. This feels like a European-inspired model that will anchor neighborhoods with walkable retail and community amenities, allowing young professionals and families to stay in these areas at potentially lower costs. Unlike high-rise developments, these “villages” aim to enhance neighborhood character, create small business opportunities, and offer diverse housing options without dramatically altering community aesthetics.

Touching on the October stats, Vancouver’s real estate inventory fell by 7% month-over-month to a five-month low but remains 25% higher than last October and 26% above the 10-year average. With over 5,400 new listings—a 17% annual increase—the market has seen an influx of choices for buyers, while inventory is the highest for October since 2014. The sales-to-active listings ratio rose back to 19%, with townhomes and apartments now moving into seller’s market territory. Detached homes saw a slight uptick in demand, but overall, the market remains balanced, favoring neither buyers nor sellers strongly.

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While these rate cuts may offer mortgage relief, they’re also weakening the Canadian dollar, which has hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing imported inflation as time goes on. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP has remained stagnant, with annual growth forecasts now below 1%, well below the anticipated 2.8%. This slower growth could prompt further rate cuts as the Bank seeks to stimulate the economy.

Employment trends are also concerning, especially among young men, with unemployment for this demographic rising sharply, indicating possible downward pressure on inflation. We touch on declining sales in manufacturing and a troubling inventory-to-sales ratio that's been further emphasized by the challenges facing Canada’s economy.

Housing offers a mixed picture: as mortgage payments drop and rates fall, consumer confidence is on the move up. Sales volumes are expected to increase next year by 10%-20%, but the government’s recent immigration cuts could also reduce that demand, especially for rentals. The new targets project significant reductions in Canada’s temporary resident population, potentially leading to Canada’s first-ever years of negative population growth, impacting GDP, tax revenues, and the housing sector's stability. This would be a first for Canada after non-permanent residents hit an all-time high of 3 million people. 

The Vancouver housing market stands to be directly affected. Dropping interest rates may ease some home-buying pressures, but declining immigration and job losses in construction and housing services could lead to a long-term housing shortage and potential tax increases as governments try to offset reduced revenues. For buyers and renters alike, this evolving economic landscape could spell both opportunities and challenges, making it a crucial topic for those involved in Vancouver real estate.

Also, we are welcoming your questions!! With these complex dynamics at play, what questions do you have about the market or where you find yourself today? Message us directly or post them in the comment section below, and we’ll provide informed insights in next week’s episode!

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What’s striking is that this inflation print came in below market expectations of 1.8%, significantly reshaping interest rate forecasts. Analysts are now predicting a 70% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut at the BoC’s meeting on Wednesday, with a further 25 bps reduction anticipated for December. If this scenario unfolds, the overnight rate could end 2024 at 3.5%, and markets expect it to drop to 2.5% by October 2025. Such a drastic forecast has led many mortgage brokers to advise clients to consider variable-rate mortgages, anticipating a steady decline in rates over the coming year.

At present, the BoC’s overnight rate stands at 4.25%, about 150-200 basis points above what is considered neutral. Given the state of inflation and a rising unemployment rate, there seems to be little reason for the BoC to delay a rate cut on Wednesday. This could also alleviate some of the pressure on Canada’s bond market which has been feeling the strain from high rates, though the Canadian dollar will be the sacrificial lamb.  

Housing starts in Canada have taken a significant hit, dropping 16% year-over-year (y/y). In Vancouver, this trend is even more pronounced, with a 23% decline in year-to-date housing starts. Toronto fares even worse, with condo starts down by 70% y/y, marking a three-year low. With a rolling 12-month condo pre-sale figure of just 6,000 units—an all-time low—developers are pulling back hard on new construction. With construction costs still high and no immediate relief in sight, this reduction in supply is likely to exacerbate Canada’s already tight housing market in the long term.

Another worrying trend is the increasing number of business closures. Last month, Canada saw a 1% drop in active businesses, the largest month-over-month (m/m) decline since the pandemic. The number of active businesses fell from 938,000 to 929,000, with construction companies leading the exodus—643 construction businesses shut down in September alone. This points to a broader economic slowdown, particularly in the housing sector, which is reliant on steady construction activity. New business openings also hit a four-year low, signaling reduced optimism among entrepreneurs.

All eyes are now on the BoC’s rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation easing and housing construction slowing dramatically, a rate cut seems increasingly likely. However, businesses are still struggling, and new policies may be needed to stimulate growth and prevent further economic downturns. The BoC’s decision will set the tone for the remainder of 2024, and possibly 2025, as Canada navigates these uncertain times.

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After decades of underbuilding, BC finds itself facing a severe housing shortage, with estimates indicating a shortfall of hundreds of thousands of homes. The current party in power, the NDP, has attempted to address this issue through various initiatives, such as the Missing Middle Policy and Transit-Oriented Area (TOA) regulations. These measures aim to increase density by allowing for multiplex units on single-family lots and permitting high-rise developments up to 20 stories near transit hubs.

However, the path to achieving these goals is anything but straightforward. While the province has pushed these initiatives forward, many municipalities have been resistant. Cities like Langley, West Vancouver, and North Vancouver have outright rejected the Missing Middle reforms, opting to maintain lower density levels despite provincial pressure. Even in cities that have embraced the policy, such as Richmond and New Westminster, restrictive Floor Space Ratio (FSR) limits have made it economically unfeasible for developers to build larger multi-family homes, leaving the intended impact on housing supply minimal at best. 

Burnaby, on the other hand, has adopted the provincial rules and has positioned itself as a more builder-friendly environment. However, increased municipal fees have made margins razor-thin for developers, which dampens the enthusiasm for new projects. This lack of alignment between provincial aspirations and municipal realities has resulted in an unattractive building environment, hampering the overall effectiveness of these policies. 

To further complicate matters, the leader of the BC Conservative Party, John Rustad, has voiced strong opposition to the Missing Middle and TOAH reforms, labeling them as “crazy,” “authoritarian,” and “hardcore socialist.” He has vowed to repeal these initiatives if his party comes to power, which would potentially undo years of planning and hundreds of building permit applications that have been submitted to bring much-needed housing to the market.

In regulatory news, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced this week that it will be easing stress test requirements for homeowners looking to renew their mortgages. The new policy, which goes into effect on November 21st, allows homeowners to do a straight switch to a new lender without undergoing the stress test, provided they are not looking to extend their mortgage’s amortization period.

We finish up this weeks episode with a quick look into how the housing market performed in September as we tee up next weeks stats episode. 

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_________________________________

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ryan@thevancouverlife.com

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A closer look at the BOC's rate cut decision reveals that inflation has eased, with recent data showing inflation at a 40-month low. The central bank has reiterated its goal of bringing inflation down to 2%, and Governor Tiff Macklem’s dovish comments suggest that additional cuts are likely if economic data continues to support them. The financial markets have already priced in another 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a full reduction by December.

Interestingly, the BOC acknowledged the upward pressure on inflation from housing and shelter costs, even though national trends show rental rates and home prices have been falling for months. As these lagging indicators catch up, inflation is expected to ease further. Macklem also hinted that while inflation may drop, housing prices could begin to rise again as interest rates fall and market activity strengthens.

Bond markets have also responded to the recent rate cut, with the Canadian five-year bond dropping to an 18-month low of 2.84%, signaling that fixed mortgage rates could follow suit in the coming weeks. Additionally, contrary to expectations, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar following the cuts—a potential signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve might also be gearing up to reduce rates at their upcoming September meeting.

Turning to Vancouver's August real estate statistics, the market saw continued slow sales with a total of 1,896 transactions, marking a 17% year-over-year decline and a 23% drop from July. This represents the fourth consecutive month of falling sales, making August 2023 one of the weakest on record. 

The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 14%, down 3% from last month and marking the fifth monthly decline in a row. We use this metric to determine if we are in a Buyers or Sellers' market. Detached homes are seeing a ratio of just 9%, deep in buyers' market territory. Meanwhile, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) recorded its third consecutive monthly decline, down 0.2% month-over-month and 0.9% year-over-year, bringing the benchmark price to $1,195,900.

While the median price has fallen to $945,000 and the average price to $1,252,000—both back to January 2024 levels—the HPI remains a more stable indicator, smoothing out some of the month-to-month volatility.

As we head into Fall, the big question remains: will inventory continue to rise as sales volumes decrease, as seen after the previous rate cuts, or will the market stabilize? With 1,050 new listings and 205 sales recorded in the first two business days of September, the upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory for the rest of the year.

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We also tackle the highly anticipated rate cut expectations for September. Mychal shares BMO's forecast on the Bank of Canada's likely moves and discusses the potential impact of rate cuts in the U.S. on Canadian markets. This leads to a broader discussion on whether buyers and sellers should continue to wait for better rates or take action now.

With the economy facing challenges such as rising unemployment, slowing GDP, and recent changes to the capital gains tax, we discuss the increasing levels of arrears, defaults, and corporate insolvencies. Mychal provides valuable insights into how these economic shifts are affecting homeowners in Vancouver—whether they are restructuring their debt, finding ways to pay their mortgages, or, in some cases, being forced to sell.

As we look ahead, we delve into the debate between variable and fixed mortgage rates. Mychal shares what’s currently more popular among homeowners and offers his expert recommendation on which option might be best, considering the possibility of lower rates in the coming 18 months.

We also take a look at the pre-sale market, how to protect yourself against rising interest rates by getting a rate hold through the Bank of Montreal for up to 3 years to ensure rates don't surprise you upon completion. 

We round out the discussion with an exploration of whether Canada is on the brink of a recession and whether the Bank of Montreal expects us to fall into a recession or not what that could mean for the housing market.

Whether you're a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or simply interested in the latest economic trends, this episode is packed with actionable insights. Tune in to hear our discussion with Mychal Ferrera's expert advice and learn how to navigate the current market conditions.

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However, the market has since undergone significant changes. A surge in inventory, elevated rental rates, the banning of Airbnb in secondary properties, and recent modifications to residential tenancy laws have collectively reshaped the market dynamics. Keaton dives into the differences between what we are reading compared to his on-the-ground insights into these developments.

The discussion begins with a market overview, highlighting that while rental rates remain high, Vancouver and Ontario have seen a notable softening year over year. Despite this, Vancouver continues to be the most expensive rental market in Canada, with the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment down 8.4% sitting just over $2,750 a month and a two-bedroom down 6.4% from last year but still well above $3,650. 

The discussion explores what could be causing a drop in the rental market and whether this softening is a result of a recent surge in inventory, a rise in unemployment figures, or if it is influenced by broader government policy decisions.

The conversation then shifts to the impact of immigration on the rental market. With a record 1.2 million person year-over-year increase in Canada's population, primarily driven by non-permanent residents, we examine whether the current softening of rental rates is a temporary blip or indicative of a longer-term stabilization trend. Keaton shares his views on whether these immigration trends will continue to apply upward pressure on rental prices and inventory.

The episode also touches on the dynamics of the mortgage market, where rising mortgage originations and potentially lower carrying costs are discussed. The hosts question whether these factors might lead to a future decrease in rental rates or if available inventory levels will continue to play a more significant role in determining rent prices.

Lastly, and perhaps most interestingly we delve into a recent and controversial ruling by the Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) in Vancouver, which approved a 23.5% rent increase over the next two years for a local landlord. 

This decision has sparked widespread attention capturing more than 325,000 views in just a couple of days, and Keaton, who broke the story has been closely monitoring the situation and provides an in-depth analysis of the ruling and its potential implications for both landlords and tenants in Vancouver. 

Throughout the episode, you will gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving rental market and what these changes mean for property owners and renters alike.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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_________________________________

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_________________________________

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In the United States, inflation has eased from 3.3% to 3%, primarily due to lower consumer spending, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in September by 85.7%. The Federal Reserve has maintained a 5.5% rate for 12 months, a full 100 basis points higher than Canada’s current rate. As both countries trend towards lower inflation, the sentiment grows that inflation is under control, with a path to 2% inflation expected within a year, accompanied by gradual rate cuts potentially ending at 3% by late 2025.

However, the housing market’s health is nuanced. While mortgage originations are increasing, signaling a potential recovery, several key metrics still require careful consideration. In Canada, rental market dynamics are shifting significantly. The recent CPI print showed an 8.5% year-over-year increase in rent, though the month-over-month increase was the lowest in two years, influenced by a record number of rental completions. There are currently 140,000 rental units in the construction pipeline, expected to add 6% more rental stock nationally and 15% in British Columbia over the next two years. This surge in supply might alleviate high rental rates, but challenges persist as private investors shy away from rental investments due to new policies. For instance, Bosa recently halted two purpose-built rental towers due to financial unfeasibility driven by new amenity cost charges and revised development cost charges.

Housing starts have been declining steadily for three years, with new starts down 9% nationally in June to 241,000, below expectations of 255,000. Building permit applications also dropped 12% in May, indicating potential future supply constraints. In British Columbia, permits fell 53% month-over-month, partly due to a rush to secure favorable CMHC financing before regulatory changes.

Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. Mortgage originations rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, with annual growth at 3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming out in late 2023. Predicted future rate cuts could further support this recovery over the next 18 months. Fixed-rate mortgages, particularly 3 and 4-year terms, dominate new loans, accounting for 55% of all new mortgages.

As we approach the end of the month, preliminary sales data shows a balanced market for the second consecutive month, with slight declines in median and average home prices. Inventory levels and sales figures are stabilizing, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market. However, the overall economic environment remains complex, requiring ongoing monitoring of key metrics and trends.

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In Canada, inflation was slightly higher than expected last month at 2.9%, compared to the forecasted 2.6%. This discrepancy is largely attributed to a recent change in the composition of the CPI basket by Statistics Canada. Mortgage interest continues to contribute significantly to the inflation rate, accounting for 1.3% of the total 2.9%. With the rate cut cycle ongoing and the weight adjustments in the CPI basket, the upcoming announcement on July 24 could yield surprising results. Markets are currently anticipating rate cuts in September.

A new report from the Bank of Canada (BoC) indicates that the overnight rate has risen higher than expected due to misjudged transitory inflation and liquidity issues stemming from government borrowing. This has led to an increase in mortgage payments, which has reduced borrowers' overall consumption by 3% since 2022, with a forecasted increase to 5% by 2027. Mortgage payments have risen by an average of 9% since 2022 and are expected to double to 17% by 2027. This shift diverts funds from consumption to debt servicing. Personal accounts suggest these figures might be underestimations, with some experiencing over 60% increase in mortgage payments, heavily weighted towards interest.

Canada's employment situation is deteriorating, with a loss of 1,000 jobs in June, falling short of the expected 25,000 gain. This has pushed the unemployment rate to 6.4%, a 1.6% increase from post-pandemic lows, and the highest in seven years excluding the pandemic spike. The construction industry is getting hammered, with a 3% decline over three months. 99% of new jobs created in the past quarter have been part-time, and the employment rate has dropped to 61%, the lowest in over 20 years. Job vacancies have decreased significantly from 1 million in 2022 to 575,000, driven by rising business delinquencies, now at 1.5%.

Toronto's real estate market saw a 4.5% increase in home sales in June, but this still represents the lowest June sales in 24 years, with a 16% year-over-year decline and a 28% drop for condos. Despite expectations that rate cuts would rejuvenate the market, inventory levels have surged, up 67% year-over-year and 84% for condos, reaching a 14-year high. The market is flooded with new units, leading to falling condo prices. The monthly condo cash flow index has improved since late 2023 but remains negative, with average condos running a $1,000 monthly deficit.

Vancouver's active inventory surpassed 15,000 listings for the first time in five years, with expectations of reaching a 10-year high soon. Detached homes are leading this increase in inventory, despite record-low single-family home starts over the past 35 years. The condo segment is expected to see a spike in listings in the coming months due to new regulations affecting investment properties.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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